10:29
Now I’m heading off so I’ll just post the usual disclaimer that calm and composure apply at Kherson. According to earlier, Phase 1 was to encircle the units on the right side of the Dnieper and now that is done, the Russians themselves have realized that now, finally.
Then the units should be defeated over time but there is zero reason to take high losses, probably the plug inside Inhulets will come out first and the Kherson defense will remain intact longer. How Kherson will be retaken will be interesting to see, I’m thinking guided munitions and SOF until they’ve had enough but it’s about a dozen battalions of guards and VDV and 1st Army and they have dug in deeply and mined so it’s not the easiest nut to crack. BUT, it’s about a dozen battalions of elite units sitting where they are and cannot move to other front sections.
Yesterday Erik14 posted that the three battalions defending towards Kryvyi Rih are finished. Then we have the damn 331 VDV which I can never find but seems to have been broken down into its components, now it seems Erik14 has found that position too 🙂
Again, the Russians’ firefighting force has probably started to run out of steam slowly but now it’s Russians so they’ll probably push straight to the limit. Now there was only one source and that was Gregg but he pitched 2000 elite soldiers at Kherson, that’s a low number no matter how you twist and turn it.
Something that might support that is that 3/10 battalions with VDV, Spetsnaz, marines are now written off, it happened very quickly so one wonders if they were at full strength.
Then the defense towards Davydiv Brid, 1-3 BTG, should be pretty worn out.
I know it’s a lot of numbers again but I’m trying to get some kind of count on the battalions to try to calculate remaining lifespan and inside Inhulets there are probably under 10 BTG left, condition unknown, that have not been wiped out.
FIRMS gives nothing, cloudy.
I have understood one thing at the end of the thread probably and that is that different units are kept in total ignorance, they don’t know what’s happening and then they get an attack order which they carry out and then they die. It’s incredibly divided because motivation is sky-high but on the wrong grounds and if you can change the conditions you can probably change the motivation.
We have roughly been told that all commanders down to above battalion commander (my guess) have fled to the left side of the Dnieper and that there are noticeably large units from 1st Army and only a smaller part elite units.
GRU/FSB/Tik-Tok/Rosgvardia have probably taken the role of political commissars one would guess and they stand in the rear and with weapons compel the soldiers to attack, not retreat and not give up.
It is my clear conviction that if Ukraine can present something more attractive than shots in the back, for example hard promises of proper treatment under a UN mandate upon surrender and then if they maintain the pressure, 1st Army will probably throw in the towel anyway. They really don’t have that much more to fight for and EU membership isn’t too bad, right?
The previous two offensive attempts looked exactly the same, Ukraine was a bit surprised how easy it went and then the Russians rushed in heavily with reserves and stabilized the front. Part of the plan then was probably positioning so that the Russians were motivated to attack communities Ukraine had easily taken to grill BTG. The crossing at Davydiv Brid has probably cost the Russians obscene losses to stabilize – if Rommel were alive he would have been so jealous he never mentioned it by name.
Earlier there were 8-9 BTG of capable units with high combat value, the first two offensives have probably reduced that significantly.
Now we have just under 30 BTG but in what condition?
Obviously, the VDV has handled much of the front line and they have been wiped out. Then the Russians have brought in their mobile reserves and launched a series of counterattacks, we saw VDV in T62 in a film among other things. Presumably, it has not gone very well for the bridgehead at Davydiv Brid expanding and the offensive down from Kryvyi Rih has taken the two larger towns between Ukrainian units – Khakovka.
The DECISIVE difference from the first two offensives is that the Russians can no longer push in reserves. In the first offensive the strength in Kherson tripled and you understood why it stopped. Now huge amounts of armor and personnel are being worn down daily without replenishment.
Artillery, drones and aircraft operate non-stop here and the slightest attempt to move – firestorm and the slightest attempt to stay in a trench – 155mm in the head. Then the offensive grinds on slowly to keep the pressure up and it takes the time it takes. Now there will certainly be a pause soon and then it will start again. Nothing to worry about, it’s positive-positive that applies.
I’m also beginning to understand the mechanism behind the offensive from Ukraine because now it seems we are heading towards some kind of recession here and then the West can quickly lose the will to help. Then we have the whole problem with the mud between when the rains start and it freezes, difficult with larger operations. This must be weighed against conserving losses, Ukraine MUST have a maintained army that secures the border when this is over otherwise it’s a loss in the long run.
This is a geopolitical atomic bomb and the Russian empire can very well fall but first the country must be retaken by force and that is what Ukraine is doing now possibly with some exciting vehicles.
Up northeast of Lyman Ukraine has shipped infantry by boat over the Siversky Donets and now everyone understands they have limited range but it’s probably weak there – we’ve guessed all along that Ukraine would do that since the critical mass has been on their side for a long time, looking for an opening. But what an incredibly poor defense up there one must say?
