Ukraine attacked the oil refinery Bashneft-Novoyl during the night
The refinery is located in the Russian city of Ufa and was attacked with drones. The attack caused a fire, but the extent of the damage is not yet known. A residential building was also hit and caught fire. The refinery’s capacity is approximately 8.5MT/year, making it a fairly large refinery but not one of the largest. 8.5MT is roughly 3% of Russia’s total amount of oil refined per year. Omsk, which is the largest, processes around 21-22MT/year.
At the same time, I found information that the entire oil refinery center in Ufa handles close to 24MT/year. Therefore, there are more targets in the area that Ukraine can attack, and if they can temporarily stop most of the production in Ufa, it will have a significant impact.
A video showing the smoke cloud after the fire is available here, Kyiv Independent has an article here.
Russian losses in Ukraine
Russia has now surpassed 1.3 million injured and killed soldiers, and coincidentally today’s report includes a high 1300 KWIA.
- 1300 KWIA
- 2 Tanks
- 7 AFVs
- 59 Artillery systems
- 1 MLRS
- 2497 UAVs
- 195 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
Total Russian losses since the war started:
Russian activities
No surprises in the latest report on Russian activities in Ukraine. Slightly fewer clashes, high KAB and suicide drones. Artillery has increased slightly recently, with 3,889 attacks almost exactly at the current average. Just over a month ago, the average was around 3,000/day.
- 146 combat clashes
- 75 airstrikes
- 257 KAB
- 9,695 suicide drones
- 3,889 artillery attacks (including 77 from MLRS)
SLAVA UKRAINI
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
What surprises me a little is the decreased number of attacks both localized and non-localized, but increased KWIA.
The relationship is usually the opposite.
Could it be that it is now about fewer but larger and/or more intense clashes?
Lately, the losses of armor have increased, not to any huge levels but still a slight rise since the bottom. Russian artillery losses as well. Could be a sign of increased intensity.
Of course, it doesn’t necessarily have to be the Russians who have increased the pressure, Ukraine could also be stepping up its defense.
It would definitely have been interesting to compare armor with KWIA. This I imagine is not as continuous as the number of FPV drones, but is related to planned offensives and therefore more sporadic. There should be a connection to KWIA as in such offensive attacks more expose themselves than when it comes to the more continuous meat grinder.
If I have time to cut and paste a bit over the weekend with Ragnar’s statistics, maybe it’s possible to get something meaningful. Perhaps not exact relationships, but at least so one can somewhat follow the ups and downs. Maybe the battles from the beginning of the war are not available now.
Ideally, one might have wanted to put together both tanks and other armor in one graph. They usually follow each other somewhat, so maybe it doesn’t matter so much which one you choose, but both are interesting.
I thought for a while about collecting data myself to be able to build some graphs. I was then interested in the specific conditions at different phases of the war, where one side or the other has been on the offensive and what the conditions looked like then, for example, between KWIA and other equipment.
Since I haven’t found any open raw data that is easy to use, I didn’t feel like sitting and entering everything myself much later, and it’s also a bit cumbersome, of course, to remember and enter it every day.
Thank you for all the interesting posts 205!
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 2
S Slobozhansky 4
Kupyansk 12💥↗️
Lyman 6
Slovyansk 4
Kramatorsk 1
Kostjantynivka 17💥
Pokrovsk 31💥💥↘️
Oleksandrivskij 7
Huliaipole 20💥
Orikhivsk 0
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 2
Sum sectors 106↘️
Unlocalized 40↘️
Total 146↘️
👍
“❗️During the night, 🇺🇦Ukrainian military shot down 147 out of 172 🇷🇺Russian UAVs (drones).”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3miila3237s2f
🇨🇭🇺🇸 Switzerland hotar att ställa in sin order för det amerikanska Patriot-missilförsvaret och har redan stoppat betalningarna, eftersom USA skjutit upp de schweiziska leveranserna, – Breaking Defense. Det oroar sig för att tvisten om Patriot också kan ställa till det för dess mycket större köp av F-35-stridsflygplan och även andra amerikanska vapen.
