11:41 – Johan No.1
Below is actually the worst-case scenario that we have not seen because Ukraine does the impossible every day – but it is the scenario the EU should have prepared for.
The EU has been dragging its feet and letting Ukraine take the full hit, but there is a limit for Ukraine as well, not everyone wants Ukraine to win and they of course hope to force this limit. If Ukraine does not get the support they rightfully, and most reasonably, demand, there is a risk that they choose to give up a piece of land in exchange for calm on all fronts. A territorial concession, a ceasefire, anything gives Putin exactly the straw he desperately seeks – then King Julien and his court survive and can prepare for round two in peace.
Now this is a self-fulfilling prophecy – Yes, Sweden now needs its CV90s because Russia is going into war economy with the sole purpose of continuing the aggression and China will support Russia materially, economically, and further. The little rogue group with Iran, Belarus, Russia, China, and Rocket Man is starting to smell morning air if there is a ceasefire or territorial concession. Rocket Man has a mysterious war with himself but someday he will probably turn his weapons against South Korea – you get far with missiles, as he has just discovered.
Don’t for a second think the story is as we hear it over there in Russia and Asia. The story they have been told is that Putin took on all of NATO and won, we must be very clear about that. That does not mean Xi believes it but it means they get a win against NATO, even if small, and it strengthens the darkest of souls.
It is quite messy down in the Balkans, Turkey, Hungary, and Serbia are all-in with Russia. We really cannot stop any of those countries from allying with Russia. Macedonia is probably starting to look for a way out here and swearing eternal loyalty to Putin may be the least painful when no one else helps. If Russia plays its cards right, they have a foothold down in the Balkans that they can exploit.
Macron and Scholz will of course applaud peace in whatever form it comes and immediately there will be discussion about peace in our time and disarmament in the EU. A democracy is no stronger than a simple majority vote and defense budgets can quickly disappear and contracts can be cut. Especially in severe recessions.
The electricity crisis will escalate in the EU and next winter will surely be worse than this one – why would Putin give up his most effective weapon against the EU?
The recession is around the corner and now, admittedly, Russia is in poor shape but if it becomes a full 90s crisis, there may be some truth in what Russia itself claims – they can absorb the blow better than the West.
Russian subversive activity on steroids we can safely assume, if they can torture-murder small children, then subversive activity in the EU is no big deal?
We could have avoided all this if Russia had suffered a humiliating defeat last autumn or this winter.
11:51 – Johan No.1
When I read the article, one could not help but reflect on how little the country Sweden has contributed compared to what Ukraine has endured and what the old Eastern states have delivered. Doing the right thing was easier than doing wrong this time, so really fail-safe, but it did not seem to matter. The World Food Programme is probably happy for the contribution, so not everything is pitch black, one must rejoice in the small things.
What could have made a difference risks becoming irrelevant – we have the world’s best weapons but apparently don’t want them to be used in war, that seems to be the logic. As a taxpayer, I feel cheated and want my money back over this false advertising.
It’s almost good if Sweden’s defense of the cohabitant continues on the front pages of newspapers and the Tide Team with Fluffe at the forefront and the opposition with the master-destroyer MP shouting, talking, and fighting through the entire term, because then at least they can’t cause any real damage like shutting down the last nuclear power plant or demilitarizing Gotland to protect all Gotlanders (maybe they’re called Gutar or is that derogatory?).
Worst case, it will probably be Macron waving the paper and proclaiming peace in our time because he slept through history lessons when he comes off the government plane from his visit to Moscow. He seems like that kind of guy through and through, almost makes you hope the Russians get to Paris on the first try so he gets the whole world history right in his lap immediately.
A winter offensive by a Ukraine that hasn’t received enough help from an overstuffed EU standing between Cold War 2.0 with the risk of World War 3.0 or peace in our time for real was not something anyone believed a few months ago. The West has really gotten terrible analysts and politicians completely without backbone, integrity, or self-awareness.
Sorry for the rant but it got out of hand, now it will be positive going forward. I’ll try to find more Russian Santas who have cage fights to make Dengamle happy. We continue cheering on Ukraine to the victory they believe they can achieve, anything is better than a life under the Russian boot with a broken heel and they are certainly on a good path even if they have to do far too much themselves and the suffering they go through is incomprehensible.
Luckily it’s Friday so I can rush to the systembolaget and have a chance to counter this and work my way back up. Before I start fiddling with the mash, it will be the first ice skating with the little guy, thanks to Ukraine we can still live our lives in peace and freedom.
(this was the polished version)
12:08 – MatsExtrude
+100
12:18 – Johan No.1
This is how I think – see the EU/Europe as one country and compare with Sweden. Do we need a tank brigade in Grövelsjön or one in Gävle?
Do the UK, Belgium, Holland, Portugal, et al. really need tanks or should they be sent to the EU borders before the border moves closer to the UK, Belgium, Holland, Portugal, et al.?
