Apparently Trump is supposed to make a statement on the night of March 4 where he will reveal the whole truth, so there might be reason for a revision below in a few hours 😀
The statements from the White House and all possible representatives have, in terms of strategic communication, not been good at all for the USA since the meeting with Zelensky.
The USA has threatened to cut off all support to Ukraine, completely withdraw militarily from Europe, that their weapon platforms purchased by countries in the EU will not work because they stop it, that Zelensky should resign, and a lot of other fun stuff that mostly falls under the category of threats.
Furthermore, the statements are a pure security risk for Ukraine as they could start creating dissatisfaction among the citizens in the worst case scenario (which they are not doing, BUT the USA seems to be trying their best…).
The only one who has really managed to dodge this bullet completely is Putin – the man who started the war 😲
Before all this, Trump promised on film to retake Mariupol for Ukraine and that he never called Zelensky a dictator, so I was starting to get a little worried that my final analysis that Trump – Putin should be considered as a homogeneous party in the negotiations would be proven wrong here, and that everything was 5D chess.
But Trump absolutely did NOT disappoint in the meeting with Zelensky at the White House, oh my goodness, and here is the whole clip for the historical archive 😲
As known, I wanted one of two reactions below, but then I hit the gongs prematurely and delivered my final analysis a couple of posts back –
-Trump leans back satisfied with an applause that the EU is finally taking responsibility in the Ukraine war and will be leading from now on. After all, that’s exactly what he’s been asking the EU to do all along, right?
-Trump calls the EU warmongers and that they do not want peace.
Now we got the second option, and with a vengeance – Trump and his administration are practically spewing statements that Zelensky is a warmonger who does not want peace, and Elon even mentions the children that Ukraine now wants to kill in the worst way 🤣
I will not change my mind – Trump and Putin are a homogeneous party in the negotiations.
Because what was the argument in the Oval Office about?
That Zelensky did not want an immediate ceasefire before everything else started in terms of negotiations. Trump’s whole game here was an immediate ceasefire ordered by Putin, everything else was just smoke. In hindsight, he seems more and more annoyed that he doesn’t get an immediate ceasefire in his statements.
(Now we know that Putin DESPERATELY needs this…).
Now we know this and it is indisputable.
RUMINT was that Trump tried to cancel the meeting with Zelensky, who went there anyway, apparently did not get the meeting cancellation.
The next rumor circulating now is that Zelensky was asked to just take the crap and keep a good face, but he had the audacity to be honest instead (I added the last part of course).
Previously, we knew that “Ukraine can continue to fight” – we had that on film from Trump as long as they signed the “agreement,” which was a poorly written opinion declaration at best.
But Trump has obviously been working all along towards a ceasefire – now we know that. It was supposed to come immediately so negotiations could begin. A classic Russian trick that we already know, and all they are doing is using the water break for round two.
So it was basically Chamberlain straight up but with a purpose and hidden agenda – to benefit Russia.
Apparently Trump is also extending the sanctions against Russia for another year, maybe to add some nuance 😀
But threats have already been made that Trump will cut off all sorts of support to Ukraine as revenge, and that they will leave NATO and all troops will leave Europe. Don’t know what has been implemented and what is Russian psyops in that mess…
For me, it is indisputable that Trump intended to humiliate Zelensky and provoke a negative reaction. Already at the handshake on the stairs, he starts talking down Zelensky.
And the reporter who mocked him for not wearing a suit was Marjorie Taylor Greene’s boyfriend – also prepared.
Do you ever see Elon Musk in a suit in the White House? Do India’s Modi or Saudi’s Bin Salman usually wear suits?
Elon runs around with a darn chainsaw and often has his son on his shoulders in the Oval Office.
Now we all feel that it was unfair, but everything was for a purpose – Trump is doing Putin’s bidding and this was highly intentional, nothing is unfair, it was designed to go this way.
If you have read these posts, you know my final analysis of Trump that I chose to post before we got confirmation that Putin – Trump are ONE party in these discussions, a homogeneous party that has open communication all the time. The side that still claims that Trump is negotiating smart doesn’t have much to go on anymore.
One was an immediate ceasefire that Putin has ordered because he needs it – if they could force Ukraine into it, everything would be won for Putin.
The other purpose of this meeting, since the EU has now risen as one and Trump got slapped by Macron, was that he wanted to come out harder.
Partly to look strong himself so he was unworthy towards Kier Starmer.
But…
The other hidden purpose of this meeting was to provoke a negative reaction from Zelensky so he would lose support from the international community, and the EU would turn its back on him.
They simply set a trap.
It worked at the NATO meeting in 2023 where the entire West called Zelensky ungrateful, and in September 2024 it also worked to talk down Zelensky harshly – both Trump and Biden behaved abominably.
Biden has behaved like this before.
So the likelihood of it succeeding again was high if they had managed to miss that the EU finally UNDERSTOOD what this poster said in a WHOLE WAR that Ukraine stands between us and armed conflict with Russia.
Presumably all the Chiefs of Defense in the EU have now warned their governments that it will explode at Zapad 2025 – you don’t need to be a Chief of Defense to understand that.
So the EU has now understood that giving Ukraine everything they point to saves our sons’ lives and spiraling costs – it’s simply good business.
And a couple of countries in the EU have realized that if the USA backs down, they can move forward significantly – Macron is quick there and Germany has also understood that.
Then I think the EU, just like Johan No.1, has realized what an incredibly valuable asset Ukraine is for the EU.
If Trump had pushed this in 2023, it would have worked, but now it’s too late and it’s absolutely lucky for the EU, again…
Trump’s peace plan is absolutely dead 🤩
Do you know who will be sitting VERY loosely from now on and not dare to eat anything at all or wear boxer shorts?
