00:33
As I said, I believe there are two more encirclements west of Kiev and Kherson. South of Chernihiv there are many small Russian advances and Ukraine controls west of the Kiev – Chernihiv road. If they could encircle northwards and then eastwards, it could get lively.
Then we have Kharkiv and if they can take Kupiansk, then some units will be cut off as well.
We will see, but along the northern front the Russians seem to be retreating with what they can and since they are Russians they retreat at the very back closest to Russia northwards first instead of protecting those who have advanced furthest, this is such a monumental failure that it’s hard to believe it’s true, the red storm became a red kindergarten class or something.
11:41
What if we overestimate the Russians again?
At least I am very surprised at how badly it has gone compared to what I thought the Russian army was. The blogger has always claimed this and has thus been consistent.
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Right now 13BTG is encircled northwest of Kiev and it looks bleak, and Kherson is in its final phase, I thought it would go faster but Ukraine moved the heavy brigades east of the Dnipro and let the National Guard finish the job.
Then I think it is possible to encircle more Russian units between Chernihiv – Sumy and then if you strike east from Kharkiv it could get lively there as well. All Ukrainian mechanized and armored brigades are now east of the Dnipro.
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The Russian mobilization does not seem to have worked, nice explosions in Belgorod and Rostov-on-Don against presumed logistics and of the original 170BTG or whatever it was most must have suffered heavy losses.
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Could this regrouping simply be so that the Russians can HOLD Donbass and not be driven out from there as well, maybe the increased pressure is from Ukraine on Donbass and not the other way around 🙂
13:06
Now SVT has jumped on the fake video where disguised Russians shoot prisoners in the knees.
BIG headlines about Ukraine’s WAR CRIMES. If you scroll a bit on the page, the Russian genocide almost completely disappears.
I understand that one might excuse this by differentiating and that all sides should be heard but when you start publishing Russian psyops as truth and DO NOT publish Russian atrocities then you are very far off as a taxpayer-funded beacon for the truth.
I know it will never be like that but this should be thoroughly examined because there is an enormous bias towards Russia, understanding, ideological closeness etc. among far too many journalists.
I think about how it would have looked if Ukraine had fallen after a few weeks, we would have gone on with our lives and believed the media’s reporting that it was for the better…
13:23
No, not underestimate but mostly a little probe about how it might look on the ground. We have so little about Ukrainian units so there is some guessing but now all their heavy brigades are in eastern Ukraine and the Russians are almost panicking moving units there. The natural thing would have been to try to save those encircled northwest of Kiev and hold the captured terrain.
There has been talk about long columns of reserves on the way but if you read between the lines they are giving up the northern front and west of the Dnipro near Kherson and taking the losses, and you only do that if there is something more important and I can imagine that is also losing Donbass 🙂
13:31
For me there are so many anecdotes that it is a new normal. If you get feedback it is about a specific case and you either backpedal or have a good explanation, the result is that 40 other articles slip through anyway.
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My solution to this is that you simply give them a VERY good directive on what they should report and the competence of the resources reporting (politically they can belong to whatever they want) so you can navigate difficult issues.
Then you cut the budget so the 70% who just sit and play activist-left with tax money have to do it in their own company or take a job that demands something.
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An eye-opener for me is that Friatider and Samnytt have come out as Kremlin-positive, I hadn’t really wanted to believe that. Also a couple of SD, more than anecdotes, who have not condemned the Russians in the strongest possible terms. That may be because they are paid or that they have gotten sources (handlers) who have led them towards a closeness to a certain type of sources they feel they trust. During 2014 I read some of that myself and had a different view of the war but because of this it simply isn’t possible anymore since Russia has slid too far out for you even to try to understand what is happening.
13:39
One probably didn’t have high hopes for V and that MP has fallen into the trap consciously or unconsciously is quite clear so there is a not insignificant amount of our media and political parties that have a leaning towards the Kremlin consciously or unconsciously.
13:52
Of course we support Ukraine 🙂
Right now we have almost proof of an encirclement northwest of Kiev, encirclement on the way at Kherson, recapture underway of the entire area between Chernihiv – Sumy. That alone is enough for me to win the war but now Putin and Russia don’t work like that, he has too good control over the country. On the eastern front Russia has made basically zero progress so the only sore point is Mariupol but that was probably due to successful bribes and early infiltrated SOF that allowed the Russians to advance which was unfortunate.
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I almost want to turn your reasoning around and say that basically everyone has overestimated Russia and underestimated Ukraine for about a month now, sure I have claimed 1-0 Ukraine after a few days of war and been wrong so far but a lot is going in the right direction now. One thing that seems to escape reflection is that Russia would NEVER have left Kiev, Kherson and the northern front if_they_had_not_been_forCED_to_do_so.
Why do you think that is, because Ukraine has done a bit poorly?
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Then I think Ukraine fights mostly in company size with assigned platoon armor/mech in up to brigade-level combat. To lock yourself on logistics, more armor, fuel etc. I think is thinking Russian doctrine. The soldiers need stew, NLAW and 5.56 and then smaller amounts of fuel for the three tanks.
This is enough to attack dug-in Russians too, infiltrate, strike logistics, drone away dug-in tanks and attack at night with company size. I interpret it as Ukraine can run this over large areas and then it becomes for Russian staffs like a gigantic “whack-a-mole” that they never manage to hit.
00:30
Look at the map of the Kiev encirclement and you will see that Ukraine has direct fire on the Ivankiv – Kiev road, so all Russian troops south of Ivankiv are trapped and it is only a matter of time before they give up.
Now the units north of the encirclement have retreated into Belarus, so they are not even trying to break the encirclement, which I think is quite cold-hearted even for the Russians…
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-34-summary/