“A Ukrainian drone strike hit the Bashneft refinery in Ufa, damaging the AVT-5 distillation unit, a critical component for oil processing and fuel production. The facility lies over 1300 km from Ukraine. The same unit was previously struck in October ’25.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3miind26dlc25
😢😡 “🙏 Two people injured in Russian attack on Chuhuiv! Apartments on the second, third and fourth floors of a four-story building caught fire, the area of the fire reached 300 sq. m. The explosion also damaged neighboring residential buildings and a gas network.” https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3miinl6x5r22l
There is no indication that Donald Trump is about to make a reality of the NATO exit he is considering. Several sources tell Politico.
The site has spoken with sources within NATO, the Pentagon, and Congress, all saying the same thing: the USA is not about to leave.
“There is no evidence that this is for real,” says one of the sources.
The fact that NATO countries did not help him attack Iran, he has portrayed as some kind of final straw and told The Telegraph on Wednesday that he is “more than considering” leaving.
However, Trump cannot do it on his own due to a law that his current Secretary of State Marco Rubio ensured was in place in 2023.
“I can promise this: the Senate will not vote to leave NATO and abandon our allies just because Trump is upset that they did not want to support his irresponsible war,” writes Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer on X.
“Russian forces launched a sweeping overnight drone assault across Ukraine, sparking fires in multiple regions and leaving civilians dead and injured. Rescue efforts are ongoing at the sites.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73057
Of course, Trump’s speech aimed to anchor the effort against Iran. It would have been strange otherwise. Neither Clinton, Bush, nor any other war president has missed the opportunity, or rather the requirement, to justify military action with their own losses in a speech to the nation.
Then I don’t believe that the war is a complete failure that shines through or is sometimes directly addressed. The fact that the USA has effectively eliminated the entire Iranian navy, air force, air defense, and is currently in the process of decimating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, does not deviate from military objectives or eliminate the possibility of popular uprising. In the latter case, one can compare it to Venezuela, which can also be conducted as a successful military but also political operation. Militarily, they have expelled both Russia and China from the country, and political prisoners have been released. It is a different regime without Maduro, and still with the knife at the throat of those who have taken power. The Nobel Peace Prize winner is at least satisfied with Trump’s efforts and handed over his own prize to him. A person esteemed by the Norwegian Academy. Then again, it’s Norway…
In the same way, as described in the speech, the Iranian leadership has been significantly deradicalized. It is a completely different situation, and even they are under pressure. The risk of completely bombing a country’s leadership and administration is, of course, chaos, as we have seen in Libya and for many years in Iraq. I believe it is the lesson from this that explains the “de-escalation strategy”. It can work in both Iran and Venezuela. In addition, when oppression decreases, democratic forces are liberated and can trigger similar processes as we saw at the end of the Cold War in Europe (Poland, Ceaucescu, among others). Such processes put internal pressure on the remaining regime. Moreover, if the Revolutionary Guard is decimated as mentioned above, and at the same time groups within the country opposing the regime are supplied with weapons (which is said to have happened even before the war), then the process can proceed even faster.
So stop with the doomsday prophecies that too many engage in, including Swedish “experts”, and instead turn your gaze inwards and towards Europe’s own cowardly stance on security issues. Yes, we can handle the Strait of Hormuz ourselves, as I said, we have not participated in the war and therefore have the right to pass through. It’s just a matter of sending down a few escort ships. With the total destruction of Iran’s military capacity and now including the Revolutionary Guard, this is no worse than the pirates off the coast of Somalia.
Shape up!
👍👍👍
👍👍
Well done!
Yes, everything is not in total chaos, and they have clearly destroyed a lot of Iran’s defense/offensive capability. Militarily, it has been successful so far, especially for the USA who themselves have not suffered any major losses, but also in the long term for Israel where Iran will not be as big of a threat in the future.
