Update
Trump has stolen some of the limelight last week and this – my final analysis is ready and I don’t have much more to add, especially since his domestic policy is uninteresting to me.
Yesterday, information started to emerge that Ukraine will sign the agreement and in an interview with Trump, he says that Ukraine will receive 350 billion USD, “lots of weapons,” and “can continue fighting.” A wild guess without more information is that the money and weapons are now in place.
But if this means that Trump does not actively oppose continued “fighting,” is it perhaps worth it?
But the quick-witted immediately noted two very important points from Trump –
-Ukraine INTENDS to continue killing Russian bastards and is not at all weak as some try to suggest.
-Through this deal, Trump generously will not actively prevent Ukraine from continuing to kill Russian bastards (truly generous…)
Pair this with the absolutely gigantic aid packages that the EU is now announcing, and everyone probably understands that it is starting to shape up into a perfect storm for Putin.
It seems that UA has formally confirmed that they will sign the agreement (translate the text).
And here was the “agreement” or whatever it actually was – a mutual declaration of intent?
https://kyivindependent.com/exclusive-the-full-text-of-the-final-us-ukraine-mineral-agreement
And Zelensky has probably made a statement as well.
My personal opinion is of course that this is horse-trading extortion at its worst by the USA, but if Ukraine sees value in it, which they must because otherwise they have the EU to fall back on, then this is good.
If I were to guess, they have bought that Trump will not sabotage things in the future with a beautiful signature.
This is not an “agreement” and not “binding” as stated in the text.
It is then a declaration of intent that is completely without substance, and normally the parties spend years haggling over the fine print.
However, if Trump starts to backtrack on his promises once this document is signed, or in any way undermines Ukraine, he will probably have a rough time in the Oval Office.
Here you have bipartisan support in Congress for Ukraine – very strong.
And Trump’s statement is after all on film.
I see this as a simple way for Ukraine to appease Trump and have him entangled in a chain, so to speak.
Then I want to briefly address these damn security guarantees and peacekeeping troops that refuse to die out – when has it ever worked, name one occasion?
Security guarantees are not worth the paper they are written on if it is not the neighbor who is guaranteed to be the next target who is the guarantor.
Peacekeeping troops are pointless – they retreat when things get serious most of the time, saying they were not authorized to engage in combat and that there was no longer peace to keep.
The sooner we get away from this, the better.
Back to the war – yesterday, a veritable atomic bomb arrived that most people didn’t even raise an eyebrow at. I released it on Bluesky and in the comments section, and there was a bit of a frenzy with violent joy and spontaneous celebration when everyone understood the enormity of what had just happened.
We have at times described the terrible FAB bombs that bury platoons alive.
FAB has replaced the artillery that Ukraine has broken the back of, and the Russian drone weapon hasn’t been doing so well.
A while ago, UA announced that they can now shoot down the FAB bombs themselves, although it was somewhat hidden behind a curtain.
Now RU announces that all their FABs are disrupted by televapen (EW) and the hit rate is terrible. Missing by a hundred meters means no Saturday candy for the pilots because the whole point of FAB was a direct hit.
Russia is slow to adapt and within 3-4 months will not even be close to solving the problem, and you can see for yourself where we are on the calendar then – the end of June, and Ukraine is already in Moscow revving up the engines.
Ukraine has previously broken the back of Russian artillery, which is now down to +5000 shells/day, where North Korean ammunition and band howitzers have been purchased for gold.
The Russian drone weapon is subject to strong EW interference.
And now the FABs are disrupted, so they hit somewhere within a 2-hectare radius rather than a meter.
Ukraine has broken the back of ALL Russian indirect capabilities now 💥
At the same time, Ukraine’s drones are EW-resistant or resilient, and they are expected to produce 4 million this year. And RU takes 70% of its losses from UA drones – there you go 😲
(the West needs to understand that it is drones and not aircraft, artillery, robots that will cause the major losses in the future. After all, Ukraine has them all now, but drones are by far the best, or worst for the Russians in the trenches).
Ukraine also has artillery – they have produced 154 Bohdana, for example, in 2024 (I think that was the number…)
They also have aviation, and the release of JDAMs has increased significantly.
You will see much more of this at the Dnieper front, for example.
Ukraine has GRK, guided ammunition, GPS ammunition, dumb ammunition with excellent hit accuracy from, for example, Archer.
They have robots, drones, and what else.
They have their Uber for artillery, so target acquisition for hits is so short that Western artillerymen feel like they’re dealing with poor customer service.
They have the digital battlefield where attacking/defending units have an overview from above, and combat units are directed and know what is happening in real-time.
Defending units are torn apart when drones swoop in horizontally through every opening and blow up all reinforced spaces, and when the defense goes into firing positions, cluster ammunition rains down on them.
Then the attacking unit has a complete overview and knows exactly where the defenders are, how many, and with what weapons.
Once they are taken out, the attacking unit immediately receives information about the size of the response force and where it is coming from.
Yes, it’s not like this everywhere, but a lot of units are fighting like this now, and they can be pooled together into focal points.
