20:50
Yes, Mariupol will become a Grozny, it is terrible to read that about a thousand civilians have been killed, one can only guess the number of wounded…
Now they had also mined the civilian evacuation route and fired on those trying to escape.
Mariupol will become history, I think, because the number of dead will be enormous.
The only thing you can really blame Ukraine for is that they never evacuated civilians, but I understand that they didn’t want to provoke the bear before the war started.
17:57
There was basically nothing of the Russians’ “renewed offensive.” It seems that they throw in units as they arrive in a glorified shooting range against intact Ukrainian brigades, so this can only end one way.
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Regarding Mariupol, I have probably reassessed the city’s ability to hold out. If there are four brigades dug in with highly motivated soldiers, Russia has a tough nut to crack here. They are sniffing around the outskirts, and I wrote somewhat sarcastically a week ago that the Russians would “storm the city and run over the defenders” when they deployed TOS-1 and 200-300 tanks.
After some reflection, I have concluded that it won’t work against this type of defenders; they are spread out over the entire area, and group size fights independently if needed but can cooperate up to brigade level. At the group level, they have machine guns, PSK, and anti-tank weapons, Javelins or our Panzerfausts. You can drive straight in, but it becomes a gigantic whack-a-mole that cannot be won. Then you have some kind of encirclement, but it buzzes like a swarm of bees around this encirclement that surely leaks like a sieve. I believe that mines, artillery targets, and all kinds of traps are less important than a dynamic and mobile defensive battle over the entire area all the time, day and night. If you keep that up, it will probably be quite impossible to take Mariupol within a reasonable time, say 2-3 weeks.