11:14 – MatsExtrude
+1
Interesting thoughts about what the war might lead to for both Belarus and Russia. Possibly Moldova will also be affected, and one can wonder if Georgia will eventually act if it turns out that Russia actually splits up. Anyway, the more unrest spread there, the better.
I think it’s a bit of a shame that Ukraine has to attack with M113s but it works, so why not (you take what you have)!
11:21 – Johan No.1
It’s completely tragic, glorified milk cartons 😬
11:46 – Johan No.1
I also believe that is the place for beta testing all Western armor 😀
They have pulled brigades towards Bakhmut, 6 or a bit more.
If we had heard about long columns of tanks, we probably would have if they moved everything.
There were pretty consistent sources about what was pushed in there.
I guess the terrain is too difficult for them, that it’s cold and low combat value, and that command and control has problems with so many units in a small area.
If they have drained northern Luhansk it would be sensational but I don’t dare to hope for it yet, or I Friday-hope that it’s true.
11:47 – MatsExtrude
They are supposed to get a bunch of Strykers too, will surely see them attack with those as well.
A bit dominant anyway to chase the Russians away with milk cartons and sardine cans.
12:06 – Johan No.1
No, probably not.
So far the brigades have fought at battalion strength in different places, so it’s not unreasonable that 4th Tank sends 1-2 companies of Leos to Kreminna and someone else pools in CV90s and Bradleys, or if 4th Tank also gets them?
Then they fill out with territorial infantry and the elite brigades up there, so they probably have a good punch.
Ukraine is ridiculously good at fighting with combined arms task forces now and it’s really not easy but war does wonders for rivalry and loyalty.
12:08 – Johan No.1
Exactly, what a day when you get to see the drone video with CV90 in combat, then it becomes an instant party.
13:05 – MatsExtrude
You have to find a good hiding place for a bag of chips so you have it ready when that day comes!
But don’t do like the woman in Kherson who hid the Ukrainian flag under a stone slab. Then there are only crumbs left..
15:25 – Johan No.1
A whole train of old junk, going well now 👍
https://twitter.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1631568915984789506?s=46&t=1rBj5Qfh_O-wmv1noLExOQ
15:52 – MatsExtrude
That was 20 cans, nothing to worry about.
Otherwise liked the turret they passed. Made me think of some game I’ve played but can’t remember what it was.. Felt medieval anyway. Just a bit older than the Scooby Doo buses (good term SALLAD!).
10:44 – Johan No.1
My bubble list went to hell yesterday.
I was somewhat torn about the rebel film and was going to write that the eliminated Mainstay and the drone swarm we haven’t dreamed up at least, but I do think LW has sorted it out to the point where one can reasonably consider the Bryansk incident genuine?
The first reaction to the rebel film was that, and you should trust your gut feeling they say, it never works with those damn scratch cards but suddenly it happens 😀
I was watching Rybar and according to him UA regularly infiltrates across the border, which is long and impossible to defend. You could probably figure that out without Rybar.
Moreover, we have several times received information that UA has infiltrated across the border. There have been films before and some explosions that were not long-range drones.
If you look beyond the war and when Ukraine can once again defend its border – I suspect that Russia has poked the wrong hornet’s nest and that Ukraine will help its sisters and brothers in Belarus and Russia on a voluntary basis quite intensively going forward.
Looking at Ukraine’s security, it would be best if Russia was split up because it is quite clear that the country Russia as it is today will withdraw, lick its wounds and then try again.
Belarus was on the brink of falling, Lukashenko stood on the palace steps in a bulletproof vest and the latest AK flanked by his two sons in bulletproof vests and the latest AK and looked murderous.
The country Russia is completely unmanageable in size and the ruling elite coldly counts on the curtain never falling and showing how weak they are and how strong the people are.
Lots of explosions all over Russia and videos from Russian rebel groups calling for revolution are probably a bigger threat to Putin than both the Ukraine war and NATO combined.
What do you think the Belarusian and Russian brigades will do when the war in Ukraine is over, start growing potatoes?
Yesterday we got a first gust suggesting what it might look like when Russia turns inward and how uncontrollable the country is.
Imagine if a rebel group got to RASTA outside Jönköping and stood live streaming for a few hours, they would be arrested during the live broadcast.
Above all, if I were a large size mash jug Russian oligarch, I would start thinking about damage control and retreating from Ukraine before there is a revolution in Belarus and Russia at the same time.
Have you thought about how the Russians’ ability to prevent revolution in Belarus drastically decreases if UA manages to stir up popular revolution in the country Russia at the same time?
Otherwise, there is the risk that they send in too much from all agencies that can suppress a popular uprising.
You can’t put too much weight on one incident and I am absolutely way too positive but it’s also Friday and soon I will go to Citygross for chips and some Czech beers with a bit of luck.
Russia is extremes at both ends – incredible sluggishness and three revolutions in under 100 years.
It is quite clear that the country is a powder keg and if you manage to find the fuse and figure out how to light it, you get a party for a whole week and purged nobility.
Ukraine is not a reasoning West either, they are Ukraine. They don’t need to be either.
