10:02
09:08 – I believe it is, as the blog writes, internal disagreements or partisans.
If you remember the video of two Ukrainians in a pit during a Russian attack, this is much more intense than that.
What it could be is the first video of a spontaneous retreat from Kherson, but if so, videos of queues of Russians dressed as rubber ducks will come soon.
What colorful targets this will be for aircraft, army aviation, partisans, and all the world’s artillery 🙂
11:04
This was not entirely unexpected, but now the pontoon bridge and the smaller unofficial pontoon bridges the Russians have tried/are trying to build are gone.
One must be really warmly grateful that the Russians sent their best units west of the Dnipro and have refused to see the battle as lost until it was too late.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3560799-ukraine-forces-destroy-enemy-crossing-across-dnipro-in-kherson-region.html
14:48
They have pushed in a lot on the western side, just under 30 BTGs, then there are probably units that have fortified the eastern bank, and then there are BTGs behind the southern front.
In the past month, they MAY have moved rear units to the eastern side of the Dnipro, but two days ago the Russians were planning further attacks in Kherson.
That is why I write 10k – 25k, it is difficult to estimate how many are on the right side 🙂
15:07
Have now seen three videos of what is said to be Ukrainian armor in Kherson on the move and it is T72s in good condition with night fighting equipment (I think, the round disk).
This leads me to believe that it is the newly equipped armored brigades participating now, 5th Tank and maybe also 17th Tank.
This is something new for this third offensive effort, the first time it was a mechanized battalion, the second time a lot of mechanized and possibly armor, but this time we have seen 3 videos within a day from an armored brigade.
If one may guess, they are filling up the armored brigades with mechanized units.
The night fighting equipment is quite attractive here.
15:12
A question to Harri because it is too far up – you thought that most of the units at Kherson are not on the western side but the eastern. When I look at the unit maps, it looks like just under 30 BTGs on the western side, all included, TikTok, rebels, Wagner, etc.
Then you have a heck of a lot of BTGs at/behind the southern front as well.
Do you think the reason it has gone so easily so far is because they evacuated the better units to the eastern side of the Dnipro and left the DPR rebels with a smaller screen of decent units?
I’m mostly curious because I haven’t gotten that feeling myself when following the reporting but more that the Russians would/have started attacking at Kherson towards Mykolaiv, for example.
09:58
It is a strange date Ukraine has chosen for its third offensive operation at Kherson, we have just learned that the Russians have reinforced Kherson with their best units and in large numbers, so they should be at their strongest at Kherson if I understand this correctly? I have the impression that almost all VDV are at Kherson together with some Wagner, Spetznaz, reconnaissance, and some naval infantry but the latter also seem to be at the southern front.
(it seems like almost all special forces mentioned above are WEST of Mariupol except for one or a few BTGs in recovery).
What we actually KNOW is that Ukraine has started round 3 of the positioning battles but this time there were immediately glimpses of information about broken lines, fleeing VDV, and that the 1st Army began packing up the dishwashers and abandoning forward positions in some places.
All this information came directly the same day the offensive began and then opsec tried to put the lid on in panic when the internet exploded.
This one, for example, about traffic jams eastward, you can hardly sit still 🙂 https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1564272154006413314
Then we have that DPR soldier who set the tone for the entire offensive, he talks about air, artillery, tanks and then it is all branches of the military cooperating – at least against his trench, the guy with the worst luck in the whole war.
By now we probably know that it was a smaller unit that got hit and for him, there and then, it was as he describes, but it is not the same along the entire front.
Two things I take with me – Batman-strength on Ukraine that they strike where the Russians have reinforced, and in the middle of a Russian offensive because that is what we have read about the last +1 week, the Russians have sent in their best units to Kherson and intended to work their way outward. The other is that the Russian line began to crack immediately as soon as pressure was applied.
I think they have tried twice and learned some things.
According to Erik14, people on site have stated that the artillery fire has never been so intense and that is against Russians in trenches. They have all targets logged and a morning HIMARS strike and tour-de-777 probably cause enormous damage. I have occasionally joked that a battery with guided ammunition can take out a BTG in defense in one morning if they skip the 9 o’clock coffee.
