09:55
Ukraine needs all the help they can get now that doesn’t escalate, they must reach a decisive point before Russia has brought forward such large reinforcements that they can freeze the conflict and Putin can wiggle out of this.
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According to reports, Russia has deployed 75% of its maneuver battalions. Of those who have been battered in combat, which I believe is the majority, they merge them into battalion size and suddenly have a new battalion to deploy. I guess the combat value of these is close to zero and they have to get along with soldiers from 3-4 other battalions and agree on who should go first.
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Can they send in the remaining 25% of available maneuver battalions and leave the rest of the country undefended?
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Mercenaries are not completely stupid and the rumor is probably spreading about what a meat grinder Ukraine is. Putin’s begging route to dictator buddies probably won’t yield much. It has been quiet about the Chechens for a while now; it would be interesting to know where they are fighting and how.
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The biggest threat right now is if the West chickens out and pressures Zelensky to agree to a peace where Russia keeps Donbass and Crimea. Unfortunately, Ukraine seems to have said that the Russians must leave all territory they have taken since the start of the attack a few weeks ago to agree to a ceasefire… Unfortunately, it may be that the Ukrainian brigades are too tired to manage to throw Russia out right now but hopefully they can keep going.
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If Putin and his oligarchs do not fall, they can create a stab-in-the-back legend, withdraw and lick their wounds and come back as a real threat in 10 years. This is exactly what the Russians are good at, rising on the ninth, so the world needs to get rid of Putin now and that only happens if the Russians themselves feel that the emperor is naked by Ukraine throwing them out of Ukraine on their own.
10:05
The International Legion was created so that the West could send in their special forces completely legitimately, very smart. Then all of Europe has openly provided weapons from day one so everyone can fight with their personal weapons.
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Ukraine’s air force is going strong and naturally they have low-flown in Mig and SU from Eastern Europe, the same models Ukraine has, fully loaded. The pilots were already in Poland after a couple of days. It is enough that they land at the nearest airbase in Western Ukraine.
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I don’t know how many transport planes are running shuttle traffic but ammunition for all of Ukraine’s weapons is also shipped over daily.
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Getting Strv and artillery in covertly is a bit tricky but it is possible to fly them in with Globemasters if you want and covered transports, if that happens we don’t know but Ukraine’s artillery has really found its zest for life lately.
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That said, the absolute biggest supplier of functioning armor and artillery to Ukraine is Putin himself 🙂
12:14
Regarding the Ukrainian offensive. I can’t find any information at all about Ukrainian advances but I am quite convinced that something big is underway. As we have said for a couple of days, the window for Ukraine to win is to attack as soon as the Russian offensive has ebbed and before Russia brings enough reinforcements to freeze the conflict and this time is exactly now.
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Cutting off the retreat route to Crimea I personally think is tied for first place with breaking the encirclement of Mariupol but you probably want to cut the retreat route before opening up to Mariupol.
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If Russia has deployed almost all maneuver units in combat and it has now ebbed, the combat value is probably very low.
If there are 4 brigades in Mariupol alone that still have combat value left, it is a huge blow waiting to be dealt.
12:26
Yes, when you put mechanized brigades on the move, artillery, drones or aircraft losses can quickly become astronomical so they are probably quite sure it is manageable then, Russian resistance on the ground is likely less of a problem unless they run into fresh VDV, reconnaissance or Spetsnaz.
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So far, the videos that have come out have shown extremely competent group and platoon combat in overall company attacks with some tanks as support. Brigade combat is a whole different animal but I think their brigades are intact and they have also been trained for seven years and will probably surprise positively 🙂
12:28
Like this – I don’t think Russian ground forces are even prepared for defensive combat, like mines and well-armed infantry.
Buried tanks to some extent but you fight those off with drones that direct fire.
The Russian units simply have no defense against brigade attacks and will, as in Mykolaiv, turn and run.
14:54
Regarding Ukraine’s offensive in the south.
What I think is coming through is that fighting is taking place over Kherson or just west of Kherson right now.
On March 16 it was written; “The Ukrainian government also stated that its forces had begun a counteroffensive near Mykolaiv towards Kherson”.
“Ukrainian forces also said they pressed an offensive south and east of the southern port of Mykolayiv, moving in the direction of Kherson, the only Ukrainian regional capital occupied by Russia since the war began Feb. 24”
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If they had crossed the Dnipro at Kherson, we would probably know it, I guess, hard to keep secret.
I think it is a strong signal that the Russian navy is provoking near Odessa that this offensive has momentum and is a threat.
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I’m a bit curious about what Ukraine is attacking with, have they moved away mechanized and perhaps also the armored brigade from Odessa?
