Ukraine daily update February 7, 2025

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Update

Now in times of joyful violent offensive, never forget the shooters behind the offensive – they have been fighting for several years, are dead tired, underequipped, and low on ammunition but they scrape together what they can and do the impossible every day. Hats off to their completely improbable effort every day.

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https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1886864868093124902

Now I’m a day late due to the job hassle but here comes a summary of UA’s violent world-leading offensive straight into Kursk that has completely caught the Russians off guard and the road to Moscow is wide open (some risk that I got carried away a bit there..). Have posted some about this on Bluesky but now at least the post comes with some deeper clinical lab tests that form the basis of the analysis.

Also want to mention that Trump’s peace plan might be a betrayal because it seems to include frozen fronts as the rumors suggest – then RU has managed to talk the West down and we must pray to the gods.

But… Kellogg flatly denies it so the question is what to believe right now

The Fronts –

It’s all Rumint but it’s reported by several osint sources and they base it on Russian sources so I choose to go with this.

My old schoolmate Noel has a better summary. Here comes his Bluesky link but I don’t get the whole thread like on Twitter but go in and check for yourself because he has a whole battery of tweets on the subject of crushed Russians in Kursk (if nothing else, Erik14 will be happy now that I didn’t post a Twitter link).

https://embed.bsky.app/embed/did:plc:4aqzua5vsewimmusg66fyajl/app.bsky.feed.post/3lhitzil6sk2b?id=00931350790383556

Ukraine is currently conducting an offensive in Kursk for a few days now, a first attempt a little earlier didn’t go well and we still have the offensive behind Sejm fresh in memory which crashed half of the Kursk adventure already in the beginning but now in the eastern part they have started to advance and the vanguard is said to have reached Ulanok.

At least in one attack vector, it’s battalion mechanized infantry, fully mechanized and not with old trucks and scooters like the Russians are using, nor the latest from the Russians – cavalry.

The number of attack vectors is a bit unclear but at least 3, maybe more.

They are taking advantage of a period of cloudy weather so the Russian sh1t drones can’t operate and it’s -2 daytime and -8 nighttime so no inhuman temperatures for UA.

But for RU, who now have to move units, the weather is not good at all – out of barracks and prepare defense systems and out on the road and take position in areas completely without heat sources. Then they can’t really start fires because the drones will be there in a few minutes regardless of the weather since they are light-years better than the Russian junk.

Welcome deep-frozen Russian 👍

If we look at Ulanok, RU has at least 7 better brigades in the area which is more than they should need for defense and Rumint says they must bring in reserves in full violent panic and that lines have now been broken through.

Rumint says that 11th AAB is defending so it matches well with the unit maps.

So RU has 7 brigades around the town of Ulanok and UA is advancing with a battalion attack and there is panic in the Russian command?

A bit early but possibly it tells us that RU units in the area are in poor condition and that UA is now testing a bit?

In the other situation picture, you see the terrain and it should be easily defensible, should be mined and three (3) brigades are around the small town of Ulanok.

There is a Spetsnaz brigade and an armored brigade as a strike force.

If we know Ukraine well, they will engage the strike forces when they are on the road and rolling towards the breakthrough and they should definitely have done that this time too regardless of the weather even if RU can move in the terrain and are not dependent on roads.

Furthermore, it is also an advantage for UA because they can attack through the entire terrain, watercourses like marshland and are not dependent on roads.

RU has probably placed their minefields in above-zero temperatures and considered watercourses and marshland as natural obstacles left unmined and then UA waited for a period of longer cold to be able to exploit full mobility.

UA has also shown they can clear minefields earlier in Kursk so they now master that technique fully.

Some different views on the North Koreans but they seem to have been pulled out to some extent.

And above all – and WHO said it from the BEGINNING… it was the North Korean SOF who fought in Kursk among others.

They had 1500 SOF and then 11th AC which are their better/best shock troops.

I must admit they fought worse than I feared but if you read the link, it’s probably more like Ukraine fighting at a wizard level and everything is always relative.

