13:12
This was left unposted, but if you look at the map and how this develops, and assuming Belarus does not interfere in the war, Ukraine will before the spring offensive (which will go to hell within a month from the start) begins have;
-restored the ceasefire line Mariupol – Donetsk and liberated Mariupol.
-pushed back the Russians in the south towards Crimea, maybe up to Melitopol
-fortified Kherson and Kakhovka so passage 2.0 becomes impossible.
-cleaned up around Kiev west of the Dnipro up to the border.
-held the Chernihiv-Sumy-Kharkiv line
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The area that will become lively, I think we have enough information about, the Russians try again and again at Izyum and suffer constant heavy losses, and Ukraine has reinforced with the 17th Tank Brigade there. There is great pressure, and looking at the map, Izyum is well positioned to attempt a large encirclement of the old ceasefire line, perhaps down to Donetsk.
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It is in this area Kharkiv – Dnipro – Mariupol – Donetsk – Luhansk that the spring offensive will focus on and where Ukraine will send its mechanized and armored brigades. If the area is lost, Putin gets his out and can freeze the war and then forever threaten with a renewed invasion that will come. If Ukraine runs its 3D combat and especially mobile with mechanized and armor, it should succeed. A panicked flight towards Dnipro will be a bloodbath, but there is nothing to indicate that the Russians will be able to handle Ukraine’s mobile combat now topped with armor; in the first weeks of the war, they held back mechanized and armored brigades in reserve, so they suffered heavy losses from infantry brigades and national guard reinforced with platoons of armor/IFV? The reinforced air defense is preferably deployed to this area. Ukraine has at least 6 mechanized and armored brigades in the area, which is no small matter, and so far it has worked excellently to “dilute” them with an infantry company assigned a platoon of tanks or IFVs, and there are certainly 5-6 elite infantry brigades (airborne, special police, etc.) in the area and a large number of infantry brigades now with combat experience and combat value. A battle group of 100,000 or so where they are trained together, have functioning communications and command hierarchy, and high combat value as well as combat experience.
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The terrain is quite forested around Kharkiv – Izyum. Few roads further south and Pavlograd looks like a natural defense. Otherwise quite a lot of farmland in the middle, so air defense will be crucial if the Russians manage to push that far.
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I think there are reasons for the Donbass rebels to be worried and the Russian staff is probably not entirely thrilled about their spring offensive. We will see the same news again, “500 Russian tanks against Izyum,” “Russia takes Izyum,” “constant bombing around XX,” “Ukrainian forces flee from Slovyansk and Kramatorsk,” stuff like that…
And then a week later when Ukraine has got everything in order, there will be a counteroffensive all the way to the national border and the war is over and Putin is dangling from someone’s gas station or sitting sulking on a stool in The Hague 🙂
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It is sad that Putin will push through this second offensive which will be bloodier than the first fiasco, but I do not see how Russia can be broken before then. They put their hope in this time working, which of course it won’t, but hope is probably the last thing to leave you.
17:56
You heard it here first – in a maximum of one month a new narrative will be pumped out by Putin loyalists and Russia when the offensive has died down and they try to freeze the front where they stand today (in about a month).
“Russia wants peace and has ceased all aggression, Ukraine is bloodthirsty and wages war against us and kills Russian boys, Russia demands an immediate ceasefire and an end to all hostilities to save lives, we want peace.”
It will be the most surreal day ever when you hear Swedes, whom you have suspected a little of Kremlin sympathy, trying to peddle this. Then Swedish peace advocates will beg and plead for a ceasefire to save lives.
At that stage, it is important that Ukraine presses on until the Russians are on the other side of the border.
17:59
Yep, we can probably count Kherson as won, I don’t think much has managed to retreat back over the Dnipro so it will probably be a major surrender. When Ukraine moved its heavy brigades over Zaporozhye to the eastern side of the Dnipro, they knew how this would end, i.e. knockout victory.
18:08
Exciting, all mechanized, armored and elite units have been removed from the map below. Then you have to start guessing again but that can only be positive, Ukraine probably has something exciting underway.
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/deployment-map/
18:45
Back to Izyum and the Russians’ attempt at encirclement with their upcoming spring offensive. If you look at the map in terrain mode, the Samara river first goes north from the Dnipro and then 90 degrees east towards Pavlograd and beyond. IF the Russians were to make good progress, they will not get past this natural obstacle and then mobile combat will take place between Pavlograd – Donetsk.
This is assuming things go brilliantly for the Russians, which they have not so far. They would in that case take roughly Donetsk and Luhansk oblast in a best-case scenario and not up to the Dnipro.
The strategic value of Luhansk and Donetsk is low, so roughly that is what a worst-case scenario looks like.
22:15
The Finns are incredibly balanced, they want peace but prepare for war and they have not lived off reserves but have a very strong defense. Poland too, I think. The Baltic states want to but they are too infiltrated by Russia and too small, so they probably could become easy victims if NATO lets them be swallowed.
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Sweden has a very long tradition of not preparing for war until it is too late and then managing by being the friend who betrays. After WW2 we got reparations to Europe for cozying up with Hitler but the Social Democrats called it building up Europe. Then when it is too late, we arm like crazy in times of total peace; in the 50s we probably had the world’s 5th largest air force or something?
22:39
This may have been posted before, so apologies if so, but a couple of Ukrainians blow up an IFV and get a real hell of a blast from it 🙂
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1507787843254427649?cxt=HHwWgoCpncHD3uwpAAAA
22:44
What has been decisive seems to be Ukraine’s ability to conduct mobile combat and urban combat.
The reason Mariupol survives is that 4 brigades move across the entire area in group and platoon combat with some tank attached.
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Then there is the 3D combat (I know that is wrong but I call it that), mobile combat, drones, artillery spotting with drones, fire ambushes, local counteroffensives, fire-movement all the time like a damn hornet’s nest. Then infiltrate deep and strike at logistics.
If you ask me, the West has sent all its SOF to the international legion.
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The first blow was taken by infantry with assigned tanks and IFVs, about a platoon per company. Mechanized and armor were held back in reserve. Now everything is involved and armor east of the Dnipro and we will see if Ukraine can handle this type of combat too, my money is on them.
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Russia is the one lacking materiel and replacement personnel, not Ukraine, and Ukraine gets hundreds of functioning combat vehicles that mostly need fuel and ammunition. If you ask me, ammunition transports from Eastern Europe go in a constant swarm.
09:19
If Kherson is taken, or if the bridge is put under direct fire, it is the only retreat route for the remnants of the 6-8 BTG bridge at Khakovka.
It is nearby and can thus quickly be denied to the Russians, so this battle can probably be counted as a win.
This will not be strategic, but a solid feather in Ukraine’s cap. I don’t think they can be maintained today.