Russian losses 2025-03-05 & Trump’s speech

I myself have not had time to listen to the entire speech by Trump, but based on what I have seen and what others have written, he did not present anything new or “big.” Much of it was apparently the same old from when he campaigned, and he spent a lot of time praising himself, etc.

Regarding Ukraine, he presented a letter from Zelensky which apparently was about Ukraine being ready to negotiate peace and ready to sign the mineral agreement. He lied as usual about how much the US has provided in support, etc., and posed the rhetorical question to Congress, if they wanted to see the war continue for another five years.

The option “Just gibberish and hot air” was the one that received the most votes from the blog’s readers, and it turned out to be completely correct!
Thanks to the 156 of you who participated!

Here are the results:


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84 thoughts on “Russian losses 2025-03-05 & Trump’s speech”

  1. As you can see above, there were slightly lower losses than usual, at least when it comes to hardware. The Ukrainian General Staff’s report shows the same thing, as virtually all numbers are slightly lower than normal. Less than 100 KAB, less than 5,000 grenades, etc.

    “In total, 108 combat clashes were recorded during the past day. Yesterday, the opponent launched two missile strikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements with the use of two missiles, as well as 56 air strikes, in particular, dropped 90 KAB. In addition, he carried out about 4,800 shells, of which 185 were from reactive fire systems, and deployed 2,234 kamikaze drones.”

    1. Westley Richard

      I surfed around a bit yesterday and looked at what’s happening in the front line. It feels like UA is pushing forward with drones and seems to have such a big advantage, for example in Toretsk, that the Russians can’t use vehicles as they are taken out almost immediately. Drones dominate and then some SOF go in and clear out, when they have cleared a few blocks, the regular forces come in and secure against Russian counterattacks. It’s not fast, but it seems to be an effective way to counterattack without major losses.

      1. Yes, they seem to have a bit of momentum now and the drones are probably crucial, at the same time KAB (and artillery a bit lower), they shouldn’t be affected as much by the drones so there is probably something more behind it as well.

        Maybe everyone got distracted at the fronts because they were listening to Trump last night?😀

        It will be interesting to see how it looks in the coming days, if it persists or if it’s just temporary.

      1. -The letter from Zelensky
        -Europe is starting to show more concretely that they intend to upgrade (€800 billion)

        He still insists on doing something drastic when he begins to get his way, even Trump might think it’s foolish. If what Gregg wrote is true, that they checked with the Pentagon before freezing support, if Ukraine can survive 6 months without support, it shows that they are not completely neutral.

        Still believe that Trump’s main line is to get Europe to arm themselves and get Putin to the negotiating table.

        1. Still doesn’t feel like something BIG as he himself promised before the speech.
          The mineral agreement was about to be signed already last week and the first proposal for it came from Zelensky, and the fact that Europe is now investing heavily in defense is because Trump is failing. Hardly something for him to brag about.

          Yes, it’s possible that it’s solely what he’s after, but I find it very illogical.
          If he wants Europe to arm itself, it will take time, at the same time he’s trying to rush a peace agreement.
          Should he manage to reach a peace agreement with the “honorable” Putin who will keep all his promises (according to Trump), there will no longer be a need to arm.

          Either he would demand that Europe arms itself and stands on its own, including supporting Ukraine to victory (or at least to a strong enough position to start negotiating peace), but then he would drop the talk of peace negotiations, or if he’s in such a hurry with peace negotiations, he should start by increasing support to Ukraine and ensure that the pressure on Putin becomes so great that Russia has to back down.

          What he’s doing now, trying to force Ukraine to the negotiating table while stopping support and putting all the pressure on Ukraine and no pressure on Putin (where they only offer carrots instead), shows that he completely disregards Ukraine and its future.
          Putin also has no reason to give up anything when the USA ensures to weaken Ukraine’s position.

          Either it will be an unfair peace where Putin gets what he wants, or the war will continue much longer than necessary because it will take time before Europe can help Ukraine win (or at least be strong enough).

