12:02
So Kiev Independent says that Ukrainian troops have pushed back some Russian force “on Kiev’s west bank”.
Does that mean they have reached the river on the western side, exactly where in Kiev, suburb or central, is not clear.
Everything is videos but it looks like fighting has reached Kiev’s suburbs also east of the river?
Then the two attack wedges west and east of Kiev should have reached Kiev?
There were also reports of fighting south of Kiev, highly unconfirmed, but it should be part of the attack plan to encircle Kiev if possible?
12:09
An observation from several videos is that the Ukrainians are extremely restrained in how they treat their prisoners of war.
At most, they stand and shout at them for a while.
Throughout the invasion, we have also seen civilians standing on the sidelines watching the advance.
Of course, Putin has mobilized Chechen units that are quite notorious, and what happens behind the Russian lines when Omon and Rosgvardia roll in we do not know.
Then long-range strikes hit completely indiscriminately and it will get much worse.
But so far, this is a “civilized behavior” mainly shown by the Ukrainians considering they have been invaded.
12:15
The Russians first attack with third-tier troops who test the Ukrainians’ defense and then artillery and advance with the better units.
However, they have deployed a lot of VDV and deep reconnaissance which has been fought against and these are their best units.
Spetznaz have also gone in the front line for sabotage and infiltration it seems.
When they immediately made progress in the south, a real riff-raff rolled over the first bridge over the Dnieper, lots of passenger cars and T64s, like a real migration.
VDV came first the day after and the naval infantry after two days on the southern front.
12:56
It seems there are airborne landings deep in western Ukraine as well as south of Kiev, Vasylkiv.
Airborne landings deep behind create concern, “the enemy is everywhere,” but I interpret it as the Ukrainian people almost everywhere have taken up arms, police, border guards, private militias, national guard, security guards, and basically everyone with a weapon.
That should mean that lightly armed VDV can be met anywhere.
13:00
This video of a captured Russian presumed T64 shows terrible condition so it should reasonably have been third-tier.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1497524209228079107?cxt=HHwWhoCz2bCVo8gpAAAA
13:09
Official statement confirms that they are trying to encircle Kiev.
The last sentence is interesting, “had no reserves left”.
I think everything will boil down to how many rested battalions Putin can throw in. Those who have already participated in combat will be very difficult to get back to the front line, I guess.
The other is when he has exhausted VDV, Spetznaz, naval infantry, and reconnaissance which have the highest combat value.
The US has stated that Russia has used 2/3 of mobilized forces, the question is whether it was the best or the worst?
Now they also have coordinates for Ukrainian positions and are bringing forward artillery but Ukraine will also get targeting data from the US in real time from now on.
https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1497520790429847552/photo/1
13:20
Unconfirmed but it seems the rebels/eastern Russians have taken Vodiane.
A quick look at the map suggests Mariupol risks being encircled but should, as said, have prepared a very spiky hedgehog for a long time.
Highly unconfirmed that Russian advance has reached Zaporozhye, looks like VDV and Spetznaz.
Different reports about Kherson but the latest seems to be that it is in Ukrainian hands.
13:50
Unconfirmed but it seems the rebels/eastern Russians have taken Vodiane.
A quick look at the map suggests Mariupol risks being encircled but should, as said, have prepared a very spiky hedgehog for a long time.
Highly unconfirmed that Russian advance has reached Zaporozhye, looks like VDV and Spetznaz.
Different reports about Kherson but the latest seems to be that it is in Ukrainian hands.
13:50
An observation from several videos is that the Ukrainians are extremely restrained in how they treat their prisoners of war.
At most, they stand and shout at them for a while.
Throughout the invasion, we have also seen civilians standing on the sidelines watching the advance.
Of course, Putin has mobilized Chechen units that are quite notorious, and what happens behind the Russian lines when Omon and Rosgvardia roll in we do not know.
Then long-range strikes hit completely indiscriminately and it will get much worse.
But so far, this is a “civilized behavior” mainly shown by the Ukrainians considering they have been invaded.
15:52
There is some worrying information now,
– large-scale deployment of artillery.
– complaints that Ukraine hides its fighting units in residential areas (as an excuse to deploy artillery).
– Putin in bunker.
– gas masks to the rebels in the east.
– information about an “enormous false flag”.
– offensive that has stalled.
At best, we have the obliteration of kilometer squares on maps in cities with artillery and/or some isolated nuclear weapon as a false flag.
I can imagine they might use the tactical nuclear weapon in Luhansk or Donetsk.
At worst, several tactical nuclear weapons to try to break Ukraine’s will to resist.
One can only hope that individual colonels and generals simply ignore orders and do not launch their nuclear weapons.
What could the West’s response be to nuclear weapons?
If you have such a mad dictator as Putin who sends 200,000 men straight to death in Ukraine, he could very well launch nukes against cities in the West.
Now one really has to hope that the US has ignored the peace movement and positioned plenty of Patriots in Europe.
We will not avoid radioactive fallout.
16:51
It seems the Russians are going after Mariupol, hundreds of tanks on the way in that direction.
Why they do not bypass the city I do not understand?
Mykolaiv also has videos with gunfire.
I find it hard to see that the Ukrainian eastern front could retreat west of the Dnieper without a massacre on the roads.
It is probably almost better to stay in place and switch to guerrilla warfare on a very large scale or withdraw organized meter by meter towards the Dnipro.
17:06
In the south, Russia is achieving the successes they expected along the entire front.
Looking at the map and how the advance is going, I am of the opinion that Russian endurance will at most be enough to take eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper and if they are lucky, and then they must try to freeze the conflict.
Kiev will become a proper flytrap and instead of pushing further south or west, they are throwing everything they have into Kiev and will get nowhere.
There are still battles in Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Odessa. Considering that the Russians have had their naval infantry here and had outrageous luck on the first day, it shows Ukrainian strength that they have not come as far west of the Dnieper as east of it.
Ukraine has taken enormous losses trying to reinforce Kherson and Mykolaiv but may have gotten enough to hold back the bridgehead and it might be thought that the Russians are focusing east of the Dnieper instead?
Now there is one cloud of concern left, and that is that Belarus has promised to send its army south quite soon.
However, they have just had a near-death experience for the president, and he might not be so eager to sit in his palace completely undefended?
11:37
In Belgorod, artillery and MTLB with Z markings are being brought forward.
North of Kiev, V markings have started to appear.
What does this mean?
I thought they started with Z and then the second wave was V, etc., but that they would have Z in reserve around Kharkov seems unlikely given the intensity of the fighting there?
What I am thinking is that if you can figure out the markings, you can figure out how much of their reserves they have used.