13:13
I believe the Russians had only one defensive line, and in that defensive line they had well-fortified points with low density in between and maybe a lack of mining. SOF and reconnaissance scouted for several weeks and maybe also cleared streets through mines that they led the armor through, entirely possible. Then when they broke through the first line, there was no defense in depth, and the reserves rushed there the first days crashed straight into first SOF that slowed them down and then into Ukraine’s front units, and they were probably completely unprepared for that. After a couple of days, a decision was made very quickly by Russian standards to abandon Kharkiv oblast and Luhansk oblast north of Luhansk.
They probably could have defended the eastern bank of the Oskil River, I think, and then the NS line Troitske-Svatove-Kreminna (thanks to Hasse).
That decision was probably not anchored with El Chefe but was made by the combat leadership on site to save what could be saved, and then they had to try to put lipstick on the pig.
I suspect either they had no reserves or the pressure had already started to increase on the southern front, which we don’t really know about yet except from Kiev Independent, and they had to prioritize.
14:36
There were only Guards armor down there in quite large numbers.
I’m not going to argue this point that I think quite a lot remained south of the city of Izyum and got encircled.
With moving images and today’s newspaper, I’ll drop it.
In a few days, we’ll probably get a number on prisoners and materiel, and then you can probably figure out from the unit maps how many BTGs got away.
The front was a good distance south of the city of Izyum, and if all units had retreated, then the Ukrainian units resisting them south of Izyum would have surged forward, but we haven’t really heard anything about that in terms of liberated place names.
Then the city of Oskil was taken too quickly, and then only the railway bridge in Bryskyne remained, and then to lay pontoon bridges.
It may possibly have been that all the abandoned armor was because they had a temporary bridge that could only handle lighter vehicles and foot traffic, and that some were evacuated that way?
The one in the video looked a bit weak.
The same day Ukraine was in the city of Oskil, the message was that the guard units would go on defense and that reserves were flown in by helicopter.
If Ukraine then did NOT take the short distance down to Bryskyne but on the eastern side of the river and took precise shots at evacuating Russians, then they have missed something quite significant, and they don’t strike me as careless right now.
Then I was convinced that they had infiltrated SOF in the area SOUTH of the city of Oskil precisely to cut off retreating units; it feels strange if they didn’t do that when they infiltrated the entire Izyum front.
I felt that the Russian command would not manage this; they would order defense and reinforcement just as they did, but perhaps lower commanders in the field made the decision to retreat as soon as Balakliia fell?
The number of prisoners in a few days will give the answer.
15:16
We value Tpyxa fairly highly and he has a source that has been frequently cited by Ukrainian media.
According to this tweet, there is a 12 km long column of fleeing Russians east and south in Stanytsia Luhanska.
This suggests that the NS defensive line with Svatove in the center has been abandoned, but as said, a photo of reconnaissance in the city would be appropriate.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1568947300235624449?s=20&t=GZEgfTqicuKt3qi_C31O2g
23:01
A bit irritated that the unit maps stopped at the Siversky Donets, there are indications that it’s full speed ahead and that the area north of Luhansk is abandoned, but it probably takes time to confirm. Right now, all SOF and reconnaissance are moving eastward and reporting empty communities as we speak.
23:23
I have interpreted NLWartracker as balanced and not sensationalist, so the tweet below is a bit exciting.
However, no big conclusions from it; I think it’s too early, so presumably a misinterpretation of the blogger’s information that they are withdrawing to reinforce the front and get an effective artillery umbrella.
https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1569014757906350080?s=20&t=-M2la6CQLYmvnKS2vMAz1Q
23:29
Zelensky’s two latest speeches are extremely confident of victory; he would not have made the mistake of counting chickens before they hatch, so this offensive is probably going better than we know, as operational security remains tight at Kherson and the Southern front.
00:03
Kherson Cat has probably sneaked in some strong stuff because now it became WOMO.
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1568879771974508544?s=20&t=61i9jvSAFRysnDa-XILewg
00:24
https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1569078319534022656?s=20&t=O-dEPvRqVB3R4_Zwc_wy9g
Wartracker has geolocated that they have left Kyselivka, but here he slightly contradicts himself.
00:33
We know that the attack on Pisky did not succeed, and here is the video.
I have no right whatsoever to sit behind a keyboard and judge at all because Ukrainians died there, but I thought it lacked speed; they are almost standing still in a field. What is the thread’s take on that, too much close-range PV on the target so they keep their distance?
https://twitter.com/Taurevanime/status/1569078376761016321?s=20&t=H0YJl2GQ1WlxMukTbCTXsA
09:11
With a bit of luck, it will be – defend Crimea so the 3rd Army Corps stays down there or to relieve Kherson.
Yes, that order felt like it came from the highest command at the front rather than from the great leader because it went too fast. I had thought they wouldn’t dare make such a decision and that it would not be possible to carry out any retreat at all. In a while, we will know how many got stuck in Izyum, but evidently some crossed the Oskil river and eastward even if the bridge didn’t hold for tanks, one must assume.
A new dark horse has entered the list – more decisions at the army level ahead.
09:19
It’s never possible to know, and since Ukraine does not allow itself to be threatened, we have avoided that question.
After the Kherson and Izyum offensives, the Russians no longer have the ability to even freeze the war.
