10:17
Shevchenko is confirmed captured.
Likely Ukraine is already nibbling at Kupiansk but this one is confirmed with photo and flag from a source we consider credible.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1568147081755254785?s=20&t=cCc-OXK_IbmKX78XhVG_Rg
10:25
A feeling I get when seeing all these videos of some knocked-out vehicle here and there is that quite a lot of SOF may also have infiltrated the entire Izyum area over a couple of weeks now?
A couple of those videos have a bit of an ambush feeling.
The alternative is, as said, blitzkrieg and that the rear is burning and bleeding.
10:35
This one has probably been up but it is an LNR unit refusing war period, sorry if this is a repost.
https://twitter.com/VolodyaTretyak/status/1567983573172363264?s=20&t=eV_wz32K-bs5r1JJJIX9GQ
10:38
A small snapshot of Ukrainian decentralized decision-making, they achieve the combat objective anyway.
“Balakliia was taken yesterday as well as Shevchenkove and it is assumed that the goal for ours is Kupiansk. Now the Russians have sent reinforcements from Belgorod to Kupiansk and have started building defensive positions. Our strategists have naturally noticed this and now the main offensive direction is south of Kupiansk towards Kupiansk-Vutzlovyi.”
10:51
This has been up before, but when you manage to capture the highest commander of an entire front, then it has pretty much collapsed and there won’t be much in the way of issuing orders after that. Since Russian commanders do nothing without orders from the nearest higher command, such a capture must almost pacify an entire front section, I think?
https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/status/1567974442856513536?s=20&t=QWa9oABS3XEi2ek56QIoxw
11:16
I’m posting a pro-Russian page but applying reverse-information (or whatever you call it) to it; they say they have managed to repel all assault attempts on the city of Kupiansk.
So then we can be fairly sure that Ukraine has advanced roughly that far, otherwise they wouldn’t have written that the imperialistic shining Russian army had repelled every attempt to attack the city, I think.
9:30 a.m. according to the situation.
1. In the Kupyansk area, the activity of the enemy’s DRG was repelled at night. The city is completely under the control of the RF Armed Forces.
11:24
I BELIEVE this was the first attack on a couple of villages west of Davyidiv Brid where it got bloody.
I think it’s completely wrong of WP and SVT to take this angle now, now EVERYONE MUST cheer Ukraine on to victory here.
The Russians have not shown any videos at all right now of captured Ukrainians, captured Ukrainian positions, etc., everything we see videos of is from the Ukrainian side. Without moving images with today’s newspaper, it doesn’t count, actually applies to everyone 🙂
However, I don’t want to miss the chance to point out that if Ukraine had attacked in a cloud of Abrams and CV90s, the losses would have been significantly less than they are today.
11:35
Here we stand a bit apart, Tankfri 🙂
Now there is stored materiel that we don’t have personnel to operate, not sending it to kill the threat today but letting it remain because the threat might be there tomorrow, because we didn’t help to kill it – that feels illogical, immoral, and quite cowardly.
Countries like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and the Baltic states have done exactly that; they have lowered their own defense capabilities to help Ukraine, and these are countries that were once invaded by Russia. Maybe we should do like those who know how to do this?
Do you then think that we, who have a self-image of helping the weak in the world, should stand by and watch little Estonia send more and the Czech Republic give away their entire air force?
I don’t think so, and I’m ashamed that Ukrainians die with worse materiel when better could have been sent, but I’ve said that a couple of times now so it’s probably getting old 🙂
11:47
Northwards it’s probably not entirely easy to advance further; in front of the Ukrainian spearhead there are SOF and reconnaissance.
There are 4-5 bridges over the Oskil but Ukraine is probably sniffing around the one at Borova soon, which is the first?
Going around the town of Oskil to get east of the Oskil river is then option two.
To do that you need to go through 3 km of forest and this forest extends all the way down to Sviatohirsk and the Seversky Donets.
Of course, we haven’t seen anything (yet) of the reconnaissance and SOF Ukraine should have sent across the river and up into that forest. I think the passage road and the forest are almost A1 in suitability for minefields, fixed artillery targets, and ambushes.
I would be incredibly surprised, and disappointed, if the Izyum Russians could just drive through the town of Oskil and eastwards without a scratch.
So it’s not Ukrainian army units in Oskil we’re talking about but ambushes, mines, and indirect fire that would deny or heavily thin out retreating Russians.
