12:55
Yes exactly, VDV is in the Svwtov line now and probably Starobilsk and the northeastern Luhansk line.
Then you have all the better units, guards, reconnaissance, marine infantry etc. that are resting and being equipped.
Some were probably in Melitopol, Mariupol and down in Crimea and got HIMARSed away but the deep-frozen Russian in a ditch are probably mostly newly mobilized and LPR/DPR.
We’ll see if tube artillery starts up against the defense at the Southern front soon. They have definitely already grouped.
10:16
Erik14 tirelessly continues posting the timeline on bombed-out Russian bases and Rybar discusses other things, the canary hasn’t screamed in falsetto yet.
Then it seems to be mostly territorial (which is trained infantry today) and not maneuver brigades over companies + volunteer units defending against Russian attacks where they occur. From that, one can probably conclude that Ukraine is resting and reinforcing the maneuver brigades for offensive operations.
The Russians attack with mobilized troops that the Ukrainian territorial forces manage to fend off – everyone is preparing for something bigger.
What stands out is the targeting of the rear, the daily summary in the thread is “5 bases,” “3 bases,” etc. We are back to early autumn almost when HIMARS appeared (whenever that was…).
My theory is the following – large amounts of units were redistributed from Kherson that needed to be somewhere and because of the cold they need warmth – they live in heated larger buildings like hotels, schools, or apartment complexes. Since the power supply is probably just as bad on the Russian side, they can only manage to heat certain points and that’s where the Russian team gathers.
Those are the ones Ukraine is hitting now, everyone talks about longer range weapons but Melitopol can be reached with known weapons and there are Tochka-U and 2000 drones to be used, and there is constant talk about new weapons Ukraine is developing. That they have gone from drones with a dangling hand grenade to rotating magazines of modified wing grenades shows that technically a lot is happening and they direct fire with drones very effectively so they exploit what they have excellently. Then they continuously improve capability and carry out these max-range operations with lots of psyops – what exactly has been used we can only guess.
We have two major events in the past week, or actually more because Macron and Scholz have relapsed into their addiction and want to help Putin, but on the positive side, the USA has both gone public in the media and put pressure on Germany to deliver Leopards and also confirmed via the media that Ukraine is allowed to strike Russian territory – high-level signal politics.
Then there was talk about Turkey delivering glide bombs, GLMRS? Are they made in Turkey or has Turkey bought them from a third country, which are the actual suppliers?
Someone already brought it up but the weather sucks in Ukraine, above zero and rain during the day and cold at night. I was looking at longer forecasts a few weeks ago and it was supposed to be frozen until just before Christmas. This probably explains why there is still some stagnation. Does anyone know if it has frozen over in northern Luhansk or not, watercourses for example?
However, the Russian units that are not well prepared are having an absolute hell now – rain during the day and minus 8 degrees at night, almost worse than the Winter War. We are waiting for the first videos of deep-frozen Russians in a ditch, they will come and then it will be fine chips because the combat value can’t drop any lower (maybe over the limit so I won’t write about fine chips).
Not fun for Ukraine either but if the sledgehammers are pulled from the active front and resting, they have a functioning supply chain and keep warm, tents are all well and good but you mostly hang out in basements and houses that are somewhat intact. We always stayed in tents partly because it was not possible to take over houses in peacetime and to learn to camp since everyone could sleep in a house.
HIMARS against the Russian rear is very effective during the fighting pause, now the Russians will spread out so as not to be too attractive targets and then they have fewer heat sources so the combat value decreases.
If the Russians have now left an undefended zone closest to the Dnipro because of Ukrainian artillery, then that artillery has probably been moved to another front, the Southern front for example?
Then there is full speed across the Dnipro now with Ukrainian reconnaissance, fun that the bubble delivered immediately. It is a threat to the Southern front and if it becomes too big the Russians must both pull units from another front and then send them up by road against the Ukrainian defense at the left bank of the Dnipro (eastern side) which is under its own artillery umbrella and has a direct line to CAS – the mother of all BTG grills.