What’s going on inside Trump’s head is a bit of a mystery to me, as he now seems to have made a significant shift regarding Ukraine and Russia.
Considering all the dismissals in the USA within the CIA, FBI, Pentagon, and all other authorities, and the fact that he controls the Supreme Court, I find it hard to believe that “someone” has twisted his arm?
Trump is pursuing the policies he intends to pursue.
So, we will try to figure out the reasons for the change in course below – as we have a fairly unanimous thread of truth that he is serving Russia’s interests, from embarrassing hotel tapes to being bought by Putin, with no names mentioned driving it daily in an endless loop.
And then we have DOGE who sent a lot of classified information to GRU…
(and of course, the question here is whether I fell for a psyops regarding DOGE, but I have considered that this was true?)
Then the USA is still holding back those 50 Abrams tanks that Australia wants to send – so in line with Biden’s non-escalation doctrine.
One of Trump’s trademarks is betraying friends and throwing them under the bus as soon as it benefits him, so I would start unraveling in what way Trump believes this benefits him/the USA – I have previously dismissed that Putin has compromising material on him or financial leverage.
Instead of shutting down Five-Eyes, the USA has now given other countries access to their most secret space information that they never had access to under Biden 😶
A month ago, the experts’ tip was that Five-Eyes would be shut down!
(first posted by MXT on johanno1.se, if you want to read everything first, the tip is to constantly hang out there)
Now the USA has also decided to withdraw from the peace mediation between Russia and Ukraine, and they have not blamed everything on Zelensky and punished him with withheld material deliveries as expected, on the contrary 🧐
Where are Trump’s rants on truth social about what a lousy horse-trader Zelensky is and that he should resign?
The other day, Ukraine was able to purchase just under 100 million USD in weapons under a contract from the USA, and rumors are that the USA has resumed material deliveries. That market was completely closed during Biden’s time.
There is also footage of Ukraine’s largest transport plane being loaded with a lot of old retired F-16s, presumably for spare parts.
Ukraine is not exactly known for not trying to garage-repair everything that rolls with duct tape and start shooting Russians with it, but maybe these are too worn-out aircraft?
The material agreement, which in its first version was a poorly disguised colonization of Ukraine, is now so watered down that the USA gets nothing at all, so presumably it is only meant to save face for Trump AND to strengthen the image outwardly between Ukraine and the USA.
Russia is not very happy about this on Twitter and is sulking with the moonshine jug…
I wonder if this change in course could have something to do with Xi Jinping choosing to show himself as a close ally of Russia?
Xi will be attending the parade on May 9th, and Chinese troops will participate in the parade, and he formally asked Ukraine not to drone the parade when he is there 🤣🤣
Xi Jinping has not attended the May 9th parade since 2015 (although he has made +10 trips to Russia in total since 2012) and Chinese troops have never participated before – this is a very clear statement from Xi.
In terms of showing who one considers to be their friends, it can hardly be more clear, and since the start of the war, Xi has stayed away from these parades like the plague.
It is the same Xi who during his latest trip to Europe only visited Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, and I believe Macron.
I am starting to become a bit suspicious because Trump started quite quickly with his attacks on China, the timeline in the link below, and it was quite something, we have only heard about half of it 😶.
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-relations-in-the-trump-2-0-implications
And then China confirmed that they would attend the May 9th parade.
Another version is always that Trump is doing this to get what he wants, so what did he achieve with the entire Ukraine peace mediation?
Nothing at all, I suppose?
-The EU is increasing but has not taken any decisive steps, and we have always wanted to increase but Biden held us back.
-The USA did not receive any money from Ukraine
-The USA continues to send material
-The USA looked bad in the peace mediation and lost in popularity.
-He also refused to sell $50 billion worth of weapons to Ukraine for cash.
No 5D chess move, or art of the deal.
Ukraine has always praised the USA and been very positive about Trump when he took office, so he didn’t need to manipulate them at all.
What I am starting to get curious about is both what prompted the change in course and especially if we look ahead 😁
If Trump were to decide to say “shoot Russia back to the Stone Age, I don’t care,” Ukraine would listen to that and ignore Europe’s continued anxiety – but of course, we are not there at all yet.
There are many degrees to Trump’s loosening of the reins, but we can probably sense that they are not as tight as Biden’s anymore, and then it went from tighter reins than Biden had, which we have been crying rivers over.
Another thought about puzzle pieces that fit together – a few weeks ago, Zelensky started to come out very strongly against China, Chinese soldiers in Ukraine, and accusations of China delivering weapons. Evidence was presented, and China was forced to comment on it in the media, losing face and everything.
I thought it was inappropriate because it risked escalating with China, and Ukraine has previously been very cautious and has attended several meetings in China and recently signed trade agreements with them.
