10:54 – Johan No.1
Again, thanks Dengamle for the positive atmosphere in the thread 😀
Overall, Ukraine is riding out the February storm but there will be local setbacks where they take losses, which is very unfortunate.
This war could end tomorrow but the chief toad is sitting at a safe distance and map-warring himself into a crushing defeat all on his own. Had he focused on all terrain east of the Dnipro as the main goal already on February 24, he probably would have his peace and oblasts today, and it’s actually fortunate that he has all the characteristic dictator traits but it’s going on way too long because of that.
11:53 – MatsExtrude
+1 Regarding the situation in and around Bakhmut, it’s easy to get discouraged.
It looks grim and they seem to have difficulty stopping the Russians’ advance southwest and northeast of the city, and it doesn’t feel very reassuring, soon time to abandon the city. Do they not have the resources to resist and will they be overrun?
But I prefer to see it as them doing everything right. They are waiting until Bakhmut has served its purpose as a honey trap, then pulling out from there while continuing to wear down the Russians. They retreat and continue until the Russians are completely worn down and only then do they turn the tables. As long as it’s possible to keep their own losses low (~1:10), it’s strategically completely right as long as the overall force ratio is about equal.
You attack when you know you have a force advantage. (It’s usually mentioned that it should be 3:1). If you don’t have that, you make sure to get that advantage. If you can’t bring more of your own resources, you make sure the opponent uses theirs up faster than you do.
16:15 – Johan No.1
Here you get some attacks 😀
Until he has launched one, he hasn’t used them and everything that works in blackmail should be tested before he throws in the towel, so not entirely unreasonable at all.
A possible scenario is actually that some group says stop halfway down that rabbit hole.
Then again, “pressing the button” is a whole series of actions and I think that chain is broken but that is highly speculative and I have zero evidence for it.
10:37 – Johan No.1
Took a close look at Bakhmut yesterday and in the city there are natural obstacles so it can be abandoned in three stages if necessary. Then there are the dominant heights west of the city and it is exactly as some genius wrote in the thread, the steep side is eastward and the flat side is westward – huge advantage for Ukraine. I don’t remember who but the Nobel Prize in geology for that discovery. Not until they have taken the dominant heights can one talk about a breakthrough, until then Ukraine is just throwing stones at them.
That said, right now hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers are dying because Europe delayed offensive weapons and those who slowed down should be reminded of this often. This war has gone on far too long.
When the Russians achieve a local superiority and manage some kind of breakthrough it is always critical for the last group out who have to run like mad along the ditches hoping they don’t get run over on the way.
If one were to guess what will happen going forward now –
Russia is going all-in right now with one purpose, it could be to show strength ahead of negotiations, that they believe they can freeze the war if they just take Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts, that China has promised some support if it goes better than so far – something like that.
It could also be that Putin has completely lost it and that would be fantastic but one probably dares not hope for that.
Ukraine is definitely biding its time here, their army brigades are the same in number as the Russians have mobilized but they defend 1:10 where the Russians attack. The other 9 soldiers are offensive reserve (1:10 is the constant figure flying around in all the information we get and which I lean on, the numbers are from Ukrainian Forbes and open sources).
At the southern front it has calmed down, 8 BTGs were exhausted but at the same time the Russians have brought forward reinforcements so offensive operations are likely soon. 8 new BTGs have been brought up if I understand correctly but also as the blogger writes a larger force buildup in the area.
Up in northern Luhansk unfortunately it is full throttle and I think Ukraine has difficulty holding out as they have done at Bakhmut and Soledar due to the terrain. Surely some unit(s) have been or will be overrun and the Russians parade this in the media as a huge victory.
I am sitting and wondering if there will be a Ukrainian LOCAL counter-move during Feb-March, partly because an opening presents itself but also to break the illusion that Russia is achieving relative success. Remember that Zelensky is supposed to talk with Biden and Poland now in February and there are still many deliveries left. It could be a counteroffensive at Bakhmut, Soledar, Vuhledar for example or something up in northern Luhansk. It goes somewhat hand in hand with the earlier discussion about Ukraine’s winter offensive which is now completely on pause because the Russians are going full speed ahead with everything they have.
The offensive up in northern Luhansk unfortunately seems to have started along the entire front and there is a corresponding force buildup there as behind the southern front.
The sad truth is probably that UA needs to show strength so that the West does not start looking around and above all continue delivering their armor, so many are waiting for Ukraine to get beaten and for us to go back to pre-February 24.
Then Russian attacks have actually been mechanized where they still have it, below two videos are from pro-Russian Slava showing marine infantry attacks at Vuhledar. They do not hold back on armor at all but use what they have – but they are seriously short on armor.
https://t.me/intelslava/44092?single
https://t.me/intelslava/44093?single
Now I will try not to get flayed here in the thread. I get downhearted when I see these videos, these are units with a proud tradition attacking according to Russian doctrine but without the numbers. What we see in the videos is today completely wiped out – both 40th and 155th went to zero. They have probably lived in an information bubble and in their orders hear that the Ukrainian defense is on the verge of breaking, just one hard attack more is all that is needed and that they are best suited etc. They do the best they can, with diesel smoke and entire brigades loyally forward. The defense is naturally strong enough with infantry fighting vehicles, tanks, indirect fire and mines and they probably die before they even reach the defense systems.
