Several explosions were reported last night from the airport in the Russian Krasnodar krai in the occupied Crimea in what is suspected to be part of a larger attack from Ukraine on military targets in the region. There is still no information on what may have been hit and what damage has been caused. The videos from the attack that have surfaced on social media show that Russian air defense has been activated and there are also explosions in the air. Article at Kyiv Independent.
Russian losses in Ukraine
KWIA still under a thousand, but otherwise relatively high material losses, especially for artillery and soft vehicles (=unarmored vehicles, mainly for logistics). UAVs still over two thousand but no longer increasing.
- 860 KWIA
- 7 Tanks
- 5 AFVs
- 50 Artillery systems
- 4 MLRS 2
- Air defense systems
- 2071 UAVs
- 189 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
Here is an overview of Russian losses over time
Russian activities
Still many KABs and suicide drones, and the artillery has exceeded four thousand.
- 154 Clashes
- 78 Airstrikes
- 292 KABs
- 9,112 Suicide drones
- 4,231 Artillery attacks, 201 from MLRS
Although the number of clashes has decreased slightly, most other aspects have increased somewhat.
There has been much written about Russia sending forward many small groups that are sacrificed to clear Ukrainian positions. This has likely led to a high number of clashes and a high number of KWIA.
Lately, we have heard that Russia has had difficulty recruiting. They may have realized that they cannot waste manpower and may be attempting more mechanized and coordinated attacks again.
At the same time, Ukraine has launched local counterattacks. This possibly leads to fewer KWIA as the Russians defend themselves, but it may also force them to use more artillery, etc., to defend themselves.
SLAVA UKRAINI
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
“Very telling footage from Magyar Birds @414magyarbirds – Russian Forces always make good use of foggy conditions and send expendable infantry to just get closer to the frontlines. Unlucky for them, Ukrainian Forces still find and delete them, no matter the weather. :)”
Kallas has read Johan’s post, the USA are not our friends!
“EU’s foreign minister Kaja Kallas says that the union’s relationship with the USA is very complicated, but if one reads the USA’s security strategy, one should only be able to draw one conclusion: the USA does not like the EU. She says this to the Financial Times.
– What I think is important for everyone to understand is that the USA has been very clear that they want to divide Europe, she says.
In the USA’s security strategy, the EU is described in less flattering terms and it explicitly states that the White House should support movements in Europe that share the USA’s interests. Trump has also clearly aligned himself with Hungary’s EU-critical leader Viktor Orbán and has also imposed trade tariffs on the EU and threatened to take Greenland from Denmark.
Kallas believes that the response to USA’s aggressions should be through the EU.
– They don’t like that we stick together, because we are equal powers when we stand united, she says.”
Kallas is a real hawk, which is exactly what the EU needs.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 1
S Slobozhansky 1
Kupyansk 3
Lyman 7
Slovyansk 8
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 28💥💥↗️
Pokrovsk 27💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 8
Huliaipole 28💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 2
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 0
Sum sectors 🇷🇺 113↗️
Unlocalized (🇺🇦) 41
Total 154↗️
Kostjantynivka
Huliaipole
👍
Trams
This is nothing strange, it’s because Budanov has sent The Old Man on several secret missions lately, he simply hasn’t been in Sweden, that’s why it’s like this.
“Less alcohol was consumed in Sweden last year compared to 2024. This is shown by new statistics from the Swedish Council for Information on Alcohol and Other Drugs (CAN) reported by TT.
The total alcohol consumption decreased by 2.6 percent and the total consumption of pure alcohol per inhabitant over 15 years old was 8.2 liters.
The council also compared how much alcohol is consumed from Systembolaget, restaurants, farm sales, and grocery stores with how much alcohol is brought into the country, smuggled, homebrewed, and purchased through the internet. The so-called registered part accounted for 88 percent of total consumption.”
https://omni.se/svenskarnas-drickande-minskade-till-8-2-liter/a/XMjWVm
Despite my secret (?) foreign assignments with Budanov & co, I still do my part in maintaining alcohol consumption (= tax that can be used to support Ukraine).
👍
Good morning from a Sunny Abu Dhabi.
With my laptop on my lap, lying in my plastic bathtub with my 30 SEK Ikea blanket pulled up for extra protection, it’s hard to be completely relaxed. Hope was lifted a bit in the last 24 hours, it was calm for 25 hours straight and I could sleep without new alarms going off, but of course, Iran needs to assert its greatness and send a bunch of missiles around 8:15 a.m. today. It was close by and it banged quite loudly, but as usual, it’s over in about 5 minutes and then life goes back to normal.
I think it would be much better if all these semi-senile, aggressive old men met in a room to settle things in a proper brawl like in the old days, a glorious “last man standing” rumble so the rest of us can live our lives without bombs falling over our heads at regular intervals, just a suggestion with all good intentions.
The weekends are not so fun here anymore, it’s hard to move far from home I think, need to have some risk management at least, and it becomes quite an isolated life when it’s not workdays, and even this is something that makes it impossible to stay here indefinitely, under these circumstances.