Here is almost a description of how to herd sheep.

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1887116076049149967?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Then there is the second attack vector in the western part of Kursk – or that’s wrong, it’s the third I think because there are two attack vectors to the east if I interpret this correctly, and the second attack vector is south of Ulanok.

In the west, the attack vector should be towards Kruglenkove and it’s straight into VDV land and it’s absolutely fertilized with VDV brigades in the area, Ukrainians are not lacking courage 😲

Now remains to see what happens with the FAB droppers but they are not very adaptable and it won’t be easy for them to hit a moving Ukrainian battalion attack.

It will be very exciting to see what comes of this and how weakened RU units in the area are.

They should not have easily accessible strategic reserves and if they need to move unprepared units from Ukraine, there is a window of about a week before they are in place.

We will soon see if UA has higher ambitions because then new attack vectors will pop up like mushrooms and above all, they will also strike elsewhere because it’s very Ukrainian.

Or, I’m sounding the gong now that Ukraine has launched an offensive.

Unbelievable – so they are doing this with existing units and not a well-prepared, equipped, and rested large strategic reserve. Yes, there are some brigades in the strategic reserve but when RU conducts their offensives, they have prepared several AC for the honor of dying in a potato field in eastern Ukraine and exhaust them, rinse and repeat.

I have previously confirmed in a few posts that we

This feels bigger than that – when stirring in the coffee grounds there are rings on the surface and a distinct dull rumbling from the edge of the forest as if from hundreds of engines, and I think you can hear faint cheers.

Anyway, Ukraine has hidden this offensive extremely well and played on negotiations and the whole soft part very skillfully – quite sure that not many leaders in the West expected a violent Ukrainian offensive straight into Russia’s soft Moomin Valley.

Now, of course, I missed discussing the losses the day before yesterday, but RU has over a million (not including non-combat-related injuries and accidents, in winter 2023, 30% of all in hospitals in Luhansk had frostbite injuries, for example). But now the Russians somewhat offset this by having crutch battalions with severely ill soldiers storming across the fields.

UA losses are 45,000 dead, which is in line with what we have previously been told, and 390,000 wounded, but everything is counted in, and as before, 80% of the wounded have been able to return to service.

But it clearly shows what a high-intensity war this is.

RU losses are probably also in line with ratios from previous wars, right?

Above all, it shows what joke figures the West likes to throw around when it comes to RU losses – who do you think has the best handle on it?

Apparently, UA has now carried out a relocation of 50,000 from the shaft to the tip. Already in the spring of 2024, it was reported that they had moved 200-300,000 to maneuver brigades.

Didn’t that happen then, or is this round two?

Since a place in combat units has so far meant almost guaranteed disability or death, it is not very difficult to understand that many are trying to find positions in non-combat units, and the number of positions has probably grown exponentially because bribes are being paid.

One cannot judge in this matter, for with what right can we assume that they should go and die?

However, the West should have done much more here – there should have been voluntary recruitment as a status activity in the EU with guaranteed veteran pensions from the home country and salaries paid from the home country (via aid packages) and let UA recruit heavily in the West.

A motivated volunteer is worth infinitely more than one who has been forced into their position, and obviously Ukraine is now running out of volunteers.

But then the shifts we are starting to see now will probably breathe new life into this, and with a bit of luck, there will be a rush to the recruitment offices to get a chance to kill a Russian before it’s over.

With the Russians, it’s the opposite, EVERYONE is running and signing contracts now to get their signing bonus before the war ends – no one expects to have to fight 🤣🤣🤣

Ukraine has finally begun its reorganization into army corps, and they seem to be thinking right – both Azov and the 3rd Assault Brigade will be the backbone of two of the army corps.

A total of 20 corps, and then they will probably take experienced and capable brigade commanders who will become corps commanders, one would guess?

The advantage is that they can include, for example, territorials and National Guard with less experience under an umbrella of elite units that can train them over time.