At Mykolaiv they already had the 80th Air Assault Brigade and Krivoy Rog the 17th Tank Brigade. These are probably the heavy brigades west of the Dnipro that are available besides a large number of TA and special forces.
15:19
The 17th Tank Brigade has 3 tank battalions and a mechanized battalion, so it has substantial striking power.
The 80th Air Assault has actually been fighting since 2014 and is probably some kind of elite unit.
The 59th Mechanized Brigade is also in the area.
Now, the brigades may not be at full strength and battalions are present in other front sections.
The 5th Tank Brigade is not entirely clear to me what kind of unit it is, but the 28th Mechanized has three mechanized battalions and an armored battalion and has fought in Donbass. These two are defending Odesa.
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If these units are relatively intact, it is a serious blow currently being dealt to Kherson, and there are also mechanized and armored brigades far south of Kyiv that may have been moved southwest for this offensive.
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Consider here that the fighting west of the Dnipro has not been so intense, so the units that have been grouped here should have very high combat value and 5-6 brigades in reserve, but it remains unclear how many battalions per brigade there are.
15:31
Yes, one has to guess here, I see no problem cutting off Crimea.
The number of Russian units west of the Dnipro is likely heading towards zero quite quickly, and there are plenty of infantry brigades west of the Dnipro that can hold Kakhovka if one chooses to cross the Dnipro at Kherson.
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There are 5-7 heavy brigades that could be part of an attack eastward from Kherson; it is an enormous energy being unleashed and enough to protect southward towards Crimea, strike northward, and liberate Mariupol.
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The reason they did not blow up the bridges over the Dnipro was probably because they wanted to catch a bigger fish than just the Russian units west of the Dnipro, namely the entire southern front if the land bridge to Crimea is cut off.
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If Russian units west of the Dnipro go towards zero and Mariupol is liberated, there is not much logistical value in having a lot of boats with fuel, right?
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It seems the Russians overstretched northwest of Mykolaiv and were defeated, then it went lightning fast down to Mykolaiv where they fled quite immediately towards Kherson, and at least from Kherson airport they fled on foot. All within 2 days. We’ll see if they get stuck at the Dnipro or can roll over either at Kherson or Kakhovka.
If not, they will probably fortify Kherson and Kakhovka and cross the Dnipro at Dnipro instead, but then there will be no encirclement and mass surrender.
15:48
We continue guessing, if Ukraine attacked Kherson with 4-6 brigades with the aim to cross the Dnipro, cut off the Crimean land bridge, and liberate Mariupol, can this really be stopped?
The Russians should have lost most of what they had west of the Dnipro at Mykolaiv-Kherson, and otherwise they have tied themselves up around Mariupol and Tokmak-Vasylivka. Incidentally, 200 vehicles were destroyed near Vasylivka the other day.
They can probably hurry up reserves from Crimea if they have any, but then they have to go by road and risk being shot down before they arrive.
15:53
Because of this, I guess it is game over for Putin quite soon. If he cannot play a trump card, all units north of Crimea but south of Zaporizhzhia will be encircled within a few days and surrender not long after.
16:07
If one may speculate further, this comes at the same time as there is a stream of oligarchs fleeing to Dubai and a string of planes heading to Putin’s dacha.
The fleet showing up outside Odessa means at least they have understood that the Russian front at Mykolaiv has collapsed and that Ukraine has started an unstoppable steamroller.
09:41
If we can follow Maxo above and his submarines in the Black Sea, I think it is possible to strike Russian air bases in Belarus and Russia as well as, above all, maintenance depots…
These maintenance convoys that are being taken out one after another replenish a few miles behind the Russian border. Right in the middle stands a huge fuel tanker waiting for a direct hit.
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The next target would be railway junctions that all reinforcements must pass through. Now maybe Ukraine needs some help here but there should be something in the missile or rocket field that they might have acquired, like from the countries in Eastern Europe or a low-flying air company at night with Mig or SU?
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If the Western countries have not yet deployed their special forces in the International Legion, they should do so today; they probably shouldn’t infiltrate across the border but behind enemy lines every SOF operator in all of Europe should be there right now.
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More Bayraktar drones, they can be flown by American drone pilots without problems if they are difficult to operate, I don’t know their range but they should be able to strike maintenance depots in Russia?
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Long-range artillery, Eastern Europe has the same “brands” and can roll over a bit of everything into Western Ukraine.
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The air defense seems to be working now and Russian aircraft losses are high, now they are probably mostly shooting with long-range weapons, the missile against the theater in Mariupol will lead to war crimes in The Hague, I can promise, so Putin is probably not jumping up and down with delight right now in his bunker.