Ukraine daily update March 7, 2025

The level of commentators in the thread is starting to get high, which puts some pressure on these posts not to be too broad, but below is a post about our readiness to die, which may be received differently depending on how much life one still has in them, perhaps?

A circulating rumor, RUMINT, which I guess comes from UA opposition candidates, that the Trump administration contacted them to explore if they wanted to join forces and get rid of Zelensky.

This fits in time because suddenly ALL opposition candidates came out and gave their unconditional support to Zelensky.

Anyone still believing that Trump has a good plan for Ukraine and the EU 🤬

Another point worth highlighting is that Trump mentioned Moldova in his speech to Congress yesterday, and not positively, but very negatively. A bit like if the Prime Minister’s speech at the opening of the parliament included some talk about Idaho and their governor’s election. Moldova, on the other hand, is of high interest to Russia, as they were supposed to take down the country already.

If anyone still believes that Trump is not influenced by Russia 🤬

Ukraine began offensive operations on February 6th, as you know if you have read the posts – it was announced on my Bluesky after a push from Budanov so that the frontline commanders would start attacking.

So far, things are going well almost everywhere – Kursk, Kupiansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

These are local offensives aimed at taking dominant terrain or gaining good UFAs, or perhaps reconnaissance battles?

RU defense is collapsing everywhere – in Kursk, there were two battalion attacks that cut through on paper 4-5 RU brigades in defense with competent task forces behind.

In Toretsk, it is Azov who is conducting an excellent battle in the town (the world’s best infantry someone!!!) and retakes the entire city within weeks – how about that 😲

In Pokrovsk, a number of UA brigades have carried out offensive operations at least in three locations, and RU is shaken.

As someone brilliantly wrote yesterday – the fastest way to end this war is probably if RU gives up and leaves Ukraine?

Considering how things are going for RU right now and that UA has started successful offensive operations, that option suddenly seems very achievable, provided Ukraine doesn’t run out of supplies.

Throughout an ENTIRE WAR, the USA has stopped Ukraine just when things started going well, all the time – pressures, halting of supplies, and then directly unfair methods like holding the mapping service for Storm Shadow hostage – or when they shut down Starlink – THROUGHOUT AN ENTIRE WAR, THEY HAVE DONE THIS.

Or stopped F-16s, Abrams, and Gripens. It’s not exactly the first time in this war that the USA says their weapons cannot be used against Russia, is it 🧐

So, Trump is doing exactly the same thing now as the USA has done throughout the war, but the difference is that he does everything openly in front of the media so we see it immediately, and then EU and Ukraine dare to oppose him. Why we didn’t oppose Biden back in 2022 is a question for historians to unravel – I guess that administration was simply smarter diplomatically and politically and used their leverage more smoothly.

So here we are again – Russia panicking, calling the USA, which is now Trump, and alternately threatening, begging, and painting doomsday scenarios.

Now these are rumors, but I roughly believe that the USA has now – stopped all supplies to Ukraine, even those in depots in Poland, stopped all information transfers to Ukraine, which apparently also makes it impossible to target THEIR weapons.

Not sure if this affects Storm Shadow, but perhaps F-16s, USA JDAMs, HIMARS, and Patriots?

But what we are seeing is another attempt to pull the rug out from under Ukraine when things start going well, that is undeniable.

Do you need more evidence that Trump is in no way better than Biden or the US administration? My opinion is that he is possibly even worse. However, the outcome doesn’t seem to be worse for the EU, and Ukraine has had enough. “The Art of the Deal” turned out to be a big elephant in a fragile glass house.

I see a lot of debaters to the right of center trying to nuance this now and then “don’t do Russia’s bidding, they want to divide the USA and the EU.”

“he only abuses me on a Friday when he’s been drinking and only if I answer back” – NO, there are situations where it’s time to push back, and that’s where we are now.

Why are we there now?

Ukraine is not infinitely patient, and as a country, a collapse will come suddenly, and when it does, they will be gone as a buffer against Russia for Europe, and a million unemployed soldiers will become Europe’s new unstoppable mafia.

The other thing is that by September 2025 at the latest, Russia will attack us in the EU in the Baltics PROVIDED they have the UA war under control.

Right now, they DO NOT have the UA war under control, and the EU seems to have understood this and started to take its damn responsibility.

This is not a drill, and September is not far away, it is now time to stand up!

Why do you think Sweden sent a battalion to the east and increased readiness?

Why do you think the whole of Europe has increased readiness?

Why do you think we are sending Gripens to Poland?

Why do you think exactly the whole of Europe is competing to support Ukraine the most right now?

We already know the answer because Ukraine has told us.

We are once again at the point where countries in the EU (maybe and probably not, but for the sake of argument…) will need to force their citizens to go to war and die.

You also have no choice – your representatives can now demand that you die.