Just as the Marines did with the two Territorial Brigades over by the Dnieper, which are now officially part of the Marines – not bad for a home guard 😀✊

According to previous posts – give a corps responsibility for a front section and ensure that the corps have corps resources and redundancy. Then you get an effective defense.

Having brigades and then a Chief of Defense who lifts out individual battalions and micro-management paired with no management at all – not very elegant but probably a symptom of too rapid growth and the USA standing as the overcoat for too long.

It’s hard to see how RU can sustain this for many more months actually – the damages in just January have been devastating, and there are 11 months left in the year.

Now we have horse shooting or, as it is also called, cavalry.

https://twitter.com/m0nstas/status/1887101720381006064?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

At the same time, as Ukraine puts advanced weapon stations on all the old Eastern tanks so they become model 2025.

And the first deliveries of newly manufactured IFVs from the West have arrived and will arrive this year.

It’s easy to forget Africa, but it’s violent there too. I haven’t found a connection yet, but I’m pretty sure that Russia has something to do with M23 because their offensive straight into Congo is quite unexpected.

Then they threaten to attack Angola as well, which is completely bonkers, so I strongly suspect a Russian puppet master in the background.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/05/democratic-republic-congo-goma-women-raped-burned-death-prison-m23-rebels-rwanda?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-5

I also have to remind you of the legendary and world-leading Friday binge that will be held on johanno1.se and will be like a New Year’s fireworks display in Dubai in intensity, more or less.

There will be hysterically funny dog ​​videos as usual that will push you off your chair – don’t miss it at your own risk because the afterparty will be like a Lord of the Rings movie.

Starting around 5:00 – 6:00 and of course, there is limited space, so be quick to get in through the door 👍

If Budanov tries to terrorize me there as he did on Cornu the other day when I was trying to spread some joy in all peace, I have the block button ready 😐

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58 thoughts on “Ukraine daily update February 7, 2025”

  1. johan No.1

    Well, that was some “technical glitch” where I failed to post, posted on the wrong side, and what’s more, the post that was supposed to arrive this morning along with the morning paper arrived late.

    Very disappointed with everything except myself, who is perfect, but now I should have control over posting in the future 👍

  2. johan No.1

    Welcome to the legendary Friday binge with historical highlights such as beer review –

    We can reveal that they have okay beer here – namely “Presidente”.
    Easy to drink with no foamy taste, and it also comes in a one-liter (1L) jumbo bottle.
    Definitely worth what it costs, in anything other than pesos 👍👍
    End of legendary beer review.

  3. johan No.1

    Did you know that many good varieties of rum are produced here in the Caribbean, who could have guessed that 🤩
    Since I never get to decide, a bottle of whisky was bought instead, but imagine my surprise when it didn’t taste like in Sweden at all, but had a rather sweet taste, slightly rum-like..
    Imported spirits are local moonshine, which some might say about the country as a whole?

  8. johan No.1

    Spaning two – have had a job starting in April as a backup in case this would crash, but now with 1 liter of beer and rum, I have decided to stay.
    Goodness, how upset the project manager got, on a Friday, he clearly hasn’t noticed the one-liter beer.

  13. Skator

    Thank you for all your positive posts, Juan # Uno! It has taken me some time to crawl out of the winter depression after the West’s tardiness and the dark election result in the USA. However, you have been a recurring light in the darkness. I have always held on to my monetary support for UA but now hope to participate more in the discussions with you other, fine spear handles.

    Now back to Friday’s revelry 😁

    Slava Ukraini

    1. johan No.1

      Yes, it was nice to see you come in through the door here Skator, it’s been a while 👍
      Just took a quick look at Cornu now and there was a big fight about Biden-Trump as usual so some caution is recommended.

      Yep, Friday drinking is actually the solution to most things, you have to get so drunk that you forget which of Trump-Biden you don’t like and then the discussion is blown away.