          Even if Trump follows a logic of “USA-first” where they want to cut expenses (avoid supporting Ukraine) and secure lucrative deals and other economic benefits regardless of the country involved, he doesn’t seem to be very successful at it, as it backfires on the USA, and it also shows how selfish he is when he only cares about himself, which also damages the USA’s trust for a long time to come.

          1. Agreed. Lands about there as well. And then his behavior can either be explained by sheer stupidity (which I don’t believe in) or something worse, that he wants to build something similar to the silo rule in the USA. Birds of a feather flock together, simply put, and then Ukraine is presumably a nut to crack even for Trump.

            1. I am convinced that he is a narcissist who both has a strong belief in himself and lacks empathy, which means he lacks understanding of how others react, that they may have completely different motivations than he does (where everything is just business where money and power are crucial).

              This makes him foolish because it leads to him drawing completely wrong conclusions.
              He was probably completely convinced that he would get both Zelensky and Europe to bow down and let him have his way.
              He deludes himself into thinking that just because he wants Greenland, everyone will agree to it, etc.

              He is probably envious of, for example, Putin who has unlimited power and wealth and thinks that he also deserves the same, so I believe you are completely right about what he will try to do in the USA.

          2. I don’t think Trump will succeed with his plan, but he probably doesn’t care about what I think.

            The only plan I’ve seen leaked is the one from Bloomberg that Kyiv Post summarized, and roughly the same I’ve heard from conservatives who claimed to have sources close to Trump, that the Russians should back to where they were before the full-scale invasion attempt. The reasoning behind this demarcation is that no one bothered to arm Ukraine so they could reclaim the occupied part before 2022. While Russia retreats, there should be a ceasefire and Ukraine should be armed to the teeth so that the Russians dare not start a new war.

            However, the Russians do not want to retreat a millimeter. What Trump will then threaten with is sanctions, increased support for Ukraine, pointing out that Russia’s economy will soon crash, etc., but it’s not something he needs to announce now. What he wants is to make the Russians appear as winners and Ukraine as losers to give something to Russian propaganda so they can retreat with their heads held high and not with their tails between their legs.

            A strong military Europe is then a must, just as the opposition in Sweden must scream out the toughest line when Sweden negotiates because the government can then take advantage of it in the negotiation “we can’t agree to this because the public opinion at home will slaughter us” or in Trump’s case “if you don’t back more, Europe will kick you out of Ukraine.”

            As I said, I don’t think Trump will succeed, but so far I haven’t seen anything about him changing course.

            1. I believe that is a post hoc construction where one tries to rationalize his behavior.

              For example, the mineral deal does not fit into that plan. Of course, one can retroactively rationalize and say that the whole idea was to push Zelensky so that Russia would feel that the USA is on their side. What would have happened if he had agreed to the deal right away?

              Regardless, and on that we agree, the plan will not succeed in the first step. Putin and the Russians are unlikely to accept giving up everything except Crimea BEFORE they are at a disadvantage even on the battlefield.

              It remains to be seen if Trump will choose to play hardball. I doubt it, but of course, I would be pleased if that were the case.

              I don’t think it has been Trump’s plan all along, as I said, but it could end up that way if opposition in the USA grows strong enough, so I’m keeping my fingers crossed for that.

    1. When it comes to satellite, radar, and signal intelligence, Europe should be able to ensure that these capabilities are maintained (if Europe is serious).

  2. “If war is what the US wants, whether it is a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we are ready to fight to the end — Chinese Embassy in the US”

        1. I understand, but I usually exclude that embassy; it stopped being reasonable a long time ago. The Chinese, on the other hand, tend to be more diplomatic, in my impression.