Yes – Putin 🤣🤣
The game is over for Ukraine’s offensive operations.
If we summarize the past two weeks –
-the peace negotiations pushed by Trump are as dead as they can be.
-Trump has made an absolutely epic fool of himself – this surpasses most of what we have seen in the past three years, even though it probably looked like this at the NATO meeting in 2023, for example, or at Biden’s meetings. Trump WANTED everyone to see this.
-sanctions against Russia are extended by a year (unless it has changed?)
-US material will continue throughout 2025 because of orders from the MIC that they get paid for, and nothing Trump can prevent if he wants to survive politically. Biden deserves full credit for this, sitting there with his kickbacks and feeling good. Now Trump has mentioned that he will end this, but good luck if you want to stay in power.
-the EU has finally realized the risk in all of this and has now come out with absolutely HUGE aid packages and full support in words – both in words and actions now.
-hard vehicles and all sorts of other things have been delivered since at least November, and country after country is providing more now – UA’s strategic reserves are being built up.
I would dare to say that the outcome of Trump’s disastrous negotiations turned out quite well after all, and compared to the ordeal of 2024, this is refreshing to see 🤣
This will also eventually bring down Trump, the Ukraine war will be his downfall.
Then you have part two of the geopolitical atomic bomb Putin has dropped – if you have read my posts, you know that we have already gone through this, but…
Ukraine is now turning to China instead.
What just happened?
The USA has conceded here.
The EU will ensure that Ukraine regains its 1991 borders by force.
If China wants, they could easily ensure that it returns to the 1991 borders, right? They have a stranglehold on Putin. It will happen anyway, so China might as well create goodwill from it.
If they do, they will probably get a mineral deal and reconstruction contracts with Ukraine, and they will look good in the eyes of the world and probably improve relations with the EU as a thank you.
And if you read my posts, there is an anchor in the EU for its trade route that goes through somewhere and two inland seas ending in Ukraine.
Do you think Trump had this in mind?
That the war will now end, China will have good relations with Ukraine and the EU, and Putin will lose big?
This meeting in the Oval Office has geopolitical consequences that Trump and Vance didn’t even know existed because they are absolute incompetents who can’t handle even simpler analyses.
My guess is as follows –
-The EU will now deliver on the promises of war-winning everything in the coming weeks (you remember my discussions about the war-winning weapons package that never needs to be fully delivered).
-Ukraine’s offensive will increase in pace, along with their strategic drone warfare.
-China will make statements that the war should end and that they respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity, as Turkey has done, and stop there.
-Internally, they will make it difficult for Russia, and North Korea will end its deliveries.
-China will have some sort of trade agreement with UA and the EU in the future.
-China will get a mineral deal and reconstruction contract with UA.
By the way, Turkey has received a reconstruction contract in Ukraine as thanks for its support, Ukraine is pragmatic.
And here, Putin has completely lost control of the situation. China can cut him off in a matter of months if they want.
What do you think the USA will do?
Probably Trump will loudly accuse UA and the EU of wanting war, being warmongers, imperialists, and all sorts of other idiotic things.
Then Trump will come down hard on China, and on the EU and UA for even discussing with China.
But the USA has no negotiation cards left – they have already cut off all aid to UA, they are starting to delay weapon contracts to the EU, they have already imposed tariffs on the EU.
Geopolitically, Trump has burned the USA for decades to come, if they ever recover from this. The USA is like the bank, not your friend, and their plan was for the EU to have a new Cold War with Russia that the USA would benefit from.
Economically, the USA is now losing market share in its exports that they will never regain.
But there is more –
Now you will see a huge influence operation against Zelensky, assassination attempts on Zelensky by citizens, demonstrations in UA, and a vote of no confidence.
One of Trump’s additional purposes with the humiliating meeting was to undermine Zelensky domestically so that he would fall politically.
Now that Ukraine has refused new elections, refused a ceasefire, and stood their ground, the next best thing was to try to bring down Zelensky as president and cause chaos that way instead.
The only way was to openly try to show that Zelensky was ruining something that would be good for Ukraine so that he would turn the citizens against him.
There you have Trump – he is doing Putin’s bidding not only in the peace negotiations but also trying to assist in every possible way.
Instead, this will bring down Trump, but it will probably take some time, there is no way he will serve his 4 years 😀
Probably not even until 2025.
I have been absolutely terrified that UA would fall into line with Trump and we would have our WW3, but now it actually seems like we can avoid this for real.
We have a few steps left to take, but unless China does something unexpected, this should be resolved.
Trump’s plan was Putin’s plan – give Putin a breather in Ukraine, fortify the border against UA with NK and maybe Chinese forces, and position the entire Russian army against the Baltics during the summer and during Zapad turn against the EU.
Welcome to the new Cold War, and the USA can sell oil, LNG, and weapons to the EU for the next 70 years, while the EU keeps quiet.
This is not thanks to the USA, Biden, or Trump, but thanks to Ukraine and Zelensky.
Zelensky got to meet King George, probably canceled the meeting with Trump as revenge 😀
I want to emphasize once again something we were early with: Ukraine is now disrupting FAB along all fronts so that they no longer hit – the weapon is obsolete.
This was the last thing they had, and it was a terrible weapon, but now all of Russia’s indirect capabilities are neutralized.
Russian doctrine revolves around artillery – they “wipe out kilometer routes” before rolling in over the bodies or defending themselves behind a cloud of artillery.
Since Putin is setting up his invasion force for the Baltics, UA’s fronts are a bit low priority now, both in terms of equipment and soldiers.