According to the unit maps there are quite a few units there and they haven’t been in combat there for a long time so they should be in okay condition. Either they have moved almost everything to other front sections or we have reached a point where smashed BTG can no longer be reinforced?
That all VDV at Kherson, maybe, and according to Gregg, was no more than 2000 men is a small signal that BTG that have become shells have not been able to be reinforced over time here I think?
What is achieved with these small local offensives?
Enormous stress in the Russian command and somewhere there will be surprisingly good progress and then it’s just to step on the gas. Now there are also limited reserves and above all it is difficult to ship them around because HIMARS and SOF are wreaking havoc.
I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if there is a flash up near Kharkov soon.
If they get a foothold north of Seversky Donets, then the small supply hub Svatove is probably in danger and it still supplies all units down towards Severedonetsk, one would guess?
It has been hit by HIMARS at some point but then it has been quiet.
SOF seems to have quite a long range and eventually they will reach the N-S railway that supplies the entire war.
10:46
Here you have Kuwait Highway 2.0 in the making, there have already been reports of HIMARS strikes on waiting queues at the ferry camps, right?
https://twitter.com/ArtisanalAPT/status/1565827189102223365?s=20&t=-xKZdZzzOfOFtKibug2i2g
11:10
For some strange reason, we have gotten information about Mariupol, which we probably did not expect.
Certainly it is bad even in the darkest Donbass; a losing criminal clan usually behaves badly in its last days in power.
When history is eventually written, it will probably be much worse than we think today, and we still have Mariupol as a benchmark.
16:55
Good analysis +1
Long ago I thought that the brigades we did not see at the front were operational reserves being trained/equipped, but it seems that Ukraine, in addition to that, has set up completely new units.
According to the pro-Russians, there are 45,000 Ukrainians in combat units near Kherson, true or false, but if the Russians have 10,000 – 25,000, then you should probably have that number.
They do this while defending or going on the offensive in other places.
– they have used the time well, I have to agree with what you say 👍
17:33
Time to stick your neck out a bit, when you get reports of shattered Russian battalions, it is probably -10 out of -30 total at the Kherson front, almost 1/3.
It seems that the battalions that have defended against Krivoj Rog have been completely swept away and want to retreat, the defense up at Davyidiv Brid is probably really fragile.
Now the Russians are supposed to try to bring up reinforcements 40 km towards Davyidiv Brid or 70 km towards the Ukrainian front in the direction of Krivoj Rog and then they are completely exposed, Ukraine has excellent reconnaissance over the entire area and also the weapons to take them out. This is in addition to the task forces they held back but which have now been consumed and these units are probably quite far down towards Khakovka and Kherson. They will take astronomical losses even before they get into combat and then they have to attack Ukrainians in defense again, and that usually goes so-so for them.
According to a pro-Russian forum, there are 45,000 in Ukrainian maneuver units for this offensive and there are between 10,000 – 25,000 Russians in Kherson, the number has never gone over 25,000. It is probably somewhere around a 40/60 split with an overweight for “inside” Inhulets. Both numbers are unconfirmed but the force distribution is reasonable.
I don’t give the defense “inside” Inhulets much time here, at the rate they are being consumed now it will end quite soon.
The defense of the city of Kherson is 10 battalions of better units and probably quite deeply dug in and in buildings.
This may be completely wrong thinking but you can clear “inside” Inhulets to get your PR win and then simply isolate the defense in Kherson, they do no harm where they sit (except for the city of Kherson).
Then Ukraine frees up 5-6 maneuver brigades that they can bring over to the southern front or try to cross the Dnipro north of Khakovka by boat or on a pontoon bridge south of Khakovka. It will in any case add a serious blow to the southern front and then we repeat everything again at Melitopol or against Mariupol, Tokmak, and Volnovakha.
The Kherson Russians can sit where they sit. Of course, there is great national pride in taking back Kherson but it can get very bloody and Ukraine acted completely rationally with Mariupol when it happened.
17:39
And in the middle of this whole mess, the Russians continue to attack over in Donetsk Oblast because their goal is to take the entire province before September 15.
If the bunker dwarf continues to excel in his map gaming like this, the entire special operation could end really fast. First over with everything in Kherson so they get trapped, then over with the rest west of Mariupol and continue to attack with those in Donbass so the combat value plummets. It’s almost like you suspect he is working for NATO here.
10:16
We have probably seen the first attack culminate and then there will be a pause in the fighting on the ground, everything else should be working so the barrels glow, and then it starts up again. Meanwhile, the Russians have no way to reinforce here.
The hungry Russian in his trench with the last AK magazine is just waiting to hear revving tank engines again while reading Mao Zedong quotes on his iPhone copy to feel better and glancing at incoming 155mm shells.