Ukraine daily update November 12, 2025

I have left the posts unlocked for a while and a paid subscription was added on Substack, which was fantastic, so I would like to remind everyone who reads the posts daily (or when they are posted…) that a paid subscription on Substack is valuable to me.

Now the map warriors (osints) are a bit more restrained with everything after the recent weeks’ discussions and criticism, so it will probably be even harder to predict things in the future, sad.

I read more and more critical osints often in Ukrainian, which I have to translate, so there is always an ongoing debate.

I was one of those who believed that the doomers like Defmon and Rob Lee, who were very pessimistic about Bakhmut, were completely wrong and chose to interpret everything positively for the greater good in 2023 because Ukraine was still on an upward trend and Western support was at its weakest.

In 2022 and 2023, we didn’t have the maps in the same way, and the sources I used back then have been replaced, but I used to look at actions and then weigh sources and extrapolate from that – for example, I was satisfied with Lysychansk.

Today in 2025, I stick to a group of osints, Deepstate, and Project Owl, all of whom are pro-Ukrainian, and if anything is considered to over-report positively for Ukraine, but I can live with that.

Since the fall of 2023, RU has been carrying out a sustained offensive, and according to all sources, they still have gas, even if UA themselves usually write about it.

UA offensives have been few, except for Kursk, which that bastard Trump managed to sabotage as a political bargaining chip, and some local counteroffensives to resolve tricky situations.

I had forgotten in my rants that Trump never mentioned Kursk at all before his negotiators were to land in Moscow.

And Putin refused to meet the negotiators if Ukraine did not leave Kursk.

So Ukraine left Kursk with some lame excuse days before the meeting.

Very low of Trump, despicable.

The situation is constantly changing with attacks and counterattacks, but one should be able to agree on something to begin with.

-the situation in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk was and is very tense, and in Pokrovsk, Ukraine conducted an airborne landing with its most valuable units. These are units that you prefer not to expose, but now they did it in a drone-saturated battle in the village, which is probably the biggest trap that can be encountered in a war, Lex Stalingrad.

RU is absolutely unleashing FAB bombs, which now cost up to 1500kr and more, sometimes thermobaric, with a range of up to 200km. These bombs are simply deadly, as your reinforced defense or bunker becomes your grave, and RU drops several thousand per month.

-Ukraine is retreating everywhere, even though there is a heated debate about the gray zone and how it should be interpreted – as far as I know, no one questions the “red zone,” which should indicate that the terrain is fortified by RU on the Deepstate map?

Pokrovsk

October 15

November 10

Huliaipole

October 1

November 10

We pro-Ukrainians tend to see everything in light blue and yellow with soothing elevator music in the background – while RU is losing +1000 per day, it’s just “a few hundred in Pokrovsk,” so they don’t have control over the area.

And while RU has between 27,000 attacking and up to 110,000 in the larger Pokrovsk area, it’s just “a few patrols in the gray zone.”

Russia is on the verge of collapse while Ukraine will be able to hold out indefinitely.

Many times we have seen UA do the best they can and embellish things a bit – Vuhledar was defended by a brigade that had 300 soldiers but held an area that was large even for a brigade. They received no reserves, about 30 per month, and in the end, the Russians went straight through them.

We found out about this because the brigade chose to speak out in the media to avoid being accused of cowardice and desertion.

Before that, I didn’t understand how bad the personnel supply situation was, and in the summer of 2024, Zelensky also guaranteed that everything had been resolved – I had previously chosen to listen to official UA sources and considered the alarms to be anecdotal.

A unit in battle always has an apocalyptic view of the situation.

The reason I believe it is now time to start calling a spade a spade is that Europe must start making tough decisions here – I don’t think time is on our side.

What is Europe’s plan?

I remember the “coalition of the willing” that seems to have completely fizzled out, or do you hear anything about it?

This is how Project Owl has marked up Pokrovsk, and what makes them attractive are the dated red markers confirming the positions of RU groups on that date.

It seems clear that RU has gained a foothold in all the settlements from Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad down to Kozatske, right?

RU continues with a constant swarm of gunfire, and UA carries out counterattacks where they clear areas, but it gives an indication of how far RU has advanced, right?

And that’s where the discussion is now – how should one assess whether an area is conquered or not?

Is Project Owl purely pro-Russian nowadays, which immediately raises suspicion among all of us?

You remember the official report from UA last Friday that RU tried to infiltrate Hryshyne, and it was also in Hryshyne that GUR swept in and cleaned up Russian patrols that had grouped there earlier.

