10:30
It was about 41 missiles this time? It was a missile attack that coincided with all-out war between Vuhledar – Kreminna and should thus have been the maximum the Russians could manage?
-A halving compared to the previous +90 times before Christmas.
There is still fighting around Soledar, Ukraine holds the Sil station and if you go west of it there are huge fields of fire again, a ravine, communities, etc. There is a next defensive line just west of Soledar is my best guess. Not everything needs to be high terrain, a ravine with a large open field in front is a fantastic defensive position.
A bit unclear how it looks in Krasna Hora and Bakhmutka but as long as they are in Ukrainian hands it’s high knees straight across the fields towards Bakhmut if you want to get in from the north and supply routes still exist to Bakhmut.
You also can’t “roll up” the defensive line northwards because there are isolated communities with open fields in between so up to Siversk they won’t get either.
Overall, they have not achieved anything of value by deploying their elite units. The losses indicate continued offensive operations. It’s almost Lysychansk all over again where it was described as a key city and war-deciding. I don’t think the defensive line as a whole will falter even if the Sil station falls and the area around it.
This Russian all-out offensive may very well have been to preempt the Ukrainian winter offensive and it may also have been ahead of the Rammstein meeting to try to persuade countries not to participate – showing Russian raw power.
Ukraine on its side has benefited from this and may have refrained from spectacular offensive operations because of the meeting (I don’t really believe that and think they are just fully occupied with the Russians right now).
The Rammstein meeting is starting to emerge as significant, that’s when they will announce what has been agreed upon in recent weeks and which made Macron try to run ahead of everyone so he almost stumbled and fell. At least the countries in JEF have shown great willingness to donate Western armor now and if you remember Zelensky’s meeting in the USA there were planes from JEF countries simultaneously in the air, someone in the thread posted that. Ukraine also announced after the meeting that a lot was underway and that they would get their offensive weapons.
Macron keeps fairly quiet, it’s really only Ålen who still pushes the line that open communication with Putin is necessary, that negotiations are important and that Germany as a country must think very long before starting to consider tanks, then investigate and finally send them in a few years.
If you remember Rwanda there is a very famous video where some White House somebody gets tangled up in whether it was genocide or not and the reporters refuse to give up, by then about 600,000 had been killed. The ethnic cleansing in Rwanda only ended when Paul Kagame’s rebels took over the whole country. They did their best but it was too little too late. The French first helped the aggressor group with weapons in some covert operation and then when the rebels started approaching Kigali the French flew out the guilty elite with their suitcases full of gold and bundles of dollars.
Then we have the Yugoslav wars where Europe struggled for several years and argued about the protest note and how it should be written while city after city was ethnically cleansed. Eventually, the USA stepped in and resolved the conflict but far too late (a very rough intentional simplification).
The UN rarely succeeds in open wars and it’s not uncommon that they have some base where all civilians flee and then when the aggressor surrounds it they leave. Every time it would have been best if the civilians had sought shelter in the forests instead. They sell protection that doesn’t exist.
Historically, the EU/USA have acted very quickly here in the Ukraine war, very quickly, but there is a quite clear difference between those who pull and those who brake right now.
When someone as big as Germany brakes it makes a difference. That they don’t allow a third country to send Leo2 means Ukraine doesn’t get Leo2 and that prolongs the war, there are a number of countries that have promised to contribute one company each now. There are many versions of this story of course but if the UK can send Challenger 2 in a week then Germany can send Leo2 in a week, right? Above all, they can let other countries reduce their capability if they want and let them send Leo2. But they don’t.
Then that they want continued open communication with Putin means Putin still believes that the Oblast war can work. Here, one must perhaps give Germany that the Oblast war as it looks right now shortens the war so a little unintentional help to Ukraine they have achieved.
France has Macron so they will naturally try to top Challenger 2 very soon, he is probably the very definition of a competitive person and the UK has just thrown a gauntlet in front of him while waving a red cape a bit and a banner that reads that the USA saved them in WW2 because they built their defense line in the wrong place.
Now I do believe the Rammstein meeting will solve everything regarding offensive weapons because it is too far gone and the Germans will give in eventually. That does not change their intention and what they cooked up at the latest party meeting which Scholz thought it was important the world should know with new words like “uncool.”
It is almost windless and the velvet hangs but a point worth making is that I believe Germany is severely damaging its relationship with the USA and the rest of the EU here and that it will be visible for many years to come.
There is no natural law that everyone must listen to Germany, buy German or sell electricity to Germany, they may have to sit in the dark with their green energy revolution ahead and their pyramids of unsellable products? Israel and South Africa got hit by that, consumers are fickle.
France seems to manage because Macron has a good ability to walk a tightrope, I probably had darker thoughts about that country than Germany.
11:29
Thinking in terms of protection, Sweden will probably be prominent on the northern flank, we provide support to Finland and the Baltics in case of war.
Poland below that which can defend itself and then Ukraine with a defense as strong as the rest of Europe.
These countries will have close cooperation going forward and we already have JEF with the UK.
On the subject of the defense of the east, Germany is almost obsolete already today?
It was sad that the UK left the EU because they were a moderate voice together with Sweden, among others. And Germany has probably pushed for a more integrated EU.
For my part, it would be an epic win if the EU went back to only encompassing free movement, free trade, a common defense interest (not an EU army), and that the self-determination of individual countries was strengthened instead of the EU’s.
15:55
If it breaks out in Kreminna, it can quickly become very tense at the Russian command. Especially since Ukraine has built up offensive capacity at the Southern front AND according to Gregg has funneled in reserves at Soledar/Bakhmut from elite units.
16:47
They have moved some units from the Southern front but the Russians are said to have done the same.
Then I just read that the Russians have reinforced the southern front, hard to know.
I’m thinking more that the critical mass is on Ukraine’s side, so if they have problems in northern Luhansk and then at Bakhmut/Soledar, they are forced to weaken the southern front further or at least not reinforce it if Ukraine presses there.
10:16
To put the shortage of key competencies into perspective, quite high officer losses.
https://twitter.com/FriaUkraina/status/1614524593657761792?s=20&t=SLOosS9uEtB3icU7N5udOA