For the USA, it is also certainly an economic gain as they have managed to increase their exports (more than I actually thought they would achieve, saw something about it increasing by 30%). Admittedly, it is the authorities that are drained of money when it comes to the war while the oil industry is cashing in, but they do pay taxes.
Of course, the stock markets are not doing so well, but the dollar has strengthened.
Regarding the situation in the strait and the possibilities of escorting ships, I find it difficult to actually assess the risks. If you listen to Trump, it is safe, and maybe it is, for the countries that have not sided with Iran and that can get approval from them.
They have already allowed several tankers through.
But without permission, it is probably high risk, with or without an escort.
It could actually be an insurance issue. If insurance companies have claimed “force majeure,” which serious actor would then dare to pass through the strait with a full oil tanker?
Without commenting on anything else in the excellent post, I consider it totally impossible to escort ships through the strait. Mines, drones, etc. make it impossible.
Agreed. Those of you who have seen documentary films about the convoys in the Atlantic during WW2. When a torpedo hits a tanker, the crew has no chance. They burn up like torches even if they end up in the sea. It can be compared to Russian roulette to get out of the strait. Cynical and very ignorant statement by Trump.
Yes, as I suspect, the only chance is if Iran has approved it, and even then it probably still involves some risk.
Passing through the Strait of Hormuz should not be worse than passing the coast of Somalia where pirates abound. Who are no more limited than a potentially buried Iranian militia along the Strait of Hormuz when it comes to weapons. Should we submit to Somali pirates with drones / patrol burners and sail around Cape Horn? And how to deal with threats within the country/union? There has already been talk in the thread about terrorist cells and gang criminals equipped with drones.
A militarily defeated Iran must also at some point engage in its own exports to rebuild the country, which is what is meant in Trump’s speech that when the war is over, the strait will open itself. An Iran that obstructs ships that have the right to pass can, like Russia, be subjected to sanctions, thereby strangling their own oil exports. I don’t see where the problem lies.
Johan, who at fourteen years old (in appearance, actually older half-brother* to the king, *”deal” between The Old and Queen Sibylla), who commanded the hunt for U137, should be able to come up with a plan, right?
Johan was the ship’s captain on “Halland” and I myself was a depth charge dropper on “Gästrikland”. You don’t need to worry! We can do this!
We are swimming calmly! 😄
😂
Good, but complement it by purchasing complementary anti-drone technology “interceptor drones” from Ukraine. So we can also achieve cost-effective mass production of drones.
“Sweden is purchasing anti-drone systems, announces Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M) according to Ekot.
“It is more important than ever to invest in air defense capabilities. Protection against threats from the air is a high priority for the government and we will conclude more agreements to strengthen the Swedish defense,” Jonson writes in a press release, according to DN.
The systems being purchased can be used to protect military units as well as infrastructure such as nuclear power plants, railway junctions, and cities, writes TT.
The core of the capability will consist of the BAE Systems Bofors air defense cannon Tridon MK2, mounted on a truck with a 40-millimeter caliber, and Saab’s remote-controlled weapon station Trackfire with 30-millimeter cannons.
The deal is worth 8.7 billion Swedish kronor.”
https://omni.se/sverige-koper-antidronarsystem/a/wrr2X4
SPEAR SHAFT
Today, I have donated 41,000 SEK to Power Up Ukraine!
After summing up income and expenses, there was an additional 6,000 SEK left over in addition to the estimated amount of 34,445 SEK (based on a percentage of sales).
A big thank you to those who have purchased the coin and other products so far!
Hold on to the spear shaft and continue supporting Ukraine!
Great job 👏
Thank you!
Nice! And it was a nice coin too!
Thank you!
Brilliant! ☀️💰
Thank you!
I will pick up at the delivery point in a moment. Great initiative MXT!
Thank you and hope you will be satisfied!
