It is not too far-fetched to imagine that the USA has sources close to Putin.
Putin, of course, knows these spies, or that they are playing a double game and conveying exactly what Putin wants them to convey. Through these sources, Putin has ensured that his message is conveyed.
He will not hesitate to send nuclear weapons and start a world war if Russia feels threatened enough. The threat may also possibly apply if the West actively sends soldiers into Ukraine.
These threats are repeated through these back channels every time the West has done something that has worsened the situation for Russia, or when Ukraine has achieved too much success. Much of it is also repeated through the usual propaganda channels.
Of course, the information picked up by these sources is then passed on to Biden and then on to the leaders in the West.
This would explain why Biden said no to deep attacks into Russia, why Scholz has not dared to release Taurus, and why the West has not dared to send soldiers even to monitor the border with Belarus, etc.
Many seem to take the threat seriously.
Other countries, like Sweden, seem to have assessed the threat differently as we allow Ukraine to decide how to use the weapons. On the other hand, we have not sent anything deep into Russia, and we have not sent any soldiers. Britain also seems not to care much about it.
The threat or threats have simply led to the goal of slowly bleeding out Russia until they are simply forced to give up.
Of course, Zelensky has also been informed about this. He does not take the threats seriously; for him, it is just one of the many red lines that must be crossed.
To prove this, he has constantly done everything he can to cross all the red lines. It started with Russian freedom fighters entering Russia, then they began to strike refineries and depots deep into Russia.
Unfortunately, this was not enough to convince everyone that Putin’s threats were empty vessels that just rattled.
Finally, they attacked into Russia in Kursk, to ultimately show that Russia does not act on the threats even when Ukrainian troops are in Russia. Still, no atomic bombs fell either over Ukraine or the rest of the world.
Unfortunately, this did not help in any case. Biden, Scholz, and others still held back.
Now Trump is president and has been receiving the same information for some time.
He has been talking for a long time about the need for peace, and he is now doing it by pressuring Ukraine for concessions while at the same time welcoming Putin and Russia into the fold.
He has stopped the deliveries of weapons and even intelligence (for example, they are no longer getting target data inside Russia).
The logical thing would be to do the opposite. To finally give Ukraine all the tools they need to force Russia to give up, in order to achieve a fair and lasting peace.
Could it be that simple that Trump is simply terrified?
When he talks about the risk of WW3, he is serious; he actually believes that the risk is imminent.
He dares not go against Russia, so Ukraine has to take the hit instead.
It’s the calmest way, Ukraine can’t do much about it, and they don’t have any nuclear weapons to threaten with (as they were forced to give them up).
So, Trump is not doing what he does because he loves Putin or because there is kompromat, but simply because he is cowardly.
More cowardly than Scholz and Biden combined.
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A highly unserious (but slightly serious) alternative theory:
Before the election, Musk is said to have stated that he and Trump planned to sabotage the American economy in order to have a reason to ask people to temporarily tighten their belts and take the opportunity to dismantle the welfare system to a point where it cannot be recreated.
If the sole focus is on quickly dismantling the American economy:
– then a trade war is brilliant,
– and almost equally clever to deceive the world into boycotting one for hugging Putin, scolding allies, cheering on Ukrainian and Palestinian genocide, etc. Why not, right?
– kill the domestic arms industry by threatening not to sell ammunition
– create stock market chaos through all of the above
…Additionally, if you receive praise from dictator buddies who feed your narcissism… win-win!
…add in stoking avian flu to make egg prices skyrocket! Mm mm mm
Can absolutely be closer to the truth than my post!
Nah….it’s too conspiratorial that Trump and Musk want to destroy the American economy. Do they also want crop failure in the wheat fields of North Dakota? Are they dictators? Want to kill domestic weapon production? Create stock market chaos in the USA intentionally? It’s just too much. Calm down.
Of course it’s madness and ignorance, but at least Musk is aware that the economy will (temporarily) crash, which I actually find on X. https://x.com/whstancil/status/1851265385909092565 And the super-rich did get even richer from the pandemic crash, so there is some economic theory suggesting that the wealthy fare best in crashes.
…But that the Putin-cuddling would be related, no, that was mostly a joke. I think it’s because he’s been having his ego fed the right way by the regime for many decades. And he’s not one to like changing his opinions. Plus, it would require self-criticism to switch. And that’s just NOT possible.
Then I believe there might indeed be a component of fear. He himself can do extreme things, so it’s not unlikely that he believes his buddy Putin can do the same.
