10:00 – Johan No.1
Very high signal value.
10:23 – Johan No.1
The Czech Republic or Slovakia shall/want to send their entire air force.
Of course Germany can send Leo2, everyone understands that, but they don’t want to. How many is another question but a company would show Putin that he no longer has Germany’s support and be worth as much as a thousand.
As far as I can see, you are the only one who has written AMX and main battle tank in the same sentence in the thread?
Everyone else talks in terms of armored vehicles or IFVs?
The point is that it is just like the Bradley from the upper shelves – signal politics.
15:08 – Johan No.1
It was Slovakia, Paul, they were one and the same once upon a time 😀
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/12/13/slovakia-readies-transfer-of-upgraded-mig-29-warplanes-to-ukraine/#:~:text=WARSAW%2C%20Poland%20%E2%80%94%20In%20a%20potentially,coordination%20with%20the%20United%20States.
16:24 – Johan No.1
Have to sneak in a correction, Warrior is apparently not delivered by the UK but only Spartan, I had really mixed that up. Also saw that the Vatican’s support is two Cardinals who have gone to Ukraine to give “spiritual support” – everyone gives what they can 😀
Yesterday’s post should also have included “conversion kits” for both artillery and air ammunition to convert them into smart ammunition – the amount of guided ammunition is probably at least maintained as the more advanced ones are consumed, could it even be increasing? They have also taken the step into digital battle management or whatever it’s called, we read the other day, and can direct fire of dumb ammunition with drones very effectively. The fact is that Ukraine is the very definition of making the best of what they have, every day.
If you are to learn anything, it is probably that, I recall it was roughly the same approach in the military service – “solve the task” and that “a decision is better than no decision”, but without comparing our results with Ukraine’s for our final exercises one would rather forget. Black holes we of course drove down at Revingehed.
The result of all the HIMARS strikes on bases in the past week/weeks will quite quickly result in spreading out the units. I have guessed that they have them gathered because they do not have power supply so they run a big generator for a company/battalion – that will soon be over.
Then comes step two, groups or platoons will try to keep warm and then they have to fire instead. Over to the drones that see smoke columns to the earth mounds kilometers away. Probably they bunch up by platoon, it is never possible to keep Russians in a hole away from the warmth and cheap vodka, such an attractive combo it probably is.
– welcome 777.
Then step three where heat sources become completely forbidden when 777 has rampaged around and they freeze to death instead. Steps 1-3 are all fantastic and a real morale booster that really warms. Some similarity with the Winter War is expected where they sit frozen to death in clusters when Ukraine walks around filming captured defense systems when it gets cold.
The latest black spot is probably the mobilization.
A round of mobilization in Russia I can imagine goes through for now even if there is grumbling, probably depends a bit on how hard they push. Never that Belarus succeeds, that would be revolution on the day which is positive because they actually seem to be considering mobilizing the masses completely without historical awareness.
Don’t know what time and exactly how the Russians celebrate January 6 (guessing that for a Russian soldier in Ukraine it largely involves securing vodka, onions, bread and pickled cucumbers?).
Or maybe we have misunderstood how they celebrate and it is not like a Swedish New Year’s Day or Midsummer Day?
Personally, I think their normal state is high intoxication and if they have reasons for a big party to forget a soaking wet hole, many will probably take it if given the chance. On New Year’s, Ukraine took the opportunity to knock out all celebrations they could find.
The feeling when swirling around in the swamp is that the fights for positioning and pre-attack have been going on quite a while and that it absolutely can be time for a winter offensive.
Old classics like the revolving door, the chess move and crossing the Dnieper are all possible?
If we learned anything at Izyum it was that the Russians run a defense line instead of deep defense but there should be a defense line NS through Starobilsk with VDV. Are they prepared to sacrifice them or do they pull them back when it starts to get tough?
However, that does not prevent Ukraine from swinging down towards the city of Luhansk and the defense line down there before Starobilsk. Erik14 posted a beautiful piece of information that the 2nd Army (Luhansk rebels) is starting to be ready to give up if the city of Luhansk is threatened. At the VE line through Luhansk there is probably also VDV reasonably but there could be quite large gaps in the defense if the 2nd Army switches sides (have for quite a while felt that it is time for LPR and DPR to switch sides).
Ukraine will absolutely not miss the chance for a winter offensive and now the frost is probably starting to come slowly.
And on top of that, they now talk in terms of a spring offensive and total victory, the confidence is very noticeable.