“The AFU advanced east of Kupyansk”
https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/2039609082429288485?s=20
“It is unrealistic to open the Strait of Hormuz by military means. This is stated by a somewhat frustrated Emmanuel Macron during a state visit to South Korea according to AFP.
The French president’s statement comes after his American counterpart said that the countries dependent on the oil transported through the strait could open it themselves.
– It is unrealistic because it would take an unreasonably long time and expose everyone crossing the strait to threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which has significant resources, he says, calling for a ceasefire through diplomacy.
Donald Trump attacked Iran together with Israel without first consulting with other allies. When NATO countries did not join the war, Trump responded with anger, threatened to leave the defense alliance, and suggested that the strait should remain closed.”
“Donald Trump probably did not plan for the US attacks on Iran to come with a gift worth $500 billion over the next four years. This is written by Reuters’ Hugo Dixon, in light of reports that Iran has started charging $2 million for each ship that wants to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
“With the huge profits that Arab states make from transporting oil and LNG through the bottleneck, Iran could squeeze out $120 billion a year until producers have built new pipelines to bypass the strait.”
Bloomberg’s Marcus Ashworth writes that the world economy could suffer long-lasting damage even if the war were to end relatively soon.
“Rising energy prices may be the most visible effect, but how long they remain high will determine the extent of the damage to supply chains – and how severely global growth is affected.”
He concludes that the war is bad for fighting inflation, but worse for growth.”
https://omni.se/analyser-trump-har-gett-iran-en-mangmiljardgava-som-pressar-tillvaxten/a/Bxx95Q
China has been significantly expanding its nuclear program for several years. This is shown by CNN’s examination of satellite images and Chinese state documents.
The expansion is perhaps most noticeable in the Sichuan province. A few years ago, farmers had their land confiscated by the state, and shortly thereafter, the construction of the nearby nuclear energy base began, which has long been a known part of the country’s nuclear program.
The base, located next to the Tongjiang River, now houses, among other things, a nearly 3,500 square meter dome, but exactly what is happening under it is still shrouded in mystery.
“This building is almost like a Rorschach test for people’s worst fears about what China is up to,” says Jeffrey Lewis, a prominent researcher in global security at Middlebury College.
“NATO’s Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, is set to meet Donald Trump in Washington next week, reports The Hill. The White House states that the meeting has been planned “for a while”, at the same time, the meeting takes place after the president told The Telegraph that he is considering withdrawing the USA from the military alliance.
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has also expressed that the country will need to reassess its relationship with NATO. The Trump administration is dissatisfied with not receiving assistance from NATO countries in the Iran war, pointing out, among other things, that they have not been allowed to use the countries’ air bases.”
My login was flagged as suspicious and blocked, but since I had some admin-light access, I approved myself.
Did you forget to block my backdoor as well, MXT 🧐
Sure, does the firewall plugin classify you as a high-security risk?
Maybe I should just delete your account altogether! Maybe you’re not Johan at all!🤔
What is offensive, I do not accept.
😄
Yes, what a mess the USA has caused.
Before they bombed the oil infrastructure in Iran and we saw the steps towards a popular uprising, it was reasonable.
Now Iraqi militias are in Iran and I see very little about a popular uprising – the Iraqi militia really bothers me.
I can’t figure it out because Israel absolutely wants to bring in a pro-Western pasha instead.
Has Israel been overrun?
You know what I think about oil infrastructure.
But deliberately avoiding regime change is much more sinister.
Trump says the new leaders are more moderate – so it’s actually the IRGC hardliners who have taken over, so much WORSE.
The only thing that has really happened is that the USA will soon impose tariffs in the Hormuz and then get a percentage of Iran’s oil revenues.
And then the Middle East is unstable and the USA THINKS they will get paid for security but Ukraine ruins the party, which they don’t like.
Is the USA just like the bank, not your friend?
The USA does what is good for them?
All Krasnov undertakes turns to shit.
Except for the Kremlin and him and his entourage’s wealth.
