10:06
Jumping on Solros2022’s last post in the thread yesterday. It is Russia that will attack first in Donbass (they are probably already attacking but the “spring offensive” is what they initiate), this gives Ukraine the strategic advantage to defend itself and wait for the right moment for a counterattack.
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Step one should reasonably be to try with all available means to strike these military convoys now moving towards Donbass both from Russia and as redeployments from the northern front and to strike at logistics. There are explosions now and then in Rostov-Na-Don and now in Belgorod so it seems to be happening. Large-scale infiltration and strikes against headquarters are also happening, all the dead generals are probably a good sign that the entire West’s SOF is working overtime in the international legion (rumors of French SOF in Mariupol by the way).
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Step two is that the Ukrainian line does not collapse, most of Ukraine’s heavy mechanized and armored brigades are east of the Dnieper and signal a willingness not to give up Ukraine east of the Dnieper, they were previously in reserve west of the Dnieper. In the northern part of the ceasefire line the new line will likely be Kramatorsk/Slovyansk eastward to Sieverodonetsk and they hold everything south of that. Since it is Russia we are talking about here, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk will become the same gigantic flytraps as Kiev and Kharkov but a worst-case scenario is that the ceasefire line collapses and then an impassable line for the Russians is Dnipro-Pavlograd-Trotske with static defensive fighting and eastward towards Donetsk and then southward for mobile defensive fighting, there it stops in a worst-case scenario.
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Now to the domino effect, west of Kiev is soon cleared, that frees maybe 10 brigades to start striking northeast up to Kharkov which in turn frees maybe 6-7 brigades in Kharkov to strike eastward. Already today the 4th Tank brigade and 92nd Mechanized are moving towards, if one may guess, Kupiansk which is a strategically important junction that cuts off all Russian units west of the Oskil river.
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Something I haven’t figured out but which maybe is part of the plan is that the Russians are still transferring reinforcements west of the Dnieper near Kherson and there is much talk about Mykolaiv being in a bad position (pro-Russian triumphant sources). Here it is enough to precision bomb 3 times and then 6-7 BTGs of Russia’s elite units + quite a large number of special forces, reconnaissance, Spetsnaz, etc. are partly denied retreat but above all zero new logistics and can be defeated over time.
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The latest is probably that “tanks are days away from being delivered to Ukraine”, advanced artillery is on the way, IFVs in all forms – both Western and BMP-1, precision weapons, advanced air defense, drones and aircraft are probably allowed now? Ukraine is well on its way to getting a full refit here and they have had 900,000 reservists who have had a month to mobilize. Added to that are probably all the tankers that can be procured in the EU, ammunition, food, hospital resources, etc.
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If you ask me, Ukraine’s endgame is to reclaim all its territory if they can and that they are prepared to fight for it. Presumably a no-fly zone is prepared if Ukraine is forced into a broad retreat from the old ceasefire line, it will be possible to turn Western citizens to change the image of Putin and Russia with all these films of mass murder. If China starts sulking, let them do it, a Russian victory in Ukraine is more dangerous for the West.
10:39
This might be the blog that broke the ice on the genocide and gets the media to follow. Today LW is alone in posting these films but it will probably come during the week.
Mariupol is probably ground zero when it comes to the atrocities. Since the Russians are stupid, pro-Russian channels post films of absolute piles of dead outside hospitals where doctors run around calling it “Nazi Ukrainian murders”. This can be investigated quite easily since Ukrainian doctors are seen in the films… One will probably feel faint when hearing the loss figures in Mariupol eventually.
10:49
I think Poland has been ready to roll into Ukraine and east of Belarus had tried to move south, it probably would not have been possible to stop them because they are next in line if Ukraine had capitulated. Same with a no-fly zone, Poland would have thrown in its Air Force over Ukraine if needed. Zelensky probably knows this. Then the Belarusian army through informal channels has probably confirmed to Ukraine’s counterpart that they will not leave Belarus. That would be if Russia now builds up a large force in Belarus again but right now they are moving what they can eastward and the rest is probably in such bad shape that they will refuse a new march order 🙂
11:42
The video below of a Javelin kill I have seen on some pro-Russian site as a “drone kill and Ukrainian armor”, they are truly shameless…
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1510214857928368135?cxt=HHwWjoCz1a2arvUpAAAA
11:47
I have a bit of difficulty accepting the information below,
https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1510200015628775427
“Ukraine’s military: up to 75 Russian battalion tactical groups involved in the Ukraine campaign, up to 34 BTGs are being restored, 16 BTGs have been totally destroyed.”
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Ukrainian source reduces the number of BTGs the Russians have deployed in Ukraine to 75, that’s about 45,000 men?
There was talk of 190,000 in combat units, right?
The reason I’m curious is how the force ratios are today, does Russia have a ready reserve of 190,000 – 45,000 in a second echelon we don’t know about?
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I don’t think so because already after two weeks the Russians had deployed 75% of all available BTGs they mobilized for the peacekeeping operation.