Many brigades are in urgent need of maintenance, and even with everything drivable – imagine how it will look all month with the mud 😀
For those who still haven’t understood this – Ukraine began offensive operations on February 6, 2025.
They have broken the back of the RU Pokrovsk offensive, conducted offensive operations in Kursk, regained terrain in Toretsk, and attacked on several other fronts.
As soon as the mud comes, RU maintenance drops to 0 for a month, and they will be completely soaked – there is your first opening.
Since we went through this in 2023, we know that sometime in April, 6-16 April, the ground is passable again and this time Ukraine will strike with full force.
Then we have the whole summer and most of the autumn before RU gets a little respite due to the mud again.
But it’s not safe everywhere at the same time and not everywhere, in northern Luhansk, it’s mostly sandy soils that don’t collapse, we have learned.
2025 is the year when Russia will learn that they have stirred up the wrong hornet’s nest – wait and see.
If the EU has even half a brain, we will start mobilizing large forces in Finland, Poland, and the Baltics during the summer to begin tying up RU troops. We communicate clearly with China that it is for defense, but RU can’t take any chances, can they?
The grand campaign plan that you all have probably read has not changed.
-they carried out the invasion of Russia.
-Belarus will become messy very soon (also tying up RU troops).
-it will be messy in Russia now that the USA is completely sidelined and their lousy tactics are obsolete.
Here you have Rubio confirming it, by the way, the USA’s idiotic tactics.
-Dnepr will become a hornet’s nest of amphibious combat.
-UA continues to push towards the eastern fronts where Pokrovsk was the flytrap of the year, just like Bakhmut was in 2023 before that year’s offensive.
Ukraine wanted to settle this in 2022 but couldn’t, they tried to settle this in 2023 but the USA prevented it again by forcing the EU to cut off all support.
2024 was an absolute ordeal where the USA was probably quite annoying behind closed doors, as in the summer of 2024, did the deliveries stop again, if I remember correctly?
Now in 2025, Ukraine has received the equipment, the ammunition, they have fought RU indirect capabilities and logistics, and the only thing missing is their offensive.
Which they are not communicating to anyone this time except to me through Budanov.
And above all, Ukraine no longer has any red cards – the EU knows that this will be our war no later than September this year, so now all rules of engagement and red cards are torn apart.
Do you remember the nonsense about Russia being a threat to us in “2 to 5 years”?
Russia is not a threat to the EU ever, we are already a military giant, but they can open a conflict with the Baltics because the EU will never invade Russia as a countermove – it’s risk-free for Putin.
The subversive activity is HUGE right now – we are de facto in a twilight state with RU already.
This is enough for a cold war in the EU, which means that we are closing in on ourselves and becoming dependent on US supplies.
So the USA may be thinking of restarting the Cold War because they gained something INCREDIBLE from it as a country at the expense of the EU, right – they are not our friends at all.
Then Trump still has a card to play – bring back troops/material from Europe and save huge amounts of money for the taxpayers.
The USA leaves NATO and saves a huge sum on that too.
It’s not unlikely that it’s a popular move that will be carried out.
But the EU doesn’t need the USA to handle Russia – the EU is a military giant.
A bit simplified, the USA has fallen, and the EU and China will increase at their expense.
Ukraine has a bright future, and rarely do you see a country play their cards so well – those cards that Trump claimed Ukraine didn’t have 😁
We hope that these world-leading analyses are read by those in power so that the right decisions are finally made 😀
What has been written in this post has been drummed in like a mantra since 2022, but I understand that everything has its time no matter how difficult it is, and I have also understood the inertia in the West. Which ultimately made me understand the lead-up to WW2.
We have witnessed the prelude to our era’s global conflict from the front row.
I will return in the next post regarding whether this is good for the USA or not – the basic premise is that what Trump is doing benefits the USA anyway, for the group trying to find any logic other than Trump serving Putin’s interests.
Now we have probably reached the point where we need to streamline this a bit – for two weeks, apparently, I am alone on the project, and then there will be a lot with the procurement, and after that, it will start to increase, so it has to be from now on.
-will not (have time to) comment on any social media at all really, the comment section, Bluesky, and Substack.
-I suggest that you subscribe to Substack so you get the email that a new post is published – then you know that it is also available on the website to go there and comment under.
-MXT will likely, on days when no post is published, run the loss list to start up the comment section, if you are kind to him and do not point out that he has been too pro-Trump.
-I recommend everyone who still comments on Bluesky and Substack to start commenting on johanno1.se instead – there is quite a bit of communication between those who write, but on both Substack and Bluesky, it’s just me who answers, and that’s over now. Also, your comments are not saved in the historical archive johanno1.se will become – a world-leading historical archive.
-there will be fewer links and images in the posts because these surprisingly take a lot of time – the text is the simple part. Therefore, there will be fewer sources, but if you follow what’s happening, you have still seen the information. I build the posts around the information that comes but simply skip the source references.
If you liked the post, please share it in your channels,
If you want a fun comment section that is really starting to pick up steam and is no longer just me talking it up on Bluesky, and then sitting there all alone and posting drunkenly – johanno1.se. There are actually hundreds of comments there daily 😲
On Substack, feel free to become paying subscribers, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, seeing all the work put into this and taking the step to subscribe 👍
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“Sources in the White House: Trump pauses all military aid to Ukraine”
“US President Donald Trump orders a pause on all military aid to Ukraine. This is reported by high-ranking officials within the White House to a number of media outlets, including AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters.”
“- President Trump is clear that he is focused on peace, and that must also be the focus of our partners.”
https://omni.se/uppgifter-donald-trump-pausar-allt-militart-stod-till-ukraina/a/mPnW2q
Democratic members of Congress react with dismay to the news that Donald Trump is pausing military aid to Ukraine, reports AP.