  3. “Trump was not going to sign the rare earths agreement yesterday, as he is now insisting on a “bigger and better deal”, so its terms may change – CBS, citing sources”
    https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3ljmgm7lly22y

    “U.S. President Donald Trump currently has no plans to sign a resource agreement with Ukraine, The Telegraph reports.”
    https://united24media.com/latest-news/trump-not-moving-forward-with-rare-earth-minerals-deal-with-ukraine-for-now-6437

    1. This “agreement” on natural resources in Ukraine was probably just a napkin sketch. A political move without real substance. Now it’s suddenly no longer relevant. I think the good Trump with his entourage will withdraw after this flying start where he was supposed to save the world and bring peace to Ukraine. He overplayed his hand. It didn’t turn out well. Does he have the GOP with him?

    1. Westley Richard

      It is not normal Chinese behavior to send combat troops so far from the homeland. China has not been in a conventional war since 1979, and that was with Vietnam, which both borders China and has a fairly large proportion of Chinese residents.
      China is trying to take over the world through debt traps, surveillance, and intensive trade.
      Getting directly involved in a conflict in the UA would definitely impact their trade and investments in Europe.

      I am doubtful that the information is accurate.

      1. Tvek here as well, they have little to gain but everything (almost) to lose.

        However, there might still be some benefit in terms of observers or equivalent.

      2. I also find it hard to believe in that.
        Now there is a movie circulating with what is claimed to be Chinese soldiers who are already supposed to be on site, but I’ll take that with a grain of salt, it may not even be filmed in Ukraine.

        BUT if it were to happen, one really wonders how the reaction will be from the US and European side.
        If China were to then fully support Russia and we don’t have the US on our side, I’m afraid it could be game over.
        On the other hand, I strongly doubt that they would destroy so much for themselves with so little to gain, they probably don’t care if Ukraine is Russian or not. In that case, the likelihood, now that the US appears very unwilling to help militarily, is much greater that they will take the opportunity to try to take Taiwan.

      3. Yes, I wonder if it’s true. That would be a significant escalation. If China wants to train soldiers in modern warfare, there are Western countries like Poland and France that also want to practice and support Ukraine’s side…

  4. “Macron: In this moment of great uncertainty, when the world is facing its greatest challenges, I will address you this evening at 8 p.m.”

    1. I think it will be more interesting to listen to than Trump. I also note that Le Pen has started to talk about Ukraine as a victim, which probably gives Macron a little more room to act, I guess.

      1. Yes, hoping for convection instead of hot air.
        It was really good (and surprising) that Le Pen took the right side. Keeping my fingers crossed that it can influence other like-minded people in other countries.

        1. Le Pen’s supporters consist of craftsmen, small business owners, and public employees who have been caught in the societal development. They are not friends of Russia. It is wrong to believe that. But the propaganda from our liberal media has wanted to label them as populists and friends of Russia. I object to that. Yes, I have read Houellebecq’s novels about contemporary France.

  5. OT:
    I post the same loss reports every morning on both Twitter and Bluesky. They look exactly the same every day except for the numbers.
    I hadn’t thought about it before, but now I noticed that there are very few views compared to what I remembered it used to be, so I looked back through it. Until January 23, it was usually between 4k-5k and sometimes up to 6k-7k, but since then it’s been 1k-2k per post.
    I have 10.3k followers and have been around that number for ages, even though it slowly increases.

    So this happened from one day to another.
    If people had abandoned Twitter for Bluesky, it would have decreased gradually.
    I guess Musk decided to tweak the algorithms, I must have posted too much anti-Trump and anti-Musk. 😂

    1. Jo noticed the same, has 100 followers on Twitter and doesn’t get as much feedback.

      On topic – yes, fewer things are showing up in the feed so definitely more focused now

      1. I posted a link to this place on Twitter yesterday.
        Just saw that it got 127 views. Out of 10,300 followers.
        So I’m reaching about 1% of my followers with my posts, it’s darn laughable!

        Granted, it’s said that Twitter doesn’t like external links but it’s still totally crazy.

  6. What a joke to my speech and my fears were really put to shame.

    But the tariffs are at least in place even though there are rumors that they will be withdrawn.

    However, he has created political pressure in Ukraine through all of this.

