The conflicts between Israel + USA against Iran continue. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several Iranian leaders have been killed in an attack, and Iran has promised “an unprecedented revenge operation.” Iran has managed to attack several targets with its Shahed drones, both American bases and purely civilian targets. At the same time, both Israel and the USA have struck several targets in Iran. It is difficult to get a clear picture of what both sides have actually achieved.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death is celebrated by many, while reports also emerge from Iran of people mourning. It is a great success for Israel and the USA, but one may wonder if it will have any significant impact. Apparently, three new leaders have already been appointed to take over after him. The risk is that his fanatical followers may now see him as a martyr. Iran, of course, stands no chance against the USA and Israel if they are truly determined, but on the other hand, we know that religious fanatics can be willing to do almost anything.
Once again, Trump exceeded his powers as president and attacked without congressional approval, even though four from each side were informed beforehand. There will probably be no direct consequences this time either. At the same time, he is walking a fine line. Even though virtually all Republicans still support him (many argue that they dare not do otherwise because they know that Trump has the power to ensure they lose in the next election), he has now angered several of his MAGA supporters. One of the fundamental ideas behind America First has been that the USA should not engage in wars that do not concern them. American soldiers are now at risk, but the threat level has also increased for all Americans.
The attack on Iran is also an attack on Russia. Iran has (mainly in the past) assisted Russia with Shaheds and other equipment. How much they have delivered recently is hard to say, as Russia seems to have ramped up its own production significantly, but regardless, the deliveries that do occur are unlikely to continue. However, the hardest blow to Russia is probably more psychological. They now seem to be losing yet another ally, and once again, it turns out that it is not worth entering into security agreements with Russia; they do not lift a finger when their help is truly needed. This is, of course, positive for Ukraine. With a bit of luck, we may also see a decrease in the nightly UAV attacks in the future.
Although the Iranian people deserve to be liberated and the current regime violates human rights, the war will still be classified as an unprovoked illegal attack. The UN is unlikely to be able to do anything, and the USA will, of course, veto any actions.
There is much speculation about why Trump is entering this war.
Trump and the USA are entering the war with the justification that Iran is a threat to all (which they, of course, to some extent are right about) and that they must not acquire nuclear weapons. At the same time, that threat would have been averted with the previous attack. Trump came out strongly against those who dared to suggest that the attack had not had a significant impact. At the same time, reports emerged that Iran was actually not very close to developing functional weapons.
Could it be that Trump feels compassion for the Iranian people? I find it hard to believe, even though he suggests it himself when he urges them to rise up. It is much easier to defeat a country when you have the majority of the population on your side. Those who support Trump prefer that aspect, but regardless of whether it is a genuine reason or not, the result of a free and democratic Iran would be a tremendous success, primarily for the population but also for global security. Depending on how the war ends, we may also draw conclusions from this. If there is a settlement with a new regime in Iran without much change, it is a sign that it was not so important. Not much has changed in Venezuela. The same regime continues to rule, although they have released many political prisoners, so some positive outcome did come out of it.
Is it that Trump wants to go hard against Russia’s allies to reduce their influence? Not impossible at all. Regardless of whether one believes that Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine for his own gain or because he cares about the Ukrainian people, it is, of course, a significant advantage to weaken Russia. This increases the chances of peace agreements in the long run but also gives the USA a much better negotiating position, even in terms of economic deals. Russia is rich in natural resources, and the worse off they are, the better deals the USA can get. Even though opinions may differ on Trump and his economic knowledge, we can be quite sure that money is high on his agenda. (Selling golden shoes has proven that he is willing to go to great lengths for the opportunity to make money).
Trump surely also wants everyone to see that he has full control over the USA and at the same time demonstrate that they have the world’s strongest military force that can strike hard anywhere. This gives them an advantage in all forms of negotiations and agreements with other countries.
Opinion poll numbers in the USA ahead of the midterm elections are slowly deteriorating. Starting a war is a good way to shift focus away from Epstein, rising consumer prices, etc. In this case, he will also ensure strong support from Israel and the Israelis living in the USA. But as I wrote above, it may actually turn out to be a foolish move as it does not align with what MAGA envisioned with America First. Congress is also upset as they have once again been overridden.
For my part, who really does not want to see Trump in power, I hope he digs his own grave.
Another aspect is oil and oil prices. If this continues for several weeks while maritime transport at the Strait of Hormuz remains halted, prices will rise. This benefits both the USA and Russia but will lead to generally increased prices. Johan No.1 might even argue that this is exactly what the USA wants, to crash the economy to emerge as the victor. The conspiracy theorist who believes that the USA is serving Russia’s interests might even dare to suggest that this has been orchestrated with Putin. Oil production in Russia is not doing well, and the only way for Russia to earn more money is through higher oil prices.