12:24
Your self-imposed lectures, you seem to live for them 🙂
On topic, it’s actually quite interesting because Google has many images of prisoners of war and all media still has that video from early this spring with a fake video where Ukraine shot prisoners of war in the knees. Until quite recently, that definition was not at all clear at, for example, SVT which wrote this in March,
“On social media many images of prisoners of war from the war in Ukraine are now spreading. Here it is worth reminding about the Geneva Convention. There is no explicit photo ban but the convention says prisoners of war should be treated humanely. It is standard practice among established media to be very restrained with images of prisoners of war, since the situation when the photo was taken is often very traumatic. A publication can be justifiable in a situation where a broader context can be given, but it is not a type of image that should be spread without very careful consideration.”
That said, the blog’s rules apply and the post may be removed by the administrator.
12:42
I was just about to post that from Militaryland 🙂
Seems to check out, Ukrainian soldiers in front of the place name, seemed from the south.
60 km as the crow flies up there from the breakthrough at Balakliia, my god what an advance.
The town has the river running right through it so all reinforcements must cross the river, one hopes artillery and drones are alert here.
It’s enough to take the western side really for the Izyum Russians to get anxious.
Now you can almost say the Izyum offensive is dammed off and carried out a little bit.
If you guess, whichever way the Izyum Russians choose for an escape attempt, it will be a gauntlet between ambushes, artillery targets, and minefields. It’s almost unbelievable they haven’t received orders to retreat yet.
i think it’s the southern entrance, 49°40’30″N 37°36’42″E
definitely do correct if wrong
12:55
Kupiansk is confirmed.
Looking at the map, they are probably after Bakthyn now, moving straight south.
They will probably go north between Kupiansk – Bazalivka pretty soon, at least up to the natural obstacle W-E river.
After some quick map studies I’ve concluded that there are two crossings over the Oskil river south of Borova, at the town of Oskil and at Bukyne.
The road bridge looks easy to take out and the other is a railway bridge, truss, which might be a bit trickier.
Give it a day and then those bridges will be down and the Izyum Russians will be stuck where they are.
13:06
This might be OT and should be removed if so, but for the past two days pro-Russian debaters have disappeared from several forums, it’s completely silent. I haven’t seen them as a homogeneous group but a mix of St Petersburg trolls, nationalist Balkan guys, Qanon, and some ordinary guys who went wrong in life and are angry at everything.
But they all disappeared at the same time as on a given signal, none remain.
I think it’s too early to “give up” if you were a devoted Russian supporter in Sweden and you should probably continue to highlight the enormous Ukrainian losses and the minimal success for a few more weeks as a nationalist Balkan guy?
14:12
If one interprets today’s movements of reinforcements and the fact that we haven’t received any information about a retreat from Izyum, it almost seems like the Russians intend to go on the defensive at Izyum and not give up without a serious fight in Kupiansk?
At the city of Kupiansk, it really comes down to who can get the most soldiers there fastest, and that is an open question right now, but the units down in Izyum are living incredibly dangerously…
There are a total of three bridges left over the Oskil if one wants to reach Izyum, this strategy is very high risk for the red team here. I’ve estimated about 10 BTGs, someone else said 10,000, and a highest figure is probably 15,000 in that direction.
There are surely supplies there for half of Ukraine’s army.
14:41
The question arose in me that all the different “roles” disappeared simultaneously, even the obviously maladjusted basement guy who likes T-man and thinks the Islamization is annoying, they had no direct reason to disappear at the same time as the Petersburg trolls who have problems with the translation program from time to time and hardcore Soviet supporters, completely dead, we are just a bunch of Ukraine fans left who feel cheated out of being able to really press the loss hard on them now.
14:57
One thing is quite certain, there will be no CV90s in Ukraine this year because if Sweden’s most Ukraine-positive thread can’t agree on it, how would decision-makers who have a hundred other factors to consider and who also see value in crashing each other’s parties be able to do so.
15:19
Twitter generals, take it with a big grain of salt, but that the commander of the Izyum Russians is said to have left Izyum, Ukraine is charging south from Kupiansk along the Oskil river and is now 25 km from Izyum, and that the main bridge inside Kupiansk is cut.
I can’t assess any of this but so far in this offensive everything has proven true the day after.
