08:41
Now the media has caught on and is showing some images/videos and describing it with the correct terminology. It bothers me a bit that the impression is given that it only concerns Bucha but at least it’s a start.
Now the citizens will demand tougher measures and politicians will have full freedom to outdo each other in more weapons, harsher sanctions, and tougher rhetoric.
Now also Kremlin-paid individuals in the West will be forced to act against the tide and then they will be exposed which is perfect.
08:55
Mariupol, this is the first piece of information that militaryland’s sitrep has given; “Ukrainian forces still control the part of Azovstal plant, the southern area near harbor and the northern parts”.
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So there are 4000 defenders who have been completely cut off for almost a month. If you take historical battles like Stalingrad or Leningrad reinforcements poured in and they won at enormous losses. That the Russians have not managed to overrun the defenders is somewhat incredible and if I may guess, the regular Russian units are not so keen on urban combat but send forward the Chechens and DPR rebels. The first week there were reports of 200 tanks heading towards Mariupol and they have fired everything they have, TOS-1, MLRS, naval artillery, the heaviest land-based artillery, air, ballistic, etc.
09:07
As we have guessed for a while, the Russians started having difficulty getting supplies through Belarus and there have been several explosions in and around Belgorod which has probably been a major hub for supplies one can guess.
As someone pointed out yesterday, the offensive in the south is more on Russia’s terms logistically, shorter distances, their territory, etc. and it is actually Ukraine that has the short end of the stick in logistics.
Now this basically just means that Ukraine must increase drone, air, and SOF attacks on logistics and the sluice gates seem to have opened regarding materiel just right before the offensive starts.
10:31
Yes, it seems that Ukraine as a country did not expect this merciless violence against the country, the citizens had not fled on a large scale before the invasion and stayed after the Russians rolled in and now members of parliament withdrew from publishing the testimony because they thought it was an exaggeration.
11:49
11:01 LW has been quite consistent that the Russians always lie but when they are supposed to “liberate Ukraine from Nazis in a special operation” and get caught on camera giving the Hitler salute and rampaging like the worst SS unit, you start to wonder if they thought this through.
Even the FSB should in their analyses have counted on there being certain red lines for the West and the rape of children must also have been understood to trigger a backlash?
Now we already know it was planned to hit the Ukrainians hard so the idea was probably, roll over the country as liberators and unleash terror when it’s too late for the West to intervene whose citizens are terrified that the gas will be cut off and then lie through the following years until the West forgets Ukraine and it becomes business as usual – a lovely way to restore the Russian empire with only Poland, the Baltics, and Finland missing.
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This will not end well for Russia, first offensive 2.0 will end as badly as round 1 and then Ukraine will take back all its territory including Crimea because now the West probably understands what has been unleashed and that a draw is no longer an option.
Then sanctions will continue until everyone who has committed war crimes is sitting on a stool in The Hague and just with what we know there must be a few thousand people which will multiply many times before this is over.
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Never will the Ukrainian man/woman allow a draw here, if Zelensky starts to waver which he has not done it is probably impossible to stop the soldiers in the field anyway. There is likely a queue of a couple of million begging to be taken up into fighting units so they can get a shot at a Russian before it’s over.
12:08
Now we have a Ukrainian defense force of 300,000 in fighting units + 900,000 reserves in various stages of mobilization (+ all others who want to fight), a motivation that must be galactic after these genocides have become publicly known and open doors to the West’s weapon depots – take your pick.
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Russia has taken astronomical losses in manpower and materiel in what they have mobilized which must be the best they had. Sure, there are some active reserves now being transported forward but after that it is presumably inexperienced and unmotivated reserve manpower and third-rate armor that will be put into combat. According to previous knowledge, we know they will be put into combat as they arrive and above all they will not train the troops enough, it will be a weapon in hand and straight to the front and shooting range for Ukraine.
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Yesterday we learned that Russian commanders have problems getting some units going around Izyum and the Donbass rebels have probably been overused by now, it was fun as long as it was just playing king over civilians in Donbass.
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As we said yesterday, first the Russians will now attack with everything they have and Ukraine has the advantage of being able to wait and await the optimal moment for a counteroffensive. Since these are the Russians, flanks will be left wide open, supply depots will be signposted and they will go straight for the forts Kramatorsk and Slovyansk which are probably formidable spiky hedgehogs by now. When the opportunity arises I think it will go really fast to roll up what is left in Donbass and then Crimea is probably a tougher nut to crack but when they hear stories about how prisoners are treated in Donbass it will probably be a mass exodus over the Katyn bridge eastwards, women and children last. Maybe this in their media – “Hi Crimea, we will blow up the bridge over Katyn in 1 week and then invade Crimea, all Russian soldiers left will be tried by court-martial”.
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There are probably not many Western leaders who see a draw as an option after this and Poland should be right on the edge of entering the match. Even if Finland is not considering it, they have probably had a couple of heated discussions about alternatives where what is preferable has come up – Ukrainian loss or victory with Finnish help.
12:34
Now I’m stealing a bit from Arvid22 but what does the escalation look like in the coming month, do we think,
1-all weapons and vehicles in the West’s arsenal that Ukraine requests.
2-field hospitals and engineering units staffed by the West in western Ukraine.
