12:22
We probably have two distinct phases here now as we begin to reach the beginning of the end –
-The Russians are kicked out of Ukraine, 3rd Army corps limps last gout-broken and thirsty dragging some T62s behind them like a modern version of galley slaves. That will happen even though crazy-frog will spit-hiss, bang his little fists on the table and threaten with absolutely everything while the West just continues with its – “if you even try to roll out nukes from the warehouses there will be a hard wedgie, capiche little man”.
-what happens then 🙂 it is not hard to understand that the second best for the Hypnopad is an open conflict (not an active war but a conflict à la North Korea), then he can have his repressive regime, his war economy and all the fun that comes with permanent emergency laws in Russia. A country like Zimbabwe or Venezuela puts lobster on the table every day for the richest families despite the country being over in our eyes. I have worked in African countries where the inhabitants did not have food every day and the country runs on a well-fed elite. We met their children when we lived in London, Bath and Edinburgh, they were everywhere and lived like gods. In the second best scenario the Russian elite can live well and they would not say no to that.
When they are out of Ukraine, they will probably try for a third round – if they can. After this round of mobilization, the bubbling revolution that would make the country better has dropped several notches on the list. The army’s refusal to fight comes far ahead, as does the grilled Hypnopad. Isn’t it enough to look at Libya or Iraq to understand that a Scandinavian democratic Russia within a few years is not realistic? Or Syria, where Assad remains unchallenged after far too many years.
It is probably in this light that one should see the long-term rearmament of the country and that Finland (and we) are joining NATO, and that the city is moving, preparing a hard border against Russia that encloses them against all countries except China.
It might also be like with the NK and Iran, when Russia has built some new cool doomsday weapon after 10 years of enormous and expensive effort, where generations of promising researchers have been exhausted, and the Hypnopad is there rubbing its hands eagerly to unleash this armageddon on the subhumans in Ukraine, preferably over a daycare with very small children, but they lose control of the computer and the fuel cells spontaneously ignite. That would work too.
They probably try to hang with the tough guys in the thread sometimes, but honestly, I would incredibly much like to see a Scandinavian democratic Russia or at least a Russia that moves closer to the West as Poland and Ukraine have done. However, I do not think it is realistic; Russia seems to be a dog-eat-dog society to the fingertips, and if one is to be guided by history, a major change will only make the country even worse. I again make the connection to a country in Africa I worked in – I arrived there in 2006 with hope for a better country, and today in 2022 it is if anything even worse; there is zero brightening on that country’s horizon.
The best outcome I see is an encapsulated Russia on a sanctions leash held very tightly but that China never jumps out of its box – they realize that a relative balance against the free West is preferable. Then we have gone through our world war and can have a hundred years of peace.
If Putin somehow manages to whip up serious anti-West sentiment (which I wonder if he can because Russia is probably not so popular as a country), then we get the great war of our time. It ends like all great wars with the dictators’ illusions being sunk and the free West victorious, but it will be years of misery and millions dead as usual, which we could gladly do without because the final result is the same – the free West comes out as the winner 🙂
17:28
Ukraine wants MBTs, give them MBTs and CV90s. Sweden can shine here.
https://twitter.com/tpyxanews/status/1581571138211414016?s=46&t=wkzbt4SxqaBy-xlxegs_Mg
17:47
Now Ukraine is out and wants tanks and armored personnel carriers. They have performed miracles with what they have, but now they need to get offensive capability quickly.
It is sad that we have to endure a Belarusian attack now because Ukraine did not get what they wanted until now.
Hope that EU leaders, and our government whoever it will be, calm down here and send from the top shelf.
Anything else is unreasonable.
19:43
But you can also make a proper racket with artillery and tank fire and going 1-2 km into Ukrainian territory, I think, it doesn’t have to be the whole Kiev race again 🙂
It’s late now and I’ll write something about it tomorrow, but it’s not really a large-scale offensive attempt I’m thinking of, but that they open a second front that ties up Ukrainian units.
Why else would they send 20,000 newly mobilized troops there when they are desperately needed on all other fronts, I wonder?
An extra bonus would of course be a full attack southwards that runs into minefields and fixed artillery targets. Now I think Putin probably feels that is high risk, but he has forbidden retreat from Kherson for far too long and ordered attacks on Bakhmut for far too long…
19:53
If we are facing something bigger in Kherson and the Southern front, maybe one has to dust off crossing the Dnieper in some form?
My thought has been to establish a couple of bridgeheads with infantry covered by our own artillery and then we have all the BTG grillers’ mother prepared when the Russians try to eliminate the threat behind their southern front.
19:57
The guy who came up with Davydiv Bridge probably has hero status now and can get it written off on the next daring plan – crossing the Dnieper.
20:34
Locally Bakhmut has value – it unlocks the whole Bakhmut – Siversk line, but when Ukraine is rolling up entire fronts elsewhere it is completely pointless. I don’t quite know what it signals, that the Russians believe in an offensive ahead, that they just want to please Putin, or that one front doesn’t know what another front is doing – all are equally bad anyway.
21:26
The thread has taken a glowing pro-Ukrainian position and sometimes it’s not entirely right.
