12:26
The problem child is Mariupol, yesterday we wrote that it would be Ukraine’s Taipale and they really have no plans to give up, they let it be known today. The mayor speaks for the civilians and he stands strong.
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The artillery barrage over Mariupol is absolutely massive and the ships still have ammunition left (unfortunately).
Now another user posted that the naval infantry is landing in Berdyansk, so some kind of proper storming will probably be attempted by the Russians within the next few days.
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This is critical and again, if Mariupol surrenders we risk Cold War 2.0 so I think there are sufficient reasons to take out the TOS1, MLRS and the ships in a covert operation from the West.
22:01
As the blog has written many times, this is not a sprint but a marathon.
In the gap between when the offensive ebbed and reinforcements arrived, Ukraine has attempted larger offensives. They have knocked out many Russian units but have not achieved any strategically important goals.
-West of the Dnepr there is still Russian pressure towards Krivoj Rog despite the Ukrainian counterattack against Mykolaiv – Kherson.
-In the south Russian units continue to take terrain east of the Dnepr.
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I find it incredible that the Russians will be able to achieve anything meaningful here, not even east of the Dnepr will they be able to conquer.
I find it equally incredible that Ukraine in the short term will be able to drive the Russians out of Ukrainian territory. They should be able to clear west of the Dnepr but that is not enough.
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If Ukraine can keep up the 3D war on steroids it will lead to a victory over time but the problem child Mariupol really is a thorn. If the city can hold out another month everything should be as it should be but the Russians will throw absolutely everything they have at it and the only thing the Ukrainians can do is wage guerrilla warfare over the entire area in the south and strike with drones where they can, it is really a terrible situation for Mariupol.
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I don’t understand why the West hasn’t initiated color revolutions in Belarus and Russia yet, does anyone have a take on that?
12:19
Things are going well on the northern and eastern fronts, but down south the Russians still seem to be trying towards Krivoj Rog west of the Dnepr, and on the eastern side they are pushing northwards.
I have been wondering where they get their reserves from and believe I have the answer; in Donbass they have exhausted the rebels first and then sent in regular units.