The decision is “reckless, indefensible, and a direct threat to our national security,” says Pennsylvania representative Dan Boyle.
– This aid was approved by both parties in Congress, both Republicans and Democrats, as a recognition that Ukraine stands for democracy and is fighting against Putin’s aggression.
“The White House wants Zelensky to confirm collapsed relationship”
“After the decision to pause support to Ukraine, the White House is seeking confirmation from President Zelensky that the relationship between the countries has collapsed. Several officials tell CNN.”
“This could be in the form of a public apology, after which discussions about a mineral deal and continued support can be resumed, according to the sources.”
Trams at preschool level
Russian losses 2025-03-04
1340 KWIA
3 Tanks
8 APVs (Armored Personnel Vehicles)
45 Artillery systems
1 Anti-Aircraft system
86 UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles)
101 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3ljjr3n5db224
Losses in the #Pokrovsk sector according to yesterday’s evening report.
Update as of 10:00 PM 03.03.2025 on the Russian invasion.
241 KWIA
3 Artillery systems (+4 damaged)
1 EW unit
18 vehicles (+2 damaged)
3 motorcycles
5 UAV control points
1 ground drone (UGV)
2 communication antennas
3 satellite antennas (Starlink?)
1 MTLB tractor
The enemy is suffering significant losses – today Ukrainian forces have neutralized 241 occupiers in the #Pokrovsk sector, 132 of them irreversibly. In addition, six UAV control points, 18 vehicles, three motorcycles, three cannons, five UAV control antennas, one electronic warfare unit, one ground drone, two communication antennas, and three satellite terminals were destroyed, along with an MTLB tractor. Four cannons and two vehicles were seriously damaged.
Comment Pokrovsk losses.
Looking at the number of attacks in the sector (21/101 = 1/5, 20%), the loss figures (as of 22:00 yesterday) seem to match:
KWIA 241/1340=18%
Vehicles 18/101=18%
((Artillery including injured(?): 7/45 =16%))
Then it diverges for other types. Could indicate more infantry waves than mechanized.
👍
Violent losses, like a Russian Verdun 😳
“Tonight, Donald Trump will deliver his first speech to Congress since being re-elected. The theme will be ‘the renewed American dream,’ expanded power for the president, and a new world order, as reported by Fox News.”
“The speech will address four areas: the administration’s work during the first six weeks, the economy, pushing for new funds for border security through Congress, and his plan for ‘peace on earth.'”
Source: https://omni.se/trump-ska-halla-tal-om-utokad-presidentmakt-och-en-ny-varldsordning/a/Gy2Xj9
China enters and secures a mineral deal, maybe with Europe involved. Fuck Putin and fuck the USA!
Can you believe that Trump still doesn’t understand that the retaliatory tariffs will hit them themselves, doubling in their export companies!
Yes, it’s terrible that the support for UA has been paused, but it probably happened under Biden as well, and Europe stepped up and sent more.
Let the idiot in the Dirty House embarrass himself, it will lead to a total crash of their own economy and we are probably seeing the beginning of a civil war in the USA. Maybe not with weapons but with a lot of tough rhetoric and actions from various states.
Why so quiet from the Dems.?
Another thing, Swedish media is just as fixated on Trump as last time, missing everything that is simmering around in the USA. Withdrawn subsidies for medicines, withdrawn support for veterans, etc.
Look at other media outlets and see what’s happening, the lid is about to blow, it’s just a matter of time.
Exciting reading. Reached halfway shortly before China.
Is like a Lord of the Rings book
Thank you Johanno1, great reading with my coffee as usual :). Yes, an epic sh*tshow now from the muppet show in the oval room. I think the purpose is to avoid at all costs the US signing any deal with Ukraine and make it look like it’s Ukraine’s fault.
Starmer and other leaders have probably already figured out that Trump will say no, so I see Starmer’s proposal as diplomatic measures to clearly show that the Trump administration wants nothing other than for Ukraine to become Russian.
Regarding the support, I believe the Trump regime will pause all support, even what has already been paid for and is just about to be delivered. Then it won’t hold up in court but it will delay the process.
I also think they will lift the sanctions now. It will prolong the war but it won’t save the Moscow empire’s economy. It would require American Marshall Plan aid and I wonder how that would be received in the households (when they complain about the support to Ukraine, which would seem abysmally small in comparison).
I wouldn’t be surprised either if Trump now announces that the US is leaving NATO. That would be a political atom bomb of course but fully reasonable given the situation for the Moscow empire.
Now Congress must approve this according to a fairly new law that Rubio was one of the initiators of according to some sources.
There might be a fight there and possibly Trump hesitates for that reason. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens. I think that’s the plan because Hegseth instructed the American cyber forces last week to stop working against Russia.
Leave NATO and stop spying on Russia. The GOP might have to skip their morning coffee if the reputation of the US is to be salvaged.
Sounds reasonable and yes, Trump can put the brakes on a lot of things even if he changes his mind later.
“Australia is open to sending peacekeeping soldiers to Ukraine as part of an international force, says Prime Minister Anthony Albanese according to The Guardian.”
“Australia is standing up for Ukraine’s right to defend its sovereignty, and does not want to see Putin’s imperialistic ambitions rewarded, Albanese adds.”
https://omni.se/australien-oppnar-for-soldater-till-ukraina/a/5EQeMO
Pine Gap, located in Australia, is one of the USA’s most important bases for signals intelligence. Something to consider if the USA starts meddling with Starlink.
Update from 08:00 04.03.2025 on the Russian invasion
A total of 101 combat actions were registered during the past day.
