Putin not satisfied with just Donbas: all reserves deployed for Zaporizhia offensive

Today the biggest news comes from the Huliai Poli direction. Russian forces are currently reinforcing the Huliai Poli axis in order to try to break the Ukrainian defense in this sector. Russia's advantage in manpower is 4 to 1 across the wider axis and up to 7 to 1 in the most threatened sectors. This troop concentration indicates that Russia regards the Huliai Poli direction as one of its most important fronts. Here Russia is using its usual infiltration tactics of sending one to three soldiers at a time who try to get behind Ukrainian lines and accumulate there, while the use of armored vehicles is minimal.

To support its infiltration efforts Russia deployed three elite Rubicon drone units which are being rotated through the area to try to cover a wider section of the front line. Long term Russia wants to capture the left bank part of Zaporozhye Oblast including Zaporozhye City, the regional capital. Russia currently controls approximately 75 percent of Zaporozhye Oblast while this figure was around 73 percent after the Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023.

Based on this statistic and the rate of advance this year, which dropped to almost zero in this sector, it is highly unlikely that Russia can achieve its goal. Notably Russia advanced more than 20 kilometers in 2025 and by the end of the year captured Huliai Polia. However, their rate of advance dropped to 10 kilometers in 2026. Given this it would take seven years for Russia to reach Zaporozhye City.

In the short term the Russian high command has tasked its forces to advance 30 kilometers from Huliai Poli by the end of October. This move would allow them to encircle Orychiv from the north and cut it off from supplies. Given that Orychiv is the main supply hub for the Ukrainians here, holding their defense south of the town would be significantly more difficult in case Russia manages to take Orychiv under its control.

However, this goal is also highly unlikely to be achieved in the near future as Russia struggles to make meaningful territorial gains west of Huliai Poli. Notably the main Ukrainian defense line runs there, which took the Russians approximately eight months to gain a relatively small foothold over it. It consists of extensive anti-tank ditches, dragon's teeth obstacles and a series of lines of barbed wire.

This is why Russia cannot conduct mechanized assaults here and is forced to rely on infiltrations. Despite getting through the first defense line, Russia still cannot use vehicles to supply its advancing forces or conduct assaults because it couldn't dismantle the defense line enough to make it easier to pass. After getting through the defense line, which is still constantly monitored by Ukrainian drones, Russian infiltration groups have to go through vast open fields, which are mined.

As a result of these conditions, Russia can barely advance here, while its losses are mounting, which has forced it to redeploy troops to try to break the deadlock. Overall, Russia's decision to redeploy troops and rotate elite Rubicon drone units to the Huliai Poli direction shows that its current tactics are failing to deliver the breakthrough the high command needs.

The extensive Ukrainian fortifications, mined open fields and constant drone surveillance mean that even if Russia redeploys troops here, they will face the same challenges that their comrades fail to overcome. This creates a costly cycle in which Russia must commit more manpower to achieve limited gains, potentially weakening other sectors, as troops are diverted to sustain the offensive here. Unless Russian forces find a way to overcome these logistical and defensive obstacles, their ambitions to encircle Orykhiv and eventually reach Zaporizhzhya city will remain far beyond their current capabilities.

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