Seeing the Russian dictatorship sacrifice units in this way is hard to watch, there is no longer any likelihood that they can achieve even a frozen front or any kind of negotiated solution, all are sacrificed for nothing.
Every day one wishes the Russian army has had enough, finishes off the Kadyrovites and leaves Ukraine. Every day one wishes the Russian population comes to terms with the dictatorship. That probably won’t happen but one wants the blue team to win also in Russia, “the Russian spring”.
The whole war is among the most unnecessary I have seen and a man’s despotism.
I have not switched to Putin’s side with my reflections above but try to nuance a bit that the Russian dictatorship strikes against everything and everyone.
Naftali Bennett first said that Putin promised not to kill Zelensky as someone posted yesterday and now that it is the West that destroyed the peace talks – right now Naftali Bennett sounds like a Putin mouthpiece, why do we think that?
He is the former prime minister of Israel and I have to say that a bigger non-news is hard to find. Will his next statement be that Russia actually did not want war?
Then German media have made an attempt at some kind of damage control and blame slow Leopard deliveries on everyone but themselves in a whole bunch of articles. If there is something lower than trying to throw Ukraine to the wolves it is then not taking their damn responsibility and trying to shift the blame, many -1 on that attempt.
And then there is a total PR turnaround for Germany – “we have not found evidence that Russia blew up NS1-2”. The truth is probably that they have no idea who did it so why acquit Russia?
I recall that there were Russian ships in the area, a Russian submarine had left home port and some kind of explosive residues were found. Indications are not proof but one should absolutely not acquit Russia in the way they have done with those indications unresolved.
We continue with some new statements, after all it is a new year,
Reading first the article about Macron it is in my opinion balanced, “Ukraine chose when they start to negotiate and until then we provide weapons, go blue”.
https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/02/05/french-foreign-ministry-reveals-macron-called-putin-at-the-request-of-ukraines-zelenskyy/
Then we have Scholz – the overall message he wants to push out is that Western weapons will not be used for attacks on Russian soil – why this is the most important thing for him to communicate in the forest of other important positions and pieces of information he could have communicated instead only he knows?
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/02/05/Zelenskyy-agrees-that-western-arms-supply-to-Ukraine-do-not-hit-Russia-Scholz-says-
Either Scholz has the world’s worst PR team or he still envisions a post-Ukraine scenario where relations with Russia can be normalized – which they cannot.
Alternatively, he might be eyeing China and doesn’t want to upset them, which is also a misguided thought.
Both of these positions are bad for the EU.
Macron has obviously understood which side to stand on here, but Germany still has a really hard time navigating this new landscape post-February 24.
And yes, the rule applies that no matter how much positive you do, a major misstep overshadows everything, and here it’s a misstep every week, with something positive in between. Like an addict who constantly relapses.
Chuck Pfarrer (who is a highly debatable source..) has posted an investigation regarding Russian money to get Western politicians to make pro-Russian statements, a bunch of rogue states – and Germany.
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1622242823125798913?s=20&t=3F4Ep2wDCaDuzyEXHAtPCw
I feel like I see how Germany (and maybe France) are on their way to becoming marginalized. France is slowly beginning to understand where this is heading, but Germany seems completely clueless. JEF is taking over security together with the USA, and in EU matters there are strong forces against Germany and France’s dominance; the charm of the EU is that every country has a voice.
Now someone god in the thread wrote that it’s 250 CV90s for Ukraine – that will make a huge difference together with 100 Bradleys and 30 Marders. As a Swede, it’s almost overwhelming to handle all the feelings when our excellent armored vehicle becomes almost the standard vehicle for Ukraine’s spring offensive. The USA could have sent 1000 Bradleys and that would have been it.
Naturally, huge PR for the country Sweden and for the weapon system, maybe a pity that it’s BAE Systems making the profits but the jobs probably come to Sweden?
Ukraine’s spring offensive is unstoppable once it gets going. Since Putin is Putin, it will start just as he has exhausted everything that could be used in defense. Then we have a battering ram of Leo2 followed by the world’s best armored vehicle.
Seems like 441 vehicles promised minus the Czechs’ Excalibur upgrades, of course not everything will come at once and probably a lot will need refurbishment but it should get going during the year. Also doesn’t seem like the South America delivery is included here?
https://twitter.com/FriaUkraina/status/1622338750800855043?s=20&t=Vur7kDeJ0WfxMMK04gGX1A
Ukraine already has 1500 vehicles according to Fria Ukraina, according to Ukrainian Forbes it was 750-1000 – I think 1500 is a bit too high as many are probably in for repairs.
Seems like Shoigu’s bodyguard is in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1621396805324869632?s=20&t=4ilTgZDQo-hf0D6s8TPUmw
This is significant because I have been convinced that the half a million from various agencies, private armies, and contractors would be held back, but Shoigu may have fallen out of favor?
If they start taking them out now, Russia will become quite empty, who will control the masses?
If we take a step back here – the entire Russian army is basically in Ukraine and the remaining units that existed a year ago are maybe 100,000 men.
Now they are starting to deploy units that are absolutely crowd-control and private life insurance in Russia.
This is not going well at all.
The army is actually a bit like that camel, if you hit them too hard they will quickly deal with the Kadyrovites, SOBR, and whatever other barrier battalions they have but they are still chewing grass. I think it will start with the VDV and that is quite high on the list now.