15:06
I think the Russians now have to turn to large-scale subversive activities when everything else is going so incredibly badly Russian-style.
We have already seen an old veteran, T, go out and demand peace to save the children and then some unexpected candidates.
Right now, everyone who starts shouting peace in Ukraine (and has been silent until now) should probably be considered part of the Russians’ subversive influence, consciously or because they listen to pro-Russian channels.
Then we have those who start whipping up fear of nuclear weapons, maybe there is some old peace activist left but otherwise the same there – influence consciously or unconsciously. The latest in the line is Alexander S of all people who wants us not to downplay Putin’s nuclear threat, it is real. Now I don’t think Alexander is a paid Putinist in any way but if you have a big platform you might want to think twice before playing Russian psyops straight into their hands, I think.
Added to that is all the usual influence – the gas weapon, electricity anxiety, “us versus them” (right-left, pigmented – non-pigmented etc. (we took that from BD) )
It gets trickier because now you can also use “Putinist” for everything, I have genuine climate anxiety for my indoor climate and it’s not because I like Putin but because the Green Party shut down the nuclear reactors, or pushed that hard, and my electricity bill now is obscenely high.
All the old known pro-Russians will push these issues as hard as they can and then the last ones will now out themselves because they have to, and then they want to start fights group against group – cold indoor climate against warm indoor climate standing at Sergels torg waving placards at each other.
There is no normally functioning person who can think that Russia should get a second chance here so that the risk of this type of war remains. Realpolitik and all that but right now it is quite risk-free not to support Russia so you can’t blame realpolitik either.
Then I think there will be hard attacks on EU electricity supply going forward, masked as technical faults but coming in such numbers that it stands out compared to previous years when you have the statistics. They will probably try with angry citizens/youths for sure to pit groups against each other.
You can’t protect yourself against this so it’s more of the same against Russia that applies until they either change their mind or can’t carry out their subversive activities.
In Ukraine, there are many pro-Russian people assisting Russia and one can guess it’s similar in the rest of Europe, though not on such a large scale. A technician at any nuclear power plant who forgets a wrench in X so the reactor has to be shut down for six months – more is not needed to double the electricity price in Sweden in January. You can’t possibly protect everything so there will be attacks on our energy infrastructure.
The best way to raise the indoor temperature so children don’t have to sit in snowsuits watching TV is therefore to beat the Russians fundamentally in Ukraine so they completely lose the desire to carry out their subversive activities.
With the hindsight of Ukraine, I am also quite convinced that when history is eventually written, the Russian subversive tentacles were significantly more numerous and longer than what is believed today around the free West.
15:10
You must not forget Orban, he has found his way out of his cave and is shooting quite broadly right now on all issues that benefit Russia. He has personally really managed to ruin Hungary’s reputation for many years to come here.
14:54
Now the Russians’ offensive capacity should be even worse than it was a few weeks ago when the new head of the traveling circus was supposed to put his watermark on the special operation and did exactly what Hypnopaddan asked for, sending everything forward. They have been going harder for a couple of weeks now and it’s probably not over yet, or the Russian version of going harder where you stomp hard on the ground a few times with high knees before you die.
The film yesterday of a knocked-out Russian column (when is not important) happens everywhere every day, the all-seeing eye sees and hears everything, IR capability one must assume since much knocked out is in the open like any company would try to spread out in a grouping in a wooded area.
I keep coming back too often to the joking that a 777 battery can knock out a BTG in a morning if they skip morning coffee. It seems they knock out heavier calibers in a defensive position with indirect fire and then can work calmly against Russians in a hole until they are ripe for an organized Russian retreat and get knocked out on the way in the constant gauntlet.
What we probably have to watch out for is making a German move because equipment comes in every day all the time and now they have mobilized personnel.
Offensive capacity is probably declining daily because new personnel lack training/experience but there is a defensive capacity left that stands between Ukraine and liberating its country. Presumably, it is on the rise now.
The low point is thus now if one may guess and Ukraine has done as much as possible up north and near Kherson. What of course will be a “suddenly it happens” is at the Southern front and the chess move. There are all logical reasons for it to happen now during the autumn but many factors play in that only the command knows.
Highest on the risk list is still that Ukraine loses momentum but we have not seen that yet.
Imagine if the 84 rockets or whatever it was had hit high-value targets – command posts, ammunition depots, fuel depots, assembly points, artillery, etc. All that Ukraine hits out every day. The Russians shoot at what they can – barracks for the maneuver brigades which are probably empty and things that can’t be moved – civilian targets.
Their version of HIMARS doesn’t work for them because they don’t have the intelligence gathering that Ukraine has.
Also, their shots over the bow didn’t work either, here but no further, because they already played that card at Mariupol.
However, I do think that after NS1/NS2 and these pointless terror bombings, the West can shoot in that last bit Ukraine needs to win the war, the list was already circulated last spring and there was a big discussion about MBT and IFV that died out. Why it would be politically sensitive now someone almost has to explain to me and the Ukrainian children.