13:23
We have for some time now in the blog and comment section considered Mariupol and the offensive from Kherson to be of strategic importance.
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Considering that the offensive has stalled on all fronts, so, just as the blog writes, Putin only has one straw left, to claim that the capture of Mariupol is a victory and then agree to a ceasefire, try to freeze the conflict and get away, and likewise, if Mariupol does not fall, Putin is denied an out.
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This entire war and actually the next 10 years for Europe is thus decided by four Ukrainian brigades and their combat readiness and endurance. The only way to hold the city is for them to conduct mobile combat day and night over the entire area in group and platoon size and never stop. As soon as the Russians can encircle pockets, they can be defeated, but mobile groups like a swarm of bees everywhere is too difficult for them, as we have seen so far.
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As the blogger says, the city has not given up yet and before Putin can parade 5,000 surrendering soldiers, Ukraine denies Putin an out.
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The offensive at Kherson will be enough to drive out the Russians west of the Dnipro, I guess, or it must be, and thereafter secure the Kherson and Khakovka crossings and can roll over the Dnipro to hold back the southern offensive’s expansion northwards.
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To relieve Mariupol, the only option now is remote combat with drones and to get the guerrilla war on steroids going over the entire area at the southern and southeastern front. You don’t necessarily have to infiltrate just SOF, reconnaissance and elite units but can set up remote patrols of capable units to conduct guerrilla warfare behind the front lines.
If it gets muddy now and the Russians really cannot drive off-road, armor and logistics become enormously vulnerable.
Denying the besiegers food will soon degrade their combat effectiveness.
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Rostov-on-Don is probably a logistics hub now that they have linked up with the Donbass rebels (and all regular Russian units there) and the roads from there must soon become convoy 2.0.
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This is an incredibly bad situation for Mariupol which is too far away for artillery support and Western ships, and the only way to assist them is really not attractive, guerrilla warfare deep inside enemy territory, Western covert ops in the form of remote combat which I really hope is on the table requires a bit less guts.
13:58
If we take a bird’s-eye view of the war and Russia, I think that just as many have said, Russia has lost the war and in the long run its geopolitical position. What they have done with Mariupol, Kiev and Kharkiv will lead first to continued sanctions until they leave all of Ukraine and thereafter also send Putin et al. to The Hague. After that, all seized assets will be sent to the reconstruction of Ukraine, Putin would probably be good for 2 billion kronor I have read somewhere. Now we haven’t even included that Russians will be pariahs for a long time ahead, the new gypsies.
Rising from this will take a couple of years and the best that can happen for Russia is that they ARE ALLOWED to sell their raw materials to the EU with decent contracts and get the CHANCE to become an appreciated trading partner.
15:03
If the Russians wanted to get rid of Putin et al., he would be dangling by his feet from a gas station today.
If the Russians don’t wake up to what is happening in Ukraine, they will in a way that is not entirely fair become accomplices.
The leadership will sit in The Hague and senior officers as well as the supporting oligarchs after this.
Unfortunately, those who opposed the war and were punished for it get guilt by association because they are Russians but the world is not entirely fair.
If the army as a whole had refused, there would never have been a war, but this can only continue because enough people accept the situation and try to get through it unscathed.
15:10
Yep, so this boils down directly to the capability of the defending soldier at the individual level.
If they can fight hungry and without sleep for long periods and conduct their mobile combat over the entire area, Mariupol will hold out until Putin has to give up. They seem to have a rarely seen fighting spirit so far, the city is obliterated and the losses must be astronomical both for civilians and combatants but in every video we see there are grinning Ukrainians.
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I have wondered if you can drop food packages with drones at night or something 🙂
Air access seems to be denied by Russian air defense and air cover.
15:39
I wonder if Putin has stepped into something he absolutely did not expect but which has been building up for a hundred years or so, namely Ukrainian thirst for revenge?
Sometime after the revolution, the abuse of Ukrainian territory began with highlights such as the Holodomor and punishing the province after World War II when some had bet on the Germans to win.
They have probably never been seen as fully Russian?
Then came 2014 and they were humiliated in broad daylight and Donbass has been like an open wound.
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Nations are born in blood, they say, and after this somewhat incredible blow they have taken, Ukraine has not even faltered, they take everything and give everything they have and I get the feeling that the thirst for revenge is enormous.
16:10
The Chechens are in Mariupol, those corpse looters, if there is any unit in this war you want to see lying flat on the ground it is them…
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1505536280435777543?cxt=HHwWjoCz_abR3uQpAAAA
17:32
Back to Mariupol, the fighting spirit must be enormous among the defenders, they have every reason to give up – hundreds of thousands of civilians slowly dying, no possibility to break the encirclement, weeks of fighting, almost weapons of mass destruction being used and a city leveled to the ground Grozny style stormed like a medieval fortress by a numerical superior force.
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I get the feeling that Putin will not be able to parade a single captured soldier if the city is taken, it will be Ukraine’s Taipale and they fight to the last man rather die than be captured. Every video we see from Mariupol shows grinning Ukrainian soldiers and they have taken more punishment than many of the bloodiest historical battles.
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However Mariupol ends, it will be a Pyrrhic victory for Putin, the number of dead civilians is too high to survive and live out his time as dictator, certainly tens of thousands so far.
22:39
I believe that the Russian doctrine of armored assaults is retired after this. Armenia-Azerbaijan was round one that ended the same way.
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3D combat, drones, aircraft, helicopters, satellites, artillery, squad combat, platoon combat, and mobile mechanized combat across the entire area is the future but requires a very competent military and combat leadership. So you can win a war with squad combat and properly armed. The West has already exported this to Ukraine, so we are right on time. China probably has a bit to learn…
13:05
Ok, now I am of the opinion that covert intervention must be stepped up when it comes to Mariupol.
The Russians have deployed ships that are now bombarding Mariupol with naval artillery of unknown caliber and according to the blog, they recently fired a TOS-1 salvo.
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The first week we knew they had TOS-1 near Berdyansk and MLRS, so that was expected, but they have not held back here and the city is leveled to the ground.
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Since the West has sent quite a wide range of weapons to Ukraine, I believe there is an opportunity to target the forces besieging Mariupol with satellite/SIGINT/Global Hawk reconnaissance and take out key weapons with what is available even if it is not currently in Ukraine.
Ships should be denied firing range to Mariupol and TOS-1 and MLRS should be taken out immediately.