And against them, they have sniper teams with support from the brand-new Kräl infantry, and the response force is either donkey infantry or scooter infantry.
You can understand for yourselves how this will end, and it’s not the sniper teams that will win 😀
Fire on target/suppressive fire with attacking combat vehicles is getting better and better with stabilized cannons in new weapon stations and night vision devices that make targets stand out like a beacon in the background – impossible to miss.
Let Ukraine now start their offensive, and you will understand why there are reasons to be -positive-positive.
You already know this because you have diligently read Johanno1.se all month, but this is Putin’s game plan that is now being torpedoed one violent torpedo at a time –
Russia would achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine one way or another with Trump’s help and thereby be able to free up more troops. North Koreans and Chinese could also have been used for border surveillance against UA, and especially the Chinese could have been peacekeeping troops in place for peace in our time and to save the children. The purpose is to be a roadblock for UA to attack across the demarcation line.
Second best is that RU, with the help of NK, at least manages to keep the fierce Ukraine at bay and can use its Baltic-strategic reserve as intended.
We already know that RU is setting up two army corps, and Ukraine believes there are 150,000 in this reserve. Whether with or without NK and Belarus, I do not know.
Now RU and Belarus have entered into various agreements on mutual assistance, so it’s just a false-flag away from being attacked by Poland and/or the Baltics, thus having a very Russian “casus belli” in quotation marks.
Belarus’ defense forces have been trained by Wagner since the summer of 2023, and the surviving Wagner members are considered competent. Apparently, Belarus’ defense forces were on paper 100,000, but in reality maybe 15,000 in combat units, and Belarusian SOF have fought in Kursk and were the first to run. However, Belarus has probably done what they can with the defense forces to improve reasonably?
Similar to all the movies we’ve seen, thus with circus-SOF 🤣
Wagner started with 7,000, then 3,000, and then I’ve seen 11,000, but there is still a significant group of Wagner remaining in some form at least.
Then we have the 150,000 Russians in their two army corps, and RU has allocated better equipment to them, that’s my guess.
Even though they are newly formed, they have presumably been organized around experienced units, and they have work experience with drone weapons and the warfare of 2025 – quite self-experienced.
In September, Zapad-25 has been announced, and just like last time before the UA war, only 13,000 were supposed to participate, and then 200,000 participated, and international observers were avoided.
This is a FULL mobilization against the Baltics, Poland, the Baltic Sea, and the whole shebang if I may guess?
The Baltics have just started laying mines against Russia this year, was supposed to start in February, right?
Then there is water towards Estonia both from the Baltic Sea and from the east that they may not have fortified as well?
Their defense forces are ridiculously small, and Western units in the area are in battalions, if I remember correctly, now also with a Swedish battalion.
Zapad25 – all attempts by the West to mobilize units towards the eastern border will be met with Russia’s full subversive activities, and in countries where they can influence majority decisions, no units will be sent.
There will be sabotage in the West to delay our mobilization, there will be chaos in the streets, banks will crash, all sorts of things will explode, gang wars, and our left and right extremists will be at war on the streets supported by Islamists.
Belarus will pose a threat to Poland, which will consider the need for its defense forces for close protection, and the same with Finland regarding what is planned against them. Perhaps a lot of Chinese in some peacekeeping operation up there just to tie up troops, and they will never cross the border?
In the Baltics, there are the brigades that the West has managed to send off + their own units that the countries have mobilized to defend the country.
First, there will be large-scale infiltration by Russian special forces, and the invasion itself will be airborne, reconnaissance, and SOF conducting their raids, a massive pre-emptive strike, and then a mechanized attack. Yes, it will be Russian style, but this is a new task force where all capabilities have been (re)created.
Since Putin’s game plan is as follows –
-invade a poorly defended area, take the terrain, go on the defensive preferably behind a river or dominant terrain, deploy the indirect umbrella and all protective capabilities, and then move west.
-So it’s enough if there is only an Estonian or Swedish battalion defending in any area, and he can throw a division against them.
How is our EW against his FAB, how are our drones, how is our defense against RU drones, against RU artillery, against RU ground combat?
When RU has swept away a weak defense and gone on the defensive themselves, round two will come.
The EU now needs to mobilize at a 3:1 ratio to the area and RECAPTURE the lost terrain.
Russia’s subversive activities will go at supersonic speed, and country after country will fall away.
Is it worth sacrificing our sons and daughters for 15 hectares of potato fields in easternmost Estonia?
If the answer is no, NATO has fallen, and rogue states will increase the pace.
If the answer is yes, Putin’s only downside is that he needs to bring home two battered army corps and then deny everything.
Does anyone seriously believe that the West will invade Russia?
This is Putin’s next step – Ukraine warns, Belarus has the agreements ready, and Zapad25 has been announced.
This is a reality we have to deal with, and it will happen in September if Putin manages to handle Ukraine adequately – then the EU will be there and must make tough decisions.