Financially, Iran is probably positive for them overall. If they can maintain control even after the war and, like the mafia, demand “security guarantees” for a good payment, then it’s pure profit. So far, it obviously looks like Iran is making a fortune, and they certainly won’t stop even if the war ends.
Is this some kind of recognition that the USA is doing what is good for the USA 🧐
Yes, in the short term, it is probably so in the case of Iran. Overall, they are likely to lose the respect of the world, which could cost considerably more in the long run.
Furthermore, it may be the case that we increase our imports of solar and wind energy from China when we do not have time to build nuclear power, but at the same time realize that we must reduce our oil dependency not only for climate reasons.
Asking a friend – what is the definition of “short term”?
“Sell USA” was already chanted in 2025 but the dollar is strong and everyone wants to buy the national debt.
The negative effects may take years to manifest. Admittedly, people forget quickly and when Trump is gone, everything may stabilize, unless Vance were to become president.
Well, Trump’s speech last night wasn’t as apocalyptic as I had feared, but rather mostly stale leftovers with a bit of whining about previous presidents and boasting about his own superiority.
205 was positive and that’s good if the new regime is more moderate than the old one.
Now, I am notoriously suspicious of everything Trump says, and I don’t believe that the negotiations are going as well as he claims, while the Iranian regime denies Trump’s claims. It’s almost as if one could believe that the USA is negotiating with someone pretending to be the Iranian regime. The Iranian regime is an Islamist theocracy, and I find it hard to believe that they have suddenly turned kind; the Taliban didn’t become softies after 20 years of occupation either.
I think there is a chance that countries that have not participated in Israel’s and the USA’s wars may have the opportunity to negotiate some deal for oil shipments, even if it may cost a bit. Now, the mullah regime is still in power and we shouldn’t pay them a cent, but at the same time, it seems that Israel/USA has now created a situation where we have to choose between being forced to abandon fossil fuels quickly with an economic and social crash, or go to war against Iran while Russia is pounding in the east, or negotiate something that both we and Iran can accept, so we can try to influence Iran and its regime in other ways.
I’m starting to feel that the same negative aura that exists in the Ukraine war also applies to the Iran war, but we’ll see, hopefully I’m wrong 😀
Even though it would of course be somewhat satisfying to be able to say, “I told you so,” when Trump causes total disaster, one would rather see the regime back down and the people take over.
Now I was hoping for the same when it comes to Venezuela, but there it didn’t get much better, the same leadership that out of self-preservation has been forced to give the USA the opportunity to exploit the country’s oil + of course release a few hundred prisoners, and that was of course good, but otherwise I have not seen any improvement. It may be because the media no longer finds it interesting to report on.
The window is a few weeks away but the damn Shia militia from Iraq is very worrying…
Venezuela was justified – I have written that many times.
I was positive about Iran because Israel was going for a regime change.
If another month goes by, the IRGC remains in place, the USA gets its protector money, and everything else remains the same – then it is also highly justified.
Yes, absolutely, we have a very clear thread since 2022 where the USA has only done what is good for them (they believe) at the expense of everyone else. Four years where country after country pays a high price.
You also have Cuba left and that they will not lift a finger for Europe when Russia advances its positions.
I don’t know if the USA is doing what is best for the USA. Not with Trump’s gang anyway. I still don’t think that what is negative for everyone else is good for the USA. That’s how they’ve been going about it, well, with some exceptions. They support Orban, Fico, Lukashenko, and Putin. But Trump likes to surround himself with strong men, so he doesn’t mind if the USA’s influence diminishes around the democratic world as long as he gets to be friends with the world’s dictatorships.
Yes, Russia’s influence in the world has decreased, but it’s almost as if one could think that it was something they agreed on, as the Russians left directly when the USA was on the move. Division into spheres of interest, that’s what it is.
Now one can wonder what the USA is doing in Iran, that can’t be in the USA’s sphere of interest, but the USA also functions as Israel’s bodyguard, and Trump (maybe together with Putin) wants control of the world’s oil to curb China and Europe when needed.