All of a sudden, being violent, good at killing, able to withstand extreme pressure, and so on are what you want to see on your CV and not “social skills and ability to dialogue” or whatever it was they replaced the old mean policemen with, much to the joy of gang criminals.

As a soldier, you are expected to be better at killing than the enemy, and you are expected to be ready to die.

If you refuse to kill or choose to flee from certain death, you will face a penalty that in the past was execution by firing squad when desertion or “cowardice in battle” was something one was terrified of.

Often, it’s good to have strong cohesion in a country, to feel a sense of belonging and that the social bond is there.

We sometimes hear that Sweden was a “high-trust society,” for example – what does that mean?

The rearview mirror is always overly positive, and one has forgotten all the bad, but I believe that –

– a large part of our citizens did military service and considered it a privilege to defend the country of Sweden if needed. Even in the 90s when I did my military service as the last conscripted cohort or something before it became voluntary, we probably wouldn’t have hesitated for a second to go to war with Russia if necessary. In hindsight, our training was very tailored to how it would have actually looked, and I think we did well.

Anti-tank missiles, GRG, Strix, Strv-121/122, CV90, Gripen, submarines, and so on. The infantry bastards had a tendency to wait until we had passed by and then run up with anti-tank missiles to hit us from behind.

-As a citizen during the Cold War (and for a while after), one had a sense that no one would be allowed to attack Sweden. Then we had a loyalty to Finland.

Now it’s a bit divided –

The country of Sweden has politically handled this war excellently together with Denmark and Finland. We have committed to defending the Baltic states in the event of war to a large extent and take great responsibility for the Baltic Sea, which is the northern flank of the EU.

Not much more than our Swedish battalion guarding the EU’s eastern border right now (extremely simplified…).

Norway is a bit behind in support and should increase significantly – very much. The Nordic countries have solidly supported Ukraine and done more than many others, with Denmark at the forefront.

Compared to WW2 or our “neutrality” during the Cold War, it has been liberating to see this – it’s not often one can feel chest-swelling proud as a Swede, but that’s how it has been in this war.

Yes, in the 80s we practically had a war in our archipelago with the Soviet Union, and there was a very Russian-infiltrated politics culminating with the assassination of Olof Palme when he was considered a security risk for Sweden, which would justify a murder (in my opinion, we know what the Swedish legal system thinks). The fact is that the Baltic Sea region towards Sweden’s side was one of the hottest spots in the world at times, except for direct proxy wars.

The Soviet Union conducted active war preparations against Sweden, and the 80s were very turbulent, it was turbulent before and after as well but at a lower intensity. Sweden as a country needed to protect itself, and we had a “blue-brown” side in politics with the military, and then we had a counterbalance with S where they were heavily infiltrated, and V was completely on the Soviet side.

After the Palme assassination, two short-haired men knocked on Ingvar Carlsson’s bedroom window at Sagerska when he took office and waved friendly as he sat up in bed groggily – guess what message it sent to the prime minister about a month or two after the murder of the former prime minister and when S was absolutely terrified.

Jerry Martinger, a moderate local politician, thought he had found some irregularities regarding the Palme assassination that he wanted to raise and was absolutely destroyed by “the public”. All sorts of authorities stabbed him in the back one by one until he, who had been a happily married lawyer living in Täby with a brilliant career in the Moderate Party locally, ended up divorced, unemployable, and with no assets at the Enforcement Authority.

This is not something we want to return to at all, but we should probably stop being naive when it comes to Russian influence today.

Swedish Peace recently stated that Russia must be allowed to keep some of the annexed territories for us to have peace – it’s absolutely infuriating to read that from a peace organization before understanding that they are a party in the conflict and on Russia’s side 🤬

This is EXACTLY the line Trump is pushing, and it comes from the Russian security service.

The shutdown of Europe’s nuclear and coal power plants while we bought Russian gas that Greenpeace marketed as “clean energy gas” or whatever it was called is another highlight that was risky from a security policy perspective.

Environmental movements wanting to shut down military training grounds for a few frogs, remove Swedish cement production, and Russia needing to build RO-RO ports on Gotland are other things that are amusing. Or Russian “tourists” buying up plots or homes near our and Finland’s airbases, naval bases, and army bases. Or the Russian embassy in Stockholm potentially being able to hide a mechanized Russian battalion if they managed to figure out how to get it in.

Russia believed that the EU would be pacified by the energy weapon, and during the winter periods of 2022-2023, the number of technical failures in our nuclear power plants in the EU was at an enormous level. This is never acknowledged, but France had issues with cooling water, and we had technicians who forgot wrenches, right?

What wouldn’t hurt right now is a bit of political cohesion, which apart from around Ukraine and defense issues, is something our politicians have handled terribly. The opposition constantly screams for resignations, and the Moderates continue to do their hit-jobs for the business community.

