10:32
Don’t know when this is from, could it be the start of the Kherson offensive?
Good video to bookmark.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1569185169483112448?s=20&t=1iVZWyTm1wNyEPmepgz68g
10:56
Reading more and more about a potential offensive at Vuhledar and now that I have put my five cents on it being Volnovakha together with Homsantoft, it has to be that, low objectivity on my part regarding that information accordingly.
What could that offensive look like, now that one has learned about blitzkrieg, it is close at hand to guess that, but the entire Southern front has been fortified since March or something and hasn’t moved, so you don’t run a surprising mechanized assault with armor at the front there is my guess, then it will be like any Swedish final exercise where the whole field is full of knocked out units.
This offensive should come quite soon so the Russians don’t have time to redeploy their reserves to the right places.
The attack should be preceded by increased pressure on Tokmak to tie up units there, an epic pre-attack on Russians in trenches and everything rearward one can strike – maybe it is ongoing, only that FIRMS is suffering from clouds right now?
Then they have advanced in Donetsk – also tying up units.
And finally, the partisans must rise everywhere together with SOF and Recon so the area behind the southern front is completely boiling.
You also need to gain air superiority with the LV screen and then the air force must strike ground targets that are Russian on roads and in Ufa.
– somewhat simplified, you need to repeat Kherson at the Southern front and deny the Russians to get reserves effectively.
After that, you probably have to work your way forward and take dominating terrain.
Now the question is where the 3rd Army corps is and I hope Ukraine manages to knock them out on the way as they limp forward.
An offensive straight south would probably look like this – first you take the forest area north of Volnovakha and then you go for the city, during the entire advance you must defend East and West so you probably advance along the line that is a natural defense first to Volnovakha and then down to Mariupol, you widen as much as you can.
If the Russians get in too many reserves then they have pulled them from Vasylivka or Donetsk areas and then you press there. Somewhere it will break.
Now that we have come this far and written about the obvious – looking at the map, dominating terrain and trying to add up Russian units, Tokmak looks like high risk and Volnovakha is probably reasonable but Mariupol looks really dangerous. A wedge straight south becomes too vulnerable and there are too many units behind the southern front in reserve. They have reinforced here to carry out an offensive, that was made clear to us weeks before Kherson started.
Volnovakha you probably want to take because of the railway and because the city and forest area are an excellent defense – a western anchor for continued offensive.
I have poor knowledge of how the Russians have dug their trenches, maybe they continue a bit east of Volnovakha, like Novotroitske and Dokuchaveisk?
I was going to write how it plays out but for some reason it felt like that information didn’t fit as it is a new fresh take on the subject of the chess move, feels like it falls under the Opsec you asked for at the southern front. But it will be a devastating win, I will post it at the start of the offensive 🙂
One problem when you take a lot of terrain is that the density of Russian units becomes higher in the remaining areas so it is important to exploit the momentum from Izyum now and constantly nip retreating units in the heels here.
I think we are fooled by the unit maps because they have stopped at the Oskil river, I think Ukraine has accelerated straight over the river and east already and that the map below is accurate as some kind soul in the thread posted yesterday.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1569096659778375683?s=20&t=8W7cxj0vA7zCJghz_my3qw
It has been clear for a couple of days that they have abandoned Luhansk oblast north of the city of Luhansk but we lack proof of that, flag in Svatove type.
I think they will make an attempt soon against Luhansk to test the will to defend there, the city hasn’t been in the battle lines for quite a while, poorly defended and now it is demoralized units without heavy equipment that have retreated there.
There are many brigades freed up now that Izyum has fallen that can be used for other fun things.