Mo doesn’t hear much about Israel.
One assumption I’ve made is that they’ve gone for regime change.
At least for the first 3 weeks, it was full speed ahead towards that.
Lots of information – sleep in shifts, armed citizens, drone attacks.
This was on top of the list of leaders that Sun died.
Now it’s quiet, isn’t it?
Iraqi militia was let in by the US and Israel.
Trump likes the new IRGC regime.
—
In fact, Israel’s security situation today is significantly worse than before February 28th.
If the IRGC takes over, it’s even worse.
—
I’m missing something – has Israel been run over by the US?
NEVER will Israel see this as an acceptable outcome
BUT why don’t they push for a popular uprising as soon as they can?
—
We are still within a reasonable window and Israel may have been working towards it in secret – who knows.
We only have Trump’s rants to go on right now and what’s happening on the ground.
—
Right now, the map is being redrawn in the Middle East and Israel is not the most popular neighbor at all right now – without regime change, it’s even worse for them.
Sitting in the car 😳
Good, it’s rarely successful to try to stand in the car, plus it’s difficult to fasten the seatbelt then.👍
If the grifter couple Trump and Bibi find a group of leaders in Iran focused on grifting to collaborate with:
The above quite undisputed (?) facts may not necessarily mean that there is such a plan in fact…
Well now you are a step ahead than I dare 😀
So we are at the point that the USA has possibly changed sides completely – could very well be true and I am perhaps a bit more cold war damaged so far
Regarding MBS kissing Trump’s ass… it was probably the case that Saudi made some agreement with Iran a few years ago…. “peace initiative mediated by China”…. so maybe that’s why MBS now might be forced to know his place…?
Hmm, good thinking, that might actually be the case. If Trump feels that the new leader is his type, a decisive powerful and handsome man, and he can make a buck out of it, then it might happen. We saw how impressed he was by the new Syrian leader.
So that no one misunderstands –
The USA has never mentioned regime change, but Israel has been very clear both in words and actions.
During the first few weeks, Israel worked hard against a popular uprising, even chasing Bashij patrols hiding under bridges with drones. The first IRGC members fled to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and do you remember the fire festival two weeks ago when citizens were out on the streets?
Israel has also worked hard to win over the army to the people’s side and equally hard to scare the IRGC and Bashij into desertion with threats through all channels available to them.
They have disrupted TV broadcasts several times, calling for preparation for a popular uprising, but also stating that citizens should keep a low profile during the intense combat phase.
Pasha activated his immortal guard (the name…) and the first patrols were shot on the streets.
Pasha activated his transitional government in exile.
The above are facts and do not need to be questioned or discussed.
Israel now has complete air superiority, and their job has been targeting the leaders, IRGC, and Bashij, as I have understood it.
The USA has been responsible for SEAD and then bombing military infrastructure, while Israel has taken a bit more risk with direct flyovers, as we saw in the movie.
Step two – the people rise up in cities in the provinces and take over the city. When the IRGC sends a battalion there, Israel is there and shoots them away. This is how the USA has worked with the Kurds in Syria, and now the AR-10 Warthog and Apache have been brought to the area for JUST THAT TYPE OF OPERATION. You don’t send your top ground attack platforms halfway around the world without a plan, right?
Fast forward a bit, and suddenly there are videos from Iraq showing thousands of Shia militias preparing to go to Iran, and then videos of them patrolling the streets of Tehran.
It’s 900km between Baghdad and Tehran, and the USA also has a military presence in Iraq, right? They have been aware of these militias and could have fought them for at least 2-3 days, and the USA/Israel have an excellent kill chain.
Somewhere around there, we have a turning point, and I think it has become significantly quieter regarding how to counteract the popular uprising.
– Has Israel been overrun?
– It’s clear that the USA executed a quick smash-and-grab and will get a percentage of everything, right?
– Will the USA support Israel in the upcoming chaos?