#Kharkiv 2
#Kupyansk 2
#Lyman 13💥
#Siverskyi 1
#Kramatorsk 3
#Toretsk 13💥
#Pokrovsk 21💥
#Novopavlivka 7
#Huliaipil 1
#Orikhiv 4
#Kursk 29💥💥
Yesterday, the enemy 🇷🇺 carried out 56 air strikes against Ukrainian 🇺🇦 positions and populated areas, released 104 glide bombs, and used 2,638 kamikaze drones. In addition, more than 5,100 attacks were conducted, including 186 from Stalin organs (MLRS).
Over the past day, the defense forces’ 🇺🇦 aviation, missile forces, and artillery hit 14 areas with a concentration of personnel and equipment, an artillery system, and two hostile checkpoints.
In the Kharkiv sector, our troops repelled two hostile attacks on Bochkove and Krasniy Pershyi.
In the Kupyansk sector, two attacks by occupiers took place yesterday. Defense forces repelled assaults near Zahryzove and Ivanivka.
The enemy attacked in the Lyman sector 13 times. They attempted to advance near Novolyubivka, Ivanivka, and Yampolivka.
In the Siverskyi sector, the enemy attacked our defenders’ positions once near Bilohorivka.
In the Kramatorsk sector, three firefights were recorded in the Chasovyi Yar area and towards Stupochky and Predtechyne.
In the Toretsk sector, the enemy carried out 13 attacks in the areas of Krymske and Toretsk.
In the Pokrovsk sector, our defenders stopped 21 attacks and offensive actions from the aggressor in the areas of Oleksandropil, Lysivka, Promin, Dachanske, Preobrazhenka, Kotlyne, Ulakly, and Andriivka.
In the Novopavlivka sector, occupiers attacked our troops’ positions seven times and attempted to break through towards Kostiantynopol, Burlatske, and Skudne.
In the Huliaipil sector, the intruders tried to launch an offensive towards Pryvilne.
In the Orikhiv sector, our troops repelled four hostile attacks towards Stepove and near Nesterianka.
In the operational area in the Kursk region, units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces repelled 29 attacks from Russian attackers in the past day. Additionally, the enemy carried out 13 air strikes with 17 guided bombs and 308 artillery attacks on Ukrainian troops’ positions and locations, including 17 from multiple rocket launchers.
Thank you for the report 205
It is now time for Europe to set red lines for Russia. The first signal to Putrump that the nonsense time is over and that we are ready to step up.
Or continue grinding away a la Biden (the non-escalation method), with continued arms supply? Perhaps initiate surveillance of Ukrainian airspace (no-fly zone* a la Libya). Border surveillance of Belarus to free up Ukrainian troops.
Not saying it’s the right way, but if Russia is so pressured that they gasp for a ceasefire, then the strategy works. Can also be combined with other types of efforts if Ukraine initiates a counteroffensive.
* including shooting down missiles
Yes, that’s what Cornu listed. Macron talked about a similar workshop in the form of providing training efforts in western Ukraine, as well as rushing in if any new city is threatened. There is still a phase of denial regarding the USA, but I hope that plans have been made for different scenarios. One cannot be completely dependent on Trump’s/Elon’s morning or nighttime moods for deliveries and security. I would like to see Macron throw down the gauntlet already and secure the border with Belarus, build defenses, provide training, all under protection against robots of course, more air defense comes in and why not some Rafale over western Ukraine. A red line at the Dnieper where everything is shot down or similar.
As the second best alternative, but hopefully a parallel event to FR’s entry on the ground: All weapon packages from the EU or “Europe plus the coalition” to Ukraine and for their own rearmament. Hundreds of billions of euros.
Stop waiting for the USA now and move from talk to action this week, EU! The USA must be counted out and it has now been shown how quickly the rug can be pulled out from under us. This also applies to NATO members in the future. Trump/Musk might as well wake up one morning and be upset that we are not groveling on the ground and withdraw all support and cooperation with us.
Yes, I must say. What a change of course from Trump and the boys – only the cowboy hats are missing. Their worldview seems cowboy-like as well. Yes, more or less incomprehensible. Why take Putin’s side? Does anyone understand? Where did the concept of “the free world” go? And everything that comes with it. Parliamentarism and democratic elections. And so on, and so forth. The Trump gang will have to back down from these absurdities. The question is how many weeks it will take. Domestically, I’m with Trump – away with DEI and woke. But internationally, it’s a meltdown. The countries in the West must stick together.
Historically, hasn’t the GOP been the party most against the Soviet Union/Russia? It’s strange that they’ve made a 180-degree turn in just a few weeks. Shouldn’t the senators and congressmen still think the way they always have? Or is it the party whip that keeps everyone in check?
At the bottom of the well, Lindsey Graham finds a frozen lake named Cocytus, the ninth circle of hell.
Meanwhile, Reagan sits on a cloud, watching in astonishment at what is happening to the GOP.
Undoubtedly yes
After waking up to today’s morning news, this became a positive post, thank you Johan!
I really hope that you are right about China helping Ukraine! Then we can forget about “the shite house”! I also hope for Turkey, actually…
All European countries that do not share a border with Moscovy must send everything now! Then Ukraine will win this! And then we’ll take care of JEDI (!)
Слава Україні! 🇸🇪 🫶 🇺🇦 #RussiaIsATerroristState
President Erdogan always wants to be relevant in everything that happens and has no problem with making the rest of the world irritated by his behavior. Erdogan always wants what he considers good, at least for the Turks. His current problem is that his international influence is decreasing, and he risks ending up at the children’s table.
