11:04
It’s probably time to evaluate Russian strategy here (if we disregard that the whole operation is madness…).
As I see it, they want to take a bigger city because they count on it being demoralizing for Ukraine, so instead of attacking in depth and bypassing larger cities which they then encircle, besiege, and clear up with artillery and third-rate troops + special forces, they have gotten stuck at larger cities along the entire front except in the south.
The southern front seems to have broken all the rules and in that way had incredible luck and achieved full advance, but now someone higher up has decided that they shall take Mariupol, so hundreds of tanks were/are on their way there.
With some luck, this could also be the end for the southern offensive as it drains it of operational units.
Otherwise, it feels like the only card Russia can play is to bet everything on taking eastern Ukraine up to the Dnipro with the help of the southern offensive and try to encircle Ukrainian units in the east and force some kind of peace.
I see it as impossible for the units in eastern Ukraine to try to retreat west of the Dnipro; it will be a bloodbath.
If Russia fails with this, it will be a full retreat to Russian territory that should apply within not too long.
11:14
The media also tries to show the humanitarian perspective but it instead becomes “all Ukrainians flee Ukraine”.
As I see it, almost every man has stayed and is looking for a weapon, the will to defend is enormous and that must start to be described and communicated, and as many have said, it is mostly this blog that does that.
Countries in Europe should be jealous of Ukraine for having such a population with this integrity.
And now the blood really boils – SVT “here Russian troops roll into Kharkiv”.
I see nothing in my channels that indicates Kharkiv has fallen, SVT is actually doing Russia’s bidding here by trying to claim that a larger city has fallen.
I understand that we live in a democracy and that one can say what one wants, but if one has a moral compass tilted towards Russia after this, one should not be allowed to receive tax money. I can only hope this is followed up.
11:36
I actually don’t think so, Russia has probably recently, 1-2 days ago, rotated in all its operational units and is not breaking through anywhere except in the south.
What remains is Belarus and an offensive in western Ukraine which can get tough especially if Ukraine has moved reserves south to hold Kherson.
The First Guards Tank Army around Kharkiv has been fighting continuously since the first day of the offensive.
Now many, including the blogger, have warned about a low blow and that is not included.
For example, tactical nuclear weapons against all cities that hold out, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kiev, but that is such a strong escalation that it cannot be calculated.
Kharkiv can very well fall but then Ukraine has had a long time to make Dnipro into a nice little hedgehog.
11:42
If Belarus decides to go all in, and it does not yet seem obvious that it will, it is a knife-edge to balance on attacking south along Poland’s eastern border and there could, for example, be “volunteers” who choose to operate from Poland and strike the flank?
Or that they make a mistake and ethnically cleanse a Polish village.
Anyway, it is my clear opinion that then Belarus has burned itself for all eternity.
They have, of course, already done so but can try to claim that they were occupied by Russia, kind of, and maybe get off lighter than Russia when the bill is to be paid.
11:45
In Irpin outside Kiev, Ukraine has taken terrain during daytime it seems as there are videos.
This means they have offensive capacity and dare to do this in daylight.
There was someone here in the thread who felt that so far they had retaken terrain at night.
11:50
Don’t know if this has been posted but it’s a couple of hours old and from fighting in Kharkiv.
It is Ukrainian units against Russian Spetsnaz or similar.
I see no lack of will to defend at all among the Ukrainians. It is calm, measured, and calculated and a well-functioning unit after a couple of days of fighting.
11:59
This Russian troop was probably a column that was quickly defeated.
See this among others, maybe not the same unit but a whole line of special forces jeeps.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497845325242982403?cxt=HHwWhoCzueWYtckpAAAA
It is the perspective one chooses that decides, the gray shade.
Instead of “Russian troops inside Kharkiv” one could write “Russian special forces completely massacred when they tried to reach inside Kharkiv, the will to defend is enormous”.
Right?
12:28
No, it is almost incredible that Ukraine’s air force has survived. Yesterday I think they flew 35 missions or similar.
In the south, it almost looks like they quickly knocked out the defense, if one may guess with infiltrating special forces and then basically rolled over the defenders on intact bridges. Ukrainian artillery was knocked out directly outside their barracks and that they were not in firing position is almost a dereliction of duty but it’s too late to complain about that now.
After that, Ukraine has had its reinforcements knocked out on the way when they tried to get to the combat area.
West of the Dnipro, they have probably gotten reinforcements forward, Mykolaiv is absolutely not taken and Kherson changes hands all the time.
East of the Dnipro, Ukraine seems to have difficulty getting its reinforcements forward and that is probably where they spread out like a fan and sniff around Zaporizhzhia.
However, at least yesterday it looked like they shifted focus and intended to try to roll over Mariupol which probably must be considered a real Hitler move. It would have been enough to encircle Mariupol and continue north to exploit this breakthrough.
Now the naval infantry is deployed and the VDV they had available down there. Haven’t seen videos yet of reinforcements but everything they don’t fly in probably takes a couple of days to roll down to Crimea.
13:05
Unconfirmed but a Russian all-in against Kiev seems to be emerging by Monday at the latest.
If it involves Belarusian units is unknown.
Strategically, this is almost a Hitler move?
Instead of striking deep and encircling Kiev, they are betting everything on taking out a veritable fortress with we don’t know how many very angry armed Ukrainians.
14:08
Interesting development, yesterday hundreds of tanks were seen heading towards Mariupol.