Assuming that behind closed doors they are not preparing for Belgium to attack Holland or the UK to go after Portugal?
13:01 – Johan No.1
Many different sources but I guess roughly –
Robots are starting to be in short supply.
They have enough artillery and ammunition.
They have MBTs and IFVs for at least one more major offensive.
Command and key personnel – shortage.
Men in uniform – no problem but getting them to fight in units and function, problem.
They have around 150,000 left that they can shape into capable units and a couple hundred thousand more that they need to train between now and the spring offensive.
Then the wildcard Belarus which can go either way but one should probably assume they are conjuring a threat from Belarus to tie up Ukrainian units.
14:22 – Johan No.1
TW, Lysychansk was the big sour day, had a bit of headwind there until Ukraine announced they were retreating 😃
Ukraine has been begging for armor for a long time now and they attack low on armor. They are making the best of what they have.
The Russians are not all lying freezing in a ditch, they have built fortifications too.
We must reach down to Azov and northern Luhansk this winter or Putin will get a good start in the spring. Probably the West must deliver more than they do today but I’m not sure.
However, I am sure that this is how the EU and Sweden must think because if you gamble and Ukraine can’t manage it then it’s serious.
14:28 – Johan No.1
It’s normal risk analysis and you can never lean back and gamble that Ukraine will manage this.
They should have already received armor.
19:30 – Johan No.1
Courage is not lacking among the Ukrainian infantry.
Detected but attempt to shoot with a man-portable anti-tank weapon at a tank at the closest distance.
Hope the soldier survived.
https://twitter.com/mdfzeh/status/1603717687489724416?s=20&t=4yD3xGVQ9-bNvKcYJn4Vdw
19:32 – Johan No.1
Pro-Russian account maybe?
11:40 – Johan No.1
Yesterday we received a very unfortunate article from someone who knows – Zaluzhny. Of course, he is not just sitting and talking freely and thoughtlessly, every word is weighed carefully and approved, and it was not just any publication, plus it is signal politics, Ukraine wants something so that car sales can start again.
-UA needs armor and combat vehicles to be able to retake the terrain up to February 23, 2022.
-The Russians are preparing for an offensive this winter (could he be referring to Belarus?).
-He estimates 200,000 men.
-That motivation is fleeting and that terror bombings leave their marks (of course they do!).
I want to start by pointing out that there are three alternatives this winter – the Russians hold their positions, they are pushed back at strategic points for the worst possible start in spring, or they lose in Ukraine.
A winter offensive is brewing from Ukraine. We have no definitive answer before it has been going on for a while, so see the following as criticism of those who do nothing rather than that we are heading into darkness; one never takes chances with something like this, there must be suspenders, a belt, and epoxy glue if one has been entrusted to steer a country.
-You remember the constant discussion about Ukraine holding maneuver brigades in reserve but that all are now at active front lines more or less. If they have trouble countering a Russian attack this winter or get stuck early, we have reached the point where it is time to be worried.
-If they go on the offensive and manage to get down to Azov without the Russians stopping them, they are heading for a knockout win that would save the free West, but for that, the West should start delivering offensive weapons and we are already at Christmas.
For the spring offensive, I have thought that the Russian side had 150,000 soldiers left from the start of the war and early small mobilizations whom they are now resting and equipping while the latest round of mobilized must die, so 200,000 sounds perhaps reasonable for competent units, but the total will probably be much larger, especially if there is a threat from Belarus that ties up Ukrainian troops.
Now it seems that Zelehny’s Russian winter offensive is from Belarus, however, and it probably hangs quite loosely except if they run around on the Belarusian side and throw grenades just over the border. Something will naturally happen at the Belarusian border because that would be smart, but a full offensive down towards Kiev is unlikely and zero chance it would succeed.
There have been a couple in this thread who screamed falsetto for CV90s until it was almost spam. The explanations for why Ukraine does not need them and why they cannot be sent have been very creative. Repair in Boden was among the better ones, another was that Ukraine got what they wanted – 250 million SEK to the World Food Programme and porridge jackets.
We have also often discussed the low point in early autumn before the mud set in and that it was Ukraine’s chance to deliver a decisive blow. Now it became Izyum, Kherson, and Lyman instead but unfortunately not Azov. The chess move is sadly absent and Ukraine did what they could.
We hoped that Ukraine had received Western armor secretly for the autumn offensive and got a bit excited a few times when we grabbed onto incorrect information, but the truth was that nothing was delivered.
It seems that both Western armor and the low point were correct analyses if you go by the article. During a Winter War 2.0, anything can happen but one should not take chances as a person in a position of responsibility.
If the thread could reach the conclusion that Western armor is needed and that the low point was early autumn, then reasonably well-paid strategists and analysts around the EU should have been able to figure out the same thing, and after all, it is Europe’s future at stake.