There is a HUGE risk of political chaos in Israel after this because after the Gaza situation, broad groups are not entirely satisfied to begin with, and if the Iran war is perceived as a failure, someone will pay the political price for it – Netanyahu?
Yes, I may be a bit early with my concerns because the window is still open for Israel’s regime change, but the longer time goes on, the more uncertain it becomes.
Try to explain to me how Israel can risk the lives of its pilots to fight down to individual Bashij patrols and then allow an equal number of Iraqi militias through, making it a zero-sum game.
– The only conclusion that can be drawn here, IF there is no attempt at a popular uprising, is that the USA overrode Israel?
Then we can only hope that Israel releases all the compromising material they have on everyone in the USA as revenge 🤣🤣🤣
At step 2, remember not to be blinded by how nice it would be. For Trumpen, it’s surely just one of twenty possible ways forward. If someone instead comes with an offer that pays better for him, he will take it.
That said, I keep both my fingers and toes crossed that it will be pockets of rebellion.
Well, the USA has been very clear that they are not seeking regime change 😀
Israel has been clear that they want it and have worked against it.
The USA and Trump have not denied anything, in other words.
Do not misunderstand 2.
The USA is probably quite satisfied, they seem to have now scared the IRGC into getting a good deal out of this – surely there will be protection money in the end and lots of other perks.
Iran’s leaders have seen what happens if they try to be obstinate so now they will do the next best thing and pay not to be killed.
Of course, they will spin it as a great victory and so on but Trump can never keep quiet so we know that something like that is in the works.
The dictator can definitely stay in power as long as he pays his taxes to the USA.
The USA has achieved a lot –
– shots fired at China.
– intimidated MENA.
– more compliant Europe.
– strengthened the status of the petrodollar.
There is really only one cloud on Trump’s orange sky – Ukraine.
They have the audacity to start negotiating with MENA countries who then dare to be tough on the USA – absolutely not part of the plan 🤣🤣🤣
Ukraine is doing so well on the battlefield that Europe is starting to toughen up against the USA – also not according to plan.
Trump and the USA have really been trying to bring down the stubborn Ukrainians all of 2025 but they simply refuse to give up.
It will be exciting to see what actually happens.
Wondering if Israel will settle for an imam who says he will be kind. As soon as Trump looks away, they will come up with some mischief against Israel, and Trump is not exactly a youngster.
So I think that’s about the situation and as for the US defense, they have just done what they said from the beginning 😀
And of course that the USA gets a lot of benefits from this in the end – hard to see anything directly negative for the USA so far?
Well, there goes an exciting travel post I was planning to spice up because I wasn’t logged in, was writing it directly in the thread.
Anyway – traveling tomorrow for three weeks, will post something but then be quiet for a while.
Hang around here with MXT for your daily dose of Russian death.
Creative excuse! I’m going to steal that one!
Damn long journey, is it around the world a few times we’re talking about?
Or maybe the moon? You know they’ve already sent up Artemis II, was it meant for you to go with?
Speaking of the moon trip. Hardly any publicity about the launch. All journalists are busy with Trump Iran and Ukraine. Apparently, the event has no news value.
Good observation, it should actually be a bigger news. The toilet concerns seemed almost more interesting to write about.
How will it be possible to write on the mobile phone from a spacecraft?
Regarding Gerald R Ford’s departure from the war. This aircraft carrier is escorted by missile cruisers, 5-6 destroyers, a number of frigates, and some (a few) nuclear submarines. In addition, 70-80 fighter jets. We can probably agree that we have very good protection. But the ship becomes inoperable due to a fire in the laundry room and plumbing problems. Is this an April Fool’s joke? Can this ship be so sensitive? No, is my answer. It’s about something else that the USA doesn’t want to disclose. I have my suspicions but I will wait to tell about them.
When you describe it like that, one can’t help but agree that it sounds a bit strange. Looking forward to your continuation!
I forgot to wish you a pleasant journey!