However, the UA war has been handled EXCELLENTLY, 10/10.

-My pet peeve is still that if you accuse citizens long enough of not having culture, being unwanted, and at least being hateful, the willingness to die for the country will be less. I have received a tremendous amount of unjustified criticism for such a simple discussion that apparently is still a taboo.

Our military training should now focus on teaching our sons and daughters to kill other people in the most efficient way – that’s what our conscription aims for – to become good at killing other people.

Recruitment campaigns should revolve around that and not that one should have a good time and get some fresh air. You get that too, but only after you have killed other people.

Our soldiers should feel that they are a respected group in society – as a country, we should uplift them and what they do. The battalion stationed in eastern Baltic states is not praised much, but by September at the latest, they will be overrun if they are in the wrong place and Russia has control over the war in Ukraine (which they don’t have today).

In Israel, serving in the paratroopers is as prestigious in the job market as having completed a long education at Harvard, for example.

The willingness to defend largely comes from feeling a desire to protect one’s country, fellow human beings, family, and so on – NOT necessarily in that order.

Today in society, I can feel that we don’t have this in the same way as before, and you don’t get any prizes for guessing that Russia has worked actively to erode the social fabric, even though all attempts to discuss this are attacked quite harshly.

How many radical Islamists do you think are willing to die to save a wounded Salwan Momika twenty meters ahead (who is indeed murdered but for the sake of discussion…) – and how many electricity customers do you think are willing to defend a Green Party member?

Guess if when it’s time for war, the same things will be said again – just like Trump is doing now, our government will be accused of warmongering, and our soldiers of being bloodthirsty killers. Vietnam War anyone – Russian influence, the 60s.

That’s when it will show if ALL our citizens feel that we have COMMON values worth fighting for or not…

Will I, in the lower class, stand next to a Green Party member and be ready to forgive everything and let him be the decision-maker 😲

Throughout history, we have seen countries collapse in days and we have seen lions like the ones we now see in Ukraine, absolute lions. My guess is that it has a lot to do with how prepared a soldier is to fight for Ukraine, stopping Russian mechanized attack columns with Molotov cocktails and Kalashnikovs. (This particular combo is probably available in every criminal gang in Sweden so we are well prepared, actually 😀)

It is deeply ingrained in a country’s walls but it is not something to be taken for granted because it is something that a country and its representatives DESERVE, not something that can be demanded after mismanaging everything for a long time.

Exactly where we stand in this willingness to fight for one’s country in different countries in Europe is difficult to know, but a wild guess is that we were lucky that Russia first targeted Ukraine – absolutely lucky.

Last time it happened in 1939 – 1940, it didn’t go so well, but Ukraine is the one with poor soldiers and apparently we in the West are light years ahead according to all the discussions we’ve had on the subject.

So how will a Russian attack in September 2025 look (assuming they have the situation in Ukraine under control – this is crucial!)?

Many still believe that the Russian attack on Ukraine was terrible and doomed to fail, but they are greatly mistaken. Yes, I may have mocked them completely, but I do it with a purpose 😀

Russia had tied up the UA army in the east and during a military exercise, they built up along the borders with Ukraine. They convinced the West and Zelensky that mobilization would be seen as a provocation and lead to war, and they had bribed anyone they could reach.

Macron and Germany (not sure if it was Scholz or someone else who made the statement) guaranteed Ukraine that Russia would not attack – so deceived, or bought, they were.

A popular rumor is that the FSB stole most of the bribes that were never paid out, true or false is the question.

At the Southern front, you saw what happened when bribes were paid and the Russian spearhead rolled over Khakovka and Antonovsky around lunchtime on the day of the attack in a cloud of ahkp.

Even though there were scattered with bridges and channeling terrain as minefields with accompanying group-sized fire ambushes that should have been effective roadblocks.

Russia carried out a devastating missile rain and the artillery fire was obscene.

For example, all of Ukraine’s refineries were knocked out early in the war and the artillery fire was initially far beyond what UA could handle – 50,000 to 60,000 shells/day. We saw films where the defense endured days of constant artillery fire and one is quite exhausted after that unless buried alive.

Russian attack aircraft and ahkp were like swarms of locusts.

The airborne assault on Hostomel was significant and a dozen or so IL76s with battalions from the 76th GAAD from Pskov were in the air but had to turn back – do you think they shot down something/someone?

The runway was never secured as the airport was retaken by a mosaic of different soldiers and civilians who simply formed up and started fighting against the best Russia had.

1500 SOF had infiltrated Kiev and they dropped paratroopers over the city.

The citizens simply took up arms and as soon as a group armed themselves at the barracks, the bus went to the front lines and up to 90% died in defense at various points with channeling terrain – the buses were a death sentence and those who boarded them knew it.