Wasn’t it Trump who squawked about Biden being the one who slaughtered all the chickens?
Otherwise, they are definitely the ones who ate all the cats and dogs and also stole the chickens.
I heard this when Ukraine entered Kursk
During the Cold War, a nuclear power could arm its proxy or attack another nuclear power’s proxy, but it never allowed its proxy to engage in combat on or otherwise attack another nuclear power’s territory. The reason was not to spread nuclear weapons.
Now we probably agree that Ukraine is not an American proxy, but now it’s about RU’s view on the matter, and they claim, among other things, to be at war with the West.
So a threat could then be to move nuclear weapons to Cuba. Such a crisis would not have been a winner for Biden.
Does anyone remember if RU moved nuclear weapons to Belarus? Wasn’t there a threat of that?
I have decided that Belarus now has Russian nuclear weapons within its borders.
A sudden analysis. Very interesting! The problem as I see it is that the USA should not take Russia’s side in that case, nor should they hand over the security of the European continent to countries like France, Germany, Poland, and the Nordic countries plus the Baltic states. We will defend ourselves regardless of red lines because, just like for Ukraine, it concerns our existence.
Taking Putin’s side would then lead to increased cohesion and determination to defend Europe, which according to the hypothesis increases the risk of a nuclear conflict.
Well, maybe Trump misunderstood and thought that we Europeans are mostly like mushy overcooked spaghetti, that we would fold immediately when big strong USA backs down. Perhaps he also believed in his own lies, those about the USA giving three to four times as much as Europe. (If that were true, it would have been much tougher to manage without their help).
He also has a touch of megalomania and of course believes that all other softies will do as he says. He is only afraid of those whom he considers bigger and stronger.
Sometimes I have thought that Americans (at least many of them) believe that this shit war in Ukraine in Russia’s backyard should not harm the business for American big corporations and asset managers like Black Rock and Goldman Sachs. I have thought I’ve seen such signs. That’s why Trump’s efforts to end the war at any cost. In that purpose, he has had to suck up to Vladimir Putin, which is strange and counterintuitive. Yes, it has completely derailed when the USA tries to control Zelensky. It is unworthy.
Has Black Rock and Goldman Sachs become woke and left the defense industry?
That’s what I think but you have to check the holdings. I don’t know how to do it.
Goldman went big on Nortvolt.
Jomenvisst. There was a trend with green stocks for a while. It was supposed to be sustainable. It sounds so good. It was politically correct back then, but like all political trends, they are actually not very sustainable. That’s my objection to feminism, woke, and DEI. They are a political morality that trends for a while, maybe 15-20 years, but then it just fizzles out. The Christian morality has been long-lasting in a completely different way.
The one you’re leaning on is not completely stupid, relying on verified information about how Biden was thinking and Rubio has probably ventilated this?
I usually write that the USA – Biden – Trump are doing the same thing, right?
As Lynx says, the red line has already been crossed for us, and as you write, Ukraine a long time ago, like 2022 😀
The USA is like the bank, not your friend
Thank you, thank you, then how verified everything is, who knows, but some parts are really facts.
Yes, when autumn 2022 turned into winter, one began to realize where it was heading.
I agree with you about the banks, but isn’t the USA more like an insurance company? You think you can trust them until the day your house burns down and you need help, and they find some clause in the terms that they can use to escape. They know that no one has the energy to read and understand what’s written there. 😉
Now, let’s hope that not all bank employees and insurance company staff leave the blog in anger! 😱
Now the phone rang, it was the bank wanting to discuss interest rates and my internet habits 😬
😂😂😂😂
😂😂😂
To reconnect with Mats’ test balloon about both presidents being/were afraid. They have the same intelligence information, have the same intelligence service making the same risk assessments including the risk of nuclear weapons. So even if they do things differently publicly, and a bit differently “flashily,” it wouldn’t be very strange if Trump and Biden have the same concern about escalation. Besides, Trump thinks Putin is a cool guy otherwise.
When you pick a fight with all your allies, you’re not cowardly, you’re probably a blockhead.
It’s important to look at the whole playing field and not just the war in Ukraine.
You certainly have a point! 😀
Then we have two eel heads, Scholz and Trump!
Now that the thread has become a bit of geniuses speculating, I will contribute. Perhaps it’s time to look north, more specifically towards the Arctic Ocean, which with melting ice will have a significant impact on transportation between Asia and Europe as well as western USA. Currently, there is the Northeast Passage via Russia and the Northwest Passage passing through the USA, Canada, and Greenland. Trump is eyeing both Canada and Greenland; if he could incorporate them into the USA, he would gain full control over the Northwest Passage. Furthermore, if he could also gain control over Russia, they would have full control over the entire Arctic Ocean.
