Ukraine and the world daily update May 10, 2025

Putin’s 9 May parade is over – it was an event with almost mournful moments and highlights like when Putin tried to get Xi Jinping to drink tea, and Xi looked more than worried 🤣🤣

https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/VQgsibQn8Y4?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0

Then there was a pre-party, and I don’t think anyone felt it was lively when looking at the pictures – they just want to go to the hotel room and watch Netflix it seems.

We know Ukraine could have droned the parade – they closed all airports in western Russia days before and had a couple of days with drone clouds (+500 drones and some robots/per occasion) over Crimea and into the oblasts at the northern border.

Putin strutted around the parade in his platform shoes, and all the despots were out in the open even though the slightest sound made everyone glance up at the sky and look around for the nearest dictator colleague to crawl under.

Those lacking imagination always say “it would have been too risky, it would have had too great consequences,” and so on.

And forget that every time Western leaders, or Guterrez from the UN for that matter, visit Kiev, Putin places a robot a few hundred meters away.

Putin has also shelled the GUR headquarters, hotels with Western journalists, restaurants with Western journalists, and all sorts of targets with Western officers when he gets the right information – and he has tried to assassinate Zelensky 10 times.

Or 7 October…

Sometimes being the adult in the room is a bit too dull, but now we must look ahead and see what didn’t happen at the parade 🧐 –

The USA did not send anyone to the parade as Trump said a few weeks ago, and Trump did not come out to call for peace and calm during the parade – he remained silent.

And then Fico had to travel halfway around the world to get to Moscow 🤣🤣

The parade was intended to project strength – a strong Russia. 29 heads of state participated, including China, and 13 countries participated with troops in the parade. If we count defense ministers, it was 31 countries participating.

Last year, there were 9 heads of state participating…

Ukraine droned Moscow for three days, and then calm settled over the parade – I find it boring.

2023 was at least the low point – then it looked like this, and those who attended were the ones who would otherwise have been ousted by Putin 🤣🤣

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Moscow_Victory_Day_Parade

One must grimly acknowledge that the dark side has organized itself despite a rather shaky start, but if the opposing team (us) does everything to facilitate, it would be strange if it didn’t happen at some point.

Then it’s starting to look like a “USA in Vietnam” situation.

Putin and Russia are under attack from the West and are only defending themselves – this narrative is gaining ground among more and more rogue states.

The post-analysis of the 9th May parade will show that the West is a bit dazed by how much Russia has managed to revive itself despite the war in Ukraine and that they may now be a more imminent threat than previously thought.

But if you have read these posts, you already knew that.

I saw the T90M, Armata was not there.

Anyway, Ukraine accuses Russia of not respecting the ceasefire during the parade – I think they could have droned the heck out of it instead of trusting Putin.

But at least now we know what was behind it – a declared ceasefire on 8-10 May.

Putin once again got away with being a slippery snake, after three years of just that.

One can guess that Europe and the USA chose the easy way out of this and insisted that Ukraine should respect the ceasefire…

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly3807exyno

Before we move on to the next conflict, I must mention that Hungary has now been hit with two biggies – their defense forces were mobilized in 2023 to enter Transcarpathia, and now in recent days, Ukraine has arrested a spy ring from Hungary’s security service operating in Transcarpathia. This should have consequences for Hungary, but the EU seems to be rolling over and falling back asleep.

How is the thaw with the USA going? It seems to be going well because JEF had a big meeting, and Trump and Zelensky were there on the link 😀

My earlier analysis was delivered when Trump and the USA sided with Russia in the conflict and tried to force Ukraine to cease fire. The pressure the USA could exert on Ukraine is significant, and they would have become passive, the 11th AC would have taken over the defense of the northern border against UA, and then the Ukrainian balloon would have started deflating, accepting land loss and embarking on the journey towards a peace economy.

Then Russia would have moved on the Baltics, and the EU would be unprepared with a feeling of betrayal from Ukraine, unwilling to help.

First – why would Russia move on the Baltics?

The doubters say it’s too risky, but then they forget –

-cut off 11 power cables in the Baltic Sea.

-election interference throughout the EU and USA.

-open sabotage throughout the EU on a steep rise.

-sanctions against Russia continuously increasing.

-a 9 May parade projecting strength unlike previous years.

-7 October 2023

-Zapad 2025.

-allied with Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, Turkey so they can block a lot in the EU and NATO, as well as MANY parties and members in Western parliaments and oppositions who are in Russian favor – they will be able to block a lot of decisions.

-and most importantly, Russia is in a war economy and has a deadline where they will collapse, economists say it could happen this year if we are to believe them – did they watch the parade by the way?

-EU defense forces are increasing, and from 2026 onwards, it should start to show, the Baltics also have their defense line against Russia, which should be seriously built from 2026 onwards. By 2030, it’s definitely game over for Putin all else being equal.

If Russia doesn’t intend to crawl back into its den and fall asleep, they really only have this year to escalate the war against Europe.

MENA is already ignited, India-Pakistan is underway, and China has recently flexed its muscles in the South China Sea by taking over another country’s territory.

We can assume that Russia intends to completely lock down Europe as part of the larger plan, which includes an attack on the Baltics.

That’s the sad part that many still don’t want to believe, just like with 24 February 2022 or now India – Pakistan. This is how it goes when war breaks out – the frog is slowly boiled, more and more get involved, and in the end, you look around in astonishment and realize it’s a world war.

What I absolutely can’t figure out is the following, so here comes an alternative theory –

-Ukraine wants to continue fighting, we know that, but right now, they are pushing for a ceasefire as much as they can.

-They have a large well-equipped offensive reserve.