Project Owl hasn’t marked anything in Hryshyne at all, right – I interpret them as still being accurate and rather conservative when it comes to bad news for UA.

This is what I believe, and we will eventually see whose reporting best reflected the situation.

I guess one day UA will leave the Pokrovsk area if things go badly, and then all those who claimed the maps were wrong will justify it to themselves by saying they did it for a good cause and then move on.

But one of the most important things we have in this war is a group of volunteer osints who dedicate a significant portion of their time to trying to report the situation at the frontlines in the most honest way possible, and they have all suddenly felt unwanted by their own side. They are already hated by the Russian side, but now they have all turned against them all of a sudden.

So what will happen in the future?

Ukraine has already used up its strategic offensive reserve in Pokrovsk and intends to hold the area – that decision was made last week. There were already geotagged videos of UA groups starting to leave the threatened encirclement southeast of Myrnohrad, but they reopened the entrance and stabilized the situation.

The Russians, on their part, have entered a ceasefire and are now moving more troops forward. They still intend to conquer Pokrovsk, and I don’t know exactly where they are in the cycle, but there is no doubt that they will resume the attack.

Since you saw the topography curves last week, you know that to the west of Pokrovsk, it slopes downwards towards the Dnieper.

That is, RU has a height advantage in dominant terrain, somewhat like Popasna 2022 perhaps?

Now, the terrain is mostly up and down everywhere, so it is definitely not possible to say that they will break through a ridge and then the lowland will spread out to the west as with the Golan Heights, but in the immediate area, Pokrovsk is dominant.

I often discuss UA’s offensive capabilities, which they have, and if I were to guess, I think it looks something like this: the better units have had an easy time getting personnel and have also been prioritized with equipment.

GUR/SOF and elite units like Airmobile, Kraken, Azov, 12th NG, and others have had it easier, and at the other end are the forgotten Territorial Brigades that have to manage with voluntary deliveries and are critically low on personnel.

Militaryland is constantly updating, and one is struck by the extensive structure of the Ukrainian armed forces now – absolutely enormous.

And above all, the size of their special forces in all its forms – there are several different branches with 10,000 personnel each according to Militaryland’s unit map.

I’m not sure how it looks in Europe, but our SOF capabilities are measured in the hundreds, and the closest we come is probably the French Foreign Legion in terms of numbers, even though they don’t quite fit into this category.

Tens of thousands in SOF are an unparalleled capability, except perhaps in the USA. Additionally, they have combat experience and have undergone rapid training courses on the job.

Just like everywhere else, it is difficult to recruit personnel for the tip of the spear (apparently they have had a journey similar to that of a Swedish municipal company 😶), and the rear functions are expanding.

Zalizhny worked with trust, which reached a breaking point when he was accused of us in the West forcing Ukraine into a disastrous offensive and was dismissed in the autumn of 2023, at which point everything would be reformed.

Initially, many brigade commanders were sacked, and Sirsky inserted those he trusted instead, which was lukewarmly received by the army at large, who lost commanders they liked and got new commanders Sirsky liked.

Then they had to sort out the personnel supply, and now they have finally managed to organize themselves into army corps, mostly to prevent Sirsky’s micromanagement, which was at the battalion level. He divided brigades and, in the end, areas were defended by five battalions from different brigades where no one was in command, and no one knew who the higher commander was.

And above all, the higher commanders didn’t know who was defending the area or how they were faring.

The offensive reserve should then be the SOF units, the 4 Ranger Regiments, and then the prioritized army corps like the 3rd, 1st Azov, airborne, and the marines for the simple reason that personnel gravitate towards them and they have an easier time getting equipment because they are somewhat famous.

I think fewer of these units engage in combat other than as special forces or in cases of emergency, so having an offensive strategic reserve is indisputable. For example, in 2023, the marines fought throughout the entire offensive.

This is a very heavy armored fist with small sharp rivets that Putin is trying to dodge by rolling with his upper body; he is short and sometimes manages to slip underneath it.

Last Monday, we reported on Rob Lee’s information about over 20,000 AWOL in a month – these are not desertions from staff positions in Lviv or Kiev but from the fronts where the situation is critical.

Some years ago, we found out that since 80% of the wounded returned to duty, the brigades were critically understaffed, they fought for about six months without relief, and leaves were scarce, so frontline service was considered a guaranteed ticket to death or severe disability.

We can get an indication of how soldiers feel about their situation with Rob Lee’s figures, right?

Again, I guess that desertion is an unknown concept in the units in the strategic reserve mentioned above.

