2022-11-30 -

10:46

Three fronts are beginning to take shape, one around Toretsk, one around Bakhmut, and one around Avdiivka.

Looking at the threat on a strategic level, it is very low, but we remember Popasna and how everything collapsed when it fell, so there is always a risk that Ukraine has pinned a lot on one location and when it falls, it creates a vacuum. But how the Russians would exploit that is probably the big question, infantry is slow.
Maybe they are holding back some armor/motorized BTG for a breakthrough like at Popasna?

Ukraine’s maneuver brigades are almost all at active fronts. Now Ukraine is preparing for a continued offensive on the southern front and Luhansk, but there is no LARGE operational reserve to counter if something breaks somewhere, then they will probably have to pull units from planned offensives.

There should reasonably be a second defensive line?
The main defensive line is probably Kramatorsk/Slovyansk and down towards Toretsk, but they should reasonably also have a N – SW line.

Could it still be Russian oblast warfare?
Luhansk is almost in Russian hands and there is still a long way to the Donetsk oblast border, but they are attacking in what looks like an attempt to take Donetsk oblast?
Looking at Deepstatemap, all attack arrows are in Donetsk oblast.

If they had put everything into advancing towards Dnipro instead, there would be some kind of logic in it, to close the crossings over the Dnipro. There is incredibly attractive defensive terrain NE of the city of Dnipro and towards Pavlograd.

One is always worried that there is some brilliant plan that has not been figured out, but I can’t see that there is any other plan than to take Donetsk oblast here in exchange for enormous amounts of newly mobilized dead.

The strategy is probably also to rest the better units and try to wear down Ukrainian maneuver brigades by throwing newly mobilized troops at them.

11:52

From memory from some thread – NATO is a defensive alliance that in no way threatens Russia. The only reason they don’t like NATO is because they can’t invade neighboring countries like Georgia, Afghanistan, and Ukraine.. Chechnya too.

It can be compared to setting up a police station in a rough suburb, everyone is very happy except the career criminals who see it as a threat.

Now maybe Russia judges others by themselves but I don’t think we will see NATO attack the country Russia in the foreseeable future?

15:10

Possible gasoline on the fire in Belarus, the military is probably not very eager to be sent to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1597671543659642881?s=20&t=2a6-Hr1nQbET89PXc219_A

18:04

Could this be what they want to use the 2000 suicide drones for?
Maybe they don’t have that range?

Ukraine must reasonably respond proportionally as long as Russia continues. If Russia goes out and declares that they will never again fire missiles into Ukraine, there is probably reason to stop?

This is one of those pieces of information that one guesses is the starting shot for a new strategy from Ukraine that will cause enormous chaos in the next 1-2 months.

Personally, I wonder if Russia is more vulnerable to attacks on the power supply than the EU and Ukraine, it will be dark longer.