Trump has spoken again in his wisdom, I had to verify that it is actually him who wrote it and therefore went to his social platform for the first time in my life and sure enough, he had posted this, Saturday Night Live doesn’t even need to try to write jokes anymore, they can just take his texts as they are. But if there is actually substance behind what he writes, it is clearly worrying for the region here, Iran will of course continue to stir around in the whole region here as long as they have the capability to do so.
Some updates on what’s happening in the region, Oman has continued to receive more drones sent to them and US citizens are asked to leave the country:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/day-14-israel-us-iran-war-live-updates#blogCarddf200d13-c8ef-4073-bce4-fd92a6f75d97
Israel has been bombing heavily in Iran overnight, which may explain the temporary calm here in the UAE, it seems like Israel and the USA are targeting the launch sites but my understanding is that these are basically everywhere so the question is if they will ever be able to pick them all:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/day-14-israel-us-iran-war-live-updates#blogCardde493992-571d-4852-8368-efb215c445b6
It also seems like the alarm has gone off at a NATO base in Turkey:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/day-14-israel-us-iran-war-live-updates#blogCard0b4f5b75-1ba6-4535-a0f3-973babdaec5f
Saudi (and also Qatar) seem to have received drones and missiles both overnight and yesterday:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/day-14-israel-us-iran-war-live-updates#blogCarde6f1cdaa-8fff-421f-9ef4-3ecd50b4b059
Looking forward to Friday afternoon, we only work 3.5 hours on Fridays now during Ramadan, and will celebrate the weekend with a combination of light beer and cheap whisky (luxurious indeed), a light beer that I managed to get here from Bombay after much effort, I want to convey to the Old Man that it’s not so fun to paddle slalom between the mines in the Strait of Hormuz, but what wouldn’t one do for some extra alcohol in stock and also, a strong drink of cheap whisky and light beer sounds quite delicious.
All is well here from Abu Dhabi.
Thank you for the report! Afraid that this unfortunately may take significantly longer than what the USA (and many others) initially thought.
Lucky that you could avoid the mines and got hold of the weakling especially if there isn’t much else to do on the weekends. Just hope that the liver doesn’t get damaged (only The Old Man can handle a barrel a day for an extended period).
Yes, the comedians mocking Trump are having good days, they just need to repeat what he says and look puzzled!
Hang in there and hold out!
Thank you for the situation report from reality.
Certainly life feels easier now, with a barrel of light beer in your arms?
Do not envy your situation.
Torn between two thoughts.
1. Go all-in, deploy ground troops, crush the regime, destroy their robots, etc., and crush their arms industry and uranium stocks. Whatever the cost.
2. Cease the attacks, leave the region alone.
None of these thoughts will come to pass, but what will happen then?
A prolonged war until one of the parties collapses along with the world economy?
Krasnov will get tired and blame Israel.
https://youtu.be/XDMmWnjBeOU?is=P03nfyxe-Knt294Z
Iran 🇮🇷
Trump’s inner circle is divided on the terms and ways to end the war with Iran
https://x.com/zn_ua/status/2032362365635686481?s=46
— Reuters March 13, 2026, 08:39 © EPA-EFE/FRANCIS CHUNG
This explains why Trump and representatives of his administration have made conflicting statements about the operation.
The conflict between different factions within the White House is forcing U.S. President Donald Trump to change his public statements about the progress of the war against Iran, while his aides discuss when and how to declare victory, even as the conflict spreads across the entire Middle East, Reuters reports.
Some officials and advisers are warning Trump that rising gasoline prices could lead to political losses for the U.S. and Israel, while hawks are urging the American president to continue the war against Iran.
Reuters has spoken with one of Trump’s advisers and other individuals closely involved in the discussions. Their statements provide insight into the decision-making process in the White House, which is adjusting its strategy for the U.S.’s largest military operation since the Iraq War in 2003.
Differing internal perspectives
The maneuvers behind the scenes underscore the high stakes for Trump, who returned to the White House pledging to avoid “dumb” military interventions but ended up embroiled in a war that destabilized global financial markets and disrupted international oil trade.
The struggle for Trump’s attention is a hallmark of his presidency, but this time it concerns the consequences of war and peace in one of the world’s most unstable and economically crucial regions.
After deviating from the ambitious goals Trump set when initiating the operation against Iran on February 28, the American president has emphasized in recent days that he views the conflict as a limited campaign whose objectives have largely been achieved. However, this message remains unclear to many, especially to the energy markets reacting to Trump’s statements.
On Wednesday, March 11, Trump said that the U.S. had “won the war” and then suddenly added: “We don’t want to go home early, do we? We must finish this.”
Economic advisers and officials, particularly from the U.S. Treasury Department and the National Economic Council, warned Trump that the shock to the oil markets and the rising gasoline prices could quickly undermine domestic support for the operation against Iran.