Personally, I do not believe that Trump actually benefits from rising oil prices. There is a risk that it will also impact gasoline prices in the USA. This would diminish the chances of a successful midterm election.
Just like with Venezuela, I have mixed feelings. The chances of the Iranian people achieving their liberation have significantly increased, and Russia has been weakened at the same time. Khamenei got what he deserved. On the other hand, one can question whether it is really good for the USA to unilaterally (or in this case, together with Israel) decide to attack another country? I would have preferred to see Khamenei brought before the International Court in The Hague and an attack on Iran sanctioned through the UN. Now, the UN is weak and cannot achieve anything on its own, but should the USA be the world’s police force and do as they please whenever they want?
The war has greatly deteriorated the security situation, and some even discuss that the risk of a third world war has increased (although I do not believe we will end up there). It is easy to sit on the sidelines and think that it is entirely right to intervene and overthrow a country, but soldiers and civilians die on both sides.
War is a tragedy and should be avoided for as long as possible.
I ask myself whether this war was really necessary and worth the price it will cost. I have no answer at this time.
Russian losses in Ukraine
Once again a large number of UAVs. High numbers for artillery and soft vehicles.
- 870 KWIA
- 2 Tanks
- 6 AFVs
- 58 Artillery systems
- 1 MLRS
- 3 Air defense systems
- 1722 UAVs
- 181 Vehicles & fuel tanks
Russian activities
Many KAB and drones
- 158 Striders
- 80 Air strikes
- 241 KAB
- 8,613 Suicide drones
- 3,604 Artillery attacks (63 from MLRS)
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
“Yesterday’s Ukrainian Flamingo missile strikes against Russia were some of the deepest attacks so far. Some of the missiles flew nearly 2000 km (~ 1242 mi) before attacking their targets. Russia is wide open for Ukraine’s new domestically mass-produced missiles.”
https://bsky.app/profile/slavaukraini033.bsky.social/post/3mfxgjy7eik2f
❗️Putin has lost three of his closest friends. The domino effect of toppled dictators must continue, — Sybiha Ukraine’s Foreign Minister reacted to the death of the Ayatollah by stating that in just over a year, Putin has lost three of his closest allies Bashar al-Assad, Nicolás Maduro, and Ali Khamenei. “Assad, Maduro, and now Khamenei. Putin has lost three of his closest pals in little more than a year. He has also not helped any of them.
The domino of fallen dictators must continue, and Putin’s fall one day is inevitable. Together we must make every effort to bring that joyful day closer and ensure accountability for all Russian crimes. Justice is inevitable.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mfycauc3jk2n
These are all the closest to half- and fanatical and ideally one would wish that no one cared about them and what they have to say.
Unfortunately, they still have a great influence within certain groups in the USA.
Of course, I wouldn’t complain if MAGA is eaten up from within and it leads to Trump’s downfall (of course, depending a bit on who takes over after him, Vance would probably be just as bad an alternative).
“Several conservative profiles are launching harsh attacks against Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran, which they consider a betrayal of a promise not to start any new wars. This is reported by Rolling Stone.
The journalist and activist Tucker Carlson, who visited the White House as recently as last week, calls the attack “completely vile and evil.”
Marjorie Taylor Greene, formerly a loyal Trump supporter in the House of Representatives, now an activist and debater, calls the administration “sick fucking liars.”
“We voted for America First and zero wars,” she writes on X.
Further out on the conservative fringes, conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes, and the rape and trafficking accused influencer Andrew Tate are also raging.”
Ok, so the strait is still open.
“The Strait of Hormuz remains open to tankers “until further notice,” said former IRGC commander & Secretary of the Expediency Discernment Council, Major General Rezaei. His remarks were cited by the FT. At the same time, he warned that U.S. military vessels are “legitimate targets” for Iranian strikes.”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mfyghnfjls2i
“The Belgian Armed Forces, with assistance from the French Ministry of the Armed Forces, have intercepted and boarded an oil tanker identified as part of Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet.” The ship is now being escorted to the port of Zeebrugge, where authorities intend to impound it.”
Well, the security situation has hardly deteriorated, has it? And it’s lucky that there are leaders who don’t sit idly by and hesitate for days on end, otherwise Russia would have continued to have a strong foothold in Central America, Iran, and Syria.
At the same time as you express doubt about the whole thing, you say, “This is obviously positive for Ukraine.“. Yes, and? Then it is undoubtedly positive for Europe as well, as most security policy analysts have noted that Ukraine carries Europe’s freedom on its shoulders.