Today there are reports that an attack on Mariupol was repelled and, as usual, heavy Russian losses.
This armor could have pushed north and is probably considered yet another Hitler moment for the Russian staff.
14:24
The Liveuamap below should be considered conservative/lagging and they have marked an area beyond Melitopol as under Russian control.
They have also marked that Kherson lies right on the front line so west of the Dnipro there is not much movement.
https://liveuamap.com/
I interpret this as a critical situation for the old ceasefire line against the Donetsk/Luhansk rebels if attacked from the south. Volnovakha seems to have been taken by the rebels so there are only a few kilometers left until the southern offensive meets the Donetsk rebels.
If they start rolling up the old ceasefire line, it would free up rebel forces plus the regular Russian units operating in that area to strike northwest, ultimately towards Poltava and south of Kharkiv.
Now, as mentioned, the Russians seem to have put a lot into Mariupol and may have drained the offensive reserves so it is slowing down, but it remains to be seen if they have stolen the entire playbook from Hitler.
15:33
According to Liveuamap, Putin is holding a meeting in the Kremlin with top brass. I was thinking he would be sitting in a bunker in the Urals with his oligarchs?
Was it confirmed or was it just a rumor that the Ukrainian government had fled?
By the way, I suspect the plan to get into Poland was something like the gold reserve and other things they wanted to save from the Russians.
15:35
According to UAMap,
”Kharkiv is under control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, there is a sweep, invaders are surrendering en masse – Head of the military-civil administration”.
A couple of hours old, so it seems the morning’s attack attempt on Kharkiv went badly and that Ukraine has had the capacity to launch a local offensive?
15:40
All together, defcon 1 for the nuclear troops, the air force is taking detours 600 km outside Ukraine’s border, rumors of a big false flag and now a motorcade from the Kremlin.
Meanwhile the offensive has stalled in classic Stalingrad style.
I have thought that the place for a missile with a tactical nuclear warhead is Donetsk or Luhansk and that it is launched from captured territory in Ukraine.
”Ukraine has fired nuclear weapons at Russia”!
Alternatively a tactical nuclear weapon in Kharkiv and they blame a trigger-happy general who is arrested and sent to The Hague the same day?
15:47
Belarus’s joke of a dictator has now made several statements ”we have no military in Ukraine, Russia doesn’t need our help”, ”we accidentally fired some missiles at the start by mistake”, etc. etc.
This can only be interpreted in two ways, Lukashenko shows himself to be the friend who betrayed. Or his entire army will cross the border by tomorrow at the latest.
If so, Ukraine is fighting three countries…
I also think it seems like local defense has mobilized in huge numbers so the Russians can probably forget about all major cities without changing the rules of the game.
They have low offensive capability.
15:57
Videos of air defense and artillery in Berdyansk so that city seems to be in Russian hands.
It is within firing range of Mariupol but apart from a large column of armored vehicles heading there yesterday and today the city’s authorities reported having repelled the attack, it has been relatively quiet.
16:05
In the longer term, there are strong forces that always want war and to make their blood money so it should be in the interest of all sane leaders to de-escalate this as soon as the opportunity arises.
Somewhere in this conflict there is a common ground that all involved could live with.
It has not yet appeared and I think it is a bit early.
If things go worse for Ukraine they might be tempted to give up the eastern parts in exchange for an end to the war.
If things go worse for Russia they might be tempted to be forgiven in exchange for Putin’s head on a platter and democratic reforms or similar.
Option two would be ideal…
The EU should consider inviting Ukraine to the EU and find a way to cooperate economically with Russia that everyone would benefit from.
Then maybe we can avoid Cold War 2.0.
16:12
Regarding Belarus, it seems the protest movement has really started today.
This would reinforce the assumption that Belarus will not send its army south as it will be needed at home to shoot and torture demonstrators.
16:26
There you go, now the rats are starting to get a little worried and think about how they can wriggle out of this unharmed,
https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1497944338457939973?cxt=HHwWisC-sY-c4skpAAAA
16:28
And now for today’s best news – the Chechen mercenaries have suffered huge losses, the battalion that was in Ukraine, and they have retreated back to DNR territory 🙂
Now there are probably 10,000 more on the way but Kadyrov probably has some self-preservation instinct and doesn’t want to lose his life insurance in a doomed war so maybe they will take their time?
17:03
Röpcke is quite conservative, map below,
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1497955971007750144/photo/1
A scenario I have left out that he raised, that Donetsk and Luhansk oblast go to the Russians followed by peace.
21:06
It is quite quiet about Russian advances but much more about pre-emptive strikes in Kherson, Kharkiv, Kiev and videos of columns advancing.
If one may speculate, a major attack will come Monday or Tuesday against Mariupol, Kherson/Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Kiev.
If that balloon bursts into nothing useful it will be extremely difficult to be a star-studded officer in the Russian staff managing the Ukraine front.
10:11
Without having gone through this morning’s messages, Russia should now have deployed a considerable part of its operational units.
If Belarus joins the war, it could get lively in the NW for a while, but there should not be too many days of offensive capacity left in the Russian units.
Wrote yesterday that I guess Russian capacity at most is enough to take eastern Ukraine up to east of the Dnipro if the southern offensive continues with the same bingo luck as so far.
Ukraine has had difficulty moving forward reserves that have been shot down on the way.
Within a couple of days, they should also have used up the VDV, reconnaissance, naval infantry, and Spetsnaz who have been fighting continuously.