High-ranking political advisers and economic experts, whose pre-war warnings of a possible economic shock were largely ignored, seem to have played a significant role in Trump’s attempt this week to “calm” the volatile markets and dampen oil and gas price hikes.
Trump’s public shift in stance, downplaying the impact of the war by describing it as a “brief excursion,” and his assertion that price hikes would be short-lived, appeared aimed at allaying fears of a prolonged conflict.
Some top advisers urged Trump to end the operation in a way that he could declare “victory,” at least militarily, even if much of the Iranian regime were to survive along with remnants of its nuclear program.
Wave after wave of American and Israeli airstrikes eliminated a number of Iranian leaders, destroyed an arsenal of ballistic missiles, crippled a significant portion of the fleet, and weakened the ability to support military allies in the Middle East. However, Iran’s attacks on tankers and transport facilities in the region have seriously undermined the military successes.
Trump has said that he will personally decide when the war should end.
The shifting official justifications for starting the war, which has spread to more than half a dozen other countries, have only made it more difficult to predict how the situation will evolve.
Analysts believe the Iranian regime may declare victory simply for having survived the operation, especially after demonstrating its ability to strike back and harm Israel, the U.S., and their allies.
The Strait of Hormuz will be crucial to the war’s outcome. This waterway, through which typically a fifth of the world’s oil shipments pass, is virtually blocked. In recent days, Iran has attacked tankers and other ships near the strait, and the country’s new top leader Mojtaba Khamenei has vowed to continue blocking the waterway.
If Iran’s control of the strait leads to a significant rise in gasoline prices in the U.S., it could increase political pressure on Trump to halt the military campaign to assist the Republican Party, which aims to maintain its slim majority in Congress in the midterm elections in November.
Trump has recently refrained from pushing the idea that the war aims to overthrow the regime in Tehran. According to U.S. intelligence assessments, Iran’s leadership is not threatened with imminent collapse.
At least some of the confusion surrounding the war against Iran appears to be linked to the U.S.’s rapid military successes in Venezuela.
I think this is a somewhat strange statement related to the Strait of Hormuz:
“Finance Minister Scott Bessent promised on Sky News that escorts will begin ”as soon as it is militarily possible”, but so far the USA has repeatedly rejected requests for escorts. The risks have been considered too great – even though Donald Trump earlier this week thought that the oil tankers could very well go through the strait on their own.
– They should show a little courage, there is nothing to be afraid of… They have no fleet, we have sunk all their ships, he told Fox News.”
So my question then becomes, Ukraine also has no fleet, and how has it gone for Russia at sea?
The quote is from here: https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/varlden/trump-trodde-inte-iran-skulle-blockera-hormuzsundet/
Young Mr. Trump has really messed up.
Thank you for your reports and analyses Jocke, worth reading.
“❗️Zelenskyy has arrived in Paris: a meeting with Macron and a joint press conference are scheduled, – Office of the President of Ukraine. After that, the leaders will continue their conversation in a one-on-one format.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mgwdhlgra22p
An American KC-135 tanker aircraft has crashed in western Iraq during the operation “Epic Fury,” the U.S. military reported according to Reuters.
“Two aircraft were involved in the incident. One of the planes crashed in western Iraq, and the other landed safely,” writes the U.S. Central Command, according to Sky News.
The Central Command adds that the aircraft did not crash as a result of hostile fire.
The military is now conducting a rescue operation at the site. It is unclear if anyone has been injured or killed.
“At least six French soldiers have been injured in a drone attack in Iraq, reports Sky News.
The base is located in Makhmur in northern Iraq and is shared by French forces and Kurdish Peshmerga forces.
The extent of the injuries is unclear.”
“The traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may come to a standstill, but Iran still manages to export a significant share of its oil on the world market, reports Reuters.
The US neither can nor wants to stop the Iranian shipments through the strait, says Middle East expert Alexander Atarodi to TV4 News.
– The US does not want to disrupt the oil market and risk higher prices for American consumers, he says.
Since the war broke out, Iran has shipped between 14 and 17 million barrels of oil through the strait, according to data from various tracking services.”
https://omni.se/irans-olja-fortsatter-floda-i-sundet-usa-vill-inte-rubba/a/xrme4B
Current oil prices:
Crude: 97
Brent 102
Ural 89″
“Iran threatens to strike against the entire region’s fossil infrastructure if the country’s own energy facilities are attacked, reports CNN.
“In the event of such aggression, all oil and gas infrastructure in the region where the USA and its Western allies have interests will be set on fire and destroyed,” the Revolutionary Guard stated in a release.
Iranian retaliatory attacks against neighboring countries have been ongoing since the war began. Attacks on ships in the Persian Gulf have also increased in recent days, with six ships hit in the past 24 hours.
The attacks have continued despite Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s promise to cease them. However, the statement was immediately met with skepticism from experts. Al Jazeera journalist Resul Serdar said it was unclear what actual power the president had on the matter.”
https://omni.se/irans-hot-satter-regionens-energisektor-i-brand/a/k0wmRa