It is just like before forward along the entire Kherson front but what we do not know is if they have deployed their armor or if it is another round of positioning battles.
IF this is another round of positioning battles, one can guess the usual places – Snigurivka, towards Khakovka, down to Kyselivka and NW of Kherson, all of which are important (nothing new here).
They have held the forest SW of Davyidiv Brid and the purpose of that has of course been to take Khakovka. When Ukraine stands there they have partly cut off all Russian BTGs up at Krivoj Rog and then it will spread in Kherson that Ukraine is crossing at Khakovka and no one wants to be last across the river – sitting duck.
-So I flag that it might die out again and the disappointment will be total in the thread but that only means that advantageous positions for continued offensive have been achieved which will naturally come quite soon – why else waste troops and materiel on positioning battles if you do not intend war.
It is time to be positive-positive now and let go of the “I told you so” pessimism.
Then the 17th Armoured is also at Kherson so they have two battering rams in place instead of one as before.
Same as in the previous two attempts – If the back of the Russian defense breaks, it is naturally full throttle – units on the ground have great freedom of movement and of course exploit breakthroughs if they can. This is what one hopes for so insanely much, operation spontaneous sitting duck and a colorful Dnepr.
I get the feeling it is a piece in a bigger puzzle, a three-stage rocket or similar.
Bases and staffs are smoking as we speak from precision artillery behind the southern front and if I understand correctly, small arms fire here and there in the rear near Kherson and the southern front – partisans? That can perhaps be interpreted as a signal of impending offensive operations also at the southern front because otherwise the partisans would not expose themselves. Then there has been speculation that either Melitopol or Mariupol would be snatched back. At least at Mariupol Ukraine has reinforced with maneuver brigades with good pressure (nothing new for the Russians).
I was looking at the Izyum/Kharkov front the other day and it is 30 brigades in total including all units there – that can go a long way if you want in an area the Russians have significantly deprioritized.
Then we have the darkest Donbass which the Russians have almost abandoned and the 3rd Army corps is on the move down towards Crimea and Rostov and probably needs a week to be able to be deployed in combat. Not exactly strength with a nursing home on caterpillar tracks as the last reserve.
The only front section where Ukraine does not have offensive units is probably the Siversk – Bakhmut line and then they probably still have brigades in reserve that we have not seen in combat yet.
It is not unreasonable to believe that Ukraine will press on at other front sections as well. Kherson can go any direction right now, either they break the back of the defense immediately and accelerate a bit surprised and shoot Russians sitting ducks, they position themselves for continued offensive or it will be like the last two times that they press on but the lines hold, BUT the Russians can no longer reinforce so sooner or later it will break at Kherson.
To summarize,
-When the Kherson front collapses, the war is almost over for Russia because Ukraine can move 8-10 brigades to the next front section and repeat the firestorm and the Russians are 30 BTGs weaker and have lost a large part of their elite units.
-The Kherson front is already lost for the Russians, that gong was struck quite a while ago 🙂
-The units are denied retreat (or largely denied retreat) and most of the special forces are west of the Dnepr, total numbers between 10,000 – 25,000 have been flying around. I estimate it to a bit under 30 BTGs, how complete they are we have no idea and how much of the rear they have moved east of the Dnepr we do not know either.
-However, one can agree that 10,000 angry Russians lined up in a field with panoramic flight over and then close ups so you see VDV, Spetznaz, reconnaissance and naval infantry markings – that would send shockwaves straight into the heart of Russia and make the bunker dwarf an endangered species.
-there is more to come, Ukraine has signaled offensive, they have struck rear, logistics, maintenance, staffs and airports, they have prepared for a long time for offensive and they have the capacity for offensive 🙂
-the gambit as I have interpreted it was to deny the Russians retreat over the Dnepr and then either take Melitopol or Mariupol to encircle Crimea and then cut the Kerch bridge and now they have probably started to achieve the first step in this three-stage rocket.