What do you think?
“With a bit of luck, we might also see a decrease in the nightly UAV attacks in the future.”
The fact is that the number of UAV attacks against Ukraine decreased already with the first attack last year.
Person A is out drunk driving with over 2 per mille in blood alcohol level and manages to hit person B. He gets his spine crushed and will be disabled and bedridden for the rest of his life.
It soon turns out that person B is a wanted murderer and pedophile.
The majority think that he got exactly what he deserved and many even praise the drunk driver.
Does this mean that:
1. Person A should not be judged for his drunk driving
2. That we should rewrite the laws so that it is no longer punishable to drive under the influence (something “good” might come out of it)?
One can be positive about a result even if critical of how it was achieved.
If we add to the little story above that person C, a young girl who was held captive by person B, was also seriously injured, does that change the attitude towards the story when an innocent person is also affected?
Even though it is positive for Ukraine that Russia is weakened, it affects civilians in countries on both sides, civilians who have nothing to do with Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine.
I hope this can help you understand why I have conflicting feelings about the war against Iran.
I might see it differently when it’s over depending on the outcome.
The USA has warned Americans in the Middle East themselves. Iran does not hesitate to carry out terrorist acts if they believe it can benefit them.
One way for Iran to stop the USA is to show as many killed Americans as possible. This can turn public opinion in the USA against the war to the extent that they feel compelled to withdraw. Iran hardly cares whether it’s civilians or soldiers, and if civilians from other countries are affected, they probably don’t care either.
I hope we don’t have to see that type of terror attacks, Iran probably wants to try to appear as the peaceful ones who have been attacked, but the more desperate they become, the greater the risk of attacks.
There is also a risk that the conflict will spread.
I think it’s obvious that the security situation has deteriorated as long as the war continues.
The day Iran is defeated, we will of course have a completely different situation, but we are not there yet.
If one simplifies the whole thing and lets a distinction be made between Trump, yes the entire Republican party in Maga psychosis, and the American administration at large, then the latter is something that regardless of the ruling president and party has a position of power and weight in decisions like this. It’s about the interests of the USA, as much, or more, than the Trumpian clan and his Republican puppets (although it should not be the whole party).
Yes, then one can also look at the whole thing with different eyes, than to be distracted by what the president’s history is. As the Maggan wrote in the previous thread, it’s about an Iran that has been shouting death to the USA for almost 30 years or more. When Trump was still playing real estate mogul.
The long-term (28 days rolling) average of the number of Russian attacks decreased slightly last night. At the lowest level since May 1, 2025.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
S Slobozhansky 7↗️
Kupyansk 5↗️
Lyman 6
Slovyansk 7
Kramatorsk 0↘️
Kostjantynivka 7↘️
Pokrovsk 25💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 7↗️
Huliaipole 45💥💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 0
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 0
Sum sectors 109
Unlocalized 49
Total 158
👍
Should one really rely so heavily on the UN? A crushing majority of the countries there are non fully functioning democracies, around 15% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index)
Why should one ask this assembly if it supports an attack to overthrow a regime? The answer is quite obvious?
Sweden is a democracy, so we are steeped in the belief that it is the best form of government, but if we push it to the extreme, it resembles the crusades, “if you don’t have democracy, we will force you there”.
Don’t get me wrong, I believe that democracy is the least bad form of government, but maybe we should accept that there are other opinions in the world?
No, unfortunately one cannot rely on the UN, they are handicapped by their own veto rules and have mostly become a debating club. They can still carry out relief efforts in various ways and work on supportive efforts for the affected, but as a political power their heyday has long passed.
But that doesn’t mean that one can’t wish it were different and I still think one should try. The fact that the USA does exactly as they please without even checking if there is support from civilized countries (or even coordinating) is worrying. Almost every time it could be China acting.
Whether one wants to accept others’ views on democracy or not, there isn’t much choice when it comes to other countries, but if one is for democracy, mustn’t one advocate for it over other forms of government?
But the phase of development with Europe as an intermediary base has not occurred without Europe at least turning a blind eye. And probably more entrenched than what can be considered the majority of democratic countries.
Advocating vs. forcing through violence, I see a certain difference.
I agree with you on the matter, but I want to broaden the thoughts, that in the West we are not always right.
Last time, it was well ryz who acted by trying to remove the Nazi government led by a Jew in Ukraine, right?
It’s always good to try to change perspectives (and question oneself).👍
The UN is an example of when one has tried to create something with a good intention, but then it ends up with nothing getting done. Sometimes it can of course be better to get something done than to ask first.