This was, of course, at a time when Trump was best buddies with Putin and was bullying Zelensky indiscriminately.
It is quite clear that Trump is not at all friends with China, and that has been US policy for a long time – they intend to strike at China before they become too strong.
-Has Trump realized that Ukraine against China is good for the USA?
-Has Trump (and the USA) realized that he will not get Russia on board against China (some indication of that now on May 9th…)?
-Has Trump realized that he started driving Ukraine towards China instead through his attempts to become our time’s McDonald’s Gandhi (Ukraine has already been to China several times under Biden and even now under Trump, you may remember my discussion in the summer of 2024 about Zelensky turning to China instead when it was darkest)?
-Has Zelensky promised Trump to be his ally against China in light of Trump’s current change in course?
-Was this something they discussed in the Vatican when Trump told Macron to go to hell and removed his chair to have a one-on-one with Zelensky without French arm-waving and bad English with a hysterical accent?
-Has Zelensky managed to sell to Trump that he is a better ally than Russia?
If so, and if Trump wants violence against China – when will Xi Jinping be completely exposed and humiliated in front of a live camera without the US having to do anything at all 😍😍😍
And above all, then Ukraine will become an ally that will weaken the Russia-China axis, right?
Now I have made a whole battery of assumptions on extremely loose grounds and extrapolated way too far, but it would be incredibly fun if drone swarms appear on May 9th because Ukraine absolutely has the capability for it – indisputably.
Budanov, Zelensky, and others also constantly hint that they will drone the parade.
So far, Trump has not been directly helpful to Zelensky and has intended to mediate peace, which he has now backed out of a week before May 9th.
Putin has invited Xi Jinping, and it’s a bit like when we in Sweden invite the US president (when we liked him before) – something very big for the country.
For Putin, this is the parade where he wants to show strength, and he will showcase a lot of new equipment through Moscow – important for international image projection and even more important for the citizen-slaves.
Showing weakness behind some armored glass dome is probably not going to happen, and this is the event when everyone is there – the twelve-pointed elbows push forward in line.
Then, to see on live camera Putin surprisingly agilely trying to crawl under a crouching Xi who has started to cry cascades as drone clouds pour in over the parade would be an exemplary PR disaster that would likely lead to China telling Russia to go to hell, right?
It would also significantly destabilize Putin’s position in Russia.
That would be EXACTLY what GUR wants to achieve, and has wanted to do throughout the whole war, but the US and Europe have stopped them – Biden had his red lines with Sullivan, and Europe hesitated, and hesitates.
All else being equal, the only thing that would have changed in that case is Trump, and what it would be is that Trump feels he can get to China that way and that the Russia-China bond is too strong for him to feel comfortable with it?
The likelihood is probably that it won’t happen, but oh, how one hopes for a fireworks display on May 9th 😍
Imagine the Friday night buzz in the thread on johanno1.se – that will be covered in recurring reports by Aktuellt and Rapport for several years 😍😍
I also maintain that the only thing that would stop Operation Baltikum is if Ukraine kicks off some serious warfare here, so it would be appreciated if they did that starting with the parade and then continued with this offensive they have meticulously prepared for – the only thing that has held them back is Trump’s peace mediation, but if he now withdraws, we might see a Ukraine that no longer needs to fight with one hand tied behind its back.
They must have all those blast-proof vehicles they received, right, and the mine-clearing equipment and the ability for amphibious combat and airborne landings.
Let’s not forget that India chose the USA in both words and actions and clearly distanced itself from China by imposing trade tariffs on them. India is their sixth largest export destination, the USA was the first before Trump’s antics 🤣
I guessed that Pakistan got them in exchange from the USA because it came directly.
Vietnam was also quick to choose the USA and they are (were) China’s third largest after the USA and the EU, so now they are number two.
Now the peace talks with Iran have completely collapsed, and if you have read these posts, you know that we have long guessed that the USA has already decided to strike Iran, and we are rarely wrong, possibly a few times in three years.
The USA has prepared for a major blow against Iran, and China imports 13% of its oil from Iran, and oil exports from the Gulf states will drop to zero for a while, and Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Oman are among China’s largest oil suppliers – the big oil gulp in China.
If the USA were to pivot away from Russia and choose Ukraine, relations with the EU would probably thaw lightning fast as well – it’s probably only Macron who would be so typically Frenchly annoyed at having to give back the crown.
Five Eyes has presumably gone on an absolutely enormous charm offensive here – hard to interpret it any other way?
And Trump has cracked open the door to the arms industry for Ukraine, the same door that Biden locked with double padlocks and gave Sullivan a paintball gun to guard it with.