Personally, I am probably in favor of the country being broken up so that a future Russian threat becomes significantly more manageable.
Just the Wikipedia page on Russia’s wars is enough to start feeling that way, the page is very long.
However, the “must happen” horizon extends until Russia is thrown out of Ukraine with the last washing machine.
I now understand why UA does not let go of Bakhmut – they deny the Russians a single excuse to win and then they start a campaign against targets inside Russia and maximum trolling – excellent.
According to earlier, northern Luhansk will keep going and Erik14 posted a video yesterday where UA advances in the forest southwest of Kreminna with vehicles – the ground holds and of the 130,000 defending Russians not much was seen.
Defmon has 4 VDV regiments in those forests so how UA can advance is a difficult mystery.
UA absolutely does not have the numbers on their side but elite brigades and a hell of a lot of SOF who put on night vision goggles and hunt Russians in pits. I also got the impression that SBU/GUR are up there doing what they do best without being seen.
Looking at the map, what they have pushed into northern Luhansk, and the proximity to reserves and supply, I get the distinct feeling that you have to press constantly over time in that area and that the best time is now – one meter at a time and one dead Russian in a pit at a time.
Waiting and preparing for a spring offensive will only end with the Russians managing to dig in too well.
Erik14’s film yesterday was close to what we wrote the other day – SOF clears and then infantry comes in light vehicles and finally some heavier ones and so they work their way forward in the covered areas.
We had an interesting discussion from the conscientious objector that the Ukrainian officers know exactly how the Russian counterparts think and can get inside their decision circle every time.
Then Erikg and Grankovich wrote about how UA places mines that fool the Russians’ mine rollers and take them out – UA obviously has detailed knowledge of Russian mine rollers and then they mix mines they got from the West with their own into a deadly bag of popcorn.
The miracle at Vuhledar and the upcoming big naval battle at Zaporiznye will be exactly that – they fool the socks off the Russian commander of the attack and it ends in a WhatsApp video with a smoky tank crew promising to fight to the last shell while the turret flies in the background and the loader is completely bandaged.
I thought that discussion gave a piece of knowledge and one was happy to have learned something useful.
I also think further that since the Russians are infinitely unadaptable, UA knows exactly how their defense will look and they can now mix and match as they want with all the equipment they have received for their upcoming spring offensive – unstoppable.
Then SOF knows exactly how a Russian soldier patrols at night, standard guard duty routine and all that – pretty sure the Russians follow their soldier’s little red book to the letter. That also means they are always one step ahead when they are out hunting.
In northern Luhansk I mostly see 130,000 game if they don’t get going soon.
I am starting to feel that focus on Bakhmut can be dropped now, UA has this under control and it will probably be a delaying battle through the city if RU presses harder than they can hold back. I base that on how they fought in Severodonetsk and that UA carried out counterattacks along road M03 from the north as we guessed and then that Deepstate has completely stalled.
It is quite clear that the Russians did not manage to exploit their breakthrough and then they have deployed VDV and Spetsnaz as well as “real” Wagner – the best they have.
Here you have the price for 155mm HE – 500USD for unguided. Someone else suggests 800USD if, like me, you’ve been wondering what a shell costs.
https://www.quora.com/How-much-does-a-155mm-HE-round-cost
LW clarified the concepts very pedagogically in the blog post and also thought it was worth a discussion.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1631400043818131456?cxt=HHwWgICxpcjs8qMtAAAA
Put it up on the screen for a bit better detail.
It’s a tank laying down smoke, so he must have been up front first and reasonably placed a lot of explosives on the target?
Then it’s probably a platoon of M113s, 4 of them, advancing in line. There’s no 30mm anyway, because then you would have seen the “smoke” from their firing of larger calibers.
The shooting unloads and advances in turns, it seems?
Nighttime or daytime?
We always learned to drive straight up to the attack objective (almost…) and then unload and advance the last 50m-100m or so into the defense system on foot with support from the vehicles.
One thought I’ve had about UA not doing that and unloading far earlier in open fields is that maybe according to Russian doctrine they place mines just before some Xm in front of their defense systems and that UA knows about it?
Or maybe there’s some magical distance for RPGs to be accurate or something, but that sounds a bit far-fetched and there is also a minimum distance before a fired anti-tank weapon activates, 50-60m something, right?
As I wrote under Erik14’s comment – advancing a platoon across open fields and taking an attack objective in the way they succeeded in the video, I think always ended in orange juice mixers for us during exercises, so clearly what they do works at least as well as what we were taught, probably much better.
The real-time information situation must be a big factor, I think, we always had to guess what was in the attack objective more or less and if the B force managed to sneak in a tank or some other surprise like unexpected mines on some advance route or a vehicle with a missile, it always went badly. Just as we tried to do the unexpected, the B force always did that, it was kind of the whole point to always try to get inside the opponent’s decision cycle.
It feels like Ukraine has reached wizard level in most things, I think, and Militaryland is starting to post training videos from the armored brigades, so clearly it is an army in intensive and lively training for an unstoppable spring offensive here.
Compare that with the Russians’ medium size meat can and sledgehammer preparations…