09:48
Link to AB with, according to the USA, Russia’s wishlist of materiel including; food, maintenance vehicles and armor.
Doesn’t exactly signal strength to go begging for food 🙂
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/dn8Mdj/uppgifter-rysslands-onskelista-om-vapen-till-kina
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China can send whatever they want to Russia, Ukraine has the entire West’s combined resources behind it so the outcome will still be the same, a major Russian defeat and Putin’s resignation.
09:59
It feels like Russia has run out of offensive power, they have used up what they had and reserves have not arrived.
An excellent opportunity for Ukraine to launch a larger offensive, Mariupol should be at the top of the list and then maybe strike the southern offensive?
If they can force a “Russian retreat” (flight) and blow up some bridges so they are forced to surrender, they can achieve a strategic victory that might win the war.
11:26
I have the impression that the whole “all deaths are terrible, better to give up” comes from the left (right or wrong?)
It IS a narrative in the media that the best thing would be to make peace with Putin and that Ukraine should cede some land to save its population.
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I am of the very clear opinion that Ukraine are superheroes, they have done exactly what they should, do not provoke, we want peace but prepare for war, and then finally go all in. The whole country is absolutely boiling with fighting spirit and I am very impressed by a country I thought was a corrupt and lazy rogue state.
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The only way forward is for Ukraine to throw Russia out of all its territory, anything else is in the long run a loss for Ukraine. ALL media that has the slightest moral compass should fully support this.
11:54
My take on the southern Ukrainian defense fiasco. I believe the Russians bribed their way to a victory there.
Not many shots were fired before Russian units rolled over the Dnieper. It is clear that the Ukrainian army was asleep in their quarters, confident that the Russians would not cross the first bridge at Crimea, which they did, and all the bridges after that up to the Dnieper.
12:20
Yes, like the blogger, I am worried about the media’s take on the Ukraine war, the message is preferably that we should lie down and give up.
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We must thank the gods that the Ukrainians are a nation of alphas and alpha women. Hand hearts and peace messages would have made Ukraine a compliant state after a week. This is something I would like to see analyzed in how the reporting was compared to the UK, Sky News is quite accurate and tough in their reporting.
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Now just waiting for SVT to start agitating that sanctions against the Russians are mean and that they are to be pitied.
19:12
The mayor of Mariupol hints at maybe 20,000 dead civilians, those are terrible losses.
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If the blog’s link is correct that the Russians are running from Mykolaiv, it is reasonable to think they will land at Odessa to divert the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
It will go fast west of the Dnieper now. Ukraine blowing up the bridges over the Dnieper and forcing a mass surrender is reasonable.
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In a day or two we will probably have confirmation that the siege of Mariupol has been lifted.
22:05
This is supposed to be (unconfirmed) outside Kherson Airport.
These are Russian staff vehicles/soft vehicles driving FAST south.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1503831927245230086?cxt=HHwWjMC-lfLK194pAAAA
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If one guesses, the terrain west of the Dnieper will be cleared within a day or two.
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The next city to watch is Mariupol, when that encirclement breaks there are four brigades that can strike in all directions.
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I think I see the southern front breaking down now, maybe a bit early to claim victory but I have been claiming Ukrainian victory since a few days into the invasion.
22:10
I see nothing at all about the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the media. The blog was probably first to report on the counteroffensive yesterday and now we are Mykolaiv – Kherson in a day.
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I don’t understand why they don’t blow up the bridges but maybe because they want to roll over them themselves?
It can go damn fast to close off the land tongue to Crimea and then there is probably a considerable number of Russian units encircled.
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If the Russians are now moving south it will be a bloodbath on the roads from now on which will show in the reporting tomorrow.
22:16
Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the south is not local counterattacks but a broad attack west of the Dnieper and eastwards.
The number of destroyed rear vehicles and the vehicles that drove off like car thieves means the Russians are basically fleeing the field 🙂
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A quick look at the map and if Ukraine can close off the retreat route to Crimea they have captured enough Russian units to end the war in the most humiliating way possible for the Russians. 30,000 prisoners of war…
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Here the four brigades in Mariupol can probably come into play, one can guess they have high combat value and can strike in all directions as soon as Crimea is cut off.
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Ukraine simply waited out the Russians’ renewed offensive and when it ran out of energy they immediately went on the offensive, textbook example!
09:41
I believe so because Putin has just shown that he has bullied the world and had absolutely nothing to back it up with.
The natural assumption must be that China is playing the same dirty game.
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When it comes to China, their economy is more vulnerable than Russia’s and certainly the army is bigger but if there is a war it will be with the USA so the result = Ukraine. As long as the West can accept a financial crisis, China will take a big leap back to Mao.
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The narrative that the USA and EU are in decline and that China and Russia would take over is obviously completely wrong. The EU and USA have shown they still have quite a lot of strength left in the fight and I really hope that people stop flattering dictators and that we can have a world where people live in some degree of freedom. Until the first shots were fired I was completely sure we were heading towards a more authoritarian world also in the West and that it was the new normal. Now I think I see the opposite but much can happen along the way.