11:16
Exactly, in Kiev there are probably 10 infantry brigades that have not had much combat contact and can be deployed east of Kiev so the Chernihiv – Sumy stretch should not take long before they have retaken up to the border, I guess.
At Kherson, the heavy brigades have already been moved east of the Dnipro but not much has happened so maybe they have been plugging holes rather than launching counteroffensives. Unfortunately, a recapture of communities down towards Mariupol is absent so far. If I read the information correctly, there are now 3 brigades left in Mariupol and the National Guard brigade risks being cut off from the marines and Azov. One can only hope that Ukraine has infiltrated as much as possible behind enemy lines in the south and is conducting drone warfare 2.0 to relieve pressure because it seems they cannot do much else right now.
11:23
So they have basically sentenced the extensive 13 BTGs or whatever remains just north of Kiev to death.
Then they let Chernihiv, Konotop, and Sumy break the encirclement.
All very good for Ukraine.
I still think there is something fishy with Belarus but the comments say I am too optimistic 🙂
Ukraine has moved its reserves from southwest Kiev and acts as if they are quite sure Belarus will not attack towards Lviv. I guess there is a lot of sabotage in Belarus making logistics and reserves difficult to move.
11:31
There is a lot of “Ukraine does not have armor to attack with” and that their offensive would stall. The best they have had in this war is drones and infantry at company size with some platoon of tanks or IFVs assigned. They also have night equipment.
I do not think armor is the limiting factor in this war and that many counteroffensives have been carried out by infantry with fewer assigned armor.
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The advances between Chernihiv – Sumy are largely without the heavy brigades for example, and at Kherson the heavy brigades have also been moved away and now there is probably one mech left, airborne, marines, and national guard.
11:44
I wonder how it looks down towards Izyum?
If the Russians continue being Russians, they will probably throw themselves over Kramatorsk and Sloviansk from the Izyum direction.
Waiting for the right moment, one should be able to strike from Kharkiv straight east and cause quite a lot of damage now that the pressure on Kharkiv has eased and they are slowly starting to clear all terrain west of the city all the way to Chernihiv.
Kupiansk would be a good target for an attack.
New front line will be Kupiansk – Sloviansk – Yampil – Lychansk?
12:23
I have been a bit sensitive to the narrative that Putin should not get anything tangible so he survives turning Russia into the fourth Reich and a threat in 10 years, 15 probably now after Ukraine.
He seems to have too good a grip on Russia as he can turn this fiasco into a victory if he is not thrown out of Donbass.
The only way is to get a color revolution going in Belarus and Russia.
Then over a 12-hour period starting at 19:00, one should strike with Global Hawk and stealth against all fuel and ammunition depots, choke points, command centers, ships, and TOS-1 and MLRS as much as possible. One big hit and then disappear. Maybe blame everything on Poland and that a general acted on his own initiative? I think it would work now that they have Arleigh Burke destroyers in the Baltic Sea and Mediterranean with their air defense and Patriot in Europe.
13:44
We have to guess some things but read the red text box in the map below,
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1508632912534589444/photo/1
Russian BTGs + rebels – 224,000.
Ukrainian army + paramilitary 310,000 and in addition 900,000 reserves who are probably at various degrees of mobilization and readiness.
This should be enough for local superiority in more than one place, right now northwest of Kiev, Kherson, and between Chernihiv-Sumy.
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It seems the problem may not be reaching Mariupol but that the pressure from Donbass against the old ceasefire line is heavy and ties up most forces in that area if you interpret the map. It seems a mech brigade is trying to reach Mariupol and the rest of the mech + armor east of the Dnipro is reinforcing the front lines east.
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Noteworthy that all heavy reserves southwest of Kiev now participate in the fighting north of Kiev or east of the Dnipro and that the heavy brigades at Kherson are now east of the Dnipro. To me, it looks like Ukraine is confident enough that Belarus will not enter the war that they have dared to drain northwest Ukraine. It could also be that Poland has promised Ukraine to strike east if the Russians try to open a new front down towards Lviv?
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Considering that the Russians in the first month were beaten by National Guard and infantry reinforced with armor while a large number of heavy brigades were held in reserve west of the Dnipro, I find it hard to see how it could go better for the Russians now in round 2 when all heavy Ukrainian brigades are in combat. However, Ukrainian logistics are longer but not longer than the Russians’.
15:31
One can only hope that Ukraine takes Ivankiv and holds there!
I read in every newspaper that now the Russians will show their goodwill in the peace talks and withdraw from Kiev.
Considering they have 13 BTGs encircled, it is quite obvious what they think and intend.
The media has consistently been a megaphone for what Russia wants to be written..
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It would also be appropriate if they withdraw east of Kiev so they do not get encircled there as well.
16:07
Now it starts, “Turkey demands a quick ceasefire.” Where have the Turks been the past month?
SVT, “Russia promises to withdraw from Kiev,” have they completely missed that the Russians are encircled?
I find it hard to believe that Ukraine will fall for this but if international pressure becomes too high, they might find it hard to resist.
As I wrote a few days ago, it is not far now until Russia will call Ukraine the aggressor and war criminals who kill Russian boys’ lives…
22:46
21:13 I know there will always be pushback but if you ask me, the entire West’s SOF is in the international legion and infiltrated behind Russian lines and they have some covert ops with Global Hawk or stealth against high-priority targets, Belgorod is one and Rostov na Don another and there a train was destroyed in some kind of mysterious explosion. Then we have all the explosions in Belarus but maybe the Belarusians are handling those themselves.
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Also want to remind that the number of sunk ships has probably risen to 7 now, it jumped from maybe two when ships started bombarding Mariupol so maybe they have done the only right thing and knocked out TOS-1, MLRS, and ships around Mariupol to even the odds?
10:53
According to the Wikipedia map, Sumy is no longer encircled and it is starting to look like Chernihiv and Konotop might also be opened up.
Between Chernihiv and Sumy there are several “strings” of Russian advances, they have probably been moving along the roads.
Considering the 10 or so brigades lurking in Kiev where the war never came, there should be another encirclement in the Kiev-Chernihiv-Sumy triangle within the next few weeks.
For example, if they could move north on roads west of the main Kiev – Chernihiv route and then make a 90-degree turn eastward. There might be about 15 BTGs that have advanced there and just yesterday there was an assault attempt on Kiev suburbs east of the Dnipro.