Then we have the persistent rumor that there is full panic/retreat at Kherson and Tpyxa’s proposal for negotiated capitulation. I dare not draw too big conclusions from that even though Tpyxa is fairly credible and doesn’t post the worst. However, if it happens it opens for Ukraine to cross the Dnipro over a very long stretch and open up a threat behind the southern front. Somewhat simplified, you do a Davuidiv Brid and go on defense on the eastern bank at suitable places and grill Russian BTGs that the Russians will surely rush there to run over the bridgehead. Now you also have artillery radar and long-range artillery so the Russians lose that duel quite fast. Then you let your own artillery protect the bridgeheads and they will hold. This is absolutely what the Russians expect so nothing you need to opsec but it is something they must act on because if they don’t Ukraine will just roll over their 10 brigades and drive straight into the side of the southern front.
An old-fashioned BTG grilling again thus somewhat like when the tank fortress was formed up at Davyidiv Brid.
11:04
Just these rumors that there are traffic jams into Russia and that the Luhansk and Donetsk “governments” have moved I find interesting. If true, then they have done like in Kherson and abandoned the field.
It is interesting because the DPR and LPR soldiers then feel the same – it is going to hell and why should one die for this. The wildcard total collapse moves up a few notches on the list actually, if Luhansk falls or if there is progress in Donetsk it might trigger something exciting in the darkest Donbass. Unfortunately, there are ethnically Russian units there now that have retreated down from the Izyum offensive but with some luck they are demoralized and lack heavy equipment.
11:09
What is funny in the middle of all this tragedy is that this is how the Russians have fought – they have fought a map war.
Ukraine has taken dominating terrain, defended, burned Russian BTGs etc.
Putin points with a trembling and very small finger at Donetsk Oblast and demands it, they were there for quite a while at the southern front as they attacked north along the Donetsk Oblast border.
This is completely incredible and makes Hitler appear as a great tactician.
11:18
I hope so, and that they are welcomed into the EU, that everyone in Europe likes Ukrainians, they deserve it.
Yes, they have a way to go before they can join, but if Romania and Hungary are in, they can’t be too far off.
The risk if this doesn’t happen is that we get Europe’s most powerful mafia when a million soldiers have to support their families, so there is some self-preservation instinct in this as well. Imagine when the hyenas of Husby have to negotiate away their market shares in the drug market with Ukrainian former airmobiles in BMPs.
12:49
Yes, we were certainly sitting early spring with the Kherson scenario and the encirclement of Izyum, it’s absolutely incredible.
May 4-5 when they struck towards Izyum and it was supposed to be a revolving door and game over, and when they crossed Davyidiv Brid the first time, we were sure of what would happen and hoped every time that it was underway 🙂
Now one is even starting to cautiously move the bubble “total collapse” up the list of possible outcomes here.
13:18
There are too many rumors now for it not to be true regarding Kherson.
I interpret it as the units “inside” Inhulets that have approached Ukraine with a request for negotiation and surrender.
You understand why, first 3BTG up near Krivoj Rog was wiped out and then the 2-3BTG that tried to hold the fan at Davyidiv Brid was smashed. Less than 10 BTGs remained and of those, some were sent up towards both Davyidiv Brid and then Krivoj Rog for another offensive attempt – you remember the columns on the roads. They were well exposed to everything on the way up to their UFAs and then had to attack Ukrainians in defense and probably got beaten badly too and now there are what, 4-6 combat-ready BTGs “inside” Inhulets left after two weeks of fighting and now the bridgehead at Davyidiv Brid is starting to expand outward and southward in a way that suggests the Russians are having trouble holding out.
Surrender is the reasonable option, the TikTok Chechens have probably prevented Operation Badanka. I had thought about a 40%-60% split between Kherson and the area “inside” Inhulets but much of the maintenance is probably in the city of Kherson, under 10,000 men maybe who are starting to feel that surrender is a suitable option here.
If it becomes an organized surrender, they will move past checkpoints and the internet will be flooded with endless videos of VDV prisoners, if nothing else it will encourage DPR and LPR to start looking for things in white.
This is significant, then the city of Kherson will probably give up over time, a brigade is sent down to Darivka and then 6-7 maneuver brigades are freed up which are either sent across the Dnipro for the threat in the rear or ferried over to Zaporizhzhia, or both.
