11:59
I didn’t press send now but did it after a few hours of meetings and saw that the blog was updated with the above information and now you probably can’t remove the post which is third on the ball as usual 🙂
12:31
Maybe a bit early for information but I think it seems like Ukraine has gone on full offensive on all fronts with larger mechanized units.
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Previously we have seen platoon or company local infantry attacks supported by one or two tanks.
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Putting a whole brigade in motion requires maintenance, communication, and being relatively sure not to be shot down by MLRS, helicopter or attack aircraft.
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It appears that attacks with mechanized brigades have taken place in; Mykolaiv, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Kiev?
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One can guess that reinforcements will be concentrated towards Kiev and Kharkiv and that it is harder to reinforce the southern front and Donbass so maybe that is where the greatest advance will be?
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Is it really artillery that knocked out the helicopters at the airport? Could it not have been advancing tanks and, as the blogger writes, the helicopters lack fuel. The flight from the airport was almost panicked yesterday.
19:04
Still a bit quiet so far about the Ukrainian offensive which is annoying. That there are fights in Kherson I think I can deduce but otherwise it is quite quiet.
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However, very strong statements from Ukraine that Russia’s offensive capability is gone and they are digging in to hold the terrain they have taken. That alone is really a knockout but to achieve anything lasting Russia must be thrown out of Ukraine.
21:48
It went pretty fast for Putin to go full dictator…
In the speech the blog links to, it is quite obvious that the West is the enemy and everyone who is against Putin, the war, the oligarchs in Russia is fair game. Criticize the war and you go to the Gulag if you are lucky.
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Very messy with the Russians but it simmers there, Ukraine MUST throw out the Russians themselves to make Putin look weak so the people rise up. NATO expansion, no-fly zone and everything that gives Putin a chance to blame the loss on someone else must be avoided as much as possible. Send in all the special forces they can in the international legion but keep it at that level.
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If Putin comes out of this with a feeling that it is the West’s fault, Russia will come back in 10 years and be a threat.
Now, in fact, Europe has armed itself to the teeth in 10 years and it will be the same journey again but during that time all the countries’ populations will have lived in Cold War 2.0.
21:59
This might be nothing but I’m posting it here, explosions in Belarus possibly,
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1504198155931652096?cxt=HHwWgMDUwZqQ_t8pAAAA
22:00
This is horrific, footage from the theater before the bombing. Packed with children…
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1504165292511043591?cxt=HHwWjoC9-aaX798pAAAA
22:14
Something big is happening with Ukraine’s offensive, we hear very little and you have to piece things together,
We know that the Russians ran from Mykolaiv and Kherson Airport and that Ukraine attacked around Kiev and in Luhansk.
Just the vehicles that drove off like car thieves from Kherson feels like an important piece of the puzzle.
It is quiet about Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kakhovka, Tokmak, Berdyansk, Vasylivka etc. so one lets the balloon stay inflated.
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Could Ukraine be trying to cut off the retreat route to Crimea, I think so 🙂 There are two narrow land tongues leading to Crimea…
A bit far-fetched maybe but in Luhansk, could they try to encircle Donbass, they have Mariupol in the south and are starting to advance in Luhansk. They have tried this before and it went so-so and it is a big bite so probably not but maybe they are positioning themselves so that when they reach Mariupol and its 4 brigades they can strike north.
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I wonder how many they might have inside an encirclement if Ukraine cuts off contact with Crimea, maybe 30,000 men?
11:56
I think this blog and the comment section have hit the mark very well, the guess was that in the calm between a stalled Russian offensive and before they have brought up reserves, Ukraine would try to strike against the Russian invasion. We will probably see during the day how far they got at Mykolaiv-Kherson. The landing at Odessa was probably an attempt to divert Ukrainian resources from Mykolaiv-Kherson.
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Then we have Luhansk, which we wrote about yesterday, also a larger counteroffensive.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1503863012691689474?cxt=HHwWhICy5abc5d4pAAAA
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The loss figures are rising, I think MLRS, soft vehicles and artillery have taken off significantly here and it is generally the rear that then starts to be knocked out in Ukrainian counteroffensives.
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1503996631536091142?cxt=HHwWjIC-4fi9ot8pAAAA
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At Kharkiv, the Russian attacks are almost over and it is not exactly a sharp situation at Kiev. Some write in the feed that the Russians are starting to dig in along the northern front, among others below.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1503963965042348037?cxt=HHwWisCytcDQk98pAAAA
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To prevent Putin from freezing the conflict, Ukraine needs to reach a bigger decisive point before Russian reserves arrive in larger numbers. Right now, the southern front is starting to emerge as a candidate to encircle larger Russian units that surrender. If one guesses, their endurance under encirclement would be a few days. If Russia chooses to ignore the message and continue the aggression, a large number of units in the south would then be freed to retake Donbass. Russian reserves are probably being sent towards Kiev and Kharkiv, and that line has proven easy to hold.