So for me, it’s quite clear that the EU will now allow Ukraine to fight in the way they see fit and provide them with more equipment. With a bit of luck, Trump is now pacified with a nice signature on a paper – Chamberlain anyone 🤣🤣
Anyway, there are violent counterattacks in Toretsk now
And a herd of North Koreans are trapped in Kursk and have to choose between starting to nibble on each other or surrendering, and Ukraine seems to be okay with both options.
I also want to remind you of the absolutely hysterically popular Friday binge that will happen this Friday around 6:00 p.m. Previously, I have hyped it up on Bluesky and then sat alone and posted all evening while drinking rum. No more, it’s a lively party with cool guys, girls, and all other identities who are there with playlists and innovative dance moves that will be the next big thing after the brand-new hip-hop – don’t miss out, I’m just saying.
And last but not least, Romania has chosen a side – congratulations and welcome to the bright side.
If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,
If you want a fun comment section that is really starting to pick up and is no longer just me hyping it up on Bluesky and then sitting there all alone and drunkenly posting – johanno1.se
There are about a hundred comments there daily packed with information 😲
On Substack, you are very welcome to become paying subscribers, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciating all the work put into this and taking the step to subscribe 👍
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
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Hover over your name at the top right, select edit profile, and you will then find the setting under the language settings heading.
Russian losses 2025-02-27
1150 KWIA
8 Tanks
13 APVs
69 Artillery systems
1 Anti-Aircraft system
141 UAVs
140 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
1 Special equipment
Glory to Ukraine!
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lj55ia2n3s2s
Hight artillery💥!
Spank 💥!
Jeez, they’re really hitting hard on the artillery again – skyrocketing losses 💥
Operational information from 08:00 on 27.02.2025 about the Russian invasion
110↗️ in the last day.
#Kharkiv 5
#Kupyansk 5
#Lyman 5↘️
#Siverskyi 1↘️
#Kramatorsk 5
#Toretsk 10💥️↗️
#Pokrovsk 33💥💥️
#Novopavlivka 19💥️↗️↗️
#Huliaypillia 3
#Orikhiv 2
#Kursk 18💥️↗️
I #Toretsk sector, AFRF🇷🇺 conducted ten attacks in the areas of Toretsk and Krymske.
Map AFU: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gkxk2O1WUAAUnsX.jpg
I #Pokrovsk sector stopped the attack of 33 attackers from the AFU🇺🇦 against the settlements of Tarasivka, Novotoretske, Myroliubivka, Promin, Leontovychi, Kotlyne, Udachne, Nadiivka, and Uspenivka.
AFU map: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gkxk2xMXcAA0Wlw.jpg
In the sector #Novopavlivka, AFRF🇷🇺 carried out 19 attacks towards Kostyantynopil, Rozdolne, Shevchenko, and Burlatske yesterday.
Map AFU:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GkxmdXNXsAIpTiE.jpg
Ukrainian defense forces continue operations in the #Kursk region. Yesterday, the AFRF🇷🇺carried out 16 air strikes, released 21 glide bombs, and fired artillery 463 times, 36 of them from multiple rocket launchers. Ukrainian defenders repelled 18 attacks.
Map of AFU:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gkxk3nkW4AA0ShW.jpg
Yesterday, the AFRF🇷🇺 launched 4 missile attacks (4 rockets) and 81 air strikes, dropping 121 glide bombs on Ukrainian units’ positions and settlements. In addition, it carried out approximately six thousand️ artillery attacks, including 109 from MLRS, and used 2557 kamikaze drones.
During the past 24 hours, AFU🇺🇦’s missile troops and artillery have hit an area with personnel concentration, four command posts, an electronic warfare station, an artillery unit, and another important target.
7/7
Mathematically, it seems that Kursk is currently in third place in the priorities, which may seem strange. What does Moscow know or think they know that motivates this?