  7. It’s going well now Musk bastard! 😂

    “Tesla’s sales plummet in Germany – down 76 percent”
    “The same downward trend has been noted in several other countries. In France, sales plummeted 26 percent year-on-year in February, and in China, the number of cars sold fell by 49 percent. In January, Tesla’s total sales in Europe plummeted by nearly 50 percent.”

    https://omni.se/teslas-forsaljning-rasar-i-tyskland/a/Xj2ArB

      1. Where should they charge. All federal buildings would have their charging stations turned off.

        Is it the intention that Musk the Slusk should be able to replace them with Tesla stations?

    1. Oh, how fun! Everything that is bad for that blue-blood is good for the rest of humanity. My own decision not to buy a Tesla unfortunately has limited impact on the desired development, as it has never been an option to buy such rubbish. However, I try to contribute financially by buying financial instruments that short Tesla stock. Through financial wizardry, which I don’t understand, the value of the instrument increases when the Tesla stock price goes down. Besides getting rich like a troll, one then contributes to pushing down the Tesla stock, and ultimately to bruising the self-image of the dimwits in the White House.

      1. Westley Richard

        The neighbor who is a proud Tesla owner used to look down on my Merc V8 and ask when I would buy a proper car, now the roles are reversed 😀.

        1. Ask him when he plans to get rid of his sewing machine?

          I just remembered seeing a bumper sticker on an old Merc many years ago, when the internet began to find its way into every home: Yahoo yourself, you little brat!

      2. Blank stocks create a short-term downward pressure when the leveraged stocks are sold, but the leveraged stocks must be bought back later, and then the same upward pressure is created. Large short positions can also be seen as a compressed spring, people are not shorting forever.

        1. So true, but the price of Tesla stock is just as inflated as Musk’s self-image, and that was already the case before the brand started feeling as stale as a Luftwaffe screen cap. By shorting, the price of Tesla stock will quickly drop to its real value. With the side effect of deflating Musk’s ego faster.

  8. Didn’t dare to write a post about Trump going out as he promised since it’s seven in the morning here now. Everything would change…

    There will be one tomorrow morning that reveals everything as it really is instead ✊

    Yesterday was full of meetings with the CEO and the owners but today looks better so I can probably slack off.

  9. “Rysslands budgetintĂ€kter frĂ„n olje- och gasaffĂ€rer minskade med 18% jĂ€mfört med föregĂ„ende Ă„r i februari och med 2,3% jĂ€mfört med januari, enligt Reuters som hĂ€nvisar till ryska finansdepartementets data.”

    1. Westley Richard

      OPEC is set to increase its production starting in April, trade wars, etc., are pulling down the oil price, down by 7% this year. 7% should correspond to triple in margin.

      It is likely to impact the Russian economy.

    1. He talked, among other things, about how the USA is short on “raw earth” (yes, he actually said that).

      So maybe this opens up for a new and larger deal with Ukraine, which at the same time can get rid of large amounts of its dreadful clay.

  10. We feel that Trump changes direction like a weather vane daily, but if one were to guess, there are quite a few reprimands behind closed doors and then he has to adjust.

    MIC must be completely furious right now and even within his own organization, they are not completely keen on his friendliness towards Russia.

    What we interpret as “the art of the deal” is therefore, I said too much, I got a beating, and I changed my mind because I don’t want to be abused anymore – kind of.

  11. If this is true, that’s great! Does anyone know more about this?

    https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1897313504299819283?s=46&t=O93ETjGpZbl5yRRH02xV1g

    “…..the ONLY main weapon systems that will be affected with the US halt will be the HIMARS and the patriot…

    the himars can be covered by increased long range drones (100km) and some of the longer range new ukr rockets.

    the patriots can be covered by NASAMS, hawks, IRIS-T, and the mirage 2000s and F16s.. no real issues for now”

      1. Hmm… I wonder if they then have difficulty hitting refineries? However, it seems strange since they have fixed coordinates. Possibly, they no longer know where the air defense is located. Command posts will probably also be harder to identify and combat. Sad! 😞

        1. Westley Richard

          One mainly uses homemade drones at the refinery, and those are the ones with coordinates.

