12:21
Caution applies, WarMonitor again but according to him they have thundered north to Semenivka after taking Balaklyiia.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567448364932898816?s=20&t=ha8ZLcun3kuE2ELdlsuBVw
Then they have completely bypassed the defense at Malynivka and if you remember Shevchenkove, you don’t have to go further east than that to deny the units at Izyum from coming north.
Now all crossings over the Oskil river remain but if one guesses, Ukraine is getting quite good at knocking out bridges now.
Then they can get out by going east through the town of Oskil and this is where it starts to get exciting if Ukraine gets a push north from the town of Lyman, then that retreat route is also closed.
The question is whether the units around Izyum understand what is happening here and manage to withdraw in time because Ukrainians are running everywhere and tightening the net right now.
12:34
With the usual disclaimer about overestimating, but we have actually been waiting since March for just this when the first Izyum offensive started with tour-de-777. The two attacks at Kherson were a maximum (positive) disappointment when they stopped but those were positioning battles to set the stage for this.
It was quite clear we would get here since Ukraine could both defend effectively and then build up an offensive reserve, the critical mass was on their side and it was clear very early when 6-8 maneuver brigades never participated at active fronts. We said that when all brigades are at the front and Ukraine is pushed back, then it’s time to get negative (positively negative).
Now the USA called this latest offensive positioning battles directly but I get the impression that Ukraine is accelerating “inside” Inhulets and that the aim there is to fundamentally defeat the entire battle group and that they have managed to get inside the Russians’ decision circle right now, which may not be the biggest challenge in this war but still positive.
It will get tricky at Kozatske because it is a natural defensive position and the Russians certainly have 2-3 BTG in a well-prepared defense there (now). Then retreating units will drive into “cover” (everything is relative) there and regroup.
First the Russians will now stack up a couple of BTG towards Davyidiv Brid and the Krivoj Rog direction for a second round counterattack but when they are exhausted then only retreating units and a defense down in Kozatske remain “inside” Inhulets. That nut is probably best cracked with a rain of 155mm guided ammunition until they lose the will to fight or you can break through their defense. SOF will probably wreak havoc here.
Kherson will by definition be positioning since they are putting an iron ring around the city, bringing forward ballistas and lobbing in plague-infected corpses until it’s over roughly. The city is bigger and the defense well prepared for a long time.
The wildcard is as always if the Russian command gives orders to retreat or if panic spreads seriously but it seems effective to keep everyone in ignorance and it feels a bit Russian to think that two bridgeheads on the western side are perfect for a future fantastic, shining, and violent offensive against Odessa by the imperialist Russian army. The self-image probably hasn’t yet fully collided with reality but it will.
Now all this is part of Phase 1 which was to deny all units on the western side of the Dnieper retreat over the river, they chose a somewhat more violent option than just having the bridges under indirect fire which is reasonable because here you can actually show a bigger win that shakes the Russians properly. We’ll see if the media picks up the defeat doctrine for the Russians soon.
The last two months have been a bit like the scene in the Winter War when the company is to take the church hill while the attack over the lake/river starts, now the Russians (Ukrainians) just stood up.
The Russians continue their human wave attacks on the eastern front in a few places that are repelled already before they get going – if one guesses it is inertia in the chain of command and silo organization behind this, over there they are not fully aware of what is playing out on the flanks yet and they have orders to take the entire Donetsk Oblast before 15 September. Slightly incredible actually.
Nice that they dusted off the Izyum offensive and that both taking the Borova crossing and Kupiansk seems to be options here, there are certainly a dozen battalions in varying condition around the city of Izyum that can be encircled.
Since everything we discuss is happening a day or a few days later right now it’s probably high alert to expect something exciting at the Southern front in the near future?
Two possibilities today – Tokmak and Volnovakha.
One possibility in a few weeks – cross the Dnieper by boat north of Khakovka or pontoon bridge south of Khakovka with the 5-6 maneuver brigades freed from the Khakovka offensive.
12:54
Yes, in Kharkiv it’s about pushing the Russians back to the border except maybe at Izyum, which is really the “Izyum offensive” rather than Kharkiv, where they probably aim for extent.
I actually thought about that too after yesterday when I wrote a long post about how we wouldn’t see mechanized combat and suddenly they sweep away Balakliia and up at Kharkiv and what a battle they used there. You probably summed it up very well 🙂
12:58
That thing about Shevchenkove was anyway when the fields were waterlogged and muddy, maybe doesn’t apply now when it’s dry.
13:03
I’ve thought a lot about that and I think they encircle both Kherson and Kozatske and then lob guided 155mm at everything in defense for a week or two, after that they are probably quite worn out, small area and all targets are known.
It will always require taking both bridgeheads, Kozatske will probably be overrun from the north with armor but Kherson might require the best infantry because there are too many mines and other nastiness there?
At the same time they try to get a capitulation through various promises and make sure nothing crosses the Dnieper.
Ukraine has already asked all residents to leave and they said that with a purpose.
13:07
Don’t know exactly where and what happened but a captured “semi” colonel in combat is no small potatoes.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/7-september-russian-army-semicolonel-was-captured-by-ukrainian
20:53
If this twitter general’s tweet is correct then the Russians really have problems.
It’s full speed around Lyman and they would need to push Ukraine back over the river in that area but they are sending units from Lyman up towards Borova.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1567557134207827968?s=20&t=H1FS-9gMpMqGcpv2rJApiA
09:12
Extremely disappointed that the West could not deliver armor for this offensive. It is naturally arriving just in time, otherwise Ukraine would not have started it, and I see offensives in pickup trucks and at best mechanic units but often infantry supported by Soviet armor.
Those two Turkish milk cartons, for example, big and square, that we saw in the video the other day or all the M113s they go into battle in.
Ukraine has begged and pleaded but has not received what they wanted – what is so difficult about MBT????
Now hundreds of Ukrainians are dying because they do not have suitable equipment for an offensive.
09:14
What an absolutely sh1t government we have, for 6 months they have been able to train and prepare delivery of CV90 and Archer and they would have made a difference. Again, if those Turkish milk cartons on wheels had been two CV90s that poured explosives into that little grove, the risk of Ukrainian losses would have been close to zero…
09:16
There is a risk that Ukraine takes too heavy losses here and cannot maintain momentum, we have not seen that yet I want to be clear about that but it is on the risk list. If we end up in that situation, it will get messy again.
It could have been avoided with 100% certainty if the West had delivered all the armor Ukraine asked for.
09:54
If the name of the place is the one east of Siversk then that changes everything.
Ukrainian attack helicopters at the easternmost eastern front, what is the Russian imperialist air force doing 🙂
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1567618206214373382?s=20&t=Cx5LWGg5SAa67N6vGwiQiw
11:19
So the Russian air force and air defense are so ground down that they can’t even take out Ukrainian attack helicopters in the easternmost part of the front lines. That really sharpens the situation in my opinion and partly explains why Ukraine is overrunning everything right now, their drones, CAS and army aviation can operate completely undisturbed and can plow ahead of the advancing armored wedges and with the drones spot targets for the artillery.
Now I forgot that HIMARS has a range up to Moscow…
11:24
Don’t know if this has been posted but there is an ongoing overflight north of Izyum from W to E now after Barakliia.
https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1567428809959383042?s=20&t=gir3Hx2aOVch9Pamd0lSjQ
Now a retreat over the river at Borova is possible or to bypass the town of Oskil and run away eastwards but if one guesses, they are working towards a further extent of BTG down at Izyum.