Date Kuk Pok Tot Nia Tnk Apv Art Cab Air
2025-02-27 18 33 110 1150 8 13 6000 121 81
2025-02-26 16 25 98 1170 19 15 5672 128 92
2025-02-25 11 28 98 1300 5 11 5000 117 85
2025-02-24 19 22 96 1050 9 6 5000 106 52
2025-02-23 13 34 112 1180 7 12 5300 135 81
2025-02-22 15 29 90 1140 15 9 5000 92 72
2025-02-21 29 34 121 1280 12 18 5500 93 151
2025-02-20 14 32 122 1190 14 14 5757 87 131
2025-02-19 10 50 156 1300 19 23 5600 144 94
2025-02-18 13 55 139 1170 12 12 5000 99 71
2025-02-17 16 40 129 1530 16 52 5500 141 95
2025-02-16 15 71 261 1730 5 84 4000 88 59
2025-02-15 23 36 112 1180 11 17 5809 91 66
2025-02-14 23 38 113 1200 17 16 6000 133 89
Date
Cock
Pok
Tot
Nine
Tnk
Apv
Art
Cab
Air
2025-02-27
18
33
110
1150
8
13
6000
121
81
2025-02-26
16
25
98
1170
19
15
5672
128
92
2025-02-25
11
28
98
1300
5
11
5000
117
85
2025-02-24
19
22
96
1050
9
6
5000
106
52
2025-02-23
13
34
112
1180
7
12
5300
135
81
2025-02-22
15
29
90
1140
15
9
5000
92
72
2025-02-21
29
34
121
1280
12
18
5500
93
151
2025-02-20
14
32
122
1190
14
14
5757
87
131
2025-02-19
10
50
156
1300
19
23
5600
144
94
2025-02-18
13
55
139
1170
12
12
5000
99
71
2025-02-17
16
40
129
1530
16
52
5500
141
95
2025-02-16
15
71
261
1730
5
84
4000
88
59
2025-02-15
23
36
112
1180
11
17
5809
91
66
2025-02-14
23
38
113
1200
17
16
6000
133
89
Date
Cock
Pok
Tot
Nine
Tnk
Apv
Art
Cab
Air
2025-02-27
18
33
110
1150
8
13
6000
121
81
2025-02-26
16
25
98
1170
19
15
5672
128
92
2025-02-25
11
28
98
1300
5
11
5000
117
85
2025-02-24
19
22
96
1050
9
6
5000
106
52
2025-02-23
13
34
112
1180
7
12
5300
135
81
2025-02-22
15
29
90
1140
15
9
5000
92
72
2025-02-21
29
34
121
1280
12
18
5500
93
151
2025-02-20
14
32
122
1190
14
14
5757
87
131
2025-02-19
10
50
156
1300
19
23
5600
144
94
2025-02-18
13
55
139
1170
12
12
5000
99
71
2025-02-17
16
40
129
1530
16
52
5500
141
95
2025-02-16
15
71
261
1730
5
84
4000
88
59
2025-02-15
23
36
112
1180
11
17
5809
91
66
2025-02-14
23
38
113
1200
17
16
6000
133
89
Datum
Cock
Pok
Tot
Nine
Tnk
Apv
Art
Cab
Air
2025-02-27
18
33
110
1150
8
13
6000
121
81
2025-02-26
16
25
98
1170
19
15
5672
128
92
2025-02-25
11
28
98
1300
5
11
5000
117
85
2025-02-24
19
22
96
1050
9
6
5000
106
52
2025-02-23 13 34 112 1180 7 12 5300 135 81
2025-02-22 15 29 90 1140 15 9 5000 92 72
2025-02-23 13 34 112 1180 7 12 5300 135 81
2025-02-22 15 29 90 1140 15 9 5000 92 72
2025-02-23
13
34
112
1180
7
12
5300
135
81
2025-02-22
15
29
90
1140
15
9
5000
92
72
2025-02-21
29
34
121
1280
12
18
5500
93
151
2025-02-20
14
32
122
1190
14
14
5757
87
131
2025-02-19
10
50
156
1300
19
23
5600
144
94
2025-02-18
13
55
139
1170
12
12
5000
99
71
2025-02-17
16
40
129
1530
16
52
5500
141
95
2025-02-16
15
71
261
1730
5
84
4000
88
59
2025-02-15
23
36
112
1180
11
17
5809
91
66
2025-02-14
23
38
113
1200
17
16
6000
133
89
Not quite as smooth as when I borrowed my parents’ electric IBM typewriter to make a table. 😓🥴
Here is a diagram.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GkytJygXkAAAzsv.jpg
A code for some serious mission I see 🧐
Budanov used to post them for me and Dengamle in the other blog.
Now I have to crack the code so I don’t miss the mission as well.
It is a table that shows the number of battles in Kursk (Kuk), Pokrovsk (Pok), total number of battles (Tot), Neutralized soldiers (including killed) (Nia), Tank losses (Tnk), Armored personnel carriers (Apv), number of artillery shells (Art), number of glide bombs (Cab), and number of air raids (Aur) per day during the latest period.
The table as an image:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gky9wAwWEAEFcKp.jpg
Above are some entries, a chart that became unclear (divided Nia and Art by 100 so that the lines would not spread out too much).
It’s difficult to see any significant deviation during the period. Possibly Pokrovsk. One would have to extend the timeline further back.
The Trump administration reportedly “proposing to affix levies reaching $1.5 million on Chinese-made ships arriving at American ports.
Such fees would apply even on vessels made elsewhere if they are operated by carriers whose fleets include Chinese ships”.
China’s shipbuilding capacity is superior to that of the USA. I wonder when there will be substantial tariffs on drones? In China, drones are built with robots, in the USA by hand.
https://x.com/jojjeols/status/1894936140941271114
That will certainly not be received quietly by China, reasonably. Yesterday when Trump announced a 25% tariff against the EU, the stock market crashed with 500 billion USD going up in smoke.
Oops, I missed that race!
I think Trump doesn’t care about the short-term consequences, he probably sees it mostly as a bump in the road in a process that will pay off in the long run.
If Zelensky is happy with the deal, then I am happy too.
But the really big “bombshell” is when Putin offered the US to mine minerals in the occupied area and in Russia just a few days ago, right?
Yes, politically he might as well have sent nuclear weapons to any country allied with Moscow.
But let’s start from the beginning.