Just a matter of time before the Russians give up and the geopolitical atomic bomb really goes off, so far Russia has been able to keep up the illusion that they are an active party in a war and that there are different ways forward. The day they are thrown out of Ukraine the whole world will have black on white that their bite tickles a little at worst. A driving party in the attempt to create a counterweight to the free West disappears, the threat everyone everywhere has had hanging over them becomes significantly smaller and the interesting thing is probably not what Russia does next but how the thoughts go in China.
For China, this is probably like if Italy and Japan had been knocked out of WW2 already early 1940 (I know…) and they have to choose between continuing completely alone or de-escalating.
If I were China, I would start thinking in terms of Siberia instead of Taiwan, no one will probably care about a Russia-China war out in Siberia after this but if they go for Taiwan they know very well that the West will intervene. China will probably do some parliament fire with shelling over the border on some Chinese villages and then it is a very offensive self-defense all the way up to the Arctic Ocean that applies and crying at the UN about Russia’s constant aggression 😀
There was a long discussion about Leopard today (thought the Czechs’ order was new but was wrong) and I am starting to wonder if South Korea will come out winning from this if Western countries refuse to increase their production one year into the war.
They have full production of their K2 which, among others, Poland buys, a modern main battle tank and South Korea likes both production and export.
They also have an IFV with a 40mm autocannon that looks like they got hold of the blueprints for the CV90.
As well as a nice tracked howitzer and a brand new fighter jet.
Feels like they have exactly the weapon systems all NATO countries will be clamoring for in the future when it comes to western equipping them.
If countries in Europe don’t want to produce and sell, there is naturally an opening for those who want to, and South Korea doesn’t seem to be sitting idle at all, K2 was even up for evaluation in Norway.
16:30 – MatsExtrude
+100 Well written (as always)!
16:49 – Johan No.1
The old communist states are not the best of friends and it was close sometime in the 60s and in recent years they have had minor conflicts with India a couple of times which are ongoing, usually resulting in Indians being beaten to death with spiked clubs.
But yes, I actually believe in de-escalation as a result of this.
They will absolutely tie all -stans they can to themselves and maybe even future liberated provinces, that’s their sphere of interest and it’s almost negligence if they didn’t do that.
17:01 – Johan No.1
There are two sides to that story – one version is that the Germans did not approve and the other is that the Spaniards can’t handle maintenance. First we were told that the Germans did not approve and after that came information that Spain had not maintained the vehicles so they couldn’t be sent.
I’m thinking that if Ukraine’s workshops can manage to bring burned-out Eastern Bloc vehicles full of holes and with remains of grilled crews back to life, they should together with Poland be able to revive a bunch of Leo1s that have been in storage?
17:07 – Johan No.1
I have fairly reliable information that Ukraine doesn’t need them, can’t repair them, can’t handle the maintenance chains and that they have already received everything on their wish lists.
Good for Putin’s stomach ulcer if Marders come too. One theory I’ve had is that they would get away with delivering a company of Leo2s if they manage to keep quiet. They go out with a promise of 500 Leo2s and a credible plan on how it will be done and deliver the first company at the right time as seen in Ukraine. If this is done as a neat psyops and they let countries make their preparations for transport, i.e. put them on trains and drive eastward but everything takes time, then the lie might hold and the Russians believe that Western armor is coming. There’s nothing stopping them from standing on a staging area for two months due to lack of trains?
22:54 – Johan No.1
Seems like the floodgates opened today with offensive weapons?
Marder, Bradley and French as well as Patriot from Germany as has been written about in the thread.
Germany has also promised “armor” (could be a language misunderstanding).
Wild guess is that there will soon be a competition to announce the most.
Excellent signal politics and exactly what Putin didn’t want to hear, everything that increases Ukraine’s offensive capability is a nightmare trip.
Macron has already in capitals declared that he stands with Ukraine to victory and I expect tougher German rhetoric pretty soon, otherwise I’ll be surprised.
Macron is probably a pretty good litmus test of which way the wind is blowing.
It’s moving fast now, a few weeks ago Germany needed their Patriots for their own defense and today they are fine to send.
MBTs are probably not far off 😀👍
23:07 – Johan No.1
Finland has hinted about Leo and the UK promises “armor”.
09:59 – Johan No.1
Signal value from Macron and also Biden about Bradley.
By the way, Scholz’s criteria for Germany to send Leo2 have just been met, provided he is not very picky about the fact that AMX and Bradley are not main battle tanks and he meant main battle tanks – we shall see.
Finland next with a symbolic number of Leo2?
Belgium and the Netherlands are probably also on the way?