Ah, do you think that could be one of the reasons he is approaching Russia? In addition to controlling the passage, he would also secondarily control the natural resources. Yes, there might be something to that. He reminds me a bit of Putin as he doesn’t seem to respect or care about what other countries think, so it could be completely in line with his character.
He has been arguing with Canada about the passage so it’s not a completely unrealistic conspiracy theory.
Johan Ingerö at GPLedare today has a different take: EVERYTHING is about China.
More specifically, that the USA, above all else, does NOT want to see a weakened Russia, which would then position itself as China’s weak partner.
Can you believe it?
THAT would, in any case in my humble opinion, explain why there seems to be a consistent line in American foreign policy from Biden to Trump: everything is about RU not losing.
Biden chose total hypocrisy, Trump the total bully attitude and boorishness, but do they have exactly the same goal? However, things are urgent for Trump, as RU is on the verge of losing, which explains why Biden didn’t manage huge aid shipments/skipped red lines when he was on his way out.
Don’t know. Guess it’s possible.
https://www.gp.se/ledare/gastkolumn/trumps-rysslandspolitik-handlar-om-kina.3efc3d4d-61f7-4f16-a5c2-ca43470ec476
Yes, Ingerö makes a very valid point.
I may have left about five comments under a different name on cornu, the last one was about how the US didn’t want Russia and China to become too strong of an axis (lots of raw materials and energy + an enormous production capacity). That this didn’t align with Europe’s interests and that it could lead to a cold war. I suspect that maybe I went a bit too far with the last part, and the comment was removed.
But right now, I get the feeling that I am the calmer one and others are screaming about a cold war…
I think just about everyone involved is trying to deceive each other at the moment. China, Russia, the USA, etc. Everyone wants to be on top. And the EU has been a bit slow to understand all the developments so far. …but maybe we are starting to catch up, or at least falling a bit less behind.
It wasn’t until the 1950s that Sweden had finished arming itself for the Second World War, seems like something similar this time…
But I agree that they are trying to deceive each other, I usually see BRICS as a club for countries that want to stab each other in the back, and the USA is not friends with any of them.
“Club for countries that want to stab each other in the back.” Best description!
Of course, there is a logic to it, then it could of course be a combination of all other speculations about the cause that together have led him to support Putin and Russia.
1. The possibility of lucrative business deals with Russia in the form of cheap raw materials, but perhaps in the long run also new establishments of American companies in Russia.
2. He also sees the opportunity to pressure Ukraine to do business with them.
3. Putin has helped him to power and he wants to repay / or there is compromising material.
4. He is still upset with Zelensky from when he crossed him last time Trump was president.
5. He wants to save on military expenses and leave Europe (perhaps that’s why he is in a hurry with the peace agreement, if Europe has time to arm itself, there is a risk that Ukraine will actually succeed in throwing out the Russians.
Exactly, most of the time we want to find a reason why someone makes a decision, but when we ourselves have to make a decision, we weigh the pros and cons in different scales to see what is most favorable.
When you see what is happening, the first option is that T does what the Kremlin wants.
Why
1. Repaying for the presidency = Russian access in some way.
2. Elon wants to go to Mars because of fear of nuclear war.
3. There are no other alternatives.
Conclusion a multipolar world is clearly heading towards danger, Europe including Ukraine and other friends must unite quickly. Use the failing car industry for weapon production. Conscription. Coordinated military. Drone production. Nuclear weapons. Review supply chains and much more. Start yesterday. Continued support for Ukraine, of course.
The first point I am starting to believe more and more in.
The theory is not stupid. Given the assumptions that: 1) Russia will respond more and more harshly to Ukrainian resistance, 2) there is no limit to escalation, whether it concerns expanding aggressions to new countries or using weapons of mass destruction, and 3) the responsibility for managing a large-scale nuclear war falls on the USA, the actions of the American presidents may seem somewhat more understandable.
Whether the assumptions are reasonable or not is another question.
👍
Trump threatens Hamas and the people in Gaza that they will all die if they do not release the hostage.
Imagine if he had dared to do the same to Russia…
https://www.hbl.fi/artikel/efter-braket-i-ovala-rummet-europa-har-en-hallhake-pa-usa/
👍 That is definitely interesting!