So Putin entered Ukraine under the pretext of clearing out NATO and the USA from the country.
Since then, a lot of countrymen have either fled or been killed. The oligarchs have seen their assets frozen and soon to be seized.
This has been going on for three years now.
On the third anniversary of the war, Russia then offers the US mining of strategic minerals and a discount on aluminum.
I wonder what the relatives of those who have died in Ukraine are thinking now?
What will China, Iran, and North Korea say about Putin’s offer to Trump?
Weren’t they the best of buddies with Putin?
Let this really sink in now.
This will probably go down in history as one of the bloodiest and most senseless wars humanity has ever undertaken.
This is a war that will likely live on in humanity’s memory longer than the battle of Troy.
You can’t make this shit up.
Well, maybe the blogger wants some tips on songs for a Friday night out?
Here are two, in my opinion, good groups that have several great songs that are perfect for getting the party started.
It’s Ofenbach and Sofi Tukker.
If the USA is to keep its distance from China, they need to grow at least 4 times more per capita compared to China. Trump doesn’t want China to buy cheap raw materials from RU, instead he prefers to keep them for himself. This is a problem for us in Europe.
Additionally, the USA has a significant national debt where:
• 27% of the federal budget consists of loans
• 17% of the federal budget goes towards paying the interest on the loans
• The loans amount to 124% of GDP
Boosting growth while cutting expenses is a must. And if anyone has had trouble understanding this before, the USA’s debt trap should make that someone understand that we in Europe must take responsibility for our own security.
Trump wants to solve the problem, and some of the solutions are not in Europe’s interest (but rather America first), some are good, and some are bad or may even lead to a catastrophe for the USA itself.
But above all, Trump sees the war in Ukraine as a mess inherited from Biden, Biden should have solved the problem, he had more than three years from when they were sure RU would intervene until he left the presidency. And he is upset about that, and he also doesn’t like that Europe has done so little during these three years, and now they have the nerve to come and complain!
Perhaps now Europe has finally woken up. It’s amazing that it takes a madman in the White House for Europe to take things seriously, almost too late!
Agreed!
Hmmm. Maybe not such a bad idea after all to have American economic interests in Ukraine. It can have a protective effect against the Russians. One could say that the USA is on board. That’s probably what Zelensky is thinking.
Exactly. RU talks a lot about being at war with NATO to appear tough to its population. But they will be very careful not to strike directly at American interests, then they will find out what war with NATO really means, and they really don’t want that.
When I read Anders’ post, it gets quite confusing, at least for me. Why did they get involved in UA in the first place if the result will be more NATO in the vicinity and more USA? Is it really the case that Putin is completely calcified in the head and acts completely irrationally?
I posted a link about what Putin offered the USA a little further down.
You are probably aware of how Russia and China are more than happy to use natural resources as leverage or to create alliances?
So, with this in mind, what signals is Putin sending out now?
RU has a certain resemblance to Skistad, a lot of talk but they lose their air when things get tough.
Nice that Sundling showed who’s the best 😀
That was very interesting Anders Ryden, I have been a bit fixated on UA – Trump – Putin but you are absolutely right that Putin is approaching the USA and what does China think about that.
Right now, China has said no to a couple of things and then above it was posted that Trump is imposing tariffs on Chinese imports.
Putin is moving closer and China is being hit harder, so what does China think of Russia now because of this.
Great topic for Friday night drinks 👍
What if China loses patience with Russia and enters the border region to reclaim land. What should Russia do? Request help from the USA and the West?
It will be interesting to see what Zelensky does. He stated yesterday that he considers the “agreement” more of a draft. There is also nothing more concrete stated other than the intention to create a common investment fund for Ukraine.
Zelensky has also announced that he plans to ask Trump directly about security guarantees. I guess that is a central issue and that Trump cannot be sure that Ukraine will sign the letter of intent.
If Zelensky still accepts that the presence of the USA in Ukraine in some indirect way guarantees security and signs the letter of intent, then the common investment fund must still specify the parties’ intentions. As you write, it will probably take a long time and can fail in so many different ways:
– What assets are involved? Natural resources are tied to specific geographical areas. Ukraine has internationally recognized borders that the Moscow regime has invaded. If the USA and Ukraine agree that it applies to the whole of Ukraine, then the USA must reasonably also acknowledge that Moscow is occupying and must return these areas. But currently, unfortunately, there is nothing indicating this, rather the opposite. The USA refuses to acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine in an illegal act of aggression.
– What weapon deliveries is Trump talking about? What support? Most indications suggest that Trump is trying to both inflate US support after the fact and charge for something that Congress has provided to Ukraine.
Once again, without concrete commitments regarding continued military support, Ukraine’s incentive to create the fund naturally diminishes.
From a pragmatic perspective, it is smarter to, during a ceasefire, quickly initiate sharp negotiations with Europe and link these to security guarantees, initially perhaps seeking protection under France’s nuclear umbrella. It could also be a first step towards a European NATO, where Ukraine contributes its military power and Europe mainly provides arms factories, aviation, naval forces, and a nuclear umbrella. I am completely convinced that a nimble Europe can put together a package that deters the Moscow regime, provided that some form of ceasefire is still forced by the Trump administration.