Right now it’s not so popular to discuss a Belarusian attack and you have to be careful not to take a known pro-Russian position, then you don’t last long.
No one is perfect but I think the blog and the thread are as close as you can get to fair reporting that also has the right moral compass.
I personally think he had to be persuaded; according to many in the thread, he was a personality who rarely gave in, the pedophile in the cave was brought up.
12:09
Missed Friday’s cozy evening about electricity prices due to cozy evening and that was probably lucky because with my acute climate anxiety about our indoor climate paired with a Friday night would be a bad combo, you feel like a wounded animal after MP rampages.
It is not far to renewed high Ukrainian pressure on several front sections, one is starting to learn the time for recovery and consolidation now. I think there are hints about Khakovka now and the blog writes that opsec applies again – operation Badanka would be fun 🙂
The logical (and dangerous) thing about attacking down along the Dnieper is that if you take Beryslav, the entire Kozatske defense, which is centered northward with a flank in Beryslav, falls but there is probably some risk of Russian counterattacks from the north. The units east of Inhulets are living dangerously, the southern front is definitely on the list of areas where chaos should be created and of course Svatove.
Up at Svatove, two offensives have “collided”, the Russians gathered their forces and ran their poor version of a counteroffensive and Ukraine is positioning itself. We have guessed that Svatove will become like an island of defense and that Ukraine can get around, that seems to be the case. In front of the tip there are (the entire West’s…) SOF and reconnaissance that create an encirclement effect.
It was likely, we felt, that the Russian defense would not be enough for a defensive line along the NS axis through Svatove and it has not been either, time and numbers were lacking.
However, a V-shaped defensive line towards Luhansk has probably been prepared as we also discussed and I am wondering if they will abandon the area north of Luhansk when it is finished or if something stronger is needed, an offensive at the Southern front for example?
I don’t quite understand the WW1 defense in Hirske but maybe the Russians think that the defense at Svatove or Starobilsk should hold and then they build defenses west of Siversky Donets?
Now both Svatove and Starobilsk are falling like overripe mangoes soon and one wonders cautiously if there is the same defense east of Siversky Donets and in the city of Luhansk or if the Russians rely on other Russians to surprise and actually succeed with something in their hastily prepared defenses further north and in Severodonetsk?
Ukraine will in the future break up the fronts into isolated islands and break the back of one at a time over time. Kherson is a special case because the Russians have sent their best units there – it will be the VDV’s last battle. The next area to isolate is the part of the Southern front they cut off with a wedge down towards Azov. Crimea is not urgent but if anyone thought the ferries would replace the bridge, they do not, and Ukraine has not even sunk a ferry yet… Crimea will be isolated directly when the long-range weapons reach the bridge and ferry camps and then you can lob 155mm onto Russians in defense and with low losses tear up the defense of Crimea one weed at a time.
I am convinced that the Russians will voluntarily give up Crimea, there will be a streamlined jump in Kerch and some historically minded soldier will think that this is how my grandfather must have felt when he swam over and then quite immediately – why was I sniffing glue in swimming lessons at school, and why didn’t I buy a rubber duck with silver tape in three places.
The Russians will of course gather at the few remaining ferry camps and crossings, the one at Khakovka you simply cannot shoot away for example, but for that they have now received the tungsten rain (still prefer the tungsten rain) for HIMARS.
Then 2000 guided shells more for 777. I am convinced that the pre-attack takes care of almost all armor in a target area and that the attack then aims to hit Russians in a hole. The Ukrainian vehicles move very relaxed as long as they are outside near PV distance now and the number of knocked out armor has been sky-high, and when attacking Ukraine they are in defense.
Then Ukraine has asked for 300 MBTs and a large number of IFVs. That is a tough number we have to relate to and to all who say that you cannot spare 300 MBTs collectively in the free West, one can probably only say that they either do not support Ukraine or they steal the change money for ice cream for small children on the beach in the summers because solidarity with Ukraine they certainly do not have.
If Ukraine today had the heavy armored fist they are asking for, the war would have been much shorter – now was the absolute low point and Ukraine has done what they can with what they have. Now it will still be a devastating win but it takes longer than if they were fully equipped.
Then I have a bit of difficulty understanding the logic with more HIMARS but no MBTs, to me it looks like they have enough weapon platforms to deliver HIMARS ammunition now?
Finally, I think Ukraine is thinking about the future now, we see them towing away T62s to workshops and one wonders why – I think the latest order for 155mm guns and all these vehicles going to workshops are meant to be used in defense along Ukraine’s very long land border when the Russians have left.
Ukraine will also get aircraft eventually, F16 is probably close at hand and those A10s?
The war is not over when the last Russian has left but Ukraine must defend its entire land border forever here and the day they expose their throat the Russians will surely be back again to create more medieval chaos with torture centers, institutionalized rapes and castrations.
If Johan No.1 got to decide (which he does not) then a 30km-40km demilitarized zone would be introduced on Russian territory along the entire border and all indirect and offensive weapons within this area would be shot away without warning. Then weapon platforms that can deliver ballistic rockets/missiles with or without nuclear weapons are banned, they can be shot away anywhere in Russia’s territory if they move. They are simply not allowed to move at all.
If this is enforced with violence then Russia can probably be pacified enough for peace in our time.