Have seen something about helicopters in Izyum again so maybe they’ve done a Kherson and all the higher officers have left?
Not unlikely anyway.
Good for the morale of the remaining units when the commanders leave, at first it went really badly when they were supposed to lead from the front and the last thing they saw was an incoming 155mm so now they probably take no risks and leave at the first indication of increased risk. I don’t know which is worse 🙂
17:33
Yes exactly, these are the ones who slid into pro-Putin when the war started, they have been redirected.
It’s well done, I followed Qanon fascinated and sometimes you needed the debunking site to recalibrate yourself when you had slid in too deep 🙂
I think these are people who in life have not yet acquired the knowledge to distinguish these nuances that are presented and that they are easy to convince. Then there is the stubbornness of a fanatic after that, nothing you say works, everything bounces off.
You can radicalize entire countries that way, which has been done many times throughout history.
18:57
A huge grain of salt on this and yes it is Warmonitor who claims that Ukraine has reached the town of Oskil by going south along the river. If true, Izyum’s defenders are trapped, there is one more small damn bridge southwards but if the bridge at Kupiansk is cut, they will probably take this one quite quickly.
Yes it’s okay if the comment is removed because it is probably the internet’s biggest poster without a source and yes, repentance and improvement promised.
22:38
When the internet went down the blog went down, bad combo for quite difficult to vent acute positive shock.
Ukraine is thus in Izyum, they reached the Oskil river south of Kupiansk and then continued south along the river and rolled into the town of Oskil and then into Izyum.
It is highly unclear where the Russian armies are, some say 2 divisions (i.e. a couple of BTGs per division) + units from the 1st army are fighting south of Izyum, others say they have retreated and a third suggestion is that they have moved into the forests around Izyum and are trying to hide.
Anyway, the Russians are completely rattled in the stands. No one’s best scenario looked like this 😀
Then an attack on Lyman is underway, if that is released it can get really lively.
Rommel would have turned in his grave out of jealousy, this makes him look like bicycle shooting.
Svatove is within reach and the N-S supply line beyond Severodonetsk if this continues and then there will be a serious ammo shortage for the other fronts.
When you didn’t think it could get better 👍
08:40
Things are moving in Kherson and the Russians are going on the defensive in Svatove.
If Ukraine can just keep up the momentum, the revolving door will be theirs very soon. Izyum was the western anchor and it is poorly fortified beyond that.
The Russians are panic-digging shallow trenches along the southern front now, they don’t want to lose Melitopol or Mariupol.
If they do, it’s game over so we expect just that fairly soon and an attack on Lysychansk – Severodonetsk.
10:10
The city of Izyum they were in already yesterday and the best guess is 10,000 Russians in the forests around Izyum.
Zelensky has declared Lysychansk is on the way and pro-Russian forums have talked about a large buildup west of Lysychansk and now Solros2022 announces that it is underway 🙂
Severodonetsk and then you reach ALL N-S supply lines.
Svatove is a major supply hub and if you get a breakthrough from Lyman it is in danger.
It’s probably not so much Ukraine’s numbers that are decisive here as that the Russians, in pure arrogance, have weakened or not defended this area at all. Now the Russians are trying to bring up reserves and plug the holes but they crash straight into Ukrainian SOF who carry out fire raids deep behind the lines and when they eventually start to approach the combat area, Ukrainian forward units are further ahead than they thought so then they crash straight into them completely unorganized and then they have to retreat and try to establish some kind of defense and then they get encircled and overrun.
This will not end before the entire “revolving door” has been retaken provided Ukraine can defend northwards.
The southern front is probably living dangerously now.
A smart move would be to simulate a threat against Belgorod by pushing the Russians out north of Kharkiv because then the Russians are forced to keep units in Belgorod out of pure self-preservation.
10:14
The area in lighter red on Deepstatemaps’ map north of Severodonetsk looks quite large but compared to what Ukraine has taken in a few days and beaten all defense and that area is poorly defended, it is reasonable to assume that it will go fast here.
-The risk is an attack from the north.
10:03
It seems that they have gotten well inside the Russians’ decision circle here and right now we see very illogical actions from the Russian side, a couple of examples,
– They have asked the Izyum Russians to go on the defense, it appears to be 10 battalions of guards that in a couple of days will be completely encircled.