Off Topic: Pam Bondi is out.
Trump fires Attorney General Pam Bondi
Either the pressure on Trump became too great, or he is afraid that Pam would give in to the pressure and release Epstein documents that would be disastrous for him.
She will be temporarily replaced by Trump’s lawyer, and in the long term replaced by Lee Zeldin, who is currently the head of the EPA.
She would probably testify under oath in Congress about the Epstein affairs in a couple of weeks….
… so worth keeping an eye on what happens with that hearing…
… and also worth keeping track of the actions taken by tf… tf is Trump’s personal lawyer and tf does not require congressional approval…
ZELENSKYY to BBC: We went through difficult relations with Iran. We did nothing to them. They shot down our plane, killed our passengers and crew, didn’t admit it, and didn’t let experts in.
Then the full-scale war started. They handed Shahed drones to Russians to kill our civilians. I asked them to stop. They promised there would be only one batch. They lied and kept supplying weapons.
That’s why I consider them accomplices of Russia.
Video 🎥
https://x.com/bohuslavskakate/status/2039767750000742674?s=46
ukranian made ATACMS
Macron has something Trump has spent his entire life trying to purchase and never quite managed.
Class.
https://x.com/microinteracti1/status/2039661909474000947?s=46
😄
1/🧵 Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive has pushed 10 km into Russian defenses and liberated up to 440 square km.
Yuryst, 82nd Air Assault Brigade: “We are dictating this line. The initiative is on our side. It is very satisfying to push it south toward the enemy”, — Hromadske.
2/🧵
https://x.com/mylovanov/status/2039720175151264188?s=46
Good morning!
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-04-03
1230 KWIA
3 Tanks
6 AFVs
65 Artillery systems
1236 UAVs
177 Vehicles & fuel tanks
2 Special equipment
SLAVA UKRAINI
Well-deserved vacation. Even though MXT is slightly ahead in the comment section, you are the undisputed writer in terms of quantity, in words counted.
Regarding the Shia militias, I tried to verify with ChatGPT and the answer is black and white that they are probably real videos but the time and place may not match. It’s about disinformation.
https://youtube.com/shorts/GV-5CccmyY8?is=H5hwM7oT6oyd8CqH
In-depth analysis (based on real video + verified info)
🧩 1. Origin: what do we know for sure?
“militia convoy from Iraq to Iran”
👉 This means:
The video is not fabricated – but the context is unclear from the start.
🧩 2. Frame-by-frame (detailed level)
🎞️ Frame 1–3: Vehicles & formation
Observation:
Expert interpretation:
👉 Conclusion: almost certainly Iraqi militia
🎞️ Frame 4–6: Flags
Observation:
Verified context:
👉 HOWEVER:
🎞️ Frame 7–10: Cargo & content (very important)
Detail often missed:
Verified from reporting:
👉 This changes the entire interpretation:
❗ Viral version:
“militias mobilizing for war”
✔️ Likely reality:
mix of militias + logistical/humanitarian transport
🎞️ Frame 11–15: Language (decisive)
Observation:
Implication:
👉 This alone often suffices to debunk inaccurate captions
🎞️ Frame 16–20: Geography
Observation:
Comparison:
👉 The video:
⚠️ 3. The biggest misinterpretation (critical point)
Here’s what happens when the video spreads:
🔁 Step 1 – Genuine video
✔️ PMF convoy in Iraq (or near border)
🔁 Step 2 – New caption
❌ “Thousands of militias on their way to invade Iran”
🔁 Step 3 – New mutation
❌ “They are now patrolling Tehran”
👉 But:
🧠 4. What is actually true (nuanced)
✔️ Iraqi militias HAVE:
BUT:
❗ There is no strong evidence that:
⚖️ Final assessment (deep level)
🔎 The video itself:
✅ Likely authentic
✅ Shows real militias
❌ The claim it’s used for:
🎯 Bottom line
This is a textbook example of:
genuine video + wrong context = disinformation