13:18
Yes, exactly, they have been trying to run supplies and reinforcements for two weeks now and realized it’s pointless.
13:32
That was kindly written, yes I was probably the thread’s joke and punching bag for a while but there were a couple of kind souls who saw the same light and the blogger who probably saw the light long before the war started.
It struck me the other day that a recurring comment was that I was drawing too big conclusions from everything. Now Ukraine has really exceeded those too big conclusions quite a bit, Izyum was supposed to be a slow strangulation and not overrun in under two days in our best scenarios 🙂
13:42
Since I bet five hundred that Kherson would fall before the end of August, I think that if the whole lot surrenders within a week, I might get away with 250 SEK maybe.
14:17
The Kadyrovites then have to cross the Dnipro to the western side, right, and they probably never will.
They are busy filming Instagram videos where they empty AK magazines around street corners and crouch behind rubble piles in already liberated areas.
I understand that Kadyrov bet everything on his elite units becoming legendary in this war but these total imbeciles have only been outdone by that display of Belarusian Spetsnaz that was fast-forwarded or the VM in not being able to drive a tank where Zimbabwe excelled, which took place recently in Russia.
14:29
Now there are many longer posts but it just struck me that if Ukraine manages to keep the momentum now, this could be over quite soon. As is well known, I believe they are in full speed eastwards from the Oskil river and threatening Severodonetsk if not already then quite soon, photo evidence from Svatove will probably come soon. Then they turn down towards Luhansk and threaten it. If one can time this with the rebel governments being denied entry into Russia (thanks Russia), attacking the city of Donetsk, Kherson surrendering and going on the offensive on the Southern front, then at least DPR and LPR might think that the fighting is over.
Either they surrender or they turn against the Russians to avoid too many years in prison.
Then remain the ethnically Russian units which are now reduced with Kherson, Izyum and all DPR and LPR units that surrendered and they shall stand against +300,000 Ukrainians in maneuver brigades who have learned combined arms warfare and who smell a knockout victory. It will go fast if that ball starts rolling, probably already probing with DPR and LPR.
As said, it is important to keep the momentum here to give the opposing team the illusion that Ukraine cannot be stopped and if they try, they die, a bit like a wrestling match where the blue shirt just put a half nelson on a very short guy with very small hands in the red wrestling singlet and he squirms a bit mostly for show but knows what is coming.
14:49
I don’t enjoy reporting what is happening now/has happened, the challenge is to try to find the most likely scenario through plausibility analysis. Everything works and everyone is different, otherwise it would be boring 🙂
Wasn’t that a bit unfair, Tankfri? You have to admit that the Izyum offensive and Kherson were the two scenarios we discussed?
They were supposed to encircle the Izyum Russians and then go like a “revolving door” down through the area north of Slovyansk – Severodonetsk. In Phase 1 they were to deny the Russians retreat over the Dnipro river and then grind them down until they gave up or swam home. But they would be flushed out into the Dnipro delta of course.
The third we discussed was the chess move, to reach Mariupol or Melitopol, probably mostly Melitopol when I think about it and that is definitely underway.
We wrote that it wouldn’t have played out further than that.
Then the bubbles front collapse or Putin at the gas station but that is always clearly on the bubble list. And then a bit of Kuwait highway 2.0 on top of that.
You are welcome to list the other 27 scenarios (how do you spell that word) that I have guessed over the past six months, Tankfri.
14:50
Hope I didn’t say “what did I tell you” now DenGamle because that never gets fun.
16:41
There seem to be two separate events in Kherson, one is a possible capitulation of the Russians east of the Inhulets (inside the Inhulets).
The other is that they withdrew 5-10 km on the Kherson side to come under the protection of their own artillery again.
That can only mean that their own artillery in Kherson is either knocked out or out of ammunition?
There were rumors among the Twitter gods that one of the artillery regiments was completely wiped out, for example, and artillery losses have been astronomical in the last two weeks.
Without drawing too big conclusions (or really any conclusions) from that, it could also mean that they want to get under their own artillery umbrella to be able to carry out a retreat across the Dnipro on the city side of Kherson?
