11:22
I interpret the Wikipedia map as showing that Malynivka has now been recaptured by Ukraine. According to earlier discussion, it was an obstacle on the way to Kupiansk, which is the supply hub for Belgorod – Kupiansk – Izyum, and as mentioned, it is enough to get within range for indirect fire and drones for Ukraine to deny the offensive at Izyum supply.
North of the Kharkiv – Kupiansk axis there are more rivers, so the terrain is easy to defend with the National Guard reinforced with armor. We will see, but it would be quite funny if the entire Izyum offensive ran out of fuel and meat soup.
11:26
The pocket north of Horlivka can be used by Ukraine for mobile delaying combat and straighten the line to Kramatorsk/Slovyansk if needed without it being a strategic loss. If Putin claims victory for that small worthless gain, let him do so. Borova is still contested, so the supply for the Izyum offensive is in bad shape.
11:32
The area the Russians have now chosen for continued fighting is an advantage for Russia. Longer supply lines for Ukraine and more open terrain.
They cannot achieve a strategic decision, but the bunker dwarf will try to claim victory if they manage to take the bulge north of Horlivka, which is almost embarrassing 🙂
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Ukraine is hitting hard at Belgorod, which is the supply hub for the entire offensive, and trying to cut off supplies by taking Kupiansk and Borova, which is smart. Then there will probably be much more air defense going forward, and step by step the Russians will be denied air superiority there as well.
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If Mariupol can just hold out, the Russian balloon will deflate quite quickly; at Kherson, it is only a matter of time before they either retreat or get trapped – if you ask me, it suits Ukraine well that Putin wastes elite BTGs west of the Dnipro, and when the offensive crashes in Donbass, Ukraine will probably take back everything north of Horlivka in a few weeks again, Kiev-style.
Donbass itself is a bit trickier and Crimea even harder; it probably depends on how much Ukraine feels like fighting, but for the world, it would be good if Putin is thrown out of all of Ukraine, and that is also the rhetoric from the US right now—it is tough.
13:32
The Russians are truly disgusting; they are now shelling all evacuation points where civilians gather…
A reflection from me is that we have been reactive and now we are really pissed off, but that does not mean fewer Ukrainians die.
The West should probably take with them that this is what a Russian and a Chinese person are like and treat the countries accordingly to avoid a round two.
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Then I want to point out that once again the US has saved the free world just like in WW1 and WW2 because they have trained Ukraine’s defense to this level and are now driving the sending of materiel to Ukraine. If this had been left to the EU, we would still be discussing exactly how to write the condemnation, and many would have hoped that Ukraine would just give up so we could avoid all the headache.
13:34
Joe Biden may be on the verge of acute senility, but he was the first to demand Putin’s resignation; he almost seemed to perk up for a second there, and he deserves credit for that.
13:39
The 128th Mountain Brigade has arrived in Luhansk; I can’t find where it was previously stationed. Can one guess that it is the first of the brigades from Kiev and southwest of Kiev that have now been sent to Donbass? A serious capability increase with 5,000–6,000 elite soldiers!
13:47
I was wrong; it has been located southwest of Kharkiv before, so absolutely Ukraine has managed to move its better units east now.
This is an assault brigade with mechanized infantry and armor and an elite unit. It was previously located outside Kharkiv, so it should be in good shape.
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Here you can read about it, combat experience from the Donbass conflict.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/128th_Mountain_Assault_Brigade_(Ukraine)#Current_structure
Equivalent to about 5-6 Russian elite BTGs, so a real capability boost 🙂
13:50
Yes, exactly that, the US saves us in WW1, WW2, the Cold War, Ukraine 2022, and eventually China, and because they are a democracy, everyone throws shit at them and praises Russia and China.
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I have always said that we in the West do best under US rule and that living under Russians or Chinese would be hell for us, and that seems to be true..
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It was Biden who first asked for Putin to be removed and the US who trained Ukraine’s army to what it is today; without the US, Ukraine would be a Russian puppet colony today.
13:52
What absolute assholes to broadcast this on state TV!!!
Russia claims Mariupol has fallen because they took the city hall, but Ukraine controls Azovstal, the port, and another residential area, and it is a huge area, and the soldiers are energetic enough to post videos about how okay they are.
It is damn incredible how SVT has acted in this war; one is ashamed as a Swede. This kind of thing goes viral, and the Russians post in all Ukrainian forums what Western TV says as truth, so it is deadly dangerous to write such things.
13:52
What absolute assholes to broadcast this on state TV!!!
Russia claims Mariupol has fallen because they took the city hall, but Ukraine controls Azovstal, the port, and another residential area, and it is a huge area, and the soldiers are energetic enough to post videos about how okay they are.
It is damn incredible how SVT has acted in this war; one is ashamed as a Swede. This kind of thing goes viral, and the Russians post in all Ukrainian forums what Western TV says as truth, so it is deadly dangerous to write such things.
