11:17
I may be a bit too optimistic about Ukraine’s offensive capability but the Russians have shown an almost pathological willingness to throw everything against well-fortified cities and if they make another attempt with what they have left before the reserves (third-tier) have arrived, it could very well create a vacuum that Ukraine can exploit.
The Russians do not seem to directly fortify captured terrain but sit in their vehicles and freeze so it could go very quickly in the opposite direction I guess.
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In the south it is trickier but assuming the Russians focus heavily on Mariupol and Mykolaiv, there is a relatively good chance they will not make further advances north as they tie up their resources there. Disrupting supply in the south is very easy as it must come via Kerch – Crimea – bridges – roads – Dnipro or by boat and everything can be reached by drones which the Russians have not yet learned to shoot down. I therefore think it is only a matter of time before they roll up the southern front as well just like at Kharkiv.
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Important, however, that there is no secure link between the Donbass rebels and the southern offensive but I believe they thought so until recently.
11:29
Regarding World War II, Hitler could never have won it even in the best of worlds. That he got as far as he did was pure luck – he bet everything on red all the time and the generals were competent and did their best.
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Putin bet everything on red but even in the best of worlds he could never have won this war with what he mobilized. Had he mobilized five times as much and done everything completely right, like was thought with air landings, pre-bombardment and massive tank attacks, it could have become a critical situation for Ukraine but a Pyrrhic victory as the sanctions would really bite and he would have suffered astronomical losses. What would he do after that, attack Poland or Finland, with what?
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I believe he coldly counted on the refugee crisis, stock market crash, electricity crisis and terror to force the West to push Ukraine to peace and that Ukraine itself would give up. Full-scale war was never part of the plan.
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Now there is only one way out of this, freeze the war, claim victory and that you took what you wanted and try to cling to power and live out your life as a dictator. One can only hope that Ukraine holds out here and that the EU does not start demanding EU membership conditions that they give up some territories to Russia because we start to chicken out…
15:10
I think broad layers are beginning to understand that they are to be regarded as pariahs for quite a long time due to this and that the only way to restore some kind of balance is to send the guilty to The Hague.
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Absolutely that Putin thought that electricity crisis, refugee crisis, financial crisis and whatever else he has triggered would paralyze the West.
This says something about how destructive they are for Europe, they have their fingers in most things.
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Just yesterday I heard Swedish Peace say the same words in the same sentence as Russia – if you send weapons they can end up in the hands of terrorists, don’t do that…
15:20
Looking at maps, all the northern attack wedges are heading towards Kiev which is good because then they stay there and die there.
The advances are also along the roads and it will be convoy 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 in the not too distant future since everyone is just pressing on towards Kiev.
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In the south there is still some advance and if Mariupol falls it could get lively down there. I guess they have some control of the areas behind the front in the south and are protected from east and west by the Dnipro and Donbass rebels so they only need to drive straight north and push Rosgvardia and Omon behind the front.
Why Ukraine has not blown up the bridge over Kerch yet I do not understand, it should be a priority night target or from an American stealth bomber?
17:42
It would be unfortunate if Ukraine does not have offensive capacity. According to analysts, they have lost 10% of their armor which is a manageable figure.
Go on the offensive with brigade size + national guard and others covering behind and on the sides.
It should work, if it does not work during the day because of aircraft, then do it at night.
Across the entire front.
21:17
Chinese media is embedded with the Russians
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1501188439529644034?cxt=HHwWhICz8dO7pdUpAAAA
11:10
I know this is much debated but right now I feel we are being overwhelmed in the media by –
-stock market crash due to Russia’s war, best with peace.
-electricity crisis due to Russia’s war, best with peace.
-food crisis due to Russia’s war, best with peace.
-refugee crisis due to Russia’s war, best with peace.
One can guess that Russia is starting to get seriously cold feet and is desperately looking for a way out here, give us Donbass and Crimea will soon be just Crimea. The media largely serves Russia’s interests and one has to thank Ukraine at least once a day for not giving in. If Russia freezes the conflict, they will continue to be a threat. If Putin is removed and Russia democratizes and has close trade with the EU, win for all.