09:40
Russian central bank interest rate 20%, the Ruble is crashing hard, bank runs, stock market closures…
Many have said that Russia does not care about sanctions, they have USD reserves to the ceiling, etc. To me, it looks like it was Russian propaganda and that the Russian economy is now biting the dust quite directly.
Then someone has found links between Gazprom and the NGOs that have pushed for the shutdown of nuclear power, was anyone even surprised since these NGOs had no problem with Russian gas.
Something the Russians have been good at is spreading an image of themselves as awesome to be able to threaten their way to advantages when the reality was this.
09:44
Russia is a damn rogue economy and I don’t think it’s entirely wrong to expropriate the oligarchs’ assets.
However, I would like to see that at a later stage, when there has been a regime change, these funds are returned to the city treasury and not remain in the countries that confiscated them.
09:54
Regarding Russian materiel and especially MBTs – we have not seen Armata at all, we have not seen many T90s knocked out, the majority are T72s followed by T80s and some T64s I think I have seen. This means that Russian tanks are from the 60s and 70s and completely obsolete.
As I understand it, this is because T80 and T90 were manufactured in Ukraine so the Russians do not have spare parts and that Armata is completely useless.
Really quite incomprehensible how a country like Russia cannot have a more modern MBT than this and it is actually quite telling of how the country functions.
BTR, BMP and BMD appear to be in later versions, at least 3, and they have their Tigr armored vehicles so for IFVs there have been more modern models.
The worst in the IFV category is probably the transport horse MTLB which has been seen here and there?
They have thrown in their VDV, naval infantry and Spetsnaz from all over Russia so if there were more modern tanks we would probably have seen them.
10:52
Yes, MTLB is a “transport horse” I wrote.
Then what I read about T80 and T90 was wrong.
Then the question becomes more interesting why we have not seen T90 in combat, are they holding back better-equipped units or do they not have these units in Ukraine.
Yes, Armata was delayed but there are examples and if you want to show that you are awesome you should have flexed them.
You have, for example, some company with TOS1 that is in Ukraine and other odd birds of which there are not many.
Then it almost seems most likely what Cornu says, that it simply does not work yet.
Now this got a bit off track but the question is that within all branches of the military there is modern equipment except for MBTs which I find quite remarkable since MBTs are still the backbone of the Russian doctrine and important for mobile warfare.
11:43
Your last paragraph, Cornu has always claimed that the Russians cannot invade anything.
In the West, we have been fed the great Russian threat for quite a while and from “credible” sources but this invasion shows an almost Soviet command structure where units have prepared orders that they follow and the ability to respond to unforeseen events is minimal + it takes a long time to change behavior.
There is a video of an alleged Spetsnaz platoon that is subjected to an ambush, they move forward dismounted and somewhat tactically but until the opening of fire they basically walk upright next to the vehicles, no type of leapfrogging or sectors to cover. These are supposed to be the best (right). I base that it is Spetsnaz on the Tigr vehicles so maybe wrong, could be reconnaissance or similar as well.
11:47
Your last paragraph, Cornu has always claimed that the Russians cannot invade anything.
In the West, we have been fed the great Russian threat for quite a while and from “credible” sources but this invasion shows an almost Soviet command structure where units have prepared orders that they follow and the ability to respond to unforeseen events is minimal + it takes a long time to change behavior.
There is a video of an alleged Spetsnaz platoon that is subjected to an ambush, they move forward dismounted and somewhat tactically but until the opening of fire they basically walk upright next to the vehicles, no type of leapfrogging or sectors to cover. These are supposed to be the best (right). I base that it is Spetsnaz on the Tigr vehicles so maybe wrong, could be reconnaissance or similar as well.
12:01
Those who have appeared in various media taking Russia’s perspective throughout this whole process leading up to the war should be exposed, I think. You can have whatever opinion you want in a democracy but if you have hidden motives they should come to the surface.
SVT has had a Russian perspective for quite a while and even during the first days of the war. Since they are supposed to be our most credible medium in the event of war, this should probably be corrected quite quickly. People tend to listen/believe the messenger they feel closest to and clearly SVT has interpreted a lot from a Russian perspective.
The environmental movement, peace movement and others that seem to have merged and have managed to knock out our electricity supply should be investigated in detail.
Also noted that Samnytt probably got their first days’ information directly from the Kremlin…
13:12
On one hand, it is reported that Ukraine has captured Russian soldiers outside Zaporizhzhia and that they have retaken Tomak.
This is the southern offensive which, if so, has been stopped roughly where maps have recently marked it.
Whether this is due to the Hitler-style decision to go all-in on Mariupol so they did not supply resources to the advance is unclear but that Ukraine has now managed to strike Russian units also east of the Dnieper is significant because this is the only front section where the Russians have had progress.