– They are still sending units towards Kherson, possibly the purpose is to secure the eastern bank of the Dnieper but for that you don’t need a lot of armor, infantry alone would suffice really, so I guess they intend to reinforce Kherson by crossing the Dnieper (that’s what they seem to have in mind…).
– They continue to move troops, materiel, and vehicles over pontoon bridges and ferries at the Dnieper despite Ukraine raining tungsten and proximity fuses (that doesn’t sound as good but the thread decides) over ferry camps, ferries, pontoon bridges, and everywhere else nearby that is idling.
– Reserves (Wagner, Erik14 post) driving straight into advancing armor beyond the city they planned to relieve (someone did that once in the military service and the feeling when standing face to face with a big gun after a bend in the road was not fun at all, shame on the one who gives up but after some back-forward-turn-back-turn maneuvers the exercise leader got tired and announced that we were knocked out at first contact).
– Then not least the artillery which the blogger was quick to say would be overrun, and it has been overrun.
– A general officer has been captured.
– The Russians continue attacks on the Siversk – Bakhmut line where they have not been forced back, in other places they have retreated 10 km.
The reason they got inside the decision circle is not hard to understand, to move a platoon sideways you need written permission from Putin and all battle plans are WW1 style where all units have received their orders and they are carved in stone. The easiest thing for a Russian is to follow the order no matter how stupid it seems, this has been seen over a sufficiently long period of probably the world’s most unserious conscription system.
Everyone knows that decentralized decision-making is king except in the imperialist Russian army because there decentralized decision-making would probably quickly lead to another revolution.
It has been guessed how the Russians would react under rapid changes and demands for reactivity and we guessed very poorly – they have performed even worse than that.
Before that it was the Russian self-image that was supposed to clash with reality, they thought they would continue attacking at Kherson and surely the subjects in Ukraine cannot muster an offensive. We have long suspected that the Russians are heading towards zero in their attacks while Ukraine is conserving its units, I think we can conclude that assumption was correct.
It is my very strong opinion that Ukraine must keep up the momentum here and come with more surprises, when the Russians have pulled units away from Volnovakha, then they pour on there down towards Mariupol in a cloud of HIMARS and CAS and they also strike directly at the core area over by Donetsk.
Since the Russians do not have enough units they will continue to weaken and circle around absurdly north and south behind the front and units will arrive at their starting positions when Ukraine has already gotten there – we might get another week or two of these crazinesses. The highest command wins and if there is chaos with him he will demand reserves that do not exist from the neighboring front, who send something just to avoid the execution squad for order refusal, even though they know they leave a big gap for that Ukrainian mechanized brigade standing a few fields away doing squats.
But even a nursing home on caterpillar tracks and a psychotic bunker dwarf eventually learns – then we can only hope that the losses are so big that it is too late because one hopes so much like on Christmas Eve that Ukraine can shock the Russians to a quick win here and that they do not manage to plug the holes too early, not a win for the whole war but that they understand where it is heading. It doesn’t bother anyone if they stand encircled in Crimea with nowhere to go for a couple of months or if they starve in the darkest Donbass but that they at least lose all their strong positions now.
There is also another twelve-gauge coming up – it is possible that Ukraine can snatch back Severodonetsk here if the city has not been used to rest units and that by chance there are a lot of BTGs there. If they succeed with that much is decided because then they have a springboard eastward and can strike against all supply lines NS going with SOF and long-range artillery which they group in Lysychansk.
For the Izyum Russians to be completely trapped you MUST close the exit route through the town of Oskil, eastward. I do not know if that has been done and we have not heard anything but I sincerely hope that Ukraine has laid mines and ambushes and reconnoitered fixed artillery targets there to crush the guards battalions’ Russian version of a retreat where they drive their T72s like car thieves at 90 km/h as up near Kiev.
When I think about it again I am of the opinion that Ukraine MUST have infiltrated massively with SOF, reconnaissance and infantry across the river and into the forest area south of the town of Oskil otherwise the whole offensive up towards Kupiansk is only a half win if 10 battalions simply drive eastward and escape.
The Russians probably have not had much troop presence in that forest area and infiltrating and preparing ambushes has probably been able to happen undisturbed. It will be a very beautiful street fight there if one guesses when the Izyum Russians eventually get orders to do a Kiev.
It will be fun to see what comes out during the day here, now the Twitter generals’ feeds are full of advancing armor, abandoned Russian positions and Russian prisoners of war.