The PKK has been Erdogan’s external enemy for many years, and we should not overlook that Erdogan has been able to keep this low-intensity conflict going so that the country has an external threat around which the people can rally. He could have easily ended it several years ago but is doing so now. Turkey will have a large idle defense force that can now be used elsewhere.
Turkey has long been in negotiations with the EU regarding membership but has faced some resistance from, among others, Greece and France.
Since the war began, Erdogan has tried to take on a neutral role, but a week ago, he suggested that the EU should be involved in peace negotiations and that Ukraine should join NATO and the EU. Note well, the EU that Turkey wants to become a member of.
If Turkey takes an active role in defending Ukraine, it would be appreciated in the EU.
This would give Erdogan a seat at the big boys’ table, and the EU would be morally indebted to Turkey. This “debt” could, of course, be exchanged for resumed negotiations on EU membership.
I possibly believe that Erdogan is aiming for an agreement on visa-free travel with the EU. However, there is probably nothing indicating that Turkey seriously wants to become EU members, as that would mean goodnight for Erdogan’s authoritarian rule since Turkey would then need to implement a long list of adjustments. After the latest negotiations, there were 35 points that needed to be addressed, Turkey addressed one (1) point in eleven years, showing their priorities.
Then Erdogan came to power, and the number of points needing to be addressed has increased significantly. So it doesn’t seem like they want to become members.
Erdogan is over 70, how long can he endure. If a negotiation takes 10 years, he can retire with the EU’s guarantee of immunity. Better than hanging from a lamppost.
I don’t believe there is a genuine interest from Turkey’s side, it’s an urban middle class that looks towards Europe and they are in the minority. For them to suddenly hasten a process and at the same time dismantle their authoritarian tendencies and make peace with the great Satan (yes, Islam plays a prominent role in Turkey) has probably just been a dream. We try to be geopolitical friends anyway.
EU wants to invest nearly 9,000 billion in defense: “An era of rearmament”
https://omni.se/a/93LejM
Feels like a modest sum
Now it’s finally starting to look really good! 👍
Then maybe the EU will dare to dig deeper into the crates and send more weapons to Ukraine to compensate for some of the 40 billion in weapons that are now on hold because of Trump. When will Taurus be sent? Would be a really positive signal from Germany!
Yes, that is a component of throwing down the gauntlet, clearly. Just need to get past Orban and Fico. I can’t help but dream about the alternative scenario of Biden stepping down during the winter of 23-24 or earlier and Harris or another candidate winning. (possible that Harris would have had more time to succeed). At the same time, glove-throwing from Harris, Kallas, and Ursula would have been something!
But now we are where we are due to an octogenarian’s ego a year ago and the same man’s restraint and slowing down together with Sullivan of course. Just have to pin our hopes on Macron, Ursula, Kallas, and maybe Erdogan. Starmer is still in grave denial and believes that the USA can magically be restored to pre-2025.
This will be achieved by easing the EU’s strict budget rules so that member states do not risk fines and spending cuts for defense investments. The Commission also proposes a new EU fund where 150 billion euros are made available for defense loans.
So, the majority will be covered by individual countries, the last 150 billion can be obstructed by Orban/Pico. If Europe is serious, it might not be so fun to obstruct anymore.
The support for Ukraine can be organized outside the EU, then the UK, Norway, Canada, Australia, and maybe some other country can be included. But the EU providing the conditions for member countries to arm gives countries that want to support Ukraine the conditions to do so. So if Orban or Fico obstruct, they are obstructing European security, not Ukraine.
Don’t forget that Germany is replacing the eel with an iron chancellor.
I have long said that the EU can solve this on their own.
Calculated what they had and capacity for a year or two ago
Everything else is an influence operation
Yes, it’s just a matter of will.
Trump pauses all ongoing weapon deliveries. It’s weapons worth 40 billion that are not reaching Ukraine and that would likely secure our offensive. The EU has money, but not spare parts and weapons. According to Gregg, the planned offensive is being postponed! This is probably ordered by Putin, but what is the catch because this is still completely insane!
Then maybe the EU will dare to dig deeper into the crates and send more weapons to Ukraine to compensate for some of the 40 billion in weapons that are now on hold because of Trump. When will Taurus be sent? It would be a really positive signal from Germany!
The EU does not have Patriot missiles. If this does not happen, Ukraine has NO protection against ballistic missiles. Putin gets a free pass because the USA will not care and the EU does not care about Putin. Z MUST get Trump to reinstate the support!
What do you think Trump will come up with tonight?
I wonder if it might be about leaving NATO and increasing cooperation with Russia.
I think there might be a lot of talk. But no action. As the Chinese say: talk only, no action. Enough influential GOP members may have protested against the Putin-friendly line. Trump has to take a step back. Or am I wishful thinking?
He probably doesn’t know yet. It will probably be a completely improvised performance that can surprise everyone, including himself. But we can probably assume that it’s not good for anyone except possibly Putin, in the sense that it delays his inevitable downfall somewhat.
Yes, that would be a little typical of him! 😂
They join BRICSU, Russia joins NATO, to be honest, I have no idea.
As someone wrote, you don’t need to take drugs anymore, just listening to Trump’s statements is enough for it to feel unreal.
😂
Hegseth’s move last week to order the Pentagon to stop working against Russian hacker attacks is interesting.
I fear that Trump will announce the US withdrawal from NATO. It will then have to be dealt with by Congress, of course, but right now I don’t think the GOP will go against Trump.
Europe alone will need to focus on replacing the USA and also a lot of other things that need to be done when a former ally switches sides. Obviously, it complicates support for Ukraine as well, so there, comrade Putin gets additional help from his buddy in the crap circus.