3-Establishment of “safe zones” between Lviv and Kiev for refugees where barracks and canteens staffed by Western soldiers are set up.
4-A “humanitarian mission” in western Ukraine, securing the border with Belarus and up to the Dnipro and maintaining order which frees up Ukrainian reserves in western Ukraine to reinforce the front.
5-this is probably where it stops unless Ukraine is about to lose, then there will be a no-fly zone and they can no longer hold back the Poles.
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Exactly under whose direction, UN, NATO or EU we will probably see but if you play your cards better than Putin we will probably be here within a month. Eastern Ukraine will become a bloodbath that Ukraine handles themselves until all Ukrainian territory is retaken and all civilians evacuated west of the Dnipro.
13:30
At 13:25 I saw it and interpret it as the cat is now out of the bag. EVERY Western journalist who dares to travel wants to be first with the next scoop and there will be a flood of graphic descriptions and images in all media within a few days. Those who do not dare to leave their city will scour the internet for stories which they repost and describe in their own words. The spread will be once in a lifetime.
16:10
Putin has really managed to do exactly everything wrong but I understand what the plan was and there are a couple of small events that caused the failure. One was that China asked Russia to wait until the Olympics were over so all soldiers sold gasoline and food for alcohol and the roads became muddy and they only got halfway. The second mistake was to roll into some kind of peacekeeping-we-are-going-to-get-flowers formation, some believing that the FSB had paid their bribes but not even bribes can the Russians manage :). And the last was to spread the attack over, I guess, the longest front in history and get drawn like flies to the fortified cities instead of encircling and striking deep and following up with a second wave.
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If Russia had gone all in against all terrain east of the Dnieper and focused on encircling the old ceasefire line, Zelensky would probably today have had to choose between peace or 200,000 Ukrainian soldiers getting shot in the back of the head.
Now it is lucky that Putin is the bungler of the century with hubris who has played all his cards in a crushing defeat that is a geopolitical atomic bomb that will throw them back to Tsarist times development-wise, which was probably not what Putin had in mind when he wanted to restore Tsarist Russia.
Ukraine will be rebuilt and they will become an important country in the EU, not least because together with Finland, Poland and the Baltics they are our eastern border.
16:38
Victor Orban is a bit funny, he seems not to have understood that Russia suffered a crushing defeat but criticizes Ukraine, Zelensky and refuses to go hard against Putin. Hungary is too small to handle that so very clumsy of him.
Poland’s reputation is restored because of this which is good, I have never understood why Poland was criticized.
17:38
And today, April 4, 2022, Russia lost the propaganda war 🙂
Bucha is just the beginning and the world’s best PR people will be at Ukraine’s disposal to get the genocide out so it strikes the right chord. I don’t believe for a second that Zelensky played pale when he saw the corpses, I would probably have stood there crying heavily but it sends a strong signal and what the Russians then do is go out big and claim that Ukraine is lying with a picture of a very angry Lavrov, epic.
17:51
According to pro-Russian sources it seems they will attack Kharkiv again. Considering the huge losses the Russians have taken there, it is highly welcome if they try again. Now the Ukrainian defense has had a long enough respite to restore, rest, feed, reinforce and re-equip their soldiers around Kharkiv so it will be exactly the same concrete wall again and one can only hope that the civilians have now left the city for western Ukraine.
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We don’t know how the defense looks but if Ukraine could move towards Kupiansk much would be gained but it might be too exposed a northern flank for them after Marynivka. The Russians are not stupid enough not to understand that Kharkiv is a threat to their western flank in the extent down to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk and probably have that in their planning.
20:06
Our time’s Hitler, World War II and the invasion of Poland have just played out. Europe’s leaders are about as slow as then and many hope it ends with Ukraine, Germany mostly thinks it is annoying that Ukraine does not give up.
The difference is that Putin only had one strong army on paper then as the country is thoroughly corrupt and ran an Afghan war and they attacked Ukraine which has trained like the worst triathlete for 8 years and just waited for this.
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It makes me think how much is coincidence that it turns out as it does, Hitler probably could have gotten stuck in France already but he had outrageous luck which you cannot say about Putin who has managed to make every mistake possible. In the long run this is bloody enough for the EU to wake up from its slumber and realize that the world has changed and I think that is enough to pacify China. Maybe we will avoid our time’s great war?
23:21
Mariupol, good question I also think they look clean in the face for 3 weeks of constant fighting.
The uniforms are quite dirty.
We will probably know in a few days if Mariupol falls.
A marine battalion is 750 soldiers so these heroes have then taken close to 70% losses, no lack of fighting spirit there.
Of 4000 defenders there are then fewer than 1000 left in the fight if losses are even.
Azov will probably get no mercy unfortunately, really the Russians should fire a salute when these heroes march out but this is not a normal army.
23:29
I think it is the northern pocket that has then fallen, Azovstal and the port remain, both of which are easy to defend.
08:36
Konotop was marked as Russian on some maps so it’s great that they managed a Mariupol-style encirclement and were liberated.
I thought there would be some encirclements south of Chernihiv – Sumy but the Russians seem to have withdrawn with losses, or maybe the encirclements now mean no prisoners are taken?
Important for Ukraine to secure the entire northern front again which they of course will do as soon as they can.