Ukraine attacked the oil refinery Bashneft-Novoyl during the night
The refinery is located in the Russian city of Ufa and was attacked with drones. The attack caused a fire, but the extent of the damage is not yet known. A residential building was also hit and caught fire. The refinery’s capacity is approximately 8.5MT/year, making it a fairly large refinery but not one of the largest. 8.5MT is roughly 3% of Russia’s total amount of oil refined per year. Omsk, which is the largest, processes around 21-22MT/year.
At the same time, I found information that the entire oil refinery center in Ufa handles close to 24MT/year. Therefore, there are more targets in the area that Ukraine can attack, and if they can temporarily stop most of the production in Ufa, it will have a significant impact.
A video showing the smoke cloud after the fire is available here, Kyiv Independent has an article here.
Russian losses in Ukraine
Russia has now surpassed 1.3 million injured and killed soldiers, and coincidentally today’s report includes a high 1300 KWIA.
- 1300 KWIA
- 2 Tanks
- 7 AFVs
- 59 Artillery systems
- 1 MLRS
- 2497 UAVs
- 195 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
Total Russian losses since the war started:
Russian activities
No surprises in the latest report on Russian activities in Ukraine. Slightly fewer clashes, high KAB and suicide drones. Artillery has increased slightly recently, with 3,889 attacks almost exactly at the current average. Just over a month ago, the average was around 3,000/day.
- 146 combat clashes
- 75 airstrikes
- 257 KAB
- 9,695 suicide drones
- 3,889 artillery attacks (including 77 from MLRS)
SLAVA UKRAINI
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What surprises me a little is the decreased number of attacks both localized and non-localized, but increased KWIA.
The relationship is usually the opposite.
Could it be that it is now about fewer but larger and/or more intense clashes?
Lately, the losses of armor have increased, not to any huge levels but still a slight rise since the bottom. Russian artillery losses as well. Could be a sign of increased intensity.
Of course, it doesn’t necessarily have to be the Russians who have increased the pressure, Ukraine could also be stepping up its defense.
Thank you for all the interesting posts 205!
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 2
S Slobozhansky 4
Kupyansk 12💥↗️
Lyman 6
Slovyansk 4
Kramatorsk 1
Kostjantynivka 17💥
Pokrovsk 31💥💥↘️
Oleksandrivskij 7
Huliaipole 20💥
Orikhivsk 0
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 2
Sum sectors 106↘️
Unlocalized 40↘️
Total 146↘️
👍
“❗️During the night, 🇺🇦Ukrainian military shot down 147 out of 172 🇷🇺Russian UAVs (drones).”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3miila3237s2f
🇨🇭🇺🇸 Switzerland hotar att ställa in sin order för det amerikanska Patriot-missilförsvaret och har redan stoppat betalningarna, eftersom USA skjutit upp de schweiziska leveranserna, – Breaking Defense. Det oroar sig för att tvisten om Patriot också kan ställa till det för dess mycket större köp av F-35-stridsflygplan och även andra amerikanska vapen.
“A Ukrainian drone strike hit the Bashneft refinery in Ufa, damaging the AVT-5 distillation unit, a critical component for oil processing and fuel production. The facility lies over 1300 km from Ukraine. The same unit was previously struck in October ’25.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3miind26dlc25
😢😡 “🙏 Two people injured in Russian attack on Chuhuiv! Apartments on the second, third and fourth floors of a four-story building caught fire, the area of the fire reached 300 sq. m. The explosion also damaged neighboring residential buildings and a gas network.” https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3miinl6x5r22l
There is no indication that Donald Trump is about to make a reality of the NATO exit he is considering. Several sources tell Politico.
The site has spoken with sources within NATO, the Pentagon, and Congress, all saying the same thing: the USA is not about to leave.
“There is no evidence that this is for real,” says one of the sources.
The fact that NATO countries did not help him attack Iran, he has portrayed as some kind of final straw and told The Telegraph on Wednesday that he is “more than considering” leaving.
However, Trump cannot do it on his own due to a law that his current Secretary of State Marco Rubio ensured was in place in 2023.
“I can promise this: the Senate will not vote to leave NATO and abandon our allies just because Trump is upset that they did not want to support his irresponsible war,” writes Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on X.