We can handle it, but it will be extremely turbulent, and for Ukraine, it prolongs the war.
Of course, just my guesses, but that’s probably the situation we should prepare for. Then you can always be happy if it doesn’t happen.
Withdrawal from NATO: Not enough with all GOP members as a qualified majority in the chambers is required. It was among other things the change made before the election to “Trump-proof” it so that withdrawal could not easily occur.
In the Senate, two-thirds of the vote is required to leave. However, the president can issue a decree, and then it is unclear whether Congress can prevent Trump from leaving the NATO agreement – apparently legally a difficult terrain since the president has a lot of power over foreign policy.
It wasn’t created for someone like Trump
Or for a spoiled Europe 😂
I am on your line, that he wants to leave NATO (whether he will succeed is a different matter).
That we in Europe, after the speech, will live under the Russian nuclear umbrella…
At the end of today’s post, there is now a reader survey where you can vote on what you think Trump will deliver in his speech tonight.
2025 in technology this page ✊
Thank you Johan and Mats and everyone else for interesting reading!
Keep fighting!
👍
Fight ✊✊
We desk warriors are on duty 24/7.
One could just submit a proposal – I think there will be more than one
Otherwise, excellent initiative 👍
I actually thought about doing that first, but I guess you have to vote for what you believe most in will show up.
Yes, unfortunately 😳.
I might have included “all of the options”.
Today I am gloomy so yes, unfortunately it may be needed.
But tomorrow is a new day ✊🏻💪🏻!
Money rules. MIK won’t take the hit without a fight!
#fcktrmp calls #fckptn after MIK called Vance “dumbass Pisspott Couchfucker” 😜
#slavaukrainii
I think this video fits well in this context!
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxSP9DE-DpLCThT_5kyzv89kPtUTbdz822?si=tSUSSTh0bFLsWb7q
Trump has created problems for the Military-Industrial Complex (MIC), especially through his threat to cut off support to Ukraine. The Biden administration has secured the MIC’s revenues, and if Trump goes through with this, they will lose significant deals. Already, they are looking for weapons from sources other than the USA around the world! Therefore, it is likely that the MIC will actively (forcefully) oppose Trump, and just by calling Vance that, one realizes the power money holds in the USA! In summary, the MIC faces challenges due to Trump’s altered Ukraine policy, but it is likely that they will work actively to protect their interests and try to influence all decisions and politicians in favor of continued military support to Ukraine.
Now Trump has stepped into a hornet’s nest.
To provoke the MIC is probably not a good idea if you want to continue living politically.
Monster In Combat?
Military Industrial Complex?
Ledarsidorna.se on X
… “discontent with Canada’s implementation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea has been shown. The EU and the current @POTUS @realDonaldTrump agree on the right to free passage through the Northwest Passage.
Something that Canada does not want to agree to. And has never wanted to agree to.
It is the same convention that allows for free passage in the Øresund and the Belts as well as the Åland Strait.
But which Canada does not recognize the application of. Therein lies the conflict between Canada on one side and the USA and the EU on the other.”
It’s amazing how there’s often something interesting behind it when Trump starts trumpeting.
When it came to the Panama Canal, it was Chinese takeover of parts at the inlet and outlet that was behind it, despite the agreement containing a list of countries that are not allowed to have influence over the canal, where China is included.
Interesting N Eklund
Yes, the trumpet is trying, with its limited brain capacity, to tackle very complex issues in its infantile linear way. Is he really going to solve things that remain unresolved in the presidential backlog? It sometimes works with force, but what he misses is how the culture strikes back when it sees it! Putin has several hundred years of suppressed population that can be managed with violence, which is not the case in the USA! It will backfire significantly! Then we have the economy, where he linearly approaches it like the idiot he is, thinking that the pressure he puts on others will come back in the form of a severe recession when the market fails, affecting arms dealers and car dealers, etc… “Didn’t think about that”
I saw that Trump had complained that American banks are not allowed to do business in Canada while Canadian banks “flood the American market”.
There are rumors that the USA is approaching Iran and that Putin would mediate between the countries. I wonder if Trump has checked this with Saudi as well as the MIC, which sells a lot of weapons to the region.
Is this what Trump is going to announce in his speech?
At some point, the border of the kingdom’s security has been crossed.
Iran and Russia are on the verge of being completely crushed here, so why save them from decolonization and liberation?
Good question!
He wants to be friends with Moscow. Their friends are now his friends.
Haha linear trumps…trumps on the line (I have seen a caricature of Linus on the line)
Israel is the country that Trump has the best relationship with, and if he were to approach those who want to destroy Israel?
Then Trump would go from crazy to crazy and naive.
Mossad is quite well known for completely lacking humor and patience.
47th who have voted, is like a good GALLUP this, nicely done MXT 👍
We are now also relevant in referendums – taking the world by storm
Opinions differ, just like in the comment section 👍
🤣🤣
Just as it should be
Nice to see that “Just gibberish and hot air” has almost taken the lead! 🙂
But judging by the news reporting, that option was also the correct one.
Trump will demand Zelensky’s resignation and threaten to otherwise leave NATO, no equipment and what else – my guess.
This makes Zelensky an obstacle to peace.
But… Zelensky just came up with a very clever counteroffer.
Ceasefire on water and air so the ground offensive is not affected, but no more Russian factories.
Could complicate things for Trump 🤣
I previously wrote that we should introduce red lines against the Moscow state from Europe’s side. Russia is apparently planning major attacks on Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure. If that happens, Europe will intervene with its own aircraft to protect the infrastructure. Protection may also involve disabling ships or aircraft in an extension.
