13:04
Now the bridge over the Inhulets at Darivka is cut so what is inside the Inhulets is what they have to play with.
The question is what side the 6-7 BTGs down at Khakovka are on relative to the Dnieper?
Right now it is 2 BTGs trying to delay Ukrainian expansion of the bridgehead and they will probably be finished quite soon and maybe 5 more BTGs can be pushed in that have to get on the highway to get to the combat area.
-Ukrainian air force is INCREDIBLY active now with Russian LV and Russian air practically gone, hard to get on the highway.
Then they have to form up in Ufa and then it’s time for HIMARS.
The Russian team will burn through their fire brigade strength in a week or so if this continues.
If Ukraine dedicates +2 brigades against Khakovka I think that will be enough?
Up towards Kryvyi Rih there are probably +5 BTGs and the artillery that shelled Kryvyi Rih and right now they are either encircled or in combat with the Ukrainian advance over there.
That’s about all there is inside the Inhulets to sweep away.
At Kherson there are about 10 BTGs and of better units so that city is not overrun in a day.
Maybe that is not the intention either but you reach Khakovka and a tight encirclement around Kherson that cannot get maintenance or reinforcements, it could probably lead to a negotiated surrender quite quickly or a jump into the Dnieper wearing a colorful rubber duck.
14:08
Yes exactly they will go calmly and carefully and try to conserve losses and let air, army aviation and all kinds of artillery do the work. It is always hard to cover all angles when writing but we have probably discussed in the thread that most of the war will be them struggling forward rather than a full mechanized battle. However, it seemed like the poor DPR soldier had been subjected to mechanized battalion attacks with CAS and artillery support 🙂
However, to get anywhere at all an offensive is also needed, the terrain must be taken, but on the other hand it is probably hammered as hard as possible with all long-range weapons including direct fire from tank guns.
19:20
I have the impression that Ukraine has pushed back the Russians in more places than Kherson and the southern front, up by Kharkiv, Izyum, they have pushed back at Siversk and Soledar. Also around Donetsk.
Feels like we are in a bit of a radio blackout right now and that is of course due to appeals for Opsec.
Then you can resort to the last trick and check pro-Russian sites and read Girkin for things that are bad for Russia that they write are probably true, kind of.
Something much bigger is underway than just a positioning round at Kherson if you guess but maybe it doesn’t reach all the way but it seems to be a serious attempt at least?
19:47
Wrote a bit unclearly – don’t think it is just a positioning round at Kherson, think it is offensive operations along the entire active front line from Kharkiv to Kherson.
10:19
Erik14 posted a video with infantry and T72 as well as some modified M113.
Now maybe I’m thinking wrong but I recall that the shooters led the vehicles into firing positions with us?
I wonder if it is infantry with armored support or if it is the two dismounted rifle groups to the M113, there are more in another film so an reinforced platoon or a company and we see this. I guess it is an armored brigade or mech brigade.
T72 also has a bit of difficulty standing protected behind a hill as it has too flat a profile but the entire unit is maximizing the use of the terrain. Direct fire with a tank is devastating and then indirect fire on top of that so there is not much left. One might guess that this is how Ukraine is working its way forward meter by meter along the entire front now.
Low-loss combat type, balanced to the max.
However, they will take losses so this is probably a serious offensive attempt. If you want a reality check I recommend pro-Russian forums that post pictures and videos of fallen Ukrainians, once again we think of the soldiers who are dying for Ukraine’s freedom now and in the coming weeks.
The rookies in uniform are taking ENORMOUS losses right now and as we have said for a couple of days, the pocket is getting emptier on cartridges and the gaps more frequent at every reveille – the Russians cannot replace losses, equipment, and ammunition. It is the third day with high losses.
If you think just under 30 BTGs and they lose one per day then it is numerically over within a month. Then a BTG is combat ineffective earlier than that – 30% is usually cited as a limit but these guys have already been in combat for 6 months and there were early complaints at Kherson and then we have had devastating pre-bombardment for quite a while now, 2-3 weeks. Can Ukraine keep the pressure up, and do they want to keep the pressure up, it can probably go quite fast.
I wonder what the Russians were thinking here, they were in the middle of an offensive at Kherson and were about to start something on the southern front when Ukraine struck. How could they have so totally underestimated Ukraine’s striking power?
Then the whole maintenance bit – we have been sitting for months waiting for exactly this, cut bridges, no maintenance and Ukrainian offensive.
Then the nursing home is on tape during movement right now, they cannot reinforce anywhere and above all they cannot get west of the Dnieper. They are also big targets at their grouping and reloading places and then when they have to get on the highway.
That is also strange, the Russians had saved top-shelf equipment but have only managed to staff with scrap, the idea was probably 60,000 strong and with new equipment that would be in top condition until now this summer and ready to decide, says quite a lot about their self-image clashing with reality.
And finally we see T62s advancing so the counterattacks are at least in one place carried out by T62, fun for Russian-in-vehicle…