11:30
Yeah, that’s always annoying when the “know-it-alls” have to put themselves above those who do the work.
I mostly sit and wonder if I could physically manage to become an infantry soldier Ukraine-style at my +45.
Then if given the choice – family or war – I would choose war or continue being a keyboard warrior.
Now you just have to hope you never have to choose, but unreserved respect for those who are now fighting so that Sweden can be safe, because that is ultimately what they are doing.
16:21
Maybe I won’t have to nag anymore about the Kherson encirclement soon because it seems they are close enough to put that bridge under indirect, maybe direct fire if you read what has been posted in the thread 😀
I don’t see much about Kakhovka but it’s “close by.” As I said, I think you can already count on massive Russian losses at Kherson. It will probably come faster than up near Kyiv since they are in worse shape.
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They have been so sure of Russian loss here that they have moved mech and armor east of the Dnieper via Zaporizhzhia and started working their way south
17:06
The West has played its cards well, now Russia, led by Lavrov, is forced to claim that the sanctions are a declaration of war 🙂
If they manage to cook up a stab-in-the-back legend from the sanctions and weapons deliveries that resonates with the Russian people, they are beyond hope, but I don’t think it will work; the dictatorship is out of step with the times.
11:19
Since Ukraine has moved 2-3 mechanized brigades to the N and NW of Mariupol, my guess is that Volnovakha will soon become contested and that we will see an attempt to relieve Mariupol within the next few weeks.
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If the blog now writes that the Russians have managed to split Mariupol in two, that probably reinforces this scenario and Ukraine may have moved these brigades forward after reports from Mariupol that they are starting to have it tough?
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How phase 2 of the counteroffensive will look is a bit trickier, but if I were to guess, they will try to restore the ceasefire line between Mariupol – Donetsk and also conduct mobile combat in the SW direction from where they stand today towards Melitopol and Tokmak. If I may guess, I don’t think Tokmak and Melitopol are occupied by strong Russian units but their BTG is west of the Dnieper and towards Mariupol. The offensive northward from Tokmak has been secondary.
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We’ll see, but if they can restore the Mariupol – Donetsk line and push back the Russians south of Melitopol, they will have come quite far ahead of the Russians’ spring offensive down south.