And they even have difficulty recruiting personnel for drone units now.

I have discussed most things over the years, but a major issue was that Europe never made voluntary service in Ukraine something prestigious – there were major campaigns in Europe where they paid recruitment bonuses, good salaries from the home country, and then veteran pensions after a year of service at the front.

Initially, there were quite a few in international units, but I guess there are significantly fewer today – old marines and SOF with “three tours in Iraq” have left because death is guaranteed, and they can’t handle it.

What remains are librarians, teachers, and engineers who have nowhere to flee.

Here too, I don’t understand what the hell Europe is up to, but that’s how it is.

Since 2022, with Biden and now Trump, the USA has been following a certain line, seeing Ukraine as a pawn and making a huge strategic mistake in trying to align Russia against China. In the worst case, they have pushed the country USA off the top of the pyramid. The betrayal debate will eventually be enormous, and conspiracy theories will abound, but it was probably as simple as this – they tried to align Russia against China but no longer had ground contact because they had it too good for too long.

Despite everything, Trump is driving the USA’s formal line together with something else, which we probably guess is to appease Putin for personal gain – money is not a bad guess, and to get help to stay at the top of the USA perhaps?

Europe hasn’t behaved much better, where countries like Germany were completely infiltrated to begin with, but we have slowly been straightening out the situation.

But we are still doing too little – far too little.

My suspicion is that Europe is gambling on the worst-case scenario being that Ukraine accepts a ceasefire – that seems to be what many believe.

“Russia will never attack us.”

Define “attack,” you damn peanuts, because you can’t even think that far ahead.

That’s where almost everyone goes wrong – we have already shown that unless it is an open invasion with maneuver brigades, we will not invoke Article 5; anything below that, Russia can have fun with without consequences.

And an Article 5 will never include invading Russia, so there is also a possibility that they are willing to risk it if they manage to pull ahead of us further in critical capabilities – the idea that Russia would attack Europe is seen as impossible, but it’s something Russia is just waiting for the right moment to do.

Or if it’s about unlocking Europe for the Chinese attack on Taiwan – then they will do it as a puzzle piece in a larger game despite all our analysts’ wild protests that they are not following the rules.

Ask a Pole or a Baltic person, or someone in Finland if Russia can attack Europe.

Donald Tusk, Trump’s Polish cousin, speaks out again – Putin’s subversive activities are life-threatening.

Poland, Ukraine, Finland, and the Baltic states are very familiar with all things Russian and are trying to get the rest of Europe on board, but progress is slow.

So what is moving in the right direction for us?

China has straightened out its production capacity and efficiency, and has done the same for Russia.

China has also sold 3 million Geran engines to Russia – a certain signal of how many RU intends to produce.

The more foolish ones I’ve listened to in recent years are all negative now but try to report as truthfully as possible, and now they have received so much criticism that they have started to hold back in their reporting.

There are few bright spots on the fronts, Trump has shattered Ukraine’s hope of help from the USA, and Europe does nothing but pour money into the arms industry and hopes it stops there.

I will return to the subversive activities, but all of Europe is starting to see a large group of professional protesters on its streets demonstrating against everything, mostly against the sitting government.

And the Islamists are advancing their positions – the classic attacks on Christmas markets upset many, for example, very simple medals for the unity within the GRU responsible for the influence operation.

You see domestic politics that are relevant now – but it affects everyone, and everyone is upset with everyone else.

If it becomes difficult to govern politically, it also becomes more difficult to support Ukraine or have a united front against Russia and China.

Countries experiencing domestic chaos also leave themselves vulnerable internationally – my favorite is still Kier Starmer, who has completely lost his way and is struggling not to be ousted by his own party.

Or that we should reduce carbon emissions by 90% in the midst of a raging war – do you think Rheinmetall will soon have to stop producing military equipment?

The biggest climate villain is probably the arms industry, those bastards 😡

As I said, the most crucial months of the war, but as the West begins to tire, it is high risk for the Ukrainian bowstring to break at any moment, and then we have no backup plan.

So far, it hasn’t happened, and Ukraine is clearly showing that they will fight, but the bad news continues –

Europe is increasingly relying on domestic production within Ukraine, which Russia has noticed, so this autumn’s robot rain is targeting that in addition to the energy infrastructure.

The USA has stopped deliveries due to the country’s shutdown.

And if you ask me, Europe is certainly facing major issues due to the lack of critical raw materials and products now, as China stands ready to control the tap with a broad Chinese grin.