Here you can join if you have Facebook!
https://omni.se/a/lwWkAo
👍
Kenneth Gregg is as he is but his evening update is still interesting.
“Evening update for 04.03.2025. I have just come out of an online meeting with my good American journalist and military-industry friends as well as with certain Ukrainian military personnel. I received a lot of information and I can share a lot in this update but not everything.
Let me start with the situation in the White House and what really happened there. Our media has unilaterally embraced the conspiracy theory that everything was planned to deceive Zelensky. According to the information I received from my American friends, the case was not like that, but Trump’s ego took a hit from Zelensky’s statements. Even JD Vance’s ego took a blow, as they are not normally accustomed to direct pushback. Even the Pentagon had no prior information that weapon deliveries would be temporarily halted. The day after the disastrous meeting, the White House requested different scenarios for what would happen if deliveries were paused for 6 months. All analyses showed that it would not have any impact on Ukraine’s military strength during these 6 months.
It is also important to note that no weapons procurement agreements have been canceled, as all agreements with the American arms industry are still going strong.
All American “officials” working for HRU and SBU will continue to receive permission from the Trump administration to travel to Ukraine and carry out their missions. Satellite surveillance and data sharing continue uninterrupted, as well as technology transfer. Communication from the USA is currently taking place with Yermak and not with Zelensky, primarily the mineral issue is being resolved.
So what is Trump’s goal in all of this, apart from taking Zelensky as an insult. As my American friends emphasized; Trump has promised to end the war and save 8% of defense spending. Half of this will come from reduced support to Ukraine when we have a ceasefire. The other half will come from expenses in Europe. Since Zelensky has openly declared that for him only NATO membership or a total military victory matters, he poses an obstacle in Trump’s eyes. The Trump administration has given Zelensky two options; resign or fall in line. Trump’s talk about Zelensky as a dictator is based on his actions to silence the Ukrainian opposition in parliament (I have reported on this before and explained why I reacted strongly to this), including blocking Poroshenko and his party from participating in parliamentary work. According to information today, Zelensky will withdraw this decision to appease the Americans. The Pentagon is well aware of the Kremlin’s problems, they also know that Putin will not make peace because then it will be his downfall. They consider Putin as a Walking Death, BUT by forcing Zelensky into negotiations, they can better control the course of events. Since the Pentagon estimates that we can manage without problems for 6 months, they will then provide 6 months of supply with a delay.
I don’t think Zelensky will resign but we will definitely see a different Zelensky within a few weeks. America loves Zelensky but they want to be treated as a superpower, so even if Zelensky is right in most things, there will have to be some steps back in attitudes.
For me, the most important thing is that our upcoming offensive can be carried out according to plan and that we have the resources that the general staff has planned for, as well as access to the intelligence that the Yankees provide. We continue to procure the products needed for the frontline units in Pokrovsk, which are now on the zero line, as well as for the units being sent there in April. We will soon deliver certain types of drones to the unit I visited.
SLAVA UKRAINI”
If this is true, one should still have a bit of patience and try to see what lurks beneath Trump’s moves. But it still holds true that Sweden and Europe must arm themselves quickly, even though it should have been done yesterday!
Good – Gregg is absolutely at home here as a post when they arrive.
I don’t keep track of them myself, but the thread is welcome to post.
Upcoming offensive 🤩
But we already knew that, those of us who hang out here.
Of course Johan manages to find a positive angle on the recent chaos.
I have to stay here in the future. 😃
And be a little proud that I have managed to come to a similar conclusion as the world leader in at least one respect. I have also believed for a while now that Ukraine is turning to China.
Welcome Welcome – here we have fun
Finally, Germany is serious about the rearmament! This is massive!
“The debt limit law (Schuldenbremse) will be suspended for defense expenditure. The exact number has not been disclosed yet, but it will certainly be somewhere between 3% and 5% of GDP. The main point is that there is no limit and no fixed time-frame. All-in if necessary.”
The question is why the debt brake even needs to be adjusted to increase a basic task in the state? Defense, police, and schools are at the top of a state’s Maslow’s hierarchy, so the debt ceiling may need to be increased to afford art, public transport, and knitting courses, simply put.
Unfortunately, no politician dares to tell this truth to the voters.
Yes, we are probably top-heavy when the pyramid should have the most weight in the base. At the same time, it’s a question of completely different costs now, we are aiming for sustainable levels in an area that has been allowed to shrink for a long time.
It’s been a while since one said hello to Germany when they violently went to war 😲
147 votes 😲
Damn, you can vote me into the municipal election so there will be more money for everyone.
You, who have a shifted circadian rhythm compared to us in Sweden, will probably be the first to know which (or which ones) alternative was correct.
Expecting that you have a review with accompanying analysis ready of Trump’s speech when we wake up tomorrow!👍
One misses semla down here in the Caribbean 😭
Just damn, knew there was something I forgot today!
I haven’t seen the speech but have read a bit about it.
It seems like nothing significant was presented at all, rather it seems to have been a boring speech where he praised himself.
Those who voted seem to live up to the idea of the “Wisdom of the crowd” as it mostly appears to have been “nonsense and hot air.”
Saw a summary, and yes hot air should be the right answer.
Rhetorically, it was a good speech, not particularly political but motivational.
Interesting to see the Democrats sitting down and keeping quiet about proposals like “solve problem X,” while the Republicans stood up and applauded.
Shouldn’t everyone be in favor of solving problem X? He didn’t even come up with a solution proposal.
The Democrats have received some criticism for not clearly enough engaging in the fight against Trump and the Republicans.
I guess that’s why they had decided to show their dissatisfaction with Trump and what he has accomplished so far. He probably would have needed to come up with something really, really good for them to show their approval.