There are certainly many brainwashed people in Russia and among their soldiers who believe in the propaganda and are convinced that they are fighting for the right side against a malevolent Ukraine.
Just like Islamists who think they are following the only right path and that they have God on their side, and therefore everything they do is justified.
As you write, we in the West are not always right (especially if we look back many years).
That’s why I like to question.
Here on the blog, the majority seems to think that the USA is doing everything right (and I hope that in the long run it will also prove to be the case). It’s good for everyone if the Iranian regime falls (yes, except for themselves of course).
As a resident of the UAE for the past six months, it has suddenly become uncomfortable to be here. Air raid sirens go off several times a day, and I see rockets being shot down by the air defense, which I can easily observe by just looking out the window.
I really wonder if Iran has thought this through properly when they are waving wildly and attacking a handful of other countries in the MENA region? Iran has made strange statements, suggesting that they can somehow attack their neighboring countries and that those countries should continue to support Iran. Clearly, things have not gone as Iran intended.
Thank you for the live report! Do the attacks continue even after the report of the top leadership’s fall? An expected response and the country well prepared considering a long build-up phase from the American and Israeli side?
Israel may get company in the role of “closest mourner”. Then, well, the UAE and other Arab states are not major military powers, at least not compared to Israel? Historically, Iraq has been an enemy of Iran, but militarily it is not a threat to Iran either, right?
Interesting to hear from someone who is on site! 👍
I agree that it’s a bit strange that they are attacking from all possible directions. I don’t know if they want to get other countries to put pressure on Israel and the USA to stop the war, or if they have some other idea with it. Maybe to spread the war, but logically they should rather make enemies.
If it had only been about American bases in different countries, it would have been easier to understand. They might hope to succeed in killing a larger number of American tourists or similar. That could change the situation in the USA if many Americans lose their lives.
The attacks are ongoing continuously, just received a new air raid alert and I have pictures of shootdowns that I received from colleagues just a few minutes ago. I am reading the local press here and there are considerable amounts being sent, solely against the UAE, there were 137 missiles and 209 drones (shaheds maybe?) just yesterday, here is the statistics:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/uae-details-iranian-attack-response-official-updates-on-interceptions-casualties-flights
If anyone is interested in what is happening in this area, there are good live updates here:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/us-iran-tensions-israel-strikes-tehran-live-updates-day-2
Maybe there are some other things mentioned than in the Swedish press as the focus is more on this nearby area.
“❗️Iran is making its first attempts to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Not far from the coast of Oman, an oil tanker Skylight sailing under the flag of Palau was attacked by a kamikaze drone, and its crew had to be evacuated.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mfyl7muh2c2v
Protests in Pakistan.
My guess is that there will be an explosion at some American embassy sooner or later.
“🇵🇰 In Pakistan, protesters attacked the US consulate According to local media, a large number of protesters gathered near the consulate and chanted slogans in response to the killing of Khamenei.”
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3mfyl6jnmhc2i
The UN takes a hit:
“In Pakistan, supporters of Khamenei set fire to a UN office in the city of Skardu, media report.”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mfyjpkter22i
😎🔥Soldiers of the 1st separate SBS center in the Donetsk direction hit a radar station and a launcher of the S-300 air defence system.
🙏🇺🇦 Zelensky: In the last week alone, Russia used more than 1,720 strike drones, nearly 1,300 guided bombs, and more than 100 missiles. In three months of winter, Russians launched more than 14,670 KABs, 738 missiles, and almost 19,000 strike drones.
“Meanwhile, operators from the Signum unit are destroying Russian infantry and military logistics in the forests.”
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3mfykdkrwac2q
As expected, they wanted to go under in a fireworks display.
The ground invasion is not far away – the citizens of Iran.
In a few weeks, it will be over but the regime will fire off everything they have.
Surprised that no ship has sunk yet.
China’s radar was useless – this is a Nagasaki against China.
A little further up you have a burning ship. Whether it will sink remains to be seen, but they have definitely attacked it.
“Alice the Russia version of Alexa – converted to Islam in Dubai. In one of the local stores, they noticed a “sister” of the Russian speaker – she understands Arabic and easily switches to Russian. At the same time, the voice assistant costs about three times less than its domestic counterpart.
Dubai is a Russian den of iniquity and is due a kinetic and fiscal spanking – for being a sponsor of war and safe harbour to war criminals.”
Forgot – now a terrorist attack campaign will follow in the West, bombings, shootings, murders of high-profile individuals, and so on.
The regime has activated all its terrorist cells and is paying the gangs and clans in cash.
I also suspect that there will be terrorist attacks. It will probably be mainly against American and Israeli targets, but it could just as easily be completely random.