13:56
In pro-Russian media, it has now been written that the Tochka-U parts found in Kramatorsk prove that it is a missile that Ukraine had and that it is a Ukrainian psyops. It is a shameless and very effective psyops to accuse the Ukrainians of their own crimes.
14:01
Report from Mariupol, strength 🙂
“Azov Regiment released a video of its BTR-4 attacking Russian tanks on the western outskirts. The video might be a day or two old, but it shows Ukrainian forces have still operational heavy equipment in the city with enough ammunition.”
16:46
Maybe Gotland should be fortified properly with bunker systems and cast fortifications and huge minefields?
With today’s missile systems, a fortified Gotland would deny the Russians the Swedish coast up to Stockholm even without a navy, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to revive the Gotland Brigade?
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I agree with everyone else that air force, missiles, submarines, corvettes, etc., are priorities. A well-armed home guard can get you far, a couple of armored brigades (Strf-90 seems to be enough…) to knock out landing attempts, and the Norrland Rangers can delay Russian columns forever if they get through Finland by land.
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Digging in the supply lines seems to be the answer as well, and air defense against ballistic missiles.
16:57
I am barely literate 🙂 but we constantly have this discussion and it is the subtle message, maybe the title of the article or how the article begins. When you write MARIUPOL and HAS FALLEN in the same sentence it gives a message. SVT could just as well have written MARIUPOL HOLDS OUT and then the message you receive would have been different, right?
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The problem is that pro-Russian sites take all these articles and post exactly as the message says, so today SVT has probably been circulated on Ukrainian media with the help of pro-Russian psyops who write that “Swedish media confirms that Mariupol has fallen”.
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Do you understand my point here, it is a demoralizing message and LW is sticking firmly to this line but our media can’t handle it.
18:20
I know I get a bit fixated on this with brigades but on the western flank of the Izyum offensive the following elephants are lurking, 17th Tank brigade, 25th Airborne brigade, 81st Airmobile brigade.
If I had to guess, they are staying in the forested area that runs up towards Kharkov.
Then we have the 92nd Mechanized and 4th Tank brigades pushing straight east towards Kupiansk with a presumed flank protection to the north by the national guards.
Now that Borova is contested, if they push towards Kupiansk and then strike with the three aforementioned brigades straight east, it could get really lively for the Russians, flank protection is probably not their specialty and it will become chaos.
Now we know that Russian air superiority denies the Ukrainians that but this is a blow waiting for the right moment and then they have basically liberated the whole area north of Luhansk because all Russian attack directions are southwards and this will be a torpedo straight into the side of the hull.
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The Ukrainian brigades in the arc north of Horlivka will conduct their mobile delaying battle until the Russians are suitably worn out and the fuel is gone and then they will probably strike when they have gotten enough air defense.
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Then there are, if I have counted correctly, 10 elite brigades around Kiev still, mechanized, armored, mountain and airborne and it is enough with National Guards + some allocated armor to defend the northern front so these brigades can either be sent to Kherson or Zaporizhzhia and there is no chance the Russians would survive such a blow, maybe the southern front is on that march order and they close the bridges by advancing west of the Dnieper 🙂
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These brigades are probably undergoing a full refit right now with donated T72s, IFVs, artillery, air defense and personnel and have around 100% combat value when deployed, 6000 men X 10… Donetsk and Crimea will probably fall just by momentum when that steamroller starts but as said, it is important to get at the Russians’ air superiority because a brigade on the move can suffer catastrophic losses in a few hours if they don’t have an effective air defense screen.
18:21
It should say advancing east of the Dnieper…
18:26
You can really see how the bunker dwarf gets all worked up the first week when all Russian units advance and take some villages and then pale and sweaty communications officers come in stammering battle reports and he starts holding his stomach and grimacing. If you ask me, this spring offensive will be Putin’s downfall, after that he will be deposed Russian style because then the humiliation is absolutely total.
19:11
Yep, partly they have to wait for the right moment but it is the Russians who attack so Ukraine has that advantage and then break Russian air superiority with air defense or a secretly refitted air force. Now that tanks are the new normal, fighter jets are not forbidden and Poland wanted to donate a few hundred?
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If west of Kiev is safe from Russian air, you can deploy quite far forward but yes, a brigade on the move is a really juicy target even if you have to assume the Ukrainians “swarm” rather than drive in column on a road Russian style.
11:17
The videos from Mariupol now show ethnic Russian units, not the TikTok Chechens or DPR rebels, so the pressure there has clearly increased. However, the area that Ukraine is defending is the easiest to defend and still a large area.
With some luck, the Russians have run out of TOS-1, but there is chatter about “bunker busters,” the same ones the US used in Afghanistan and Iraq. As long as Mariupol holds out, it ties down troops and prevents the rolling up of the ceasefire line from the south, which is strategically important, and of course Ukraine knows that. There is also chatter about “foreign participation,” and if you ask me, Western SOF have been in Ukraine all along, and since Mariupol is so important, surely they are there too, which is good—they are not alone.