If it also stops there, the front east of the Dnieper will hold and Russia has absolutely zero negotiating capital. They will simply have to retreat and then try to negotiate their way back to a normal situation from the very deep hole they have now dug themselves into.
We have also not seen Belarus’s participation in the invasion and there are many protests in Belarus now, so with a bit of luck we might get a spontaneous palace coup there.
13:15
We can just replace Ukraine with Romania 🙂
Ukraine is a country with problems but its industry, agriculture and raw materials are enormous and they would be a positive addition to the EU.
Right now the EU has taken liberties beyond what many have perceived the EU’s role should be and that is probably where the problems with the Visegrad countries and the East lie?
They refuse to accept Muslim immigrants because they have been conquered by Muslims, for example, and some other things that mean we do not have a shared view on issues.
13:27
Several different videos of MLRS artillery attacks on residential areas in Kharkiv.
We have not heard much about force buildup around Kharkiv but a major assault on Kharkiv should presumably be coordinated with the expected attacks on Kiev, one might guess?
Now the Potemkin facade is falling apart badly, the liberation of Ukraine is now the worst kind of artillery shelling of residential areas and the TOS-1 that is being moved forward towards Mariupol is presumably intended to be used…
14:01
Considering the delay in the Russian staff/leadership’s reactions to changes, there are probably a couple more days of renewed attacks but after that this should reasonably be over?
It does not feel like Ukraine will give them much in negotiations given the situation today but rather demand Donbass back and war reparations?
14:50
I interpret the negotiations and today’s relative calm except for artillery shelling of Kharkiv, Kiev and Mariupol as a Russian ruse and under the pretense of peace talks they are bringing up reinforcements against the above cities and will attack by tomorrow morning at the latest. Tuesday and Wednesday will be really lively and then the smoke will clear and hopefully the air will go out of the Russian balloon.
Considering how the Belarusian units seem to be equipped, infantry Soviet-style, a southern offensive from Belarus will probably get stuck relatively quickly as well.
14:54
Now the EU has responded that the whole EU must approve Ukraine and that there are different opinions among the member states which I interpret as them not being entirely thrilled about the issue.
What I find second most interesting after seeing a full Russian offensive war fail on day one is how they without blinking would have let Ukraine fall if Russia had performed better and that they are not thinking in terms of tying Ukraine to the EU yet.
You could give them the whole package with free trade, for example, without free movement during a transition period, a special case?
I think like this – The president goes out on all media channels waving a signed paper “if you win the war we get to join the EU”, what a morale boost!
16:03
I thought about that too when I saw the ambush on the Spetsnaz/recon platoon with Tigr.
They were dismounted and strolled quite relaxed next to the vehicles so if the vehicles are shot out the platoon can retreat with some losses.
I have a feeling that they are trying to knock out the armor/vehicle and that the large losses in vehicles do not directly translate into the same losses in personnel and that there should then be quite a lot of involuntary infantry.
Offensive capacity should however have decreased significantly since the vehicles have been knocked out, I think.
If Ukraine had taken larger numbers of prisoners of war I think we would have heard about it in connection with the loss reports.
They have been quick to confirm prisoners when that has happened.
22:31
So what worked perfectly well in the Kazakhstan – Azerbaijan conflict about half a year ago can be run again and get full effect.
Even the same brand of drones…
Previously it was Ukraine that had its columns of reinforcements shot down by Russian ground attacks and helicopters.
Now it seems completely unlikely that Ukraine manages to strike on a large scale against Russian convoys with at least drones.
The country that should have air supremacy sees itself defeated by Turkish drones…
09:30
Yesterday was, under the circumstances, considered calm?
They have filmed a huge convoy heading towards Kiev and if one were to guess, there is a similar convoy heading towards Kharkiv.
Artillery has opened fire during the night on both cities.
Reports also that Belarus has lost all sense and entered the war from today, Monday…
Mariupol reported that they repelled an “overrun attempt” on Sunday. Russia has deployed (parts of) the naval infantry brigade there and large numbers of tanks have been seen heading there, and they are now within artillery range.
In light of the above, perhaps one can guess that the Russians’ peace overtures are not very serious?
It will be a couple of terrible days for Ukraine but when these offensives have ebbed, it should be time for a peace overture that at best can become Putin’s head on a platter in exchange for Russia withdrawing and everything being reset.
I still hold the opinion that east of the Dnieper is in a critical situation due to the southern offensive working its way north, they are sniffing around Zaporizhzhia, Mariupol is soon surrounded and there is likely an imminent threat that they can strike the old ceasefire line from behind.