      And thanks for the kind words 😀👍

      1. Analytikern

        Ducka in Cornu. The debate there is often (too often) less fun.
        Reading the blog, a must, but the blogger also goes a bit overboard with rants, nowadays (or is it just me who has grown tired).

  17. Skator

    Without any references.

    Ivan in general has an increasingly tough everyday life. Recently read that the price of potatoes has doubled in the stores. Gas prices are soaring in the western part of the country – despite hefty subsidies.
    More and more people are seeking the equivalent of our payday loans to be able to manage a negative (private) cash flow. The annual interest rates on these loans move in parity with the loan amount.

    Not only the country but also all these Ivans are increasingly struggling.

    Therefore, I firmly believe that 2025 will be the year when we break the back of the world’s largest terrorist state.

  18. johan No.1

    Guaranteed true, saw that RU gasoline prices have gone up 20% after the refinery attacks 👍
    This is completely unsustainable for RU right now.

    Just the fact that UA invaded Russia and RU can’t kick them out – what a thing 😀

    1. Skator

      Yes, RU is increasingly resembling a bleeding ulcer due to UA’s increased attacks on their soft spots. RU is not inclined to change its imperialistic dietary habits – even though it’s shitting more and more blood in its outhouse. It can only end in one way – on the operating table or in the morgue.

      1. Skator

        Sounds wonderful! When I was young and working at Ericsson, I got a gig in Curaçao. It was exotic, but the island was completely deforested as the Dutch quickly cut down all the trees for their boat building. Only bushes were left. Goats were the most common local source of protein. I had a goat stew at a local’s place, but it wasn’t great at all. Still grateful for the invitation and the experience.

        1. johan No.1

          haha, yes, as far as I’m concerned, the Caribbean has a much better reputation than it deserves but I have probably only scratched the surface.
          Exciting youth

          2. johan No.1

            Yes, I have on the list to find good snorkeling water to start with.

            There is a coral reef beach an hour away from here, but when I ran around at work and exclaimed that I was going there, everyone looked at me wide-eyed.
            Apparently, it’s the most infamous prostitution beach in the country 🤣🤣
            Of course, I had only googled coral reefs and the name came up, thinking of going there with the family.

          3. Skator

            Regarding the “prostitution beach”.
            Haha. Forget about it, I think. They obviously seek out places where tourists like to go. They are poor and need money. A family with children is not a business for them but they probably love children and that’s not wrong, right?

          4. johan No.1

            Yes, it is the only protected beach at a reasonable distance and there are sharks outside the reef. The next reef is 3 hours away so I have been thinking about exploring a weekend with the family to see if we can find a safe spot 😀

            Being eaten by a great white shark is not at the top of my wish list.

  22. Skator

    Zelenskyj & Co are quite street-smart in my opinion.

    They have managed to create an incredibly innovative & productive domestic arms industry. We increasingly see how this is having an impact in the war.

    They know where RU has its weaknesses and relentlessly strike again and again at these vulnerable points.

    They have – unfortunately after far too long – realized that a corps structure built around competence and experience gives the weapon branches what they really need. The effect is likely to come fairly soon.

    They know that EU membership is priority one and are working hard to get into the “inner circle.”

    They understand how to play the right cards in diplomacy – even towards a “what’s in it for me” guy like DT.

    1. johan No.1

      Japp – Ukraine is a country that the EU wants to have on board, they come with a whole suitcase full of items that we lack from perhaps the world’s strongest defense force, military industry, agriculture, raw materials, manufacturing, and a heck of a population.

    2. johan No.1

      They are insanely street smart 👍

      They built 4 million drones in 2024 and have carried out a strategic bombing war that usually requires planes and expensive robots with super cheap drones, achieving the same result.

  25. Skator

    Bedtime for the little guy. Nice to get back into the flow again, all friends. Thank you!

    Sleep tight in the buzz – whenever it suits you.

    2025 is the year!

  28. johan No.1

    Starting to get a little half-closed on gas but better than a New Year’s fireworks display in Dubai is the rating for tonight’s Friday intoxication.

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