The attack columns towards Kiev did not encounter much resistance BUT Putin had waited for the Olympics to end so the mud made them only able to travel on the main roads.

They started, if I understand correctly, driving off-road but then had to redirect onto the roads where Ukraine could cut the head and then they were stuck in the world’s biggest traffic jam – and then everything played out, they had sold fuel for alcohol, it was cold and wet, they couldn’t make decisions themselves, and so on.

Everything was preceded by sabotage and high-value targets were eliminated early on as many traitors in large numbers had sent the coordinates.

And not to forget amphibious warfare with landings where, however, Odessa was thwarted.

Russian artillery had information superiority and so on for quite a while and Russian observation drones were everywhere all the time.

It was Ukrainian marksmen who died in their foxholes that stopped everything.

Expect the same towards the Baltics –

-wave of sabotage in the weeks leading up throughout the EU

-demonstrations against war throughout the EU where peace movements, Palestinian movements, environmental movements, stop the minks, and save the wetlands join forces for peace in our time.

-political deadlock of Putin-controlled parties – anything that doesn’t need to be voted on in parliament goes through in different EU countries and to send troops to the Baltics, a vote must be taken.

-disinformation (like what we are hearing now from Trump) from various representatives and well-known individuals.

-blocks in the EU on anything that is not a simple majority.

-significant troop build-up of secondary units and/or NK or Chinese forces towards Finland and Poland to tie up troops – Poland states that they need their defense forces for national defense and Finland does the same.

-Russian Baltic Fleet fully deployed in the Baltic Sea – landing ships cruising along the territorial waters of all countries with water contact.

-Northern Fleet fully deployed and cruising around Norway.

-Putin et al. making promises of peace interspersed with threats and stating that China is the real threat, not them. In the end, no one can keep track of what day of the week it is.

-Trump accuses the EU of escalating everything and wanting war and that Russia wants to save the children.

-electric infrastructure knocked out, railways knocked out, explosions of weapon depots, and so on.

-large number of SOF conducting fire ambushes against the forces in the Baltics, artillery, and LV for example.

-also attacks against key personnel such as pilots, air traffic controllers, senior officers, and high-ranking politicians – here RU must choose their targets carefully but at least not the Baltics.

-a massive missile rain against the Baltics the night before the attack begins.

-frontline artillery starting during the night.

-advancing at dawn with 150,000 RU troops formed in mechanized units trained by veterans from the war.

-a drone cloud that is inferior to Ukraine’s but trying to copy it.

-they only have, at worst, thousands at the attack points who are bombed with FAB and drones and who have not yet experienced the war in 2025 – like our Swedish battalion, for example.

The purpose is to delay the Western advance in the Baltics so Putin succeeds in conquering NATO territory and then goes on the defensive – then over to NATO. I haven’t checked exactly which terrain they take, but if they can, they want to go on the defensive behind waterways, for example.

NATO must then decide if we should sacrifice our sons and daughters to RETAKE territory in eastern Baltics.

Now begins an ENORMOUS subversive operation with the aim of breaking NATO and the EU, and the worst thing that can happen to Putin is that he has to retreat to Russia again because the West will NEVER invade Russia.

The upside is enormous, NATO falls, the EU falls, countries are tied to Russia, and so on endlessly all the way to China and the other rogue states sitting on the fence, still in doubt.

The downside is that he loses his two army corps and has to retreat to Russia.

Does the EU have a huge stockpile of robots today to retaliate with that would cause more pain than Ukraine’s strategic drone warfare?

This assuming that Ukraine is manageable for Putin – which Trump is working hard to make happen, so this is the reality by September 2025 at the latest.

This is not a drill, and we have a weakened battalion in the forests of eastern Baltics that may have to take the full hit in September.

Damnark has now warned that we only have months left.

If you read this correctly, you understand just like I do that Putin can absolutely challenge NATO.

That he could invade Europe deeply is of course unreasonable – he CANNOT do that.

But if he manages to create chaos in NATO and the EU, more opportunities will arise, and at worst, he will have won over Serbia, Moldova, Hungary, and Slovakia completely on his side, and more countries choose to remain passive.

Romania and Bulgaria are not our most stable democracies, for example.

I thought this would come as early as November, but I guess that Kursk completely disrupted Putin’s schedule here and that he had to heavily rely on his strategic reserves thanks to Ukraine.

What Ukraine does for us can never be overstated.

If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels,

If you want a fun comment section that is really picking up steam and is no longer just me talking it up on Bluesky – johanno1.se.

I recommend everyone who still comments on Substack or Bluesky to switch over to that thread instead – then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you.

On Substack, you are very welcome to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe 👍

ohanno1.se

substack.com/@johanno1

https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social

Then there are Swedish rescuers, the ones I have been in contact with who work quietly and deliver supplies to Ukraine. You don’t see them constantly on social media because they are instead working to support Ukraine.

Start