“Russian forces launched a sweeping overnight drone assault across Ukraine, sparking fires in multiple regions and leaving civilians dead and injured. Rescue efforts are ongoing at the sites.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73057
Of course, Trump’s speech aimed to anchor the effort against Iran. It would have been strange otherwise. Neither Clinton, Bush, nor any other war president has missed the opportunity, or rather the requirement, to justify military action with their own losses in a speech to the nation.
Then I don’t believe that the war is a complete failure that shines through or is sometimes directly addressed. The fact that the USA has effectively eliminated the entire Iranian navy, air force, air defense, and is currently in the process of decimating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, does not deviate from military objectives or eliminate the possibility of popular uprising. In the latter case, one can compare it to Venezuela, which can also be conducted as a successful military but also political operation. Militarily, they have expelled both Russia and China from the country, and political prisoners have been released. It is a different regime without Maduro, and still with the knife at the throat of those who have taken power. The Nobel Peace Prize winner is at least satisfied with Trump’s efforts and handed over his own prize to him. A person esteemed by the Norwegian Academy. Then again, it’s Norway…
In the same way, as described in the speech, the Iranian leadership has been significantly deradicalized. It is a completely different situation, and even they are under pressure. The risk of completely bombing a country’s leadership and administration is, of course, chaos, as we have seen in Libya and for many years in Iraq. I believe it is the lesson from this that explains the “de-escalation strategy”. It can work in both Iran and Venezuela. In addition, when oppression decreases, democratic forces are liberated and can trigger similar processes as we saw at the end of the Cold War in Europe (Poland, Ceaucescu, among others). Such processes put internal pressure on the remaining regime. Moreover, if the Revolutionary Guard is decimated as mentioned above, and at the same time groups within the country opposing the regime are supplied with weapons (which is said to have happened even before the war), then the process can proceed even faster.
So stop with the doomsday prophecies that too many engage in, including Swedish “experts”, and instead turn your gaze inwards and towards Europe’s own cowardly stance on security issues. Yes, we can handle the Strait of Hormuz ourselves, as I said, we have not participated in the war and therefore have the right to pass through. It’s just a matter of sending down a few escort ships. With the total destruction of Iran’s military capacity and now including the Revolutionary Guard, this is no worse than the pirates off the coast of Somalia.
Shape up!
👍👍👍
👍👍
Well done!
Yes, everything is not in total chaos, and they have clearly destroyed a lot of Iran’s defense/offensive capability. Militarily, it has been successful so far, especially for the USA who themselves have not suffered any major losses, but also in the long term for Israel where Iran will not be as big of a threat in the future.
For the USA, it is also certainly an economic gain as they have managed to increase their exports (more than I actually thought they would achieve, saw something about it increasing by 30%). Admittedly, it is the authorities that are drained of money when it comes to the war while the oil industry is cashing in, but they do pay taxes.
Of course, the stock markets are not doing so well, but the dollar has strengthened.
Regarding the situation in the strait and the possibilities of escorting ships, I find it difficult to actually assess the risks. If you listen to Trump, it is safe, and maybe it is, for the countries that have not sided with Iran and that can get approval from them.
They have already allowed several tankers through.
But without permission, it is probably high risk, with or without an escort.
It could actually be an insurance issue. If insurance companies have claimed “force majeure,” which serious actor would then dare to pass through the strait with a full oil tanker?
Good, but complement it by purchasing complementary anti-drone technology “interceptor drones” from Ukraine. So we can also achieve cost-effective mass production of drones.
“Sweden is purchasing anti-drone systems, announces Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M) according to Ekot.
“It is more important than ever to invest in air defense capabilities. Protection against threats from the air is a high priority for the government and we will conclude more agreements to strengthen the Swedish defense,” Jonson writes in a press release, according to DN.
The systems being purchased can be used to protect military units as well as infrastructure such as nuclear power plants, railway junctions, and cities, writes TT.
The core of the capability will consist of the BAE Systems Bofors air defense cannon Tridon MK2, mounted on a truck with a 40-millimeter caliber, and Saab’s remote-controlled weapon station Trackfire with 30-millimeter cannons.
The deal is worth 8.7 billion Swedish kronor.”
https://omni.se/sverige-koper-antidronarsystem/a/wrr2X4