Yes exactly – according to Trump, Zelensky is supposedly obediently on his way to him to sign a binding contract, but Zelensky’s press conference yesterday sounded very different.
Then a signed paper with a possible declaration of intent is about as valuable as Chamberlain’s paper.
It will be exciting to see the personal chemistry in their meeting now.
Do you believe in a ceasefire in the near future?
Difficult to say since Budanov and DG have made themselves untraceable. But with the American actions, I wonder if Ukraine really believes in American guarantees. So what we are seeing now may simply be an attempt to prolong the process and get as much as possible from the USA before the USA completely reveals its true intentions and withdraws its support.
Given the situation on the ground, a swift Europe can of course provide support so that Ukraine can continue the fight throughout the year and longer if necessary. A possible ceasefire can then be reached with Ukraine in a stronger position, and my napkin sketch can be implemented (Ukraine and Europe initiate cooperation on common security, Ukraine offers its formidable combat forces, Europe complements with air, naval, economic, and arms industries under the French nuclear umbrella. I think the snipers and donkey brigades will feel defeated then.
Now I didn’t have time to finish editing, but it’s just a napkin sketch and also of a cat 😳.
Then I’m in – yes, that’s what UA also says they need to START negotiating from a position of strength.
UA has geniuses like Budanov and probably a whole other one working at full speed with strategies.
If Zelensky, who is in the front, says yes, then I am satisfied. We do not have the whole picture clear to us.
Found an interesting post in Forbes suggesting that the deal could be beneficial for both the EU and the USA.
Definitely worth reading.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saleemali/2025/02/24/making-ukraines-minerals-deal-more-sustainable/
A surprisingly factual article from The Guardian about DOGE. I get the feeling that it’s not just about “drain the swamp” in Washington but that one can see a larger pattern where Trump wants to reduce the large federal budget deficit. When it comes to Ukraine, for example, it should not only be money out but also money in.
Is moderately interested in his domestic policy but yes, exactly – some things he does involve cutting back on things that previous government(s) have taken liberties with beyond what the agreement with the citizens is.
You are right, and right now there are some bumps in the road, but they will be forgotten if their long-term goal is achieved.
It probably wouldn’t have worked in Sweden as new authorities are constantly being discovered.
https://www.tn.se/inrikes/36196/har-ar-myndigheterna-du-och-regeringen-inte-kande-till/
This is the statement from Putin.
Read and let it sink in.
https://www.mining.com/web/putin-outlines-potential-aluminum-rare-earth-deals-with-the-us/
Of course, I am aware of how Russia uses strategic raw materials as leverage against various countries.
Like natural gas to Germany.
This is almost ingrained in their genes at the Kremlin.
But to make a statement like this, with regard to Kremlin’s logic, can only mean one thing.
Putin blinked and looked away first.
Putin wants to retain power and restart the economy.
Then it’s about how far RU should back down in Ukraine in the event of a peace agreement. Previously, I’ve heard that Trump’s demand is the limit before the full-scale invasion. Then Europe must push so that the threat of a total RU collapse is something worse than voluntarily backing down. But an RU collapse could lead to chaos that would cause Trump to miss out on deals that he wants, so the potential for the deals must exist, which Putin is now demonstrating.
Oops, there it was clearly spelled out – I find it very exciting too.
So, is it in Trump’s interest to maintain the previous administration’s policy that things shouldn’t go too badly for Russia?
The difference is that Trump does not want a prolonged war.
A good point that he is promoting peace instead of prolonged war 👍
As far as I know, Trump has not shown any interest in Putin’s proposal.
Or inquired about such a business arrangement.
Without this seeming, as I interpret it, to be mostly an expression of sheer desperation from Putin’s side.
After all, it is mainly about strategic minerals that he probably offered to China before.
I can’t see it any other way than him showing that he doesn’t hesitate to throw his current allies under the bus.
And that he is really desperate now.
Then I heard that the USA has extended its blockade against Russia for at least a year now.
If all this is true, I know someone who in the future will have a grave phobia of being near windows.
But considering Russia’s tradition of dark humor, Putin might perhaps die of acute lithium poisoning?
A geopolitical shift in course a.k.a “bomb”. If the EU and Ukraine, on their part, are getting closer to China, it could become even more interesting.
I have made some adjustments to the design of the site:
– Reduced the width of the running text, as long lines make it difficult to read (60-80 characters are usually recommended in print), currently it’s around 120 characters, still quite long lines. Now, of course, it will be a bit longer to scroll instead.
– Experimented with increased indentation for the comments and also added a thin border around them to make it easier to see which level the comments are at. The author’s comments are displayed with a background color, but that made it difficult to see where they belong in terms of level. The eye follows the color and not the text in the box, which is what actually controls it. Now, with the border and increased indentation, it should be a bit clearer.