You can be completely sure that there will be power outages in Europe this winter – risk-free for Russia, and how it will affect our industry will be interesting to see.

I assume that Ukraine also understands that their only way to break the deadlock is through an offensive, and we have described it in detail hundreds of times now, but there is still a risk that they will not achieve more than a tactical level.

What happens next if Russia can continue the war?

Because the only thing I am completely sure of is that Ukraine is Europe’s strongest defense force several times over, and they are currently retreating – there is no one in Europe who can put up an equivalent against Russia.

If Russia manages to achieve a ceasefire or, even better, create chaos in Ukraine leading to the country’s collapse, then every analyst’s assessment goes out the window because RU can release a million from the fronts in Ukraine.

In the worst case, they could persuade the UA defense force to infiltrate the wonderland of Europe to advance their careers, and even worse – if they manage to bring down Ukraine as a country and take over it politically, their border suddenly extends to western Ukraine.

Several years ago, I had to accept that Europe does not work with any risk list at all, and that we are cowardly and hesitant, but it will never cease to amaze me how we have managed to do nothing for almost four years.

We have even reneged on our promises to the Baltics that in the event of an increased threat, we would deploy our brigades in the Baltics. The threat level has risen to the point where many leaders in Europe are preparing for war, but the brigades are being held back.

It is confirmed that France and Germany have instructed hospitals to review their wartime organizations and be ready by the summer of 2026.

We certainly know how the Russian bastards will behave in the next area they conquer, and we also know that they intend to continue if they can.

It was only a few months ago that Merz, Macron, and Starmer were in meetings pledging full support for Ukraine, but that has completely faded – on this date 11/11/11, I cannot explain to you what Europe’s goals are in the Ukrainian war and what we are working towards, I cannot understand it.

11/11/11 and never again became 1939. But it started with “Anschluss” in Austria and “Sudetenland” in 1938, leading to Czechoslovakia and September 1, 1939.

Failing to do anything in 1938 led to one of our major global conflicts, and we are almost exactly following that sequence of events here.

We cannot handle Russia when China is behind them, and in reality, that is the major threat – so how will we manage to deal with China.

Since China managed to build up Russia’s arms industry, which is evident in Gerans and robots, no one can call me a liar anymore when I write that China’s own production is enormous.

And with AI drones with long range and hard-to-shoot-down robots in large quantities, which China and Russia now have, they can go a long way.

Ukraine is not in NATO and found itself invaded – and the West has been clear that we can help them help themselves.

Which other countries are not in NATO?

South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Thailand, India.

Africa is also not in NATO, nor is South America.

“Russia will never attack us,” say the peanuts, but they forget that there are dozens of countries that we consider ours and that have the same status as Ukraine, and we will help them help themselves.

And this is where it gets tricky because Venezuela is not in NATO, but the USA seems ready to go to war against them for very little.

At the same time, they were not prepared to defend Ukraine.

And they have promised to defend South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, which are not in NATO.

If China and Russia succeed in persuading the USA to turn inward, which they seem to be well on their way to doing, the playing field is wide open for them.

Not to mention all the former Soviet cities that became new countries when the Soviet Union fell – we will not lift a finger for them.

Europe is already “isolationist,” and the USA is well on its way, and then a whole string of countries will suddenly be in danger of being attacked.

We in Europe can continue to be peanuts but not produce anything, not defend those who want to belong to us, and then put a wet blanket over everything with a 90% reduction in emissions will not lead to a world I want to live in even if we manage the climate crisis.

But just when we thought we were winning the battle against the climate crisis, of course, a damn VOLCANO comes and destroys 20 years of emission reductions, the audacity 😡

When is the die cast for our time’s global conflict – the big million-dollar question that I’m trying to reason about.

One thing I know – when the die is cast, it’s too late to rewind the tape and then it becomes a self-reinforcing global conflict.

How will this end – probably with the West coming out as the winner but there will always be a large number of countries that do not feel like winners at all. I will come back to this in a separate post and show you which countries did not feel that May 1945 was their best month ever, or that a bright future was theirs.

But it was worth it for a world in peace – we had it very good during the Cold War if you weren’t occupied by the Soviet Union, had proxy wars in your country, had Mao as your leader, or lived under direct threat of war like us in Europe.

Fiji had it good.

Ukraine is the key to everything and if Russia manages to achieve a ceasefire or even worse – then the likelihood of us escalating globally is very high, at the same time as Europe will then exclaim “eternal peace” and confetti will rain down on the two marching companies that were tangible for the peace parade.

Does this sound familiar?