09:17
Yes, when it goes quiet it’s not because it’s calm. I also don’t find much new.
Has the Russian stock market or index before opening dropped 34%?
That says oceans about what Russia thinks about this war?
Even though this was the most expected invasion of the century, at least I thought Putin had some double bluff or hidden purpose.
Going all in and trying to take over all of Ukraine is madness.
If it ends with him conquering Ukraine east of the Dnieper and retreating from western Ukraine, that would be some kind of reasonable goal.
The Ukrainians are not dumb enough not to fight for every meter and hope for Russian loss or Western intervention. It should be enough if there are too many civilian casualties so that the West has a “casus belli” to establish dominance in the air and stop the invasion over a couple of days by blowing away all Russian ground forces.
I personally think these thermobaric weapons are a bit of Putin’s ace up his sleeve and that’s why they went straight to ground invasion and no real preliminary bombardment since they can have a big effect on fixed defensive positions and can break through the first ring of defense relatively quickly.
The decision will probably be battle in depth and how motivated the Ukrainians are but they should have prepared for platoon-level fighting with anti-tank weapons over the whole area as well as defense of the cities which will be very difficult to invade.
Logically, it should come to a complete stop after a few days of Russian advance?
After that, at least I want to see Ukraine into the EU and NATO as well as Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO membership.
That should be a non-issue.
If Ukraine takes this hit for the team, it’s the least one can do to welcome them into the gang.
Then they are an incredibly rich country that with a little Western help can become prosperous.
09:21
The nuclear weapons are probably what’s a bit worrying.
I told my wife that now we apply all sanctions, yes.
She answered – idiotic because then they have nothing to lose anymore.
The steps were – some sanctions for the recognition of Donbass and full sanctions at invasion and then Russia can still escalate with nuclear weapons.
What else does the West have that would be deterrent?
One can hope that the USA has sneaked in Patriots covering all of Ukraine but nuclear weapons can also be delivered on the ground.
09:43
A reflection,
All the information available about the preliminary bombardment I think shows “scattered showers” rather than a traditional Russian preliminary bombardment where they wipe out kilometer squares on the map.
The videos that exist show some smoke columns here and there and I remember when Desert Shield started it was more intense.
If Russia has now mobilized all artillery, why haven’t they just fired everything?
It is in Ukraine’s interest to get as much media attention as possible from the Russian invasion so if there had been heavy preliminary bombardment it should have come out?
Or is it as you write that right now it is total electronic warfare and we simply get no information?
10:18
Your 10:07 post, very encouraging 🙂
If Ukraine can stop the invasion completely on its own, they probably have saved the world from a major war.
There is no USA to blame, only Putin’s and his entourage’s incompetence that has plunged Russia into the abyss and maybe we will see a much-needed popular uprising in Russia.
10:19
Yes, a priority for Ukraine should be to get maximum media attention.
11:21
If I understand this correctly, the Russian attack on Kharkiv has almost stalled east and north of the city.
In Luhansk and Donetsk the rebels have started advancing on foot to the west and they probably won’t get far.
Russian preliminary bombardment was a minor joke.
The impression I get is a half-hearted attempt at invasion?
Gives me a bit of Hitler vibes when he sat in his bunker and ordered divisions to attack that existed on paper but in reality consisted of a few hundred men.
Has it gone so far that everyone in Russia is following this charade fully aware that it will fail?
Putin says – unleash the Iskander cloud.
They fire their 50 Iskanders at targets chosen by dice, lean back and say they have done their part?
If now Russia is plunging into economic ruin for this joke of an invasion, the leadership is completely disconnected from reality.
I haven’t really trusted Cornu’s mocking descriptions of how bad the Russian army and Russia are but it seems to be true.
11:28
Has anyone heard from Putin?
Since the speech was pre-recorded he had a couple of days to do what he planned, what was that?
Is he now sitting in a bunker with a well-paid Spetsnaz brigade that has gotten a couple of million SEK each in a bank in Bern?
11:30
Yes, a blockade of Russian ships past Denmark should bite…
11:47
Now a lot of videos are coming up with rolling Russian armor and place names from various Twitter accounts.
Like some small hole 25km inside Ukraine’s border and full speed on the vehicles.
How far from the border is/was Ukraine’s first line of defense one can guess, it should be possible to discuss now that the Russians have driven into it?
The question is whether these filmed advances are because they have broken through Ukrainian defense at those points or if it is before they have driven into/are stuck in it.
Ukraine should also have focused on certain areas and lighter defense in others but in e.g. Kharkiv there seem to be heavy fighting already outside the city.
If anyone has a link to a map showing Russian advance please post it in the thread.
12:07
Seems like Russian units have reached the Dnieper far south, Nova Kakhovka.
Kharkiv is the stop.
What does it look like east and west of Kharkiv, I can’t find anything posted?
A possible problem could be that Ukraine holds cities like islands and that Russia manages to reach the Dnieper which might demoralize units east of the Dnieper.
However, these islands are excellent for defense in depth for Ukraine and they have, as said, had years to prepare.
12:10
Seems like Russian units are rolling over the Dnieper towards Kherson in a strange mix of vehicles?
12:21
Cornu –
Russian units seem to have rolled over the Dnieper at Kherson I think the videos show?
Then you have a potential air landing just west of Kiev.
In eastern Ukraine, there is actually no information on how the advance is going east and west of Kharkiv, but in the city of Kharkiv, the defense seems to be working well.
There is an advance towards Malitopol, but nothing from Mauriopol or landings as described.
12:38
The question is probably how the defense of eastern Ukraine looks?
If the Russians roll past Kharkov towards Dnepr, it is a problem, but if they have gotten stuck along the entire line at the height of Kharkov, then Putin’s remaining lifespan is like that of a mayfly.
Has Ukraine concentrated everything on Kharkov or is there punch elsewhere?
Dnipro looks like a given hedgehog but it is worrying that the Russians have crossed the Dnepr at Kherson.
13:09
During the air landing towards Hostomel, the helicopters flew relatively irresponsibly.
That should mean that Russia has air supremacy and that Ukraine’s AA capacity is low?
Consider here that this was 15 minutes from Kiev and a prioritized area.
A wild guess is that we will see more VDV landings behind Ukrainian lines during the day, especially in eastern Ukraine which probably has less fighter aircraft and AA.
13:12
Now I am an extremely happy amateur 🙂 but thought they could have flown lower and faster.
The fighter aircraft that have been filmed over Kiev, do you know if it was Ukrainian or Russian?
High risk as you wrote to airland all the way down near Kiev if you do not get armor propulsion within a reasonable time.
09:03
Yes, Nordstream was a good sanction and preventing Russian ships through the strait would be nice.
However, difficult to maintain because Russia will probably quickly move warships there and threaten with extra everything.
The oligarchs’ assets outside Russia will probably be lost but I wonder how serious they are about that?
Logically, every oligarch should have their assets frozen but it seems to be only about a dozen.
Russia naturally turns to China but if they become the scapegoat in this recession that the USA is probably working towards, they won’t be much help.