– Made some changes to the colors, the yellow background color was a bit too much skin-colored pink, but now I wonder if it became too cool instead. On one of my screens, it almost looks a bit greenish-yellow. 😂
Feel free to provide feedback if there is anything you think should be improved.
I think it was a change for the better, like the frames. I have no issues with the background on my tablet.
Thank you!
I think it’s good because then the posts look longer and I can praise myself even more 👍
So there is a lot of work behind the site itself as you can see.
I can also increase the font size and line spacing if you want it to look even fuller..? 😄
😱!
I don’t notice a big difference except that it’s nice with shorter lines when I read from the computer screen 👍
Ha!
Went through incognito windows and then noticed the difference even on the mobile!
(Tried after reading MXT’s comment that Johan should have a blue background)
I see that Johan has a bit of a gloomy background, maybe it suits his personality 😁😁
Grey? It’s actually light blue now, so it harmonizes with the elevator music he walks around listening to. 😄
If it still appears grey to you, it’s probably your cache that hasn’t updated the stylesheets; you can try clearing it to see if you notice any changes.
For example, iPhones are usually extremely slow to realize that changes have occurred.
Now it turned baby blue 😆
Great with shorter lines. Much easier to scroll than to read long lines. Could possibly be shortened a bit more.
Top Mats.
Is it possible to have the horn function with red markings on the edge for new posts, and to be able to collapse threads without new comments. That would be a great feature. If you can wish for things anyway 🙂
It’s good enough!
Take it as easy as possible, MXT and No.1, and keep the maintenance to a minimum. It works fine.
According to Dagens Industri, Kremlin spokesperson Dimitri Peskov states that Russia is not prepared to negotiate about annexed areas in Ukraine.
According to Lavrov, they have annexed more than they have conquered.
Negotiation proposals should not be taken seriously.
Nice that Euromaidan Press has also highlighted “our” North Koreans in Nikolsky.
Nothing is happening on that front section, as they are waiting for the Koreans’ move.
They may have heard about what awaits NK POWs. UA does not want to send them back to NK as they are convinced they will be executed and are considering sending them to SK. However, SK warns that their families will be executed if they go to SK.
Full understanding if they take a bite of each other’s legs and wonder how their lives will end.
Damn, that’s great with edit 👍
Maybe I should have waited with this post until tomorrow’s hangover?
Where & when can one expect a renewed breakthrough in the depth of UA?
We note that:
– RU offensive seems to have “lost its edge” (quote from the Curse of the Wererabbit 😁)
– UA generally dominates the drone warfare and the operational depth in which they can operate is gradually increasing
– UA is removing more and more of RU’s rear units/material
– RU’s smaller, local attempts at offensive advances usually die out before they even reach UA’s lines
– RU FAB is controlled/steered away by EW
Shouldn’t this mean that UA can now rotate and boost their units so that they are ready to also focus on their own offensive?
If that is the case, the questions remain Where & When it might be appropriate to run over the Ryzzen?
Here is my own bet: I take advantage of the When-question.
UA can partly bet on cutting off large RU “salients” and/or driving straight in – a la Kursk.
The first option could be the RU bulge south of Pokrovsk. UA’s advantage is that they will have their own EW & drone umbrella from both “pincer” vectors.
The straight-in variant is tougher as UA may struggle to keep up with EW & drone umbrella. Either one can go for a variant west or east of the current Kursk position – so that they can benefit from support from existing units. Or you take a chance and do a quick Patton/Kharkiv where you believe the defense is weakest.
Considering all the floating devices, I am wondering if the southern front could be a possibility after all.
I hope it can work out. In hindsight, it may be a long shot.
Dnipro is certainly a formidable obstacle compared to the waterways where RU has more or less gotten stuck. UA’s latest attempt was clearly commendable, but in the end, they were forced to give up – even though they received maximum support from the high positions on the northern shore.
The real offensive will come when the dandelions bloom and the ground dries up, I believe.
So not until after the frost has melted and the ground can bear heavy vehicles.
We are already in the early stages of the offensive.
The next step is probably a landing on Crimea.
Then, as I said, the real offensive will come when the birches bloom.
Now in March, it’s impossible to move across the fields.
It’s better to focus on remote attacks right now.
Beginning of April – mid April
Thank you weather gods for pointing out When it can happen.
Can the same gods guess where?
UA has apparently learned that Russian fiber to drones is reflected in the sunlight and has learned to follow these back to the operator. Russian drone operators are obviously living dangerously, if not Google’s explode they find them via fiber when the sun shines.
Yes, that is uplifting. I long believed that RU had a comparative advantage with these fiber drones – albeit in limited volume.
But UA has found an effective way to cut off the head of this Hydra.
Perhaps the next step is for these drones to have a ground-based hub a bit away from the pilots’ hideout?
Hey, Trump extends the sanctions: https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-03462.pdf
The actions and policies addressed in these Executive Orders continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States. For this reason, the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13660, which was expanded in scope in Executive Order 13661, Executive Order 13662, and Executive Order 14065, and under which additional steps were taken in Executive Order 13685 and Executive Order 13849, must continue in effect beyond March 6, 2025. Therefore, in accordance with section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)), I am continuing for 1 year the national emergency declared in Executive Order 13660.