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I realize I am completely wrong here but I can’t reconcile the above communiqué with the number of destroyed vehicles and dead and wounded Russians, the numbers rather suggest +80 completely wiped-out BTGs just in personnel and the number of IFVs is close to 2000 today.
13:13
West of the Dnieper near Kherson the Russians still seem to be advancing towards Krivoy Rog, more areas are contested and they are taking settlements. I am leaning more and more towards this being positive for Ukraine as the Russians divert units from the southern front and send them on this pointless mission which in the end is probably to try to take Odessa?
The risk is huge that they get trapped.
It would be really fun if Ukraine rushed down east of the Dnieper and took the bridges over the Dnieper that way but we are not there yet.
13:15
What would happen if Scandinavia, Europe, Japan, Australia, NATO initiated general mobilization?
They are extremely open about this and the media is filming so the cameras are blazing but no other information is given?
Do you think Russia would tie themselves in knots and start sending units all across Russia and then when they reach Vladivostok and Murmansk they call off the mobilization.
13:27
One might wonder what this is but it looks like a German stick grenade, panzerfaust, cavalry sabers and old Mauser or Russian equivalents?
Hardly could be a Ukrainian SOF captured here but rather some farmer who had this in the attic?
https://twitter.com/spriter99880/status/1510529903288098818
15:07
Do you remember when the whole world wrote that Kiev would fall within “a few days”.
Over a month later the Russians have fled the entire northern front.
Motivating slideshow,
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1510513429504835586?cxt=HHwWhIC-ocH9tfYpAAAA
15:10
Germany has announced that they will provide offensive weapons to Ukraine after the terrible videos from Bucha.
You understand why they have to go out in the media, it gives Western leaders room to act and support Ukraine more. There will be parliamentary debates and they will try to outdo each other in what they give between the parties.
Now the avalanche is underway and what Ukraine has not yet received they will soon get, they might be rolling around in Abrams soon 🙂
17:32
I would like your comments on this, weren’t Russian banks already cut off from Swift?
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1510595914083225600?cxt=HHwWgMCyod–2_YpAAAA
18:38
It will probably get worse than this unfortunately but this is absolutely incredible how it could have gone so fast, these are not soldiers who degrade to this behavior over time, it is rather that they have been given the chance to act out. Chechens of course…
https://twitter.com/AntonDykyi/status/1510623012952887301
18:45
We have probably only seen the beginning of this mass extermination so far, in southern Ukraine it is probably worst and there is a long time left until it is exposed.
Regarding Bucha, the usual Kremlin apologists in the West are out trying to discredit the massacre as a Western psyops.
What is most worrying is that this has happened in a month, a month ago the girl who was raped and murdered in front of her mother was playing on the playground in the city that is leveled to the ground, so there has been no escalation at all but went from 0 to 100 in a few days.
Now there is only one way forward, take back all Ukrainian territory and bring down Putin and his leadership and try to make something more sensible of Russia. If China obstructs, well, let them do that.
18:57
There are many anecdotes now, so that it becomes some kind of normal state, about exiled Russians who either deny or support Russia’s war when confronted. It is probably upset Europeans asking Russians in their vicinity. Much hatred in Ukrainian media from Russians accusing them of fake etc. Etc. The problem is quite big if a whole population is affected Germany 1939 style.
20:14
If you evacuate damaged IFVs by train from Belarus, you at least don’t have unlimited wagons standing in storage 🙂
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1510659354344755202?cxt=HHwWhMC4hbqr-PYpAAAA
20:26
Check this, there are 4,000 defenders in Mariupol, not 20,000 as we probably guessed. That they hold out is somewhat incredible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Mariupol
20:34
Now maybe Biden’s outburst that Putin should be removed is not so catastrophic anymore, the old senile man stands more correctly in history than most other world leaders right now, the US is driving weapons deliveries, has intel, surely has a lot of covert operations going on and Biden has demanded Putin’s resignation 🙂
21:35
It is not easy to be Ukrainian, in the homeland you are mass murdered and as a refugee women and children are easy victims.
Now it is easy to be a keyboard warrior after a beer or two but I feel that Ukrainians should get saint status and always be welcomed in the West after this. Sure there are rogues also in Ukraine but if the whole EU pools its hospitality one can at least mitigate this armageddon that the country is currently experiencing.
09:35
Have now scoured the media and few have “Russian mass murder” on their front pages with piles of dead civilians. The searcher can of course find an article in AB where they describe in words the bound dead on the road in the village near Kiev. The media were very quick to post the entire film where Russian soldiers in Ukrainian uniforms shot Ukrainian soldiers in Russian uniforms in the knees and called it “Ukrainian war crimes” and some other nice things.
The films one reluctantly sees are enormous and why the media does not post all these to turn opinion against Putin is not entirely clear to me but surely you in the thread have better insight.
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If I may guess, I think Russia has committed enough murders in Ukraine for the West to keep the sanctions until the entire leadership sits in The Hague, however long that may take unless China manages to create some kind of alliance (trade) with Russia and gets away with it so Putin et al. can play dictator a little longer.