-Europe refuses to fortify the Baltic border against Russia in 2025, everything should be done in 2026 even though everyone knows that Russia has a strategic reserve and that NK 11th AC is on the way – and that we have Zapad25, not Zapad26.

(Putin buttered up the NK generals immensely at the parade, the only officer he stood on tiptoe for and gave a bear hug 🧐).

For Ukraine, it would be good if Europe got involved, right?

And it would also be good if RU burned its offensive strategic reserves in the Baltics?

But to do that, the calm needs to settle in Ukraine so that Russia can start to relax.

Europe is divided, indecisive, and in other ways fails to address this. Maybe we need a couple of hard slaps?

Now that Trump has turned, we know that Ukraine is not under negative pressure, and we know that they want to bring down Russia. The only possibility to do that may be if RU suffers a blow in the Baltics, and the only way for that to happen is if RU is tempted to attack?

It has been brought up in the thread before, and Birger recently floated the idea on Substack.

I don’t have very high thoughts about Europe here, but after Trump’s sudden change, I feel that we can afford some positive thinking. This would be an optimal scenario to end the war for us.

Those of you who have followed the whole journey know roughly the following –

-I am world-leading in my analyses, and the CIA pays outrageous sums to MXT for the copyright, and then the Tax Agency takes 77%.

-Ukraine has been on the verge of deciding at least three times, what hurts the most for me is VDV near Kherson.

-Since last autumn, Ukraine has received a huge amount of heavy vehicles, and all old Eastern tanks are getting new weapon stations throughout the EU.

-Ukraine has received mine-clearing vehicles, night combat equipment, amphibious combat gear, and air landing equipment.

The equipment Ukraine has today is probably as much as the rest of the EU has deployed.

Throughout this war, Ukraine has a plan for an offensive, even into autumn 2024, which Biden/Trump torpedoed.

Europe has closed ranks, and we have just gotten rid of the steel, and Merz seems to be a really warlike German (leap of faith…).

Macron is mostly trying to take over as Macropoleon, but France is not slowing down in any way.

If you have read my posts, you also know that in 2022 I declared JEF the new black so that Ukraine would never join the toothless NATO.

JEF has taken on the role of defending the Baltic Sea and Finland – the Baltics, and Sweden is a major player here, along with the UK and the Netherlands.

Finland is now screaming at everyone, but they hardly need to be introduced further.

If Europe can help Belarus break free by allowing citizens to vote themselves to the West, which they want, and Ukraine joins, then we have the bulwark of the future against the barbarians ready.

Over time, we will fortify the border again and take care of surveillance in solidarity, with the whole EU pitching in, even the Portuguese, so that border protection doesn’t bankrupt their countries.

In all world wars, life is almost normal a few miles from the front lines, and so it will be in this upcoming world war – we have all lived through COVID and the Lehman crash, and it won’t affect life significantly more.

Just look at how little concern there was over India – Pakistan, no one cares. And yet Pakistan has promised to annihilate the whole world with nuclear weapons if they lose to India 😶

Ukraine now has a huge offensive capacity, and their drone weapons and EW dominate completely.

You saw how for several nights in a row there were +500 drones over oblasts, hitting the target every time.

The Russian artillery is basically wiped out, with 4000 shells per day instead of 50,000-60,000 at the start of the war (or when they started bombarding heavily when they realized everything had failed).

Ukraine’s EW system targets 50% of the objectives in strategic Russian operations.

RU suffers +80% of losses from Ukraine’s drones, and at the parade, RU’s drone weapons were a joke – they had nothing, as we saw 🧐

And all maneuver brigades can now fight Azov-style, as we saw at Bakhmut in 2023.

Ukraine is on the offensive in a numerical disadvantage of 1:3 – 1:5 and is winning, so they have the numbers to end this.

But they need a little help, and that’s what Europe is now preparing for in silence.

To believe that Europe will do everything right when Kristersson’s new candidate for the security advisor position resigned after twelve hours due to scantily clad photos may not be well-founded, but after all, we have had three years to prepare, and we know what awaits if Russia comes to us.

Merz seems to be friendly with violence, and we hope he doesn’t turn out to be eager for Lebensraum and ovens too, but he is probably the best we have in Germany right now.

Macron has a unique ability to get lost in all issues, and even though he deserves (sincere) applause for January 2024 and for taking on Trump, he never quite lands right – he always gets up and runs off in the wrong direction.

Kier is another weak card who may not make it through the entire term, but in Ukraine, he has been spot on.

If only Trump can come back to reality after his initial hubris, we could sort this out.

The USA will still want to confront China, and that journey has begun, but everything will play out in Asia. Europe will avoid being scorched this time, and we will be able to support the USA.

I cannot emphasize enough that we must sort out our eastern border – this opportunity will not come again.

If we don’t do that, there is a risk of a new Cold War, and those of us who were in the barbro groups know how tough it was.

If we manage to straighten out the eastern border by preventing Russia from stopping Belarus’ democratization and then making a deal with Kaliningrad while Russia is busy killing each other internally in a major power grab, we will have come a long way.

It will happen in 2025, and we will have Ukraine to thank for everything when this is over.

The Russian leadership will have just opened the caviar tin, and everyone will smell the scent of raw salted roe after their two divisions parked ten miles into eastern Estonia without any problem – when the first reports from Ukraine come about wildly fleeing divisions in front of Ukrainian armored wedges that no one in the command expected they had the capacity for.

Sun Tzu – appear weak when you are strong, just like Kristersson and his many security advisors 🧐

Choose me as a security advisor, long since married, and the wildest thing I do is have two beers in front of Netflix on Friday and fall asleep. My biggest skeleton in the closet is that I would refuse a PETh test on strict religious grounds.

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