They have already wiped entire cities off the map, which would have required a number of tactical nuclear weapons.
There is lively analysis even on the Russian side, and they must themselves be able to see that the value of a tactical nuclear weapon is absolutely zero. Say they drop five over five cities, the maneuver brigades are not there, so it doesn’t affect the war at all.
One possibility is that Putin wants to draw NATO in, but since there are HIMARS in Ukraine, Ukraine will just unleash a barrage against high-value targets in Russia within 300 km, and the Russians can do absolutely nothing about it. I think HIMARS introduced some kind of balance of terror.
Then the Russian elite probably also has some kind of self-preservation instinct; it would be 100 years in the freezer if they use nuclear weapons.
However, I can imagine they try to create some kind of radioactive disaster with a nuclear power plant just to be spiteful; there is a reason the IAEA had to station themselves in Enerhodar.
11:43
It seems clear that Svatovo has been abandoned by the Russians, and then Kharkov Oblast and the area in Luhansk Oblast north of Luhansk have probably been abandoned as well. There might be some delaying battles in Severodonetsk, but I believe it will fall soon. So there wasn’t even an NS defensive line through Svatove.
Maybe we should hold off on drawing the biggest conclusions about this until we get photographic evidence of Svatove, but I consider this likely.
Why is not hard to understand, they now have to choose what to defend. It has come so far that they again have to reduce the front, but it’s not for an offensive, rather for defense, and this area has no strategic value (they haven’t realized the risk yet).
Ukraine can thus already count on an area that shortens the active front by maybe 40%.
There are a lot of battle-hardened and relatively intact elite brigades now being freed up and that can throw themselves over Donbass from the north. Around Izyum I counted over 20 brigades, and they have very little to do right now other than push north and east.
The guarding of the national border should be handled by territorial forces, NG, and some fire brigade units from maneuver brigades in battalion size here and there. They are mining like crazy and then light vehicles and artillery.
I absolutely believe that the “revolving door” will go down into Donbass and that there will be an attempt with Luhansk. Over there is an area the Russians haven’t had to defend for a very long time, so it is poorly defended and has a low density of units. Now units are retreating down there, but with a bit of luck their condition is even worse than the horde of beggars and incompetents we’ve seen so far.
And of course the big factor is that Ukrainian long-range weapons and SOF will soon reach north-south supply routes that run outside Ukraine’s land border – starving Crimea and Donbass.
Then my money is actually on Volnovakha – Mariupol, and I fully expect to eat those words. As it looks today, Ukraine has prepared a blow at Volnovakha and also against Donetsk, and what little you see on FIRMS is that there is a hotspot in the Volnovakha and Donetsk area.
The Russians have also consistently been weakest in the Volnovakha area until the Gregg attack on Vuhledar, which knocked the joy meter down a couple of notches.
Now you can quickly transfer a few brigades from Kherson if the ring has gotten smaller and let them attack southward from Zaporozhye, but I have always interpreted that the Russians have the best terrain and strongest defense there. Probably because if Ukraine were to do an Oskil and slide down along the eastern side of the Dnieper, it would be a disaster for the Kherson Russians.
The Kherson Russians might starve out over time, I think, now that they have shown what they can do. The psychological value of prisoners inside Inhulets is no longer great. Maybe the last city to fall in the war will be the city of Kherson?
After Volnovakha – Mariupol (or Tokmak – Melitopol), the chess move is basically made and then the war is lost for the shining imperialist Great Russia, “beginning of the end.” It didn’t take many days to go from “end of the beginning” to “beginning of the end” for Ukraine.
Ukraine should threaten Belgorod to hold back Russian units up there, and if you ask me, Rostov-on-Don should become Ukrainian, but that is big politics and up to Ukraine to decide.
On August 29, Ukraine launched a full offensive in Kherson, and the following week it became a blitzkrieg that surpassed Croatia’s Operation Storm, which was over in about 4 days.
One can guess that they let a week pass so the Russians would have time to pull more units from the northern front?
Now it’s time for the next blow, and it is either against the Donetsk area or Volnovakha – Mariupol or Tokmak – Melitopol. Or they start against Melitopol to drain some thieving crows in T62s from Volnovakha and Mariupol is the goal – now you’ve seen a Johan No. 1 full coverage 🙂
If Donetsk collapses, that would be a minor sensation. It is behind 8 years of prepared bunkers and trench systems with mines and is a large city; if it falls, it means the DPR throws in the towel – otherwise, one would think it would be their last stand in their capital. However, it is loaded with maneuver brigades against Volnovakha and the Donetsk area, and anything seems possible right now.
Then I have been confirmed that the bunker dwarf was indeed hung by the feet at a gas station yesterday, but his feet were too small and he was too slippery, so he slipped out of the rope, thudded to the ground, and managed to slip in through a basement window a meter away and disappear into the shadows. It was just when they were about to do the Russian version of the Iraqi shoe, which apparently is a samovar, and they managed to swing it right into the back of the guard’s head who was knocked out just as Putin was doing the Russian version of crawling by dragging on his short arms – it went very slowly according to witnesses but he was too slippery to get a grip on, and the last thing seen was two small feet disappearing through a very small basement window. Left behind was a disappointed group of Muscovites with their samovars.