16:50
Yes, one of them will probably go off when the offensive gets stuck, but the reaction will not come, and what will he do then, start firing more tactical nuclear weapons or gas some village?
The second a tactical nuke goes off, all the media worldwide will scream that Putin is the first since Hiroshima, they will be thrown out of the Security Council, the last little trade that is conducted will be stopped, and if there is any nephew of an oligarch who still has money, it will be frozen.
If he launches something more potent against a city in Europe, it will be shot down; the US must almost be counting on this?
16:51
China voted on Russia’s side at the UN and has shown some news footage in China where they promote Russia’s narrative. China is not as neutral as we might have been led to believe here, but reportedly they refused to meet Shoigu.
Not even this year’s hairstyle Kim Jong Un dared to be photographed with him.
17:21
From a pro-Russian site, it seems the defenders have managed quite well then as they were around 4,000 to begin with.
”In the south, RF have blockaded Ugledar and Novomikhailovka, and begun storming the latter. Also, Basurin has estimated 3,000 to 3,500 enemy fighters remain in Mariupol. And the map there looks something like this”
13:39
Russia has probably managed to scrape together something like what they invaded with when they now reinforce with inexperienced and unmotivated reserves, but they are concentrating forces against Kharkiv and Donbass and gaining local superiority – taking the pocket north of Horlivka and pushing south from Izyum to encircle the stalemate line. Then, for some unfathomable reason, they have elite BTGs near Kherson, 6-7-8 or something like that. Their total number of BTGs probably does not exceed what the blog writes, and then they have TikTok Chechens, OMON, Rosgvardia, Syrians, and Donbass rebels, but all of them have been fighting continuously for a month and are probably quite worn out. Then you probably have to count out 15-20 BTGs that will refuse orders. There is still too much artillery and air support.
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Against this stands Ukraine with brigades of 200,000 + 100,000 (army and national battalions/national guard) and 900,000 reservists who are in various stages of mobilization, so I guess they have intact maneuver units of around 300,000 men and a lot of infantry in various compositions that can defend cities and flanks. High combat value, combat experience, refitted with new well-maintained equipment, but east of the Dnipro they do not have air superiority and not enough air defense to deny the Russians air superiority. Their elite brigades, mechanized, armored, airborne, marines, mountain troops have likely received replacement personnel and the command structure/experience has not been wiped out, so they have maintained combat value, and the brigades that have been moved from west of the Dnipro to the east have probably received new equipment.
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There is a reserve of 10 heavy brigades west of the Dnipro that Ukraine can deploy on any front. East of Kharkiv there are 5 heavy brigades, and along the southern front and the stalemate line there is a larger number of heavy brigades participating in the defense; currently, there are no direct reserves there.
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Now, the Russians are just Russians, so the new black of this offensive will be an absolutely massive artillery bombardment where old favorites like wiping out a kilometer square on the map will be reused, and the air force will go all in. Then they will try to push towards Kharkiv, which will come to a complete stop, push south from Izyum, which will go terribly when fuel and meat soup run out, and then take the pocket/bow north of Horlivka, which might succeed. In parallel with this, they will probably be rampaging around Kherson until it becomes untenable and they try to retreat, and then the TikTok Chechens run around Mariupol taking Instagram videos; holding the city would be desirable.
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Within a maximum of 2 weeks after the start, an opportunity will arise and Ukraine will strike. Kherson will be encircled or there will be a flight across the Dnipro, all terrain east of Kharkiv – north of Horlivka will be retaken, and the southern front will collapse down to Crimea (depending somewhat on where the reserve brigades are deployed).
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Then Ukraine faces the choice of whether to retake Crimea and Donbass or not, and if you ask me, a total victory over Russia is needed to restore order, but it is up to Ukraine how many losses they are prepared to take; it is quite easy to point fingers as a keyboard warrior when you are not risking a bullet in the gut.