          Worse with troop concentration on the other side of the Russian border where they use Himars.

      2. Ukraine has been renting space on Finnish satellites since 2022. I assume they can rent space on satellites from other countries as well and cover the areas they have received from the USA – the USA is not the only country with satellites in the sky.

        Then there are commercial satellites as well, of course.

        1. Listened to a report on this and apparently the USA has advanced surveillance (not surprising and only China is close to this capability) and that is why Ukraine may be one step ahead when Russia gathers troops and knows where they are planning the next attack. The USA also informs when bomber planes take off so that Ukraine can prepare air raid alerts and air defense. It will probably be more difficult to counter air attacks without this capability.

  12. Don’t miss an extremely good post tomorrow, there will be some kind of conclusion about the USA, I felt, even though this circus is difficult to end.

  13. Westley Richard

    SmÄ drönare, sÀrskilt FPV-drönare, dominerar slagfÀltet i Ukraina och förstör ungefÀr dubbelt sÄ mycket fiendeequipment som alla andra vapen tillsammans. Deras frÀmsta problem Àr störningar, vilket enligt anekdoter fÄr Ätminstone hÀlften av FPV-drönarna att falla innan de nÄr mÄlet.

    Störningar kan motverkas med en “lĂ„s pĂ„ mĂ„let”-funktion: operatören vĂ€ljer mĂ„let, drönaren flyger resten av vĂ€gen sĂ„ att ingen kontrollsignal krĂ€vs genom störningszonen. FPV-drönare med denna funktion har testats pĂ„ slagfĂ€ltet sedan förra Ă„ret.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2025/03/05/ukrainian-fpv-operator-reviews-ai-enabled-lock-on-target-drones/

    1. There the calculation examples of how many goals Ukraine can eliminate with the number of drones they have cracked, which I believe Johan has also mentioned. -50%.

    1. Very effective with HIMARS here. Unfortunately, Ukraine is not receiving replenishment as all deliveries and orders are halted. Let’s hope that Ukraine has stocked up!

  14. And then this 😡

    “The US has effectively disabled HIMARS by stopping intelligence sharing with Ukraine, @TheEconomist reports.
    The fact is that HIMARS targeting depends on American intelligence data and American GPS satellites.
    Do you know when this “peace” decision was made? When Ukrainian forces reached counteroffensive success on several important areas in Donetsk region, @Deepstate_UA informs.”

  15. Putin seems to have a direct line to the White House. As soon as things start to improve for Ukraine, the USA does everything they can to prevent a breakthrough! Completely insane!

  16. Westley Richard

    Barros told me that to measure recent Russian advances, one must “break out the calipers,” because the war has slowed to the point that both sides are taking and losing just a few square miles of empty land at a time. “[Russia is] not slogging through an urban environment,” he said. “These are largely unpopulated steppes, with a handful of villages and only two operationally significant towns last year. That’s all they have to show for it.” The material cost of this territory of dubious value has been shocking. In one of the main areas of operation in Donetsk, Barros said, Russia “lost about 500 tanks and 1,000 armored personnel carriers—roughly a division for every 10 klicks of movement.” He told me that Russia has recently been observed using pack mules in lieu of mechanized equipment.

  17. Rumored that the USA has disabled the target output for Himars for UA.

    If it’s true, weapons from the USA will probably be scarce in the future.

    The threat is Russia for everyone. And then no one is safe, right?

    They can also cut off the Storm Shadow because they control the map service.

    This should actually keep us sleepless.

  18. Macron addresses the nation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvssAXQz4Cw

    Yes, he supports Ukraine and points out Russia as a long-term threat to Europe. Ukraine should not capitulate, and he will ask the government to propose a budget that increases military spending and does not want to solve it with higher taxes.

    I wonder if there will be loans, reprioritizations, or both. It sucks that expenses for defense and security are needed, but it’s necessary crap.

    One wants to run out and buy wine and baguette right away! Does anyone have a beret?

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