Putin is trying to score political points with those who stand on Iran’s side.
“⚡️ Update: Putin sends condolences over Khamenei’s death in Israeli-US strikes. “In our country, Ayatollah Khamenei will be remembered as an outstanding statesman who made a huge contribution to the development of the friendly Russian-Iranian relations,” the Russian leader said.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3mfyjx27gtc2o
Supporting the attack on Iran, the hydra disappears, it would be as good for MENA as a collapsed Russia would be for us.
It would be absolutely good if the regime in Iran finally falls.
For me, it depends a bit on how many innocent people will have to lose their lives before we get there. It’s easy to sit at a distance and be completely positive when it’s not oneself or one’s relatives who have to pay the price.
“Assessors fear that this weekend’s attacks on Iran could lead to major disruptions in both the extraction and delivery of natural gas, which is expected to result in price increases.
Swedish households may also be affected by the higher prices, at least indirectly. Germany uses gas to produce electricity, notes Nibe’s energy economist Claes Hemberg for Expressen.
– Somewhere around 10-20 öre higher electricity prices can be expected.
At the same time, he emphasizes that the weather is starting to get warmer, which is likely to prevent the price increase from being a shock.”
https://omni.se/energiekonomen-rakna-med-10-20-ore-hogre-elpris/a/wrA0e5
Who knew exactly what would happen and when? 🧐
“The betting on when the US would strike against Iran increased in activity on the betting site Polymarket before the attack. Six specific accounts earned around 1 million dollars – equivalent to over 9 million Swedish kronor – on the betting. Bloomberg writes this with reference to an analysis from Bubblemaps.
Several bets were placed just hours before the first explosions were heard in Tehran.
All six accounts were started in February and have only bet on when American military strikes will occur, according to the news agency.
According to blockchain experts looking at it, the procedure follows the pattern of insider trading. Similar patterns could be seen before the US arrested Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro in January.”
https://omni.se/sex-polymarket-konton-tjanade-miljon-pa-dubiost-iran-bet/a/3pEXJA
The stock exchanges have now opened for trading in several places in the Middle East, and the weekend’s dramatic escalation in the conflict between the USA, Israel, and Iran is leaving its clear mark.
The main indexes in both Cairo and Saudi Arabia fell around 5 percent in the initial trading, before recovering somewhat.
Tadawul in Saudi Arabia reached its lowest level in almost three years during the morning, according to Tradingview. A couple of hours later, the broad index Tasi was down over 2 percent.
All sectors weigh on the index – except for the energy sector, where the Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco is up over 2.5 percent.
Even the stock exchanges in the Western world are expected to open in the red tomorrow.
“We are monitoring the situation, but an initial and potentially short-term reaction should be negative with a flight to safer assets,” writes Jon Arnell, Chief Investment Officer at von Euler & Partners, in an email to TT.
On Wall Street, Natixis strategist John Briggs expects a sharp turn towards safe havens. The strategy of “hide first, ask later” is likely to apply, he says.
– The scale of the attacks and the Iranian retaliation is greater than what the market anticipated, he tells Bloomberg.
“❗️Strikes by drones of the main department of unmanned systems of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine ‘🇺🇦Phoenix’ on two 🇷🇺Russian tanks.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mfymr35zhk2v
I endorse MXT’s analysis and feeling about it all. In short, one hopes that the world has improved a bit now, but one worries that they have wet themselves……
Regarding Trump’s motives, I have something in the back of my mind that bothers me, just because I like to understand connections, NOT because it’s any kind of excuse or the like: Wasn’t it so that one of the assassination attempts (the golf course), there were rumors that Iran was behind it?? And even if it was just a rumor, it’s enough that Trump heard the rumor for it to tip the scales.
Johan, do you remember?
It is true that there are connections to Iran regarding the man who was arrested in 2024. He had written some text about how, according to Iran, it was allowed to kill Trump (or something similar).
Then there is another investigation in the US from the same year regarding attempts to murder Trump.
https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/justice-department-announces-murder-hire-and-related-charges-against-irgc-asset-and-two
Not impossible at all that Trump has been influenced by this.
Swedish editorial pages focus on the political situation in Europe on Sunday with the war in Ukraine in the background. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán is running a campaign full of exaggerations and scare propaganda where the Ukrainian struggle for freedom is portrayed as wasted. Brussels is seen as the real enemy and Orbán is supported by the Trump administration, writes Dagens Nyheter.
“It’s a dark trio: Orbán, Putin, and Trump forming a pact to crush Europe,” the newspaper writes, noting that the Hungarians have a chance to vote out the prime minister in the spring election.”