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1569088318633033728?s=20&t=0RFlvEPOqdhg5mBBYtEOGA
16:47
There have been some videos of prisoners of war and there haven’t exactly been heavy battles up by Izyum but those captured are completely exhausted in a way that can’t be explained by two days of fighting, dirty, torn clothes, demoralized and worn out. I don’t know if most of what we’ve seen are rebels or ethnically Russian units but the combat effectiveness seems to have been extremely low.
18:38
Tpyxa is posting a lot of sensational stuff right now, he mostly had cool videos before and if there’s reason to be cautious with him let me know.
Now he announces that they have stopped sending reinforcements to Ukraine which would be somewhat sensational, all of Ukraine becomes like Kherson where existing units become fewer and fewer.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1569358301166444546?s=20&t=s5cmn1s_RdA0hxpDGxaOBg
19:15
Here you have the pessimists on the Russian side, there was a bit above about prisoners who are completely demoralized beyond two days of fighting. This guy just throws away his weapon and kicks it.
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1569309229215027207?s=20&t=NgAdRmD3San5gM5k9UH0QA
19:28
This one Erik14 has probably already posted, surprised otherwise but the Russian army seems to be rolling around and dying completely on its own, this is on par with the drownings at Bilohorivka.
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1569304624363978753?s=20&t=NgAdRmD3San5gM5k9UH0QA
20:52
The blogger’s 19:46, now one really gets lively this evening, if it’s the entire Kherson front that wants to negotiate it’s somewhat incredible, one thought there would be two groups running a bit of their own race independently of each other but now they stand and shout at each other on opposite sides of the Inhulets about how they should negotiate as a group.
Do you think that’s enough to shake DPR and LPR into laying down their arms or is something more needed?
If something more is needed, the chess move should be enough and then it’s over, it’s impossible for the Russian army to withstand more setbacks than this.
From imperialist great power to maximally humiliated pariah has gone at record speed one must say.
Soon time to go to any betting firm and bet five hundred on how long Putin survives.
08:30
Nothing that blew up the internet this morning, mostly sitting and looking if any of the bubbles have/will materialize but they are still bubbles, fun to talk about and fun if they happen but until they do they remain speculation. For example if Putin comes home from the foreign trip or has sought asylum in China 🙂
On May 9 I got a serious reality check regarding the sluggishness in Russia but I think it varies at different levels and with the army/military it must be pretty bad right now. Then there is probably an inherent security in that they are not strong enough to do anything fun, Putin probably has a private army of 40,000 soldiers for example that stands outside all others, FSB, GRU, Omon etc. and these three have not taken hits in Ukraine, they are probably quite well off, and are not on the army’s side.
However, Spetznaz, VDV, marine infantry and Recon must be completely insane but maybe they are down to zero now?
That leads to the army not being enough for any kind of revolution but that wouldn’t stop them from doing an Izyum in all of Ukraine. Unfortunately, the density of units increases when the area gets smaller and probably compensates to some extent for the losses and that Ukraine gets looser units. The hope is that they are demoralized and broken by previous losses and retreat at the first attack.
08:33
Flying around that Azerbaijan has started moving against Armenia and according to this, quick start and quick end?
What happened/is happening?
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1569567880185774080?s=20&t=2KGdsa7q2sEE5X2MpHt-cA
08:37
I think so and then they report that they have knocked out 2 command posts, an ammo depot and five tanks.
That’s why the combat leadership constantly believes they will win this war, the information they compile is that Ukraine will collapse any day now.
Now Izyum was an eye-opener for them but with a bit of luck there is still sluggishness in the chain of command here and with Putin gone maybe they don’t dare change direction yet. A window for Ukraine to exploit.
10:05
Have you seen this on abandoned equipment, guessing Izyum, pure Kuwait Highway on this.
https://twitter.com/OSINTua/status/1569202777406210049?s=20&t=1iVZWyTm1wNyEPmepgz68g