Other major export destinations for China are South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan – all of which should be US-controlled even if Trump has managed to make the whole world more than a little upset so far.
Then we have ASEAN, all of which are smaller countries, and the only one mentioned above is Vietnam, but that bloc is thus China’s largest trading partner.
I don’t think everything looks rosy for China at all, and just like everyone else, they cannot predict how this will play out other than preparing for the worst, making their best moves, evaluating, and continuing.
Has China perhaps chosen Russia as its strategic partner?
Certainly, they have made some moves, evaluated, and then chosen to show the world that Russia is their strategic partner. A bit like when two celebrities choose to publicly show themselves together for the first time.
If so, there are strong reasons for Europe to choose the Ukraine/USA side in this conflict and quickly dump China – in fact, with the signals May 9th is about to give, the EU should do it immediately.
Has Trump, by aggressively approaching Russia, panicked China into making a reckless move and start getting closer to Russia even more clearly to beat them to it without thinking through the consequences?
Has Trump been playing 5D chess with China?
(I know at least a couple in the thread on johanno1.se who will have a whole array of arguments to say that this is not the case, but they may have to go as far as admitting that it was the unplanned consequence of Trump’s antics if so 😀)
Anyway – if there is continuity in Trump’s change of course, it is very good and very exciting – we simply have to wait and see because if we have learned anything from Trump, it is that everything changes lightning fast and 90% is noise, but Five Eyes is significant, and there is a tangible thaw with Zelensky.
Regarding Trump’s Ukraine strategy, I have already locked in my analysis, and a change of course from Trump would be sensational for me.
Regarding his other antics, I have guessed that the USA will take the first hit to trigger larger declines in other countries and then shift the risk onto them, and they will suffer the whole downturn. And that China is the endgame to collapse – we are not there yet, but we’ll see 🧐.
I also believe that he would like to see a Europe that struggles with Russia and internally so that we don’t become too strong, but it could also be possible that the US has realized that in order to beat China, Europe is needed, and the first round didn’t go well at all?
I think we are within the window of the Russian sabotage wave, so today’s exercise will be to post potential sabotage in the thread on johanno1.se.
-Yesterday, T23 wrote that about ten mobile towers were vandalized during the Easter weekend in Sweden.
-And then we recently had the suspected shots near our airbase.
https://www.sverigesradio.se/artikel/skottljud-utanfor-forsvarsmaktens-viktiga-flygbas-allvarligt
-Then the blackout at Heathrow was recently caused by a burning substation, and in London on Monday, there was also a substation that caught fire.
-Starting to calm down with the undersea cables now, but a total of 11 have been cut.
“In total, the Baltic Sea has registered at least six suspected sabotage incidents since 2022, with 11 known undersea cables taken out since 2023”.
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-sabotage-undersea-cables-baltic-sea-europe-war
-The Dutch are getting tired of all the Russian cyber attacks.
https://therecord.media/dutch-mivd-report-russian-cyber-sabotage
-Two Russian hacker groups claim they were behind the blackout. Now, you all notice that they didn’t provide any evidence, which is customary to take credit for something like this – highly exaggerated, therefore.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2048169/pro-russian-hacking-group-power-outage-spain-portugal
-France is getting annoyed with APT28, which is a GRU hacker group that Anonymous France just exposed the names of everyone in 🤣🤣
-Many British retail chains are trying to defend themselves against cyber attacks now.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62x4zxe418o
So, it’s lively as usual, and this is probably something that is being cooperated on in the EU, I guess, and it’s not just a one-way communication.
Anonymous France just exposed the GRU hacker group just when France officially complained loudly, so there is some connection between them.
It’s good if hacker collectives are on the right side.
And then General SVR has started talking about COVID just when Tulsi Gabbard does, and COVID is a rare topic nowadays 🧐
Now, you finally have the opportunity to show appreciation to MXT and his work on the website and the daily (well…) yellow posts – IT has installed a donation button on johanno1.se, if you look around a bit, you’ll see a QR code.
There is also a donation page for Ukraine on johanno1.se with links to Swedish Rescuers, drones 2 Ukraine, and other organizations that we have learned over time are legitimate and worth donating to.
On Substack – there is still a chance to follow and subscribe if it feels more right to go that way, which some have done.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
Glömt inte att donera, Ukrainas sak är vår! Stöd Ukraina!
Loading ...Här hittar du resultatet från våra tidigare läsarundersökningar: Enkätarkiv
OBS! De av er som INTE vill tillåta automatisk översättning av era kommentarer, gå in på er profilsidan och ange det.
För musen över ert namn längst upp till höger, välj redigera profil, så hittar ni sedan inställningen under rubriken språkinställningar.
