11:43
That said, the entire West should do a Ukraine and prepare for the worst because things really move fast and if Ukraine had bet on woke-peace-demilitarization-hand-hearts they would have been a Russian province a week ago.
11:53
There are no signs of an offensive from Belarus southwards towards Lviv. We are 2.5 weeks into this and Belarusian units are not participating in the war. This is significant and a sign of weakness.
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If you stop watching Swedish media and only watch Sky News, you get a decent picture. The expected final battle for Kiev has not even started. The Russians have not reached the city to date and of the “renewed attack” it mostly seems to have been some missiles and terror artillery, nothing that Ukraine cannot handle.
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Russia makes the lie itself blush, they have now in their liberation of Ukraine deployed large numbers of Arab/Muslim mercenaries who are completely ruthless and in occupied areas it is Hitler Germany 2.0, Lavrov lies all the time in all meetings and Western Russia-paid snakes try to push the opinion that Ukraine should seek peace. One must thank the gods that the Ukrainians are exactly Ukrainians. This terror should motivate the Ukrainians even more and is thus counterproductive, they have absolutely nothing to lose by throwing Russia out of exactly all of Ukraine.
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Yesterday there were rumors that there was a corridor to Mariupol, this should be priority one for Ukraine and if it hasn’t happened already, it will soon. Then they will roll up the entire Russian invasion with massive prisoner columns and captured material for a century. The Ukrainian army is basically intact with manageable losses and there are two tanks for every knocked-out one and 10 volunteers for every fallen soldier. Since the pressure has eased on the defense, they are surely preparing for a bigger offensive. Giving up Donbass and Crimea when you can humiliate Russia and create a geopolitical shift as well as the West’s eternal gratitude is probably not a difficult choice.
12:05
Just as Hitler could never have won World War II, Putin could never have won this war.
However, Hitler had outrageous luck mixed with a large portion of skill from his generals but Putin has completely on his own sabotaged everything and then his staff seem to have been real bunglers.
– by waiting out the Olympics, the combat value of mobilized units dropped significantly.
– by waiting out the Olympics, fuel and food disappeared on the black market.
– by being secretive, Russian units rolled into Ukraine like on vacation and were shot out on an assembly line.
– by waiting out the Olympics, there was a thaw.
– by misjudging the Ukrainians’ will to defend, they became reactive immediately.
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From now on it is only a question of when Ukraine has thrown out Russia and how big a pariah Russia becomes but if they had not made all these mistakes, they would probably have rolled over at least all of Eastern Ukraine and taken up to the Dnieper and encircled a large part of the Ukrainians at the ceasefire line and had some chips in the negotiations.
12:27
We KNOW now that Russia has sponsored “no to nuclear power” and previously that they have controlled the peace movement. This is not suspicion but fact.
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That the Left Party did not want to send weapons to Ukraine is such strong evidence that the party should be classified as a terrorist organization?
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We can furthermore guess that much of militant feminism, refugee crisis, class hatred, woke, LBQTHBZ, radical parties on all sides, Islamist parties, etc. All that crap that polarizes society is backed by Russia. China does not really have that interest but Russia has invested heavily in destabilization. Imagine if this now stopped 🙂
12:35
I don’t think so, China has a variety of ethnic groups and income disparities are astronomical and they have a speculative bubble that would make any European investment banker blush. I guessed that the USA would push China down in the coming crash but now maybe it was Russia instead.
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Russia is handled entirely on its own by Ukraine. If China goes for Taiwan, the USA has promised to go all-in.
One can probably assume that China is the same house of cards as Russia but they are probably smart enough not to put themselves in the same situation.
13:10
It is passing by in the feed that China includes Russia in its payment system.
If you say A, you have to say B in my opinion, if China breaks the sanctions against Russia, sanctions should be imposed on them. I am of the opinion that they will fall like a house of cards Russia style.
13:47
Surtrutn, it is about who loses the most. China will collapse but the West will get a little less filet mignon for a few years.
15:40
I do not agree about the Chechens, they, Wagner and the Syrian mercenaries have a reputation they deserve.
Besides, the Ukrainians cannot relate to them, you give and do not ask for mercy.
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In the long run, it is extremely irresponsible of Putin to deploy them in the fights, a bit like if we were at war with Norway we would send Congolese rebels there who cut off hands and cut children out of pregnant women, an enormous escalation. Nothing surprises anymore though when it comes to Putin.
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A dead Chechen mercenary is a good Chechen dead mercenary.
17:47
A few months ago, Zelensky was the guy who danced naked with a guitar and would never win the presidential election.
The film where he enters the field hospital is incredible, he has fully embraced his role 100% and is both a boss and a leader.
It’s hard to say how much he has done for the war, but the fact that he has continuously posted videos from inside Kiev and urged to fight to the last bullet must have positively influenced the will to defend. Especially in a country like Ukraine where the elite are expected to abandon ship first. All respect to him.
17:54
Zelensky knows that if he is captured, it’s summary execution immediately. Now that the worst is over, it’s probably okay, but in the first days when the US offered to fly him out and things looked pretty bleak, you really have to give him and the government great credit for staying and posting his videos from Kiev.
11:40
This is probably not quite mainstream on the blog, but since I believe that Ukraine is winning this entirely on its own and Russia is the new Germany and stab-in-the-back legends are easily born, some restraint is not wrong.
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One should probably understand that money, weapons, and special forces are flowing into Ukraine like a spring flood and the sanctions are tough. The only thing missing is bodies, and Ukraine provides that. This is a neat solution because the West does not get its pacified populations against it and Russia has nothing to escalate against. Russia does NOT have the upper hand, Ukraine has more battle-hardened soldiers, more money, and more weapons when the entire West stands behind it. There are certainly thousands of special forces from the West in Ukraine.
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Just like in the 90s, I think one should try perestroika again, overthrow Putin and his henchmen, but this time offer fair trade agreements with the big consumer EU. Maybe Russia can be pacified. We have our informal agreements with the West and Gotland shall be defended. To have peace, we prepare for war (easy to say when Russia-paid politicians have managed to dismantle the defense over 25 years…)
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If it happens that after Ukraine has completely on its own thrown out Russia and from that a nationalist Z movement and a really unlikely stab-in-the-back legend (the West gave NLAW to Ukraine so our sons died, kind of) is born, we join NATO. This will crystallize during 2022 already and we have the door open.
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Russia IS not a threat to Finland or Sweden in the next 10 years. However, if they do a Germany and go for round two, they will be in the future and first we should probably try to do a post-1945 Germany.
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If China has the slightest self-preservation instinct, they will keep in line, their economy is like a house of cards built with grains of rice and extremely easy to crash and the West obviously has the will when needed.
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Do not fall for propaganda suggesting that Ukraine should give up nor for escalation, it is still possible to limit this to a Russian collapse.