You can’t trust anyone nowadays 🙂
It gets better: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5167646-trump-zelensky-dictator/
When asked by a reporter whether he still believed Zelensky was a dictator, Trump responded: “Did I say that? I can’t believe I said that. Next question.”
“We want to work with him, President Zelensky … and we will work with him,” Trump said. “I think the president and I actually have had a very good relationship. It maybe got a little bit testy because we wanted to have a little bit of what the European nations had.”
You don’t need to take drugs. Just follow the news.
Zelensky is on his way to the USA to meet Trump tomorrow.
Are they BFF tomorrow?
#Pokrovsk. Excerpt from AFU🇺🇦 General Staff’s update from tonight, at 10:00 PM on 27.02.2025, about the Russian invasion.
Out of today’s total of 118 battles, no less than more than a third (42) originate from the Pokrovsk sector:
“The enemy is intensively attacking Ukrainian defenders in the direction of Pokrovske. The attacker carried out 43 raids and offensive attacks there during the day. The Russian occupiers were most active in the areas of Berezivka, Myrne, Promin, Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Novoukrainka, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Preobrazhenka, Zaporizhzhia, Andriivka, and Bohdanivka, where 12 combat actions are still ongoing. The enemy used 15 guided bombs against the settlements of Oleksiyivka, Pokrovsk, Udachne, and Zvirove. According to preliminary estimates, the occupiers’ losses in this sector since the beginning of the day amounted to 72 killed and 67 wounded. In addition, the defense forces destroyed a vehicle, a cannon, a motorcycle, and a quad bike, a portable electronic warfare station, two SuperCam reconnaissance drones, and a Zala. A tank, two artillery systems, and a multiple rocket launch system were also disabled.”
Relatively low losses, I must say. There usually are several hundred in fewer battles, if I remember correctly, but I haven’t checked.
Ukraine needs only 10-20 nuclear warheads and the security issue is resolved.
Ukraine needs only 10-20 nuclear warheads and the security issue is resolved.
https://x.com/olenawave/status/1895185760229171570?s=46
👍🏻
Image.
‘Mr. Budanov has a book in his hands. Its name is “Liquidation of the Russian Empire”. Be like Budanov, come to us to fight the evil empire as Reagan called them!’
https://x.com/olenawave/status/1895149770194227659?s=46
“Mr. Budanov has a book in his hands. Its name is ‘Liquidation of the Russian Empire’. Be like Budanov, come to us to fight the evil empire as Reagan called them!
Image illustrating the above.
https://x.com/olenawave/status/1895149770194227659?s=46
PS! Pictures and tables in the top comment, please! It can’t hurt.”
MatsExtrude & Johan No.1
PS! Pictures and tables in top comment, please! It can’t hurt. If feared anyway, the person insisting on a picture can be informed that the comment will need to be approved before publishing. Sub-comments can be without the possibility of a picture. It should be quick here anyway. The top comment is a bit more thoughtful and there you also want to be able to illustrate. The top comment is a comment on today’s update.
The person who made the top comment may be allowed to have images etc. (cf. today’s update) in the sub-comment (if you want to create a thread 🧵). But others who reply must settle for black and white. However, should today’s update have its own sub-comments?
“Russia is investing 9 percent of its GDP on its military. They will want to use it again.”
@kajakallas explains why Europe needs to further increase security to deter Russia in the long term.
“Ryssland investerar 9 procent av sin BNP på sitt militär. De kommer att vilja använda den igen.”
@kajakallas förklarar varför Europa behöver ytterligare öka säkerheten för att avskräcka Ryssland på lång sikt.
https://x.com/hudsoninstitute/status/1895160776098267262?s=46
Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive near Toretsk and near Pokrovsk
For the first time since 2022-2023, – Lieutenant “Alex”.
https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1894776121691926852?s=46
Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a counteroffensive near Toretsk and near Pokrovsk
For the first time since 2022-2023, – Lieutenant “Alex”.
https://x.com/heroiam_slava/status/1894776121691926852?s=46
Today’s comment section was great!
Now there’s some thinking going on and Trump is being interpreted. Plausible explanations are emerging, quite intelligent and better than what I could have come up with myself. – Not that I know what the right answer is, but I know that interpreting letters and shouting “fascist” is wrong.
The Trump administration is not made up of dimwits, but they have different values and different urgent goals. And they break taboos and behave in general to move forward. Therefore, some things go wrong or completely awry, but “shit happens.” – What Trump et al. are counting on is the total of success, relative to their goals. (They find others’ opinions about them uninteresting.)
Even in other media, there are writers emerging who think and interpret rather than just shouting “fascist” when Trump is mentioned.
(JD Vance is most likely the next US president, regardless of what the media thinks today. It is Americans who vote for the next president, not European media.)
👍
Also believe in Vance as the next president. Trump does and understands what he must do, namely appointing a successor